This is part two of a two-part series on polarization in America. This post focuses on the systemic causes of polarization that result from our country’s political structure. Over the past few years, we have witnessed profound political polarization, the emergence of what many see as a radical right and left, and an insurrection that […]
The 2022 Elections in Arizona
In the campaign for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly edges Republican Blake Masters among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Kelly’s advantage has narrowed among the statewide electorate since September. Kelly is currently +4 points against Masters among registered voters statewide, down from the 10-point lead he enjoyed earlier. In the Arizona governor’s contest, just 1 point separates Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake among those who say they definitely plan to vote. This is a 4-point shift from September when Lake had a 3-point edge against Hobbs. Hobbs is also +1 point over Lake among registered voters statewide.
The 2022 Elections in Georgia
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are tied among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters, Warnock edges Walker by 4 points. The contest has experienced little movement among both definite voters and registered voters since late September. In Georgia’s gubernatorial contest, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 8 points among definite voters and 6 points among registered voters statewide.
The 2022 Elections in Pennsylvania
In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz. Fetterman has a 6-point lead over Oz among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters statewide, Fetterman also has a 6-point lead. Fetterman was up 7 against Oz among definite voters and up 10 among the statewide electorate in Marist’s September survey. In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Josh Shapiro holds onto his double-digit lead against Republican Doug Mastriano among both definite and registered voters statewide.
2022 Midterm Elections
Although the prospect of a Democratic president and a Republican Congress is a rising concern for many Americans, Republicans now have an edge against the Democrats in the battle for congressional control. According to this national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, the Republican candidates running for Congress are +3 points over the Democrats among voters nationally who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s elections. This marks a 6-point shift from last month when the Democrats were up by 3 points over the Republicans. Democrats face strong headwinds: core voters with lower interest in the election than Republicans; a sitting president whose approval and favorable ratings are underwater; and an American electorate that sees Republicans as better able to handle inflation which tops the list of national concerns.
The 2022 Election in North Carolina
In the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd are tied among registered voters in the state. But, among those definitely planning to vote, Budd has a narrow lead over Beasley.
The 2022 Elections in Ohio
Only one point separates Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio among registered voters. The two are tied among those who say they will definitely vote in November’s election. The Republicans are well-positioned, though, to retain the Ohio statehouse. Republican Governor Mike DeWine leads his Democratic challenger Nan Whaley by 13 points among Ohio registered voters. DeWine retains his advantage over Whaley among those who say they will definitely vote in November.
The 2022 Elections in New York
New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points among New York’s electorate. Her lead narrows to 8 points among those who say they will definitely vote. In New York’s race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer has a commanding double-digit lead, among registered voters, over Republican Joe Pinion. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Schumer is up by 13 points over Pinion.
The 2022 Election in Texas
In the Texas governor’s race, Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott has a 4-point edge over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among registered voters statewide. However, Abbott’s advantage over O’Rourke doubles to 8 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
The 2022 Elections in Colorado
In the race for U.S. Senate in Colorado, Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet has a 7-point advantage over his Republican challenger Joe O’Dea among registered voters statewide. Bennet enjoys a comparable lead among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In Colorado’s gubernatorial contest, Democratic incumbent Jared Polis outpaces Republican Heidi Ganahl by 18 points among registered voters in the state. His lead narrows to 15 points among those who definitely plan to vote.