October 3, 2024
The U.S. Presidential Contest (October 2024)
Harris Edges Trump by 2 Points Nationally
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Donald Trump by 2 points among likely voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Among the overall national electorate, a similar margin separates the two candidates. Harris leads Trump among non-white voters. However, according to the 2020 Presidential Election Exit Polls, Harris still underperforms the support President Joe Biden received among non-white voters in 2020. Trump, though, edges Harris among independents, a group Biden carried by 13 points four years ago. Trump also outdistances Harris among white voters but underperforms the 17-point margin by which he carried this group in 2020. Among men, Trump is out in front. Harris carries women.
Harris (50%) is +2 points against Trump (48%) among likely voters nationally. A similar margin separates Harris (50%) and Trump (47%) among registered voters. One point separated Harris (49%) and Trump (48%) among U.S. registered voters in September.
Among independents who are likely to vote, Trump receives 50% to 46% for Harris.
While Harris (71%) is ahead of Trump (28%) among likely voters who plan to cast their ballot by mail or absentee ballot, Trump (58%) has the advantage over Harris (40%) among those who plan to vote on Election Day. Those who plan to vote at an early voting location divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
Trump (53%) leads Harris (45%) among white voters who are likely to cast a ballot. Harris (60%) is ahead of Trump (39%) among non-white voters although still behind Biden’s showing among these voters in 2020 (71%).
A 34-point gender gap exists among likely voters nationally. 57% of men support Trump to 41% for Harris. However, Harris (58%) easily outpaces Trump (40%) among women.
Harris has majority support among GenZ/Millennials (53%), Baby Boomers (53%), and the Silent/Greatest Generation (52%). Trump (53%) has majority support among GenX.
"With the campaigns in high gear, no one has closed the sale," says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Under the hood, the gender gap continues to widen and, at this rate, the gender gap in this year's election results will likely outpace what it has been historically."
Preserving Democracy and Economy Deciding Factors in Casting Ballot
Registered voters weigh in on the issues deciding their vote in November:
- 64% of registered voters say preserving democracy is a deciding factor in choosing a candidate for President.
- 59% of registered voters, say the economy is a crucial factor in their vote.
- Immigration is a deciding factor for 44% of registered voters. An additional 43% report immigration is important but not a deciding factor.
- Abortion is a key motivator for 44% while an additional 37% say it is an important issue but not a determinant in their vote.
Most Voters Know for Whom They Plan to Vote
80% of registered voters nationally, including 86% of likely voters, say they know the candidate they plan to support and will not change their mind. 15% of registered voters have a good idea of the candidate for whom they plan to vote but could change their mind. Five percent have not made up their mind. In June, 66% of registered voters nationally said they were firm in their choice of candidate.
Harris’ supporters (85%) are slightly more likely than Trump’s supporters (79%) to say they have made up their mind and will not change it prior to voting.
Trump Favorability Rating Upside Down… Americans Divide About Harris
- 51% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump compared with 45% who have a favorable view of him.
- Harris is perceived favorably by 47% to 47% unfavorably.
Congressional Generic Ballot Tied among Likely Voters
47% of likely voters nationally say they plan to support the Democratic candidate running for Congress in their district, and the same proportion (47%) say they plan to back the Republican. One percent says they will support another party’s candidate, and 5% are unsure. Among registered voters, 2 points separate the Democratic candidate (47%) and the Republican candidate (45%) on the generic congressional ballot.
Plurality of Likely Voters Plan to Cast Their Ballot In-Person
49% of likely voters say they will head to the polls on Election Day and cast their ballot in-person. 25% think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 25% report they will vote at an early voting location.
More Than Three in Four Americans Confident in Election Integrity
76% of Americans say they are very confident or confident that state and local government will carry out a fair and accurate election this November. 24% are not very confident or not confident at all that an accurate election will be held.
Majorities of Americans Concerned About Voter Fraud & Foreign Interference in Elections
58% of Americans say they are either very concerned or concerned that voter fraud will occur this year. 42% are not very concerned or not concerned at all that people who are not eligible to vote will vote or that voters will cast a ballot more than once.
Republicans (86%) and independents (55%) are more concerned about voter fraud occurring than Democrats (33%).
About two in three Americans (66%) say they are either very concerned or concerned that foreign countries will interfere with this year’s elections, 34% are not very concerned or not concerned at all that this will occur.
While still a majority (52%), fewer Americans are either concerned or very concerned that people who are not U.S. citizens will be able to vote this year. 48% are not very concerned or not concerned at all that this will occur.
Republicans (81%) and independents (53%) are more concerned than Democrats (25%) that people who are not citizens will vote.
Nearly Seven in Ten Americans Confident in USPS to Deliver Election-Related Material
69% of Americans say they are very confident or confident in the United States Postal Service to deliver election-related mail to voters and election officials in a timely way this year. 30% are not very confident or confident that election materials will be delivered expeditiously.
Democrats (86%) express more confidence in the postal service than do Republicans (56%) and independents (69%).
Majority of Americans Embrace U.S. “Openness”
57% of residents nationally say that America’s openness to people all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation. 41% think it is a threat to losing our identity as a nation.
Close to Six in Ten Americans Think All Illegal Immigrants Should be Deported
59% of residents nationally strongly agree or agree that all immigrants who came to the United State illegally should be deported. This is up from 51% in March. 40%, though, do not share this view.
Most Republicans (89%) and a majority of independents (58%) believe all illegal immigrants should be made to leave the United States. This compares with 32% of Democrats.
Americans Pessimistic About the Nation’s Economic Conditions
68% of Americans think the nation’s economic conditions are only fair or poor. This includes 40% who say the state of the economy is poor. 32%, though, say the nation’s economy is excellent or good. Only 6% think the nation’s economy is excellent.
Biden’s Approval Rating at 42%
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Americans remains upside down. 42% approve of the job he is doing in office, and 52% disapprove. More than twice as many residents nationally (42%) strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing than strongly approve (20%).
Methodology
This survey of U.S. adults was conducted September 27th through October 1st, 2024 by the Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,628) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,514) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,294) are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.