Election 2024

Marist National Poll

Biden Edges Trump in Two-Way Presidential Contest; Opens Up Lead Among Definite Voters

Despite a still close contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Trump’s support among white voters and independents has splintered. Biden is doing better than he did in 2020 among white voters, and he has eliminated the advantage that Trump had among independents earlier this month. Biden has a three-percentage point edge over Trump among registered voters nationally. In addition to independents, Trump has lost some ground among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden holds a six-percentage point lead. Biden is up five-percentage points in a multi-candidate field.

2024 Presidential Election
If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Source: Marist Poll National Registered Voters. Interviews conducted April 16th through April 18th, 2024, n=1,047 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Three percentage points separate Biden (51%) and Trump (48%) among registered voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, Biden received 50% to 48% for Trump. Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden (53%) is +6 percentage points over Trump (47%).

  • Trump has lost support among independents and those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. Trump (49%) and Biden (49%) now tie among independents. Trump held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden previously (52% for Trump to 45% for Biden). Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are now competitive. Trump previously had a 15-percentage point advantage over Biden (54% for Trump to 39% for Biden) among these voters.

  • 67% of Trump supporters say they are voting for Trump because they are for him and not because they are against Biden (32%). Among Biden’s supporters, 55% back him because they believe in their candidate. 43% support him because they oppose Trump.

  • Biden (43%) is up by five percentage points against Trump (38%) among registered voters in a multi-candidate field that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%), Cornel West (2%), and Jill Stein (2%). Biden was previously +2 percentage points over Trump (43% for Biden to 41% for Trump) in early April. Among those who definitely plan to vote, Biden (46%) is +7 percentage points against Trump (39%) in this multi-candidate field.

  • Trump’s support among independents is also down (30% from 38%) in a multi-candidate field. While Biden’s support is little changed (34% from 33%), Kennedy’s support among independents has inched up to 27% from 21%, previously.

"Despite some weak spots for Joe Biden among non-whites and younger voters, he continues to outperform his 2020 numbers among white voters," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although it bears watching in the future, right now, a multicandidate field does not benefit Trump."

Biden and Trump with Upside Down Favorable Ratings

Biden and Trump continue to receive upside down favorable ratings. 42% of Americans have a positive opinion of Biden compared with 51% who have an unfavorable view of him. Trump’s favorable rating is 40% among U.S. residents. 53% have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Biden’s Approval Ratings Status Quo

President Biden’s job approval rating is 43% among Americans, identical to earlier this month. 51% disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office. Looking at intensity, 19% of Americans strongly approve of Biden’s job performance compared with 38% who strongly disapprove.

Biden’s Approval Ratings on the Economy and War in the Middle East Underwater

President Biden’s approval rating on the economy is upside down (42% approve to 54% disapprove). Biden’s approval score on his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas is even worse. 35% approve, down from 40% in November of 2023, and 57% now disapprove.