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2/19: It’s Getting Later Earlier

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Some time back, we added 24 x 7 and the permanent campaign to America’s political lexicon.  But, it sure seems like we are pushing the envelope this time around with about 20 GOP wannabes off and (almost) running for their party’s nomination.  On the Democratic side, things are atypically more […]

2/15: 2016 Wide Open GOP Field in Early Caucus and Primary States… Clinton Solid Front-Runner on Democratic Side

Taking an early look at the key presidential caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a Republican front-runner fails to emerge.  In Iowa, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker vie for the top spot among the state’s potential Republican electorate. In New […]

7/25: Candidate Clinton? 50-50 Odds Are Never a Sure Bet

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff There are two schools of thought on whether Hillary Clinton is running for president in 2016.  Some say she is and some say she isn’t. But, is Clinton in essence already on the campaign trail?  I don’t know.  What have we learned about whether she will eventually run for real?  […]

11/28: Mitofsky Still Teaching

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff It’s been 6 years since our mentor, colleague, and friend’s death.   Warren Mitofsky was a clear thinker and major innovator of the public polling community.  Beyond his methodological rigor, he communicated long-lasting, yet, simple messages to the profession.  His thoughts remain vital through the 2012 election cycle. Despite this year’s successful […]

11/5: On Election Eve…

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff When it comes to public opinion polls, this election cycle has had more shoot the messenger reactions than ever before.  There’s little doubt that pollsters are  in season for October and November. Maybe this results from the growing twitter-sphere. I can’t recall the number of times I’ve had to explain […]

6/27: From the Survey to the Trail

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Sure. Early public polls both national and state are open to the charge of not being predictive.  National polls carry the added burden of not necessarily reflecting the electoral college state-by-state vote. Now, if you don’t want to be a public poll-tracker but are interested in the ups and downs […]

5/22: From the Primary to the General Election Campaign

By John Sparks Which states will prove to be key battleground states this presidential election season?  What impact could President Barack Obama’s stand on gay marriage have on the contest, and what can we expect during the campaign’s summer months?  The Marist Poll’s John Sparks visits with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl […]

2/23: The Latest on the GOP Race

By John Sparks Where does the race for the Republican nomination stand?  What are the chances of a brokered convention?  And, who has the best odds against President Barack Obama?   The Marist Poll’s John Sparks visits with Marist Poll Analyst and syndicated political columnist Carl Leubsdorf who writes a weekly column for The Dallas […]

1/4: Iowa Polls Chronicle Caucus Contest

The often cited fear of pollster par-excellence Richard Wirthlin about Iowa being the “ultimate sand trap” for pollsters did not materialize this time around.   In fact, throughout the summer and in the closing days of the campaign, the public polls provided an accurate narrative of the surges and declines of candidate support.  And, there were […]

1/3: Pollster Spin for Wednesday Morning

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff Dear Pollsters, Pols, and Press, As you head to New Hampshire, I thought I’d save you time by providing a little pre-caucus, post-caucus pollster spin. Case #1: Why our Iowa polls were actually very, very accurate really. 1.       We interviewed over 3,000 people to eventually distill the number down to […]