Where does the presidential contest stand nationally?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy article, click here.
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7/13: McClatchy-Marist Poll
July 13, 2016
7/12: McClatchy-Marist Poll
July 12, 2016
What do registered voters nationally think of the potential vice presidential selections of presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy article, click here.
Complete McClatchy-Marist Poll tables and methodology
4/8: McClatchy-Marist Poll
April 8, 2016
Do Americans think the nation is moving on the right or the wrong track?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy article, click here.
4/7: McClatchy-Marist Poll
April 7, 2016
Where does the race for the White House stand nationally? When the Democratic and Republican front-runners, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump, are matched against each other, are their respective supporters voting for their candidate of choice or against his or her opponent?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy article, click here.
4/6: McClatchy-Marist Poll
April 6, 2016
Will the Democratic Party unite behind the party’s eventual nominee? What are the odds that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s supporters will back Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders if he wins the nomination? What are the chances Sanders’ backers will throw their support behind Clinton if she becomes the nominee?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy article, click here.
4/5: Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll
April 5, 2016
Is the American Dream dead or alive? Find out in the inaugural Exclusive Point Taken-Marist Poll.
To find our the details, visit the Point Taken website.
4/5: McClatchy-Marist Poll
Where does the contest for the Republican nomination stand nationally? Do Republicans want a contested convention?
Find out in the latest national McClatchy-Marist Poll. To read the full McClatchy story, click here.
1/30: The Enduring Value of Public Polls
January 30, 2016
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
In this primary season the only conclusion that makes sense is that very little has made sense. Rigorous, scientific public polls have provided a very useful road map. As fellow pollster Gary Langer has commented: although public polls, the good and the bad, are often mixed together like champagne, cola, and turpentine, where would we be without good measurements of public opinion? What started out as a Bush/Clinton inevitable matchup, has emerged as anything but. Public polls have provided insights (and, there are many) about the staying power of Donald Trump and the emergence of Bernie Sanders.
In Iowa, we are finally on the eve of when voters officially join the fray. This time four years ago, the final NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll showed Mitt Romney (+2) and Ron Paul in a statistical dead heat with Santorum surging into third place with 15%. The final Des Moines Register poll handicapped the contest the same with Romney (+2) to Ron Paul and Santorum surging into third place with 15%. These polls were excellent explainers of where the contest stood at that time and provided many additional insights into what the numbers showed under the hood.
A couple of weeks ago, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll and the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll again mirrored each other. Marist had Cruz (+4) over Trump, and the DMR had Cruz (+3) over Trump. Rubio was in third place in both polls by the slimmest of margins over Carson. On the Democratic side, Marist had Clinton (+3) over Sanders. It was Clinton (+2) over Sanders in the DMR poll.
The final NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll has Trump (+7) over Cruz, but with Rubio in third and closing. Clinton remains (+3) over Sanders. The final DMR poll has Trump (+5) over Cruz with Rubio in third.
Both polls offer an inside-the-numbers look into what might tip the scales on Monday night. But, the campaigns don’t stop once the polls do. The GOP (Trump-less) debate, the latest flap over Clinton’s emails, the final ads, and the good ol’ ground game translate into, dare I say, these polls providing a narrative not a precise prediction. They represent serious attempts to measure public opinion, inform poll-watchers, and serve as a resource for political journalists. Now, let the voters decide.
This topsy-turvy election year, perhaps more than others, will ultimately require all of us to re-think polls, politics, and the press. But, isn’t that what each election season demands? The development of the new normal about candidates and campaigns is for another day. In the meantime, safe travels to my friends in Iowa, happy caucus, and see you in New Hampshire (if you don’t get snowed in)!
1/29: Top Ten Songs the Candidates will Dedicate to Iowans on Caucus Day
January 29, 2016
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
The Top Ten Songs the Candidates will Dedicate to Iowans on Caucus Day are:
10. Stand by Me by Ben E. King
9. I’ll be There For You by Bon Jovi
8. Don’t You (Forget About Me) by Simple Minds
7. All by Myself by Eric Carmen
6. Like I’m Gonna Lose You by Meghan Trainor featuring John Legend
5. All I Want Is You by U2
4. Help! (I Need Somebody) by The Beatles
3. People (Who Need People) by Barbra Streisand
2. Don’t Go Breaking My Heart by Elton John and Kiki Dee
1. Ain’t Too Proud to Beg by the Temptations
1/22: Top Ten Things Candidates Say When They Know They Are Down in the Polls
January 22, 2016
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
The top ten things candidates say when they know they are down in the polls are:
10) I’m right where I want to be.
9) Polls go up, polls go down.
8) I’m running neck and neck among _________ (fill in demographic group).
7) That’s not what our polls show.
6) We always expected it to be close.
5) We’ve got a great ground game.
4) Once voters get to know me, the numbers will turn around.
3) We’re competing for every vote, and we expect it to be very close.
2) I don’t put much stock in the polls. It’s the voters who count.
1) I love that poll. It’s a fair poll, and I’m going to win, and it will be huge! (This is an alternate universe comment and does not need to fit the category)