The 2022 Election in Texas

Marist Texas Poll

Abbott Edges O’Rourke in Texas Governor’s Race

In the Texas governor’s race, Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott has a 4-point edge over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among registered voters statewide. However, Abbott’s advantage over O’Rourke doubles to 8 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

Texas Governor’s Race
In November's election for governor, are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]
Source: Marist Poll Texas Registered Voters. Interviews conducted October 3rd through October 6th, 2022, n=1,058 MOE +/- 4.4 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Four points separate Abbott (49%) and O’Rourke (45%) in the Texas governor’s race among registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Abbott receives majority support (52%) against O’Rourke (44%) among those who say they will definitely vote.

  • O’Rourke (49%) has a 10-point lead over Abbott (39%) among independents.

  • Close to eight in ten Texas registered voters with a candidate preference for governor (78%) strongly support their choice. 81% of O’Rourke’s supporters and 75% of Abbott’s supporters report they are strongly committed to their candidate.

  • Neither Abbott nor O’Rourke are popular among Texans. 43% have a favorable opinion of Abbott while 46% have an unfavorable view. O’Rourke’s favorable rating is 39% while 44% have an unfavorable impression of him. 

  • The Republicans (48%) running for Congress edge the Democrats (44%) on the ballot among Texas registered voters. The Republicans advantage over the Democrats widens to 5 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. 

"Governor Abbott is advantaged by the fact that Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state, and more Republicans than Democrats definitely plan to vote," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "In order to pull off an upset, O’Rourke needs to bank on the greater enthusiasm of his supporters translating into a greater turnout among younger, independent, urban, and suburban voters."

Nearly Three in Ten Consider Inflation Top Voting Issue

28% of Texans say inflation is the most important issue when they think about this November’s elections. Preserving democracy receives 21%. More than one in ten Texans mention abortion (16%), immigration (13%), or health care (10%). Nine percent cite crime.

Inflation (37%) and immigration (25%) are front and center among Republicans. Preserving democracy (30%) and abortion (27%) are the priorities for Democrats. Inflation and preserving democracy each receives 26% among independents.

Confidence Exists in the Election Process

More than seven in ten Texans (73%) are either confident or very confident in their state or local government to run a fair and accurate election this November. Bipartisan agreement exists on this question.

Nearly Half of the Texas Electorate Say They Will Vote Early

48% of registered voters statewide say they plan to vote at an early voting location. 39% plan to cast their ballot on Election Day, and 10% say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.

A majority of Democrats think they will vote at an early voting location while an additional 14% of Democrats say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot. Republicans divide. 46% say they will vote in-person at an early voting location while the same proportion of Republicans (46%) report they will head to the polls on Election Day. A plurality of independents plan to vote at an early voting location. 40% of independents say they prefer to vote on Election Day.

Biden Approval Rating Under Water in Texas

A majority of Texans (53%) disapprove of how President Joe Biden is performing in office. 39% approve. By more than two-to-one, Texans are more likely to strongly disapprove (42%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (18%).