November 4, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Pennsylvania
Marist Pennsylvania Poll
Fetterman Leads Oz Heading into Final Campaign Weekend... Shapiro with Double-Digit Lead Over Mastriano in Governor’s Race
In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz. Fetterman has a 6-point lead over Oz among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters statewide, Fetterman also has a 6-point lead. Fetterman was up 7 against Oz among definite voters and up 10 among the statewide electorate in Marist’s September survey. In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Josh Shapiro holds onto his double-digit lead against Republican Doug Mastriano among both definite and registered voters statewide.
Fetterman (51%) leads Oz (45%) by 6 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this month’s election. Among registered voters, Fetterman (50%) is ahead of Oz (44%) by 6 points.
Fetterman (46%) has a 9-point advantage over Oz (37%) among independents, down from 22 points in September. The gender gap has more than doubled from 12 to 25-points. Among women, Fetterman receives 55% to 37% for Oz. Men back Oz (51% for Oz to 44% for Fetterman).
67% of registered voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate. Fetterman’s supporters (72%) are more likely than Oz’s backers (62%) to express a firm level of commitment to their candidate.
45% of Pennsylvania residents have a favorable impression of Fetterman while 43% have an unfavorable one. 11% have either never heard of Fetterman or are unsure how to rate him. Oz’s favorable rating is upside (35% favorable to 52% unfavorable). 13% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Oz.
Democrats (49%) running for Congress in their district edge the Republicans (46%) on the ballot among those who say they definitely plan to vote. Among registered voters statewide, 48% back the Democratic candidate while 46% support the Republican on the ballot. Support among definite voters and registered voters is nearly identical to Marist’s September poll of Pennsylvania.
"In the battle for the majority in the U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania is the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a seat," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "If Oz can close the gap with the Election Day vote, it will be a big step for Republican control of the Senate."
Shapiro Outpacing Mastriano in Governor’s Contest
Democrat Josh Shapiro (54%) has majority support and a 14-point lead against his Republican opponent Doug Mastriano (40%) among those who say they will definitely vote. Among registered voters, Shapiro receives 54% to 39% for Mastriano. Shapiro enjoyed a 12-point lead among definite voters and a 13-point lead among registered voters in September.
76% of registered voters with a candidate preference for governor, up from 67% in September, strongly support their candidate. 80% of Shapiro’s supporters, compared with 71% of Mastriano’s backers, are firmly committed to their choice.
49% of Pennsylvania adults have a favorable view of Shapiro, and 31% have an unfavorable one. Impressions of Mastriano are upside down. 32% of Pennsylvanians have a positive view of Mastriano, and 47% have an unfavorable impression of him.
Inflation Remains Key Electoral Issue
36% of Pennsylvania residents consider inflation to be top of mind this election season. Preserving democracy (26%) and the issue of abortion (20%) follow. Crime (8%), health care (5%), and immigration (4%) receive single digits. Inflation, preserving democracy, and abortion were also the top issues in September.
59% of Republicans say inflation is the issue that is the most important this election season. A plurality of Democrats (41%) considers preserving democracy to be the number-one issue. An additional 29% of Democrats say abortion is top of mind. Among independents, 35% say inflation is the key issue this election year while 25% report preserving democracy is the priority.
Pennsylvanians Confident in Electoral System
69% of residents say they are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out a fair and accurate election. 30% lack confidence in the process. While most Democrats (93%) have faith in their state’s electoral process, Republicans divide. 49% are confident while 50% are not.
More than Two in Three Plan to Head to the Polls on Election Day
68% of Pennsylvania registered voters say they will cast their ballots in-person on Election Day. More than one in five have already done so. 20% report they have voted by mail, and 2% say they have voted in-person at an early voting location. Eight percent of registered voters say they have not yet voted but plan to do so prior to Election Day.
Republicans (83%) are more likely than Democrats (59%) and independents (61%) to say they will vote in-person on Election Day.
Biden’s Approval Rating Upside Down
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 42% among Pennsylvania residents. 53% disapprove of how he is doing in office. Pennsylvanians are more likely to strongly disapprove (44%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (17%).