Members of the Marist Poll team bid a bittersweet farewell to its student employees who comprise the Class of 2011.
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1/21: Memories of Inaugurations Past
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
Along with most of the nation today, I’m thinking inauguration. My first memories of a president taking the oath of office date to 1961. My age. Ask not! My favorite inauguration was the first I had attended, Bill Clinton’s in 1993.
Dr. Lee M. Miringoff overlooking the 1993 Inaugural Parade
There are many great memories from those few days in Washington from the swearing in (excellent seats) to attending the NYS ball that evening (rubbed shoulders with Nelson Mandela).
The top recollection, after the passage of several decades, remains watching the parade down Pennsylvania Avenue from Senator Moynihan’s apartment. Our own private viewing stand.
My contact with Senator Moynihan dates to phone calls I would regularly receive in the early ‘80s about his latest Marist Poll numbers from his, then, staff aide, Tim Russert. The relationship with the Senator grew over the years to include seminars at Marist College where he would treat political science students to his special take of politics and policy. On one occasion, he was even a good enough sport to try his hand at an interview as “Daniel Patrick” with a voter who unfortunately couldn’t rate Senator Moynihan because he had never heard of him. (Won’t ever try that again.) And, there were the lunches in the Senate dining room always full of insight and dripping with Capitol lore.
But, his invitation to attend his inauguration party was the best. And, the memories stay fresh as does my recollection of Senator Moynihan as a great host and gentleman.
11/28: Mitofsky Still Teaching
November 28, 2012
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
It’s been 6 years since our mentor, colleague, and friend’s death. Warren Mitofsky was a clear thinker and major innovator of the public polling community. Beyond his methodological rigor, he communicated long-lasting, yet, simple messages to the profession. His thoughts remain vital through the 2012 election cycle.
Despite this year’s successful scientifically based public polls, the road was rocky, beset by a drum-beat of critics. Yet, Warren’s frequently uttered message, now ably echoed by Joe Lenski, remains a guide. “Believe your numbers!”
If your methods are scientifically sound, and
…you uncover unique results which pin the tag “outlier” on your findings, believe your numbers.
…you have a wider than expected spread in party identification, that brings a cascade of unwarranted criticism about weighting to party, believe your numbers.
…you are labelled a “newcomer” to Florida polling when you have Obama +2 and other long-standing polls have Romney +6, it isn’t a “house effect”. Believe your numbers.
…you detect a changing demography… an increase in minorities… in your likely voter models, it may simply reflect changing demography. Believe your numbers.
…more voters are telling your interviewers that they have already voted than are being reported by state tallying sources, it may reflect a time delay in mailing and recording early votes. Believe your numbers.
And, if you are being hammered for belonging to a conspiracy of pollsters who are cooking numbers and skewing results, stay focused.
Yes, it was “shoot the messenger” time and public pollsters were definitely in season.
Warren also advised us to always, always, always, poll right up to Election Day, even if you opt, to avoid confusion with Election Day exit polls, not to release the poll. Recognizing that campaigns don’t stop when you finish your “final” survey, sometimes a week out, there just might be something to be learned for future elections about the electorate and your likely voter models with this “exercise.”
We forgot his sage advice on the eve of the 2008 New Hampshire presidential primary when Hilary Clinton “upset” Barack Obama. It would have saved us re-calling our respondents all week to ascertain the late movement among women to Clinton.
This year, the initial impact of Hurricane Sandy was picked up in our pre-weekend NBC/WSJ/Marist Polls of FLOHVA — Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. But, was there any late movement on the eve of the election? We decided to invest, as per Warren’s dictum, in one last poll, bringing the grand 13 month total to 53 surveys. Sunday and Monday, we conducted a national survey and found Obama +3 among registered voters and +2 among the likely electorate.
There were many juicy poll nuggets in this survey including information about independent voters, approval ratings, the electorate’s view of the direction of the nation and the economy, minority participation, and where undecided voters were likely to end up. This all provided a context for Tuesday’s official tally and will guide our polls, especially our likely voter models, in future election cycles.
So, Election 2012 is now comfortably in our rear view mirror. Thanks, Warren, for being the lead driver once again.
11/27: A New Normal?
November 27, 2012
Four weeks. It’s been four weeks since the tides swelled, the water rushed in, and the lights went out. Still, the lingering question is, Will we ever get back to normal?
All things considered, we are extremely blessed. Our electricity came back after twelve days of darkness, and we have hot water. We are still without heat but just received word that a new boiler will be installed mid-week. The demolition and clean up in the basement continues.
I call Howard Beach, Queens home. I have done so my entire life. The “we” to whom I refer is my husband, John, my mother, Elaine, and my brother, Bill. My childhood home lies on an often picturesque portion of Jamaica Bay, directly across from the main strip of retail stores. My mother still lives there. On the evening of Monday, October 29th, I stayed at my mom’s, expecting a small amount of basement flooding, perhaps, one to two feet, like we experienced during Hurricane Irene. Nothing prepared us for what Sandy’s wrath would bring.
With more than two hours until high tide, the water broached our backyard. With each passing minute, the water came higher and higher. The sandbags we stacked next to our side doors did nothing to keep the water from coming into our basement. Bill entered the lowest level of the home to see if anything could be done. Realizing we would have to wait out the storm, he came upstairs and closed the basement door. The lights went out. We cut the circuit breakers and turned off the gas, fearing an electrical fire. Transformers on Cross Bay Boulevard exploded. We could not see the fences in the yard, and no one dared speak of the possibility of water entering the first floor of the house.
As the tide continued to rise, I periodically checked in with my husband. To be close to his place of employment, John hunkered down in our apartment in the “new” side of Howard Beach. It was a section of the neighborhood no one expected to flood. A little after 8 p.m., he asked me the time of high tide. With about half an hour to go, two feet of water surrounded our first floor apartment, and he expected it to invade our home shortly. I began to panic. We hung up, agreeing to touch base in thirty minutes.
I could not contact John at the appointed time, and my emotions escalated from panic to near hysteria. The reality was worse than John was letting on. Water had already come into the apartment, and he had to make a quick decision. The apartment still had power, and he feared the water would rise to the level of the power outlets. Within five minutes, he pulled on his rain gear and left into a sea of waist high water. Luckily, our neighbor was home, and he found shelter on the second floor of her home. After what felt like hours, John called me. He was safe!
Truly, that is all that matters. Our family survived the storm. The aftermath has not been easy. We have our good days and our bad days. John and I lost our apartment but are grateful to be able to stay at my mom’s house. The apartment has since been gutted. We estimate about two feet of water entered our home. Our furniture, electronics, and a good amount of our clothes were destroyed. In total, our family lost four cars to the flood. These can be replaced.
What is most difficult to face are the lost memories – the pictures, weddings cards, and treasured collectibles that are no longer. My mother’s basement had more than six feet of water in it. That basement was home to five generations of memories. The piano on which I learned to play had floated across the room and was atop a freezer that had tipped in the chaos. My great grandfather’s Social Security card was discovered but was too saturated to be saved. My grandmother’s baptismal certificate and grandfather’s college books are strewn across the driveway as are my mother’s original lesson plans from when she taught. My college notebooks and papers are, now, a watered down mess.
However, I feel guilty bemoaning our losses and inconveniences. Many in our neighborhood are still without power. Our pastor received electricity over the weekend, but he is still using the gas jets in the rectory to provide him with heat. Many of our friends not just lost their basements but the first floors of their homes. Some have lost their houses entirely. Piles of rubble lay where homes, victims of fire, once stood. Again, we are lucky.
Some of the stores on Cross Bay Boulevard happily display signs that they are open for business. A welcome indication that aspects of the life we once knew may be returning. Banners have been printed and hung with the text, “Howard Beach United.” We are truly a community bonded by tragedy and hope. But, as the recovery moves on, we will have to wait and see what our new definition of “normal” will be.
11/14: Alzheimer’s Most Feared Disease
November 15, 2012
More than any other disease, Americans are afraid of developing Alzheimer’s Disease. This is according to a survey by Home Instead Senior Care conducted by The Marist Poll.
Do Americans think it would be harder to be diagnosed with Alzheimer’s or to care for someone who has the disease?
To find out more, click here.
11/5: On Election Eve…
November 5, 2012
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
When it comes to public opinion polls, this election cycle has had more shoot the messenger reactions than ever before. There’s little doubt that pollsters are in season for October and November.
Maybe this results from the growing twitter-sphere. I can’t recall the number of times I’ve had to explain that we don’t weight by party, can’t weight by party, and shouldn’t weight by party. Party identification is a variable that moves from election to election and from poll to poll. If you had used the ’04 exit polls as a guide for ’08, McCain would have been elected.
Ironically, I’ve never been asked why we might be undercounting young people or overcounting conservatives. I guess the criticisms of poll data are motivated by the political cliche: “Where you stand depends upon where you sit.”
Pollsters can adjust data when there are population parameters but not for attitudes. By way of example, pollsters can weight by age because it is a known number, but not by whether you consider yourself to be young, middle-aged, or old, an attitude.
Then, there’s the issue of pollsters “cooking the numbers” to create some pre-desired result. This criticism is often tied to the “weighting by party” argument.” If you have any worries about pollsters forming a conspiracy, you should attend a professional gathering of number crunchers and watch them try to figure out where to go to lunch. There isn’t a scientifically based public pollster I’ve ever come across in more than three decades of polling who isn’t motivated exclusively by the desire to be accurate and informative.
Then, there’s the matter of track record. A couple of facts about The Marist Poll. In the presidential election of 2008, we polled five of the current battleground states. We called every one right. The average difference between our final estimates and the Election Day results was 2%. And, we underestimated Obama in each case. We are sufficiently humble enough to understand that you are only as good as your last election cycle. And, the battleground states this time are very close.
We are firmly committed to transparency, and make all of our numbers available to the public. Unfortunately, it is our belief in sharing all of our internal numbers that frequently creates the misuse of our polls. But, we will continue to provide the numbers nonetheless because so many people find them valuable and informative.
Finally, I’ve never been convinced that voters are waiting for the next poll to decide who to support. It’s really the other way around. Public polls measure what voters think based upon what the candidates and their campaigns are doing.
Now, I’ve been asked my take on who will win the battleground states. The ‘ol perfessor Casey Stengel used to say, “It’s very difficult making predictions, especially about the future.” Nonetheless, affix your bayonets… Here goes.
Obama has a slight advantage in Ohio and Iowa. Nevada and Wisconsin are leaning his way. The remaining swing states: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are simply too close to call.
If (and, it’s still a big “IF”) you give Obama Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and Romney the remaining five states, then Obama ends up with 277 electoral votes to Romney’s 261. The assumption here is that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota all remain blue states (another “IF,” even if not as big). We have not polled these states.
Also, recognize these states are all within single digits and most are within the margin of error. Late movement among undecided voters and get out the vote efforts can still have a big impact on all the contested states. Why? Because it’s very close!
Have a good Election Day. My thanks and gratitude to the more than 100,000 voters who have taken their time to share their views with us this election year.
11/5: A Nod to Democracy
By Barbara Carvalho
With all the political spin, polarization, and cynicism that accompanies much of the chatter about Campaign 2012, it’s easy to lose sight of what Election Day represents. At the Marist Poll at Marist College, the election season (which seems to get longer and longer) is a time to engage our students and provide a “laboratory” to understand democracy in action.
Since last fall, more than 500 Marist College undergraduates spoke first hand to voters across the country about their views on the presidential election, the economy, foreign policy and important issues and events of the day. As part of our partnership with NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, these students also got to focus their efforts on first, the opinions of voters in Republican primary states and, then, voters in nine critical battleground states.
In collaboration with the McClatchy News Service, we spoke to Americans about their hopes, concerns, and solutions for solving many problems facing the country. We found a consensus of values and a multiplicity of solutions. But, more importantly, agreement that compromise was needed and attainable.
All told, over 100,000 people across the nation took the time, one by one, to share their experiences, opinions, and intentions. We are grateful. Although polls are often characterized as villainess inanimate objects for political spin, we and our students know and have a connection with the spirited and very real individuals from all walks of life who participated in sharing their thoughts.
We also value transparency. The Marist Poll team worked tirelessly to make sure all the survey information, toplines, internals, and methods were detailed and accessible. If we missed something, survey questions were answered and information provided. But, with transparency comes responsibility. A warning to those who choose to use transparency to distort: a knowledgeable public will not tolerate such mischaracterizations for long. We will continue to explain, inform, and hopefully enlighten.
So, thank you to all who participated in this statistical chronicle of Campaign 2012. Regardless of whether or not your candidate won, we hope you will continue to be energized to speak your opinions and make your voice heard. To quote President Lincoln, “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail. Without it, nothing can succeed.” That’s how democracy works!
11/1 Undecided Voters in the 2012 Presidential Election
November 1, 2012
In Presidential elections some people will always vote for the Democrat and some will always vote for the Republican. But, there’s that group of people in the middle who make up their mind as the campaign moves toward Election Day that often decides who wins. The exact proportion of undecided voters varies from campaign to campaign—sometimes voters have a more difficult time deciding who to vote for and as much as 10 to 15% of likely voters are undecided. But in some years, like 2012, voters pick sides early and there are few undecided voters left by Labor Day, the start of the fall campaign. This election season, polls have consistently shown few undecided likely voters. So, who are these people? How much do they matter? If they do vote, in whose direction will they break?
Natalie Jackson
In order to look at these questions, the data from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist battleground state polls of Florida, Virginia, and Ohio were combined. This dataset comprises three polls from each state in September and October, two before the debates started and one after, for a total of 9 polls. The combined samples include 11,510 registered voters, of which 1,168–approximately 10%–indicated that they were unsure of their vote preference. About 40% of these respondents chose a side in the follow-up question that asked if they were leaning toward a candidate, but the majority said they were still not sure.
Will the undecideds vote? Perhaps, the single biggest question is whether these people will vote. The answer could hold the key to who wins the election. Undoubtedly, some will stay home. However, of the 1,168 undecided voters in the polls, 61% of them are classified as likely voters. The Marist Poll likely voter model takes into account chance of vote, interest in the election, past voting behavior, and turnout expectations. These undecided voters likely to cast a ballot will probably make a decision at some point, or even at the last minute, and vote. They account for 8% of all likely voters in nine battleground states and could make a difference in the race.[1] In this close race, that is a substantial voting bloc.
Beyond the likely voter classification, there are other factors that point to a substantial number of undecided voters actually casting a ballot. Perhaps, most strikingly, is that 92% of undecided likely voters report having participated in past presidential elections, and 90% say their chance of voting this year is either excellent or good. Sixty-two percent of undecided likely voters also say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting. Over two-thirds—70%– indicate they are very interested in the campaign. These numbers suggest undecided likely voters are not apathetic, uninformed or uninterested. They are genuinely interested in voting—they simply have not decided who to vote for yet.
Who are these undecided voters? This group of voters is not demographically exceptional. Fifty-four percent are women, 52% are married, and 39% are college graduates. Thirteen percent are between the ages of 18 and 29, 26% are between ages 30 and 44, 29% are in the 45-49 age range, and just about a third are over 60. Seventy-six percent identify as white, 10% are African American, and 9% are Latino.
Politically, most of these people are often not committed to a party or ideology. Twenty-two percent identify as Democrats, compared to 15% that identify as Republicans. The largest group, 61%, identify as independents. The same pattern is evident with ideology: 33% are either conservative or very conservative, compared with only 15% who are liberal or very liberal, and the remaining 52% are moderates. Thirteen percent say they support the Tea Party.
Why are they undecided? If these people are engaged, enthusiastic, or, most importantly, likely to vote, why have they not made a decision yet? It is often assumed people who have not decided who to vote for are not paying attention or do not care. The data offer some insights. Of the 92% of current undecided likely voters who voted in the previous presidential election, 59% of them recall voting for President Obama, while only 32% recall voting for Senator McCain. The remainder either thinks they voted for another candidate or cannot recall. But, they divide about Obama’s job approval. Thirty-six percent approve of the job he is doing as President and 36% disapprove. The remaining 28% are unsure. Additionally, 53% think the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and only 33% say it is headed in the right one.
Altogether, these results indicate that most of these undecided likely voters are conservatives or moderates, who are dissatisfied with Obama’s presidency and the state of the nation. But, these individuals are not fond of Romney either. Romney’s favorability rating is upside-down among this group. Only 31% give him a favorable rating and 42% rate him unfavorably. Even among Republicans in this undecided likely voter group, Romney has only a 39% favorability rating and a 32% unfavorable one.
Who will they vote for? As noted, about 40% of undecided voters provided an answer when asked if they lean toward one candidate or another. Although the majority of undecided likely voters still say they do not know, 25% state they lean toward Obama, and 15% lean toward Romney. A handful of undecided partisans lean toward the candidate across the aisle: 7% of undecided Democrats lean toward the Republican ticket, and 12% of undecided Republicans lean toward the Democratic ticket. Interestingly, 16% of those who identify as Tea Party supporters lean toward Obama, and 26% lean toward Romney. The favorability ratings advantage Obama. Among undecided likely voters, Obama nets a plus 15 points compared with Romney’s net 11 points in a negative direction. Still, 58% remain undecided even when asked if they are leaning toward a candidate. For them, it is anyone’s guess.
As we approach the final few days of the campaigns, the proportion of undecided likely voters has continued to shrink. Some might have already voted and made their decision, but many of these individuals will not choose until they get into the voting booth on Election Day—if they choose to vote. The numbers indicate that a good proportion of undecided registered voters are likely to vote. The campaigns have many competing goals and issues to address, but one of the most crucial remains attracting undecided voters, even in a year in which there are few undecideds left. The close race means these few undecided voters could make the difference.
[1] The Marist Poll releases tables which show a smaller percentage of undecided registered and likely voters. These tables do not categorize undecided voters who are leaning toward a candidate as undecided but instead include them within the candidate’s numbers. For this analysis, undecided voters include voters who may be leaning toward a candidate.
8/29: Getting a Bounce?
August 29, 2012
By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff
The GOP convention is (finally) off and running followed next week by the Democratic gathering. With Obama and Romney closely matched at the start of these two quadrennial events, as they have been since Romney emerged as the presumptive GOP nominee, what should we expect poll number-wise once the final gavel goes down in Charlotte?
Post-convention bounces are often dissected for any hint that the character of the contest has changed. Yet, typically 5% has been about all a candidate can count on, and that advantage often quickly dissipates.
Don’t be surprised this go-around if the Romney and Obama bounces are even smaller. Simply put, there’s far fewer persuadable voters to reach. The “undecided” and “”those who might vote differently” groups now are about half the size of recent election cycles.
Part of the explanation has to do with the relative lateness of these conventions. The summer is practically over. Part of the explanation resides in the polarization that divides the electorate. Most voters have already picked sides. Part of the explanation is the result of limited network coverage for these increasingly staged events.
Nonetheless, the two conventions are important for Romney and Obama. Romney has to solve his likeability problem. Obama has to address why any shortcomings of his first term are likely to vanish if he is re-elected. And, both camps are keen on rallying their respective bases. Enthusiasm doesn’t show up in tossup numbers or poll bounces, but it is likely to determine who takes the oath of office in January.
8/29: What About the Economy?
By Barbara Carvalho
Whatever happened to this election being about the economy and only the economy? Well, the summer months ushered in a slew of back and forth arguments between the Obama and Romney campaigns which had little to do with what Romney hoped would be a referendum on President Obama and the stalled economic recovery.
Instead of staying on his jobs message, we’ve witnessed a Romney campaign having to handle Supreme Court decisions on immigration and health care, his role with Bain Capital, outsourcing, Swiss bank accounts, the reluctance to release his income tax returns, a gaffe-filled trip to Europe, and recently, candidate Akin’s misguided comments on abortion and rape. Even the GOP convention has been delayed by the threat of Hurricane Isaac.
This week will be Romney’s best chance to reintroduce himself to the American electorate and, along with Congressman Ryan, re-direct the discussion back to jobs. Next week will be President Obama’s chance to provide a clear rationale for his re-election.
And then, next Friday, mere hours following Obama’s acceptance speech, the government will issue the latest jobs numbers. If the picture remains as unattractive as the last few months have shown, expect the Romney-Ryan team to pounce on the figures and take the offense. So far, that hasn’t come easy for them, but they would be well advantaged to fill the weeks between the conventions and the debates with as much discussion about the economy as they can.