The U.S Presidential Contest (September 2024)

NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll

Harris +1 Point Against Trump Nationally.... Edges Trump By 3 Among Definite Voters

In advance of tonight’s presidential debate, just one point separates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump among registered voters nationally. Among voters who say they definitely plan to vote in November, Harris is +3 points against Trump, similar to where the contest stood in August. Trump has overtaken Harris, though, among independents and Latino voters. Harris previously led Trump by double digits among both of these voting groups. Will the debate matter? Most Americans plan to either watch the showdown or follow news coverage of it. Three in ten voters say the debate could make a difference in deciding their vote.

Presidential Contest Nationally
In November´s election for president are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
SOURCE: NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll National Registered Voters. Interviews conducted September 3rd through September 5th, 2024, n=1,413 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Harris (49%) and Trump (48%) are competitive nationally among registered voters including leaners, tightening the race from August when Harris (48%) was +3 points against Trump (45%) in a multicandidate field.

  • Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, Harris (51%) edges Trump (48%) by 3 points.

  • There is a wide gender gap between supporters of the candidates. Harris leads Trump among women by 15 points while Trump outpaces Harris among men by 12 points. Although Trump is ahead among white voters, Harris (47%) is getting support from a larger proportion of this group than Biden (41%) did in 2020, and Clinton (37%) did in 2016.

  • Among independents, Trump (49%) edges Harris (46%). This is a 14-point shift from August when Harris was up 11 points over Trump in a multicandidate field. Trump has turned around his support among Latino voters, as well. In August, Harris led Trump among Latinos by 15 points in a multi-candidate field. Trump with 51% now edges Harris at 47%, a 19-point swing.

  • 70% of Americans will watch all or most of the presidential debate between Harris and Trump and an additional 23% say they won’t watch but will closely follow the news coverage of the debate.

  • 30% of registered voters say the debate will help them a great deal or good amount in making their selection for president. 69%, though, think it will not help them very much or at all.

"When Trump and Harris square off in Philadelphia, the stakes are sky high because the contest is so close," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Only single digits separate the candidates on most of the issues important to voters. But voters who value honesty are overwhelmingly for Harris, and voters looking for strong leadership are mostly in Trump's corner. Will this still be the case on Wednesday morning?"

Trump Viewed as Stronger on Immigration, the Economy, & Middle East…Harris Perceived as Candidate to Better Handle Abortion Issue

  • A majority of Americans (53%) consider Trump to be the candidate who would better handle the immigration issue. 46% have this view of Harris.
  • 52% of Americans think Trump, not Harris (48%), is the candidate who would better handle the economy.
  • Trump (51%) is perceived to be stronger than Harris (47%) on handling the Middle East.
  • Harris (56%), not Trump (42%), is thought to be the candidate who would better handle the abortion issue.
  • On the issues of the economy, immigration, and the Middle East Harris narrows the gap against Trump among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

Honesty & Strength of Leadership Top the List of Most Important Presidential Qualities

  • 27% of registered voters say the most important quality in a president is honesty and trustworthiness. Harris tops Trump among these voters, 72% to 26%.
  • 22% think being a strong leader is critical. Trump leads Harris among these voters, 75% to 25%.
  • 18% believe a candidate who reflects their stance on the issues is most important, and Trump bests Harris by 15 points.
  • Shared values are most important for 16%, and Harris takes Trump by 15 points with these voters.
  • For voters who believe the deciding factor in their vote is a candidate who can bring about change (12%), Harris (54%) leads Trump (40%) by 14 points.
  • 4% think experience is most important.

Voters are Motivated by Hope, Not Fear

When thinking about their presidential vote, 71% of registered voters say they are motivated by hope and not fear (28%). Hope is the motivator, regardless of candidate support or party identification.

A Candidate’s Age is a Minor Factor, If at All, in Vote Choice

47% of registered voters say that a candidate’s age is important but not a deciding factor in determining for whom they will vote for president. Four in ten (40%) report age is not a factor at all while 12% say a candidate’s age makes the difference. Republicans (58%) are more likely to say it is a non-issue than are Democrats (23%) and independents (41%).

Harris Perceived as Candidate More Likely to Represent Change or Care About Americans

52% of Americans think Harris, not Trump (47%), is the candidate who most represents change. Identical proportions believe Harris (52%) is more likely than Trump (47%) to care about the average American.

Americans Divide About Impressions of Harris… Trump’s Favorability is Upside Down

  • Harris is viewed favorably by 47% of Americans. 46% have a negative view of her.
  • Trump’s positive rating is 45% compared with 50% who have an unfavorable impression of him.

Plurality of Americans Think Harris is Too Liberal… Similar Proportion Says Trump is Too Conservative

  • 47% of Americans think Harris’ political ideology is too liberal. 41% say it is “about right,” and 9% believe she is too conservative.
  • 43% say Trump is too conservative. 43% think he is “about right,” and 10% believe he is too liberal.

Walz Makes Positive Inroads… Vance Favorability Still Upside Down

  • Walz’s favorable rating is 40% among Americans, up from 17% in August. His unfavorable rating is 36%. 23%, down from 71%, have either never heard of Walz or are unsure how to rate him.
  • Vance’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 34% to 44%. 22% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.

Voters Divide on Congressional Generic Ballot

46% of registered voters nationally say they plan to support the Democratic congressional candidate on the ballot in their district. 45% expect to support the Republican. One percent plan to support another candidate, and 8% are unsure.

Biden Approval Rating at 43%

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Americans stands at 43%, notched down from 46% last month. His disapproval score is 51%. 24% of Americans strongly approve of how Biden is doing his job while 41% strongly disapprove.