February 12, 2014
2/12: Clinton Breaks 50% Against GOP Rivals for 2016
McClatchy/Marist National Poll
If Hillary Clinton were to run for president in 2016 and win her party’s nomination, a majority of registered voters nationally would support Clinton, regardless of her Republican opponent. Her closest competitor is Paul Ryan who Clinton leads by single digits. Clinton has a similar lead when up against former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
POLL MUST BE SOURCED: McClatchy-Marist Poll
“Voters are still a long way from making choices,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, right now, Clinton is in a league of her own.”
Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:
- Clinton — 52% — leads Paul Ryan — 44% — by 8 percentage points. Four percent are undecided. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in December, Clinton received 56% to 40% for Ryan. Four percent, at that time, were undecided.
- Clinton — 53% — is also ahead of Romney — 44% — by single digits. Three percent are undecided.
- Against Mike Huckabee, Clinton opens up a double-digit lead. Here, 55% of voters are for Clinton compared with 41% for Huckabee. Four percent are undecided.
- Clinton — 56% — has a seventeen percentage point advantage over Ted Cruz — 39%. Five percent are undecided. In December, Clinton received 57% to 35% for Cruz. Seven percent, at that time, were undecided.
- Clinton also outpaces Jeb Bush by 20 percentage points. 58% of voters nationally support Clinton compared with 38% for Bush. Four percent are undecided. In December, Clinton had 53% while Bush received 41%. Six percent, then, were undecided.
- When matched against Rand Paul, Clinton leads by 20 percentage points. A majority — 58% — supports Clinton compared with 38% for Paul. Four percent are undecided. In that previous McClatchy-Marist survey, 55% backed Clinton while 40% were for Paul. Five percent were undecided.
- Against Chris Christie, Clinton — 58% — outdistances Christie — 37% — by 21 percentage points. Six percent are undecided. When this question was reported in January, 50% of voters were for Clinton while 37% were for Christie. 12% were undecided.
- Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — support Clinton compared with 37% for Marco Rubio. Four percent are undecided. In December, 52% backed Clinton while 42% supported Rubio. Five percent were undecided.
- Against Sarah Palin, Clinton receives 62% to 35% for Palin. Three percent are undecided. Two months ago, 59% were behind Clinton compared with 36% for Palin. Four percent were undecided.
A majority of registered voters — 52% — has a favorable view of Clinton. 43% have an unfavorable impression of her, and 5% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. In January, 51% of voters thought well of Clinton. 39% had a lesser view of her, and 10% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
Half of Americans, including a slim majority of voters, give Clinton high marks for her tenure as Secretary of State. 50% of adults approve of the job she did. This includes 18% who think she did an excellent job and 32% who believe she did a good one. 28% rate her performance as fair while 19% give her poor marks. Three percent are unsure. Among registered voters, 51% of voters think highly of the job Clinton did as Secretary of State. 26% report she did an average job while 20% say she fell short. Three percent of voters are unsure.
Romney’s favorability is upside down. 51% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney while 43% have a favorable one. Six percent have either never heard of Romney or are unsure how to rate him.
Christie’s favorable rating is also more negative than positive. A plurality of voters — 46% — has an unfavorable view of him. 33% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of Christie or are unsure how to rate him. Fewer voters are unsure about Christie’s image, to his detriment. In January, 32% of voters had a negative view of Christie. 29% had a positive one, and 39% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
Americans’ opinions regarding Christie’s involvement in the George Washington Bridge controversy have flipped. 46% of adults nationally currently say Christie is not telling the truth while 42% think he is. 12% are unsure. In January, 44% of Americans reported Christie was being mostly truthful while 33% thought Christie was not being completely honest. 23%, then, were unsure.
Crowded Field for 2016 GOP Nomination
Among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest for the 2016 Republican nomination stands:
- 13% Chris Christie
- 13% Mike Huckabee
- 12% Marco Rubio
- 9% Rand Paul
- 9% Paul Ryan
- 8% Jeb Bush
- 8% Sarah Palin
- 7% Scott Walker
- 5% Ted Cruz
- 2% Rick Perry
- 2% Rick Santorum
- 1% John Kasich
- 12% undecided
“The Democrats may have a clear front-runner in Hillary Clinton,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, front-runner is not the word you would use to describe the GOP field.”
When this question was last reported in January, Christie had the support of 16%, 12% backed Ryan while 9% were for Paul. Bush had the support of 8%, and 7% were for Rubio. Six percent backed Perry, and Santorum and Cruz each received 5%. Four percent were for Scott Walker while 3% were behind Bobby Jindal. One in four — 25% — was undecided.
Which candidate would be the second choice of Republican and Republican leaning independents without Christie and Palin in the contest? Here is how the race stands among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents:
- 15% Marco Rubio
- 15% Mike Huckabee
- 13% Paul Ryan
- 12% Jeb Bush
- 11% Rand Paul
- 8% Scott Walker
- 6% Ted Cruz
- 4% Rick Santorum
- 3% Rick Perry
- 1% John Kasich
- 14% undecided