October 13, 2022
The 2022 Elections in New York
Marist New York Poll
Hochul Leading Zeldin in Governor’s Contest
New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points among New York’s electorate. Her lead narrows to 8 points among those who say they will definitely vote. In New York’s race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer has a commanding double-digit lead, among registered voters, over Republican Joe Pinion. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Schumer is up by 13 points over Pinion.
In a poll conducted prior to the shooting in front of Republican Lee Zeldin’s home, New York State Governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul (51%) leads Zeldin (41%) among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Hochul’s (52%) lead over Zeldin (44%) stands at eight points.
67% of registered voters with a candidate preference for governor say they strongly support their choice. 74% of Zeldin’s supporters, compared with 62% of Hochul’s, are firmly committed to their preference.
46% of voters have a favorable opinion of Hochul while 43% have an unfavorable one. 11% have either never heard of Hochul or are unsure how to rate her. Zeldin is not as well known. 36% of New York voters have a favorable impression of Zeldin. 37% have an unfavorable one, and 27% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate him.
In the U.S. Senate contest in New York, Democratic incumbent Charles Schumer (54%) has a wide lead over his Republican challenger, Joe Pinion (34%), among registered voters statewide. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Schumer (52%) has a 13-point advantage against Pinion (39%). 63% of voters with a candidate preference for Senate strongly support their candidate, including 64% of Schumer’s supporters and 60% of Pinion’s backers.
50% of New York voters have a favorable impression of Schumer while 39% have an unfavorable view of him. Pinion is relatively unknown to voters. 65% say they have either never heard of Pinion or are unsure how to rate him. 22% view Pinion favorably, and 12% do not.
Democratic Congressional Candidates with Majority Support
A majority of New York registered voters (54%) support the Democratic candidate running for Congress in their district while 38% back the Republican seeking office. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, 54% support the Democratic candidate while 40% are for the Republican.
"Although Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate lead in very blue New York, the race for governor still bears watching," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Republicans say they are more likely to vote, enthusiasm for Zeldin among his supporters exceeds Hochul’s, and any shift to crime in the closing weeks is likely to benefit Zeldin."
Inflation and Preserving Democracy Top Voting Issues in New York
Nearly three in ten registered voters (28%) say inflation is top of mind when it comes to voting in this November’s election. Preserving democracy (24%) follows closely behind. Crime receives 18% followed by abortion (14%), health care (8%), and immigration (7%).
While inflation is the number-one voting issue among Republicans (42%) and independents (31%), a plurality of Democrats (35%) mention preserving democracy.
More Than Seven in Ten Voters Plan to Head to the Polls on Election Day
71% of registered voters say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. This includes 78% of Republicans, 77% of independents, and 62% of Democrats. 15% of voters statewide plan to cast their ballot at an early voting location, and 12% say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot. Democrats (23%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (10%) to say they will vote at an early voting location.
New York Voters Confident in the Election Process
More than seven in ten registered voters in New York (71%) are either very confident or confident that their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election. 29% have little or no confidence in the process. Democrats (90%) are nearly twice as likely as Republicans (47%) to have trust in New York’s election system. In fact, a majority of Republicans (53%) have little or no confidence in New York to carry out a fair and accurate election.
NY Voters Divide About Biden’s Job Performance
48% of the New York electorate approve of how President Joe Biden is performing in office. 49%, including 16% of Democrats, disapprove. New York voters are more likely to strongly disapprove (37%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (23%).