The 2015 Jill Carboni Distinguished Service award goes to Alexa Gherlone. Alexa has worked with us since her freshman year and has been a valued member of the Marist Poll team. After demonstrating her excellent interviewing skills, she was quickly promoted to a coach position. Alexa was promoted again her junior year to a head coach position. Alexa has worked nearly 100 nights as a Coach and Head Coach combined. Thanks for all the hard work!
We Should Hang Out More
Movies often serve as perfect time capsules, offering snapshots of what life was like in an earlier time. Take Dazed and Confused. The movie is set in late seventies Texas and focuses on groups of ... Read Now >
News
5/29: 2015 Baccalaureate Award Winner
May 29, 2015
Katie, a double major in History and French, has been an amazing asset at the Marist Poll as an interviewer, Head Coach, and office assistant. Katie has gone above and beyond in her classes, internships, and at the Marist Poll. Her dedication, hard work, and talent have made her a stand out performer. We will miss you Katie!
5/28: Top 10 Reasons Why Polls Should Not be Used to Determine Eligibility for Debates
May 28, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Herding is for horses. Not for pollsters doing horserace polls. Neither should the media herd the field in a political horserace via debates. Why? Here is my take on the…
TOP 10 REASONS WHY POLLS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE ELIGIBILITY FOR DEBATES (OR WHERE’S DAVID LETTERMAN WHEN YOU NEED HIM?)
10. Many candidates will fall within the error margin. Rankings become statistically meaningless.
9.1 Using decimal points makes statistically meaningless rankings even more meaningless.
7.9 – 8.1 Poll strew doesn’t necessarily taste very good. Some polls probe undecided voters to include “leaners,” others don’t. Some polls will be based on “likely” voters, others on registered voters. Poll results also vary when it comes to live or automated modes of data collection, proportion of cell phones vs. landlines, and weighting and analyzing data.
7. More problems. Some national polls take out “undecided” voters and recalculate based upon 100%. This wreaks havoc on averages.
5. Ok. I know I skipped number 6, but, then again, there’s no guarantee all polls will ask all candidates either.
5.1 (Couldn’t figure out where to place this item because it is not actually higher or lower than 5, statistically speaking). Some polls use push-button phones to record preferences. It’s tough to include 18 names when only numbers 1 thru 9 are usable.
4. “HELLLLOO” house effects.
3. Given that early caucus and primary states punch a candidate’s ticket to continue, why use a national average to determine debate participation?
2. Name recognition unduly influences results of early primary horserace polls. Lesser known candidates will now frontload their efforts to try to make the cutoff. Public polls altering campaign strategies? BAD!
1. And, finally, do you really want public polls this involved in a picking presidential nominee?
Try this on for size. How about a random drawing of half the field of announced candidates for the first hour of a debate and the second group for the second hour. More manageable. More equitable. And, doesn’t require a top 10 list!
4/14: Removing the Label of Inevitability?
April 14, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
The Hillary Clinton 1.0 “Listening Tour” and the 2.0 “Listening Tour” may be the same remedy from a campaign strategy point of view, but the circumstances are very different.
When seeking the U.S. Senate from New York, although well-known, she had never sought elective office and had to prove herself as a candidate in her own right. Also, there was the so-called “carpetbagger” issue which required her to learn about New York and demonstrate her ability to represent the state. The task before Clinton now, having been a senator, candidate for president, and Secretary of State, is to re-invent herself as someone who can connect and relate to Americans. Success will be measured in whether she can earn the public trust, rather than seem that she is once again inevitable and entitled. Lacking stiff competition for her party’s nomination, Clinton also needs to find a way to stay relevant over the next year to avoid being defined by the GOP. She also needs to stave off the Republicans characterizing the political agenda. The trip to Iowa seems like a good place to begin and the drive there an interesting attention grabber.
Right now, Clinton has a clear path to the nomination. But, Democrats do want to have a dialogue. She hopes the listening tour provides that interaction. The general election is more of a 50-50 proposition. Demographic changes are in her favor. When Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, 87% of the electorate was white, and only 13% were people of color. Fast forward to 2012, white voters represented only 72% of the electorate and people of color had more than doubled to 28%. Will the Obama coalition turn out and be solid for Clinton? Will the GOP make any inroads with Latino voters?
Offsetting this “Demography is Destiny” thesis is the so-called “curse of the third term.” In 1988, Bush 41 was elected following President Reagan’s election and re-election. The previous time a president served a full eight years and then someone of the same party was elected was Rutherford B. Hayes following President Grant. History may repeat itself, but it doesn’t often.
3/13: Tolerance for Religious Rights
March 13, 2015
While there has been growing acceptance of gay marriage in the United States, Americans also value religious liberty.
A majority believes moral conscience exemptions from the law should be allowed. Many Americans also assert that wedding vendors and public officials with religious objections should not be penalized for denying services to same-sex couples.
Respecting the traditional definition of the family is an important ideal to notable proportions of Americans.
Catholic News Agency/Marist Poll Results: Demography
Catholic News Agency/Marist Poll Results: Political Subgroups and Demography
Catholic News Agency/Marist Poll Results: Religion
Catholic News Agency/Marist Poll Methodology
To read the full story by the Catholic News Agency, click here.
2/19: It’s Getting Later Earlier
February 19, 2015
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Some time back, we added 24 x 7 and the permanent campaign to America’s political lexicon. But, it sure seems like we are pushing the envelope this time around with about 20 GOP wannabes off and (almost) running for their party’s nomination. On the Democratic side, things are atypically more organized with Hillary Clinton pretty much jogging around the track by herself. Cast in the role of inevitable this election cycle may play out better for her at least as far as the Democratic nod is concerned.
Last night, I was co-teaching Political Communication at Marist College along with Mary Griffith, The Marist Poll’s director of Media Initiatives and Polling News. The discussion moved onto the 1968 campaign and how Robert Kennedy didn’t declare his candidacy until that March after the New Hampshire primary. Recognizing that the rules of selecting nominees are wholly different than they were back then when I was still in high school… nonetheless, this drawn out testing of the waters, forming exploratory committees, and then, finally taking the plunge seems a bit overplayed this time.
Now, we are as guilty as anyone else, although not perhaps as guilty as the potential candidates, on jumping the starting gun. We have already conducted a series of polls, along with our NBC News media partner, of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. We have also done several national trial heats with the McClatchy News Service.
So, 24 X 7 and the permanent campaign welcome to 2016!
12/19: Holiday Wishes from the Marist Poll
December 19, 2014
The entire Marist Poll team would like to wish you a very happy holiday season and a healthy and joyous New Year.
Click below to watch our holiday greeting, including a couple of twists on some holiday favorites.
10/9: Too Close to Call? Not This Time
October 9, 2014
By Barbara Carvalho
It all came down to Buster Posey vs. Yasiel Puig, and it had nothing to do with the baseball playoffs. No, it had everything to do with whether I would win this year’s (the 64th) season of the 300 Club. The group that is made up of around 100 baseball junkies who each year pick ten players and three alternates from the entire major leagues as their roster for the season.
Having trailed miserably for much of the season, I surged in September owing in large part to batters like the Tigers Paul Goldschmidt who failed to qualify. Although I have mixed feelings about Robinson Cano, (he cost me the 300 Club championship a few years back on the final day of the season, not to mention his deserting my Yankees for the West Coast this year), he made, along with Justin Morneau, for wonderful alternates.
At approximately 3:50 pm on game 162, I took a narrow lead when Daniel Murphy of the Mets (of all teams) finally got a hit in his last AB of the season. Everyone was now accounted for with the exception of my chief competitor’s pick of Posey and my last gasp, Puig. Would my .0003 lead hold up? I could barely stand the tension. It was like watching Eli Manning lead my favorite football Giants down the field (twice) to win the Super Bowl, or waiting for the exit polls to confirm the pre-election estimates that I’m responsible for at The Marist Poll.
The 4pm games started badly for me when the Giants Posey belted a home run in his first AB… Would Puig hold the line? Would Posey ruin my season?
Posey ended up being taken out of the game after going 2 for 4, closing the gap ever so slightly. Puig went 0-3 but because of rounding only dropped 1 point for his lack of production. Final result: I won by .0001 of a point. Much closer than the Bush-Gore battle in Florida in 2000.
To what do I owe my success? Does my career as a pollster improve my estimates as a predictor of baseball averages? Or, is it vice-versa?
I’ve pondered this for the better part of the week. And, with the mid-term elections rapidly approaching, I feel my Marist Poll colleagues and our NBC News partners would like me to arrive at a definitive conclusion.
Here goes… I’m clearly a numbers person and enjoy compiling stats in both arenas. Early trends also are key in baseball and politics. I’m not required to pick the 300 Club players until roughly a month into the season and everyone knows there are plenty of pre-election polls to establish trends. Both fields are also the subject of number-crunching aggregators.
There is, however, one startling difference between baseball and election prognostications. With the 300 Club, there is no margin of error. Thankfully, winners and losers in elections don’t require .0001 poll precision.
7/25: Candidate Clinton? 50-50 Odds Are Never a Sure Bet
July 25, 2014
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
There are two schools of thought on whether Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016. Some say she is and some say she isn’t.
But, is Clinton in essence already on the campaign trail? I don’t know. What have we learned about whether she will eventually run for real? I don’t know.
Why? Because if Hillary Clinton is running for president, she’d be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc. If Hillary Clinton is not running for president, she’d also be doing exactly what she’s been doing lately… a book tour, public pronouncements, TV appearances etc.
There are several interesting take-aways from our recent NBC News/Marist Polls of Iowa and New Hampshire on what the public thinks about the former First Lady, former US Senator, and former Secretary of State. First off, Democrats are ready for Hillary. Her favorable rating with her party’s faithful is 89% in Iowa and 94% in New Hampshire. WOW! And, she trounces VP Joe Biden in both of these states in early hypothetical matchups by 50 points in Iowa and 56 points in New Hampshire. DOUBLE WOW!!
Dems may be ready for Hillary, but the rest of the voters in these two states are less than eager. In fact, she is closely matched against most of her potential GOP rivals, and is under 50% in both states against all comers except Scott Walker in Iowa and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire. To make matters even less comforting for the Clinton for President team, each of the Republicans runs better in pairings against Clinton than their own favorability rating. In other words, Hillary Clinton unifies the GOP opposition. Right now, she’d make Iowa and New Hampshire, states that Obama carried both times, swing states. Not a pretty picture for the Democrats.
So, Hillary Clinton may ultimately toss her hat into the ring. And, she may have a clear path to her party’s nomination. But, she will have to go through a prolonged battle against her eventual GOP opponent before anyone should talk of her winning the White House.
7/9: Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change
July 9, 2014
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Change is usually a welcome sign in politics for a challenger looking to unseat an incumbent. But, so far, in NYS the sentiment to move in a new direction is not providing Rob Astorino, the GOP challenger to Governor Andrew Cuomo, the kind of boost he needs. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll, 57% of voters think NYS needs major changes. Although this is down from the 73% who held this view when Cuomo first took office, it could provide the foundation for a serious challenge to the first term governor, all things being equal.
But, all things are not equal. 55% of NYS voters are confident Cuomo is changing state government for the better. They see the incumbent as a strong leader and as someone who cares about the average person. Yet, don’t expect a record-breaking re-election for Cuomo. His approval rating at 48% is not off the charts. Although most NYers think the worst of the economic slump is behind them, 60% still think the state is in a recession.
Right now, a majority of NYS voters do not know enough about Astorino to have an opinion of him. That represents an opportunity for him but also carries a risk. Once the Cuomo campaign shifts into high gear, they will try to define Astorino as unacceptable to NY voters. Unless Astorino can set his sails to the winds of change, he will finish a distant second.