February 22, 2023
The 2024 Presidential Election
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll
Support for Biden 2024 Run Grows Among Dems… GOP Thinks Odds are Better with Someone Other Than Trump Atop Ticket
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are warming to the idea of President Joe Biden as their party’s nominee in 2024. Marking a major shift in public opinion, half of those who identify or lean towards the Democratic Party now say the party has a better chance at winning the presidency next year with Biden at the top. This change in perception comes as Biden’s approval rating among Americans, overall, has inched up after his State of the Union Address last week. For former President Donald Trump, it’s another story. Trump faces a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who continue to think the GOP has a better chance of winning the Presidency with someone else as the party’s nominee. His favorability rating among those who identify or lean towards the Republican party is at its lowest point since before his presidency in the fall of 2016.
Half of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (50%) think their party has a better chance of winning the White House in 2024 with Biden as its nominee. 45% say another candidate would improve their chances of winning. In November 2022, it was upside down for Biden. A majority (54%) reported someone else would give the Democrats a better chance of winning while only 38% thought Biden would give them the edge.
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (83%) have a favorable view of Biden, comparable to the favorable rating he received last November.
Americans divide about Biden’s job performance. 46% approve, and 46% disapprove. Biden’s job approval rating has notched up since last month (43%). This is also Biden’s highest job approval rating since early March of 2022 when 47% approved of how he was doing his job. It is also his lowest disapproval rating since September 2021. 21% of Americans currently say they strongly approve of Biden’s job performance. 34% strongly disapprove.
54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the GOP has a better chance of winning the Presidency in 2024 with someone other than Trump as the party’s nominee. This is identical to last November when 54% also said it was time for another candidate to be atop the GOP ticket. 42% currently say Trump would give the GOP the advantage, up from 35%. Four percent are unsure.
Trump’s favorable rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (68%) is down from 79% last November and is his lowest favorable rating among this group since September 2016 (65%). One in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (25%) have an unfavorable view of the former president.
"The midterm elections are barely in our rearview mirror, and the jockeying for position in the 2024 presidential cycle has begun. Although for the Democrats, President Biden has improved his pole position," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "A majority of Republicans would prefer to turn the page on Trump, but a potentially crowded field could ultimately benefit the former president."
Trump vs. Biden on the Handling of Classified Documents
Neither Biden nor Trump gets a pass when it comes to their handling of classified documents. 37% of Americans think Trump’s handling of sensitive material is a greater threat to national security than how Biden handled classified documents when he was Vice President. Still, 26% say Biden’s handling of classified materials poses the greater risk. 36% consider both situations to be comparable in severity. Most Democrats (71%) think Trump’s dealings with these documents pose the bigger risk. Among Republicans, 50% think Biden’s actions were more egregious, but 41% say both situations are about the same.
Dems Have Favorable View of Harris, Buttigieg; Whitmer with Low Name Recognition
More than six in ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (63%) have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris. 21% have an unfavorable opinion of her, and 16% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg receives a similar favorable nod from his party. 63% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a positive opinion of Buttigieg while 12% have a negative impression of him. One in four (25%) has either never heard of Buttigieg or are unsure how to rate him.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who hasn’t ruled out a run, is little known to Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationally. 49% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. 42% have a favorable opinion of Whitmer, and 9% have an unfavorable one.
Two in Three with Favorable View of DeSantis, Scores Higher Than Others in Potential 2024 GOP Field
66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable view of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. 11% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. These are nearly identical to the scores he received in July 2022.
Fewer perceive former Vice President Mike Pence favorably. 51% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, down from 59% last July, have a positive opinion of Pence. 30% have an unfavorable view of him, unchanged from that time. 19% are either unsure or have never heard of him.
Former South Carolina Governor and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is not well-known to Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. 46% have either never heard of Haley or are unsure how to rate her. 41% have a favorable view of Haley, and 12% have an unfavorable one.