November 4, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Arizona
Marist Arizona Poll
Kelly with Slight Edge in Competitive U.S. Senate Race... Hobbs and Lake in Tight Contest for Governor
In the campaign for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly edges Republican Blake Masters among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Kelly’s advantage has narrowed among the statewide electorate since September. Kelly is currently +4 points against Masters among registered voters statewide, down from the 10-point lead he enjoyed earlier. In the Arizona governor’s contest, just 1 point separates Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake among those who say they definitely plan to vote. This is a 4-point shift from September when Lake had a 3-point edge against Hobbs. Hobbs is also +1 point over Lake among registered voters statewide.
Kelly (50%) edges Masters (47%) by 3 points among voters who say they definitely plan to cast a ballot in this year’s election. Kelly had a 5-point lead among these voters in September. Among Arizona registered voters, Kelly (49%) is +4 points over Masters (45%), down from Kelly’s 10-point lead in the previous poll.
Kelly (52%) has a double-digit lead over Masters (36%) among independent voters statewide, comparable to his previous 17-point advantage in September. Kelly maintains majority support among women (54% to 39% for Masters). However, Masters (50%) now tops Kelly (45%) by 5 points among men. Men previously divided (47% for Kelly to 46% for Masters).
76% of registered voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice. 77% of Kelly’s supporters, compared with 75% of Masters’ backers, say they are firmly committed to their choice. The proportion of Masters’ supporters who say they strongly support his candidacy is up from 64% in September.
47% of Arizonans have a favorable view of Kelly, unchanged from September. 43% have an unfavorable opinion of Kelly, and 10% say they have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Masters’ favorable score remains upside down. 38% view Masters favorably, notched up from 32% previously, while an unchanged 48% perceive Masters unfavorably. 13% have either never heard of Masters or are unsure how to rate him.
The Republican candidates (50%) running for Congress have a 4-point edge over their Democratic opponents (46%) among those who say they definitely plan to vote. The Republicans on the ballot had a similar 5-point lead in September. Among registered voters, the Republicans (49%) are +4 points over the Democrats (45%).
"Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor face strong headwinds in Arizona. They have an unpopular Democratic president, a Republican statewide electorate, and the economy as a top of mind issue for many voters," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Right now, they are offsetting these disadvantages by carrying independents and attracting more Republican voters than their opponents are gaining among Democrats. This all adds up to two very close contests."
Hobbs and Lake Competitive in Governor’s Race
Democrat Katie Hobbs (49%) and Republican Kari Lake (48%) are well-matched in Arizona’s gubernatorial contest among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. However, Lake had a 3-point edge against Hobbs (49% to 46%) in September, marking a 4-point shift in support. Among registered voters statewide, Hobbs receives 48% to 47% for Lake. One point separated the two candidates earlier in the fall (46% for Lake to 45% for Hobbs) among the statewide electorate.
76% of registered voters with a candidate preference for governor say they strongly support their candidate. The proportion of Lake’s supporters who say they are firmly committed to her has increased to 84% from 73%. Among Hobbs’ backers, 69% strongly support her now, little changed from 71% in September.
Both Hobbs and Lake receive a lukewarm reception from Arizona residents. 42% have a favorable impression of Hobbs. 44%, up from 36% previously, have an unfavorable view of her. 14% have either never heard of Hobbs or are unsure how to rate her. Like Hobbs, Lake’s negative rating is up. 43% have a favorable opinion of Lake, and 48%, up from 42%, have an unfavorable view of her. 10% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Lake.
Inflation Tops the List of Voting Issues
With just days to go until Election Day, 37% of Arizona residents maintain that inflation is the issue that is top of mind. Preserving democracy (26%), abortion (15%), and immigration (12%) follow. Six percent cite health care, and 4% mention crime. In September, inflation, preserving democracy, abortion, and immigration were also atop the list.
Inflation is paramount for 55% of Republicans while preserving democracy (50%) and abortion (24%) are the key issues for Democrats. Among independents, inflation (38%) and preserving democracy (29%) take the top two spots.
Majority of Arizona Voters Have Already Voted
56% of Arizona voters say they have already voted by mail (52%) or at an early voting location (4%). 14% report they have not voted yet but plan to do so prior to Tuesday. 28% say they will vote in-person on Election Day.
Regardless of party, at least a plurality of voters say they have already voted. However, Democrats are more likely than Republicans and independents to say they have done so.
Many Arizonans Express Confidence in Election Process
More than seven in ten Arizona adults (72%) are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out a fair and accurate election. 27% have little or no confidence in their state’s election system. Democrats (90%) are more likely than Republicans (65%) and independents (68%) to express confidence in their state to carry out a fair election.
Biden Approval Rating Underwater
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating remains upside down in Arizona. 38% of residents approve of his job performance, comparable to 39% in September. A majority (56%) disapprove. Arizona residents are more likely to strongly disapprove (48%) of the president’s job performance than to strongly approve (18%).