November 4, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Georgia
Marist Georgia Poll
Walker and Warnock Closely Matched in U.S. Senate Race...Kemp Leads Abrams in Georgia Governor’s Race
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are tied among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters, Warnock edges Walker by 4 points. The contest has experienced little movement among both definite voters and registered voters since late September. In Georgia’s gubernatorial contest, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 8 points among definite voters and 6 points among registered voters statewide.
Warnock (48%) and Walker (48%) are evenly matched among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In Marist’s September survey, Warnock was +2 points against Walker. Among Georgia registered voters, Warnock (49%) edges Walker (45%) by 4 points. Warnock (47%) was previously +5 points over Walker (42%) among registered voters in the September poll.
The gender gap has narrowed since September (12 points from 23 points). Men divide (46% for Warnock to 48% for Walker). Warnock (51%) leads Walker (41%) among women. However, Warnock’s support among women has softened. He previously had a 17-point lead among these voters.
77% of registered voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate, up from 70%, say they strongly support their choice. Walker (78% up from 68%) and Warnock (77% notched up from 74%) now enjoy similar intensities of support among their respective backers.
46% of Georgians have a favorable view of Warnock while 45% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Walker’s favorable rating is upside down, 40% favorable to 48% unfavorable.
In the battle for Congress, the Republicans (52%) on the ballot lead the Democratic candidates (44%) among those who say they definitely plan to vote. The Republicans were +7 points over the Democrats in September. Among registered voters statewide, the Republicans receive 49% to 44% for the Democrats. The Georgia GOP previously had a 4-point edge against the Democrats.
"Here we go, again," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "This is a very close Senate contest in Georgia which may, once again, end up a runoff to determine which party controls the Senate."
Kemp Leads Abrams in Governor’s Race
Republican Governor Brian Kemp (53%) leads Democrat Stacey Abrams (45%) by 8 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. Kemp previously had an 11-point lead among these voters in September. Among registered voters, Kemp has the support of 51% to 45% for Abrams. This is comparable to Kemp’s previous 6-point lead among registered voters.
83% of registered voters with a candidate preference for governor say they strongly support their choice, up from 75% in September. 84% of Kemp’s supporters, compared with 82% of Abrams’ backers, say they strongly support their candidate.
56% of residents have a favorable view of Kemp while 34% have an unfavorable impression of him. Abrams’ score is upside down. 44% perceive Abrams favorably while 47% view her unfavorably.
Inflation Remains the Top Voting Issue in Georgia
43% of Georgians say that inflation is top of mind going into Election Day. 18% cite preserving democracy while 15% mention abortion. Responses for crime (9%), health care (9%), and immigration (5%) are in single digits. The top three issues have changed little since September.
Inflation (57%) is the most important voting issue for Republicans. There is little consensus among Democrats. 28% of Democrats mention inflation; 26% cite preserving democracy; and 21% mention abortion. A plurality of independent voters (42%) say inflation is top of mind this election season.
A Majority Have or Plan to Vote Before Election Day
More than four in ten registered voters say they have cast their ballot at an early voting location (36%) or have mailed in their ballot (8%). An additional 20% report they have not done so yet but plan to vote before Election Day. More than one in three registered voters (34%) say they will vote in-person on Election Day. Republicans (40%) are more likely than Democrats (30%) and independents (30%) to say they will cast their ballot on Election Day.
Most Georgia Residents Express Confidence in State’s Electoral System
76% of residents statewide say they are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out a fair and accurate election. 23% express little or no confidence in the process. Most Democrats (85%) and Republicans (75%) believe their state and local officials will administer a fair election.
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down
38% of Georgia residents approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing in office while 56% disapprove. This is little changed from September when 39% approved, and 55% disapproved. Residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (46%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (20%).