8/5: NYS Voters Wary About Moreland Commission Controversy, But it Doesn’t Change Much for Governor’s Contest in November

August 5, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive

Many New York State voters believe Governor Cuomo’s staff acted inappropriately when they engaged with members of the Moreland Commission which was established by the governor to root out corruption in state government.  A majority of registered voters also think the governor’s office did not proceed ethically although few think any laws were breached.  And, there are political costs for the governor’s image among voters familiar with the controversy.

©istockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr

But, the big takeaway for this November’s elections is that most of the electorate considers the controversy to be either a minor factor or not a factor at all in deciding their vote for governor.  Governor Andrew Cuomo still outpaces his GOP opponent Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino by a wide margin although his lead has narrowed slightly from a month ago.  Cuomo continues to receive support from seven in ten Democrats (slipping from eight in ten) and is backed by a majority of independents.  He still has support among nearly a quarter of Republicans although that is down from three in ten last month.  His approval rating as governor is little changed. There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable impression of the governor.

In a region beset by gubernatorial scandals, New Yorkers generally stand by their governor.  Governor Christie’s traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge is seen as worse than Governor Cuomo’s Moreland Commission controversy.

“Among voters keyed into the issue the political storm is taking a toll on their views of Governor Cuomo.  But, he has managed to keep the fallout at arm’s length where his re-election is concerned,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The problem for Rob Astorino is that the controversy involving Governor Cuomo’s office has not, so far, shaken up the race.  Neither have voters’ impressions of Astorino improved.”

Complete August 5, 2014 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Poll Points

  • 62% of registered voters believe Governor Cuomo’s staff should not have had input into the work of the Moreland Commission.  This includes 71% of Republicans, 63% of independents, and even, 59% of Democrats who share this view.
  • 52% of the electorate thinks the governor’s staff did something unethical by getting involved with the work of the commission, but only 11% believe they did something illegal. These opinions are largely consistent across party lines.
  • Only 23% of voters see the Moreland Commission controversy as a major factor in deciding their vote for governor in November.  71% describe the controversy as either a minor factor, 41%, or no factor at all, 30%.
  • 54% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Governor Cuomo’s re-election compared with 23% who back Republican Rob Astorino.  Last month, Cuomo outdistanced Astorino, 59% to 24%.
  • The decline in Cuomo’s margin over Astorino is the result of a decrease in the governor’s support among Democrats from 81% to 72%, and a drop in the proportion of Republicans who back the governor from 30% to 24%.  Regionally, the governor’s dip is greatest in New York City where his support fell from 80% to 66% in the month.  Statistically, there is little change, overall, in support for Astorino.
  • Cuomo still bests Astorino, 44% to 32%, among voters who believe New York State needs major changes or is broken and beyond repair.  But, last month he led Astorino by 19 points among these voters, 50% to 31%.
  • 53% of registered voters currently have a favorable impression of Governor Cuomo, the lowest rating he’s received since taking office (Trend).  His score continues to decline from 58% last month and 63% since March.
  • Astorino is still not known by a majority of voters.  53%, do not offer an opinion of him.  22% rate him positively, and 25% view him negatively.
  • Democratic primary challenger Zephyr Teachout is not known by most voters.

Moreland Meddling, The More You Know…
 

  • Since the Moreland Controversy made news, only 49% of voters are now confident the governor is changing the way things work in Albany for the better, a decline from 55% last month.  Among voters who are familiar with the Moreland Commission controversy (45% of the electorate), 42% think the governor is changing Albany for the better, and 53% disagree.  In contrast, 56% of voters who are unfamiliar with the controversy think Governor Cuomo is making progress in how state government works, and 31% do not hold this view.
  • 46% of the electorate believes Governor Cuomo is fulfilling campaign promises, and 39% do not.  47% of voters who are aware of the controversy do not think the governor is keeping his campaign promises.  For those who are unaware of the controversy, 32% share this view.
  • Cuomo’s job approval as governor, overall, is 47%, little changed from the 48% he received in July (Trend).  Among voters familiar with the controversy, 43% give the governor a positive job rating.  In contrast, the governor receives a 51% approval score from voters unfamiliar with the recent Moreland Commission news.  The legislature continues to be unpopular.  27% approve of the work of the New York State Senate, (Trend) and 27% give a positive score to the New York State Assembly (Trend).
  • As noted above, a majority of voters statewide, 53%, have a favorable impression of the governor including 52% of those who have heard about the controversy and 54% of those who have not.  But, the governor’s unfavorable rating is 39% among voters who are aware compared with only 25% among those who are unaware of the controversy.
  • 60% of voters see Cuomo as a good leader for the state, and 58% believe he cares about the average person.  These views are relatively unchanged from last month. Yet, among voters who have heard of the controversy, 56% think Governor Cuomo is a good leader compared with 64% among those who are unaware of the issue with the Moreland Commission.
  • There is little movement in voters’ views about the direction of the state since last month.  48% of voters think the state is on the right path, and 45% do not.  In July, 47% had a positive opinion of the course the state was taking, and 46% had a negative view (Trend).  The awareness of the controversy makes no difference in voters’ assessment of the direction of the state.
  • Although a slim majority of voters, 51%, think the state is in need of major changes, and an additional 6% believe it is broken and beyond repair.  The numbers of New Yorkers who think the state is in need of major change has declined during Cuomo’s tenure as governor.  When Cuomo first took office in January 2011, 73% of voters wanted to see major changes in state government, and 10% thought the state was could not be fixed.

 
Cuomo vs. Christie:  Competing Controversies

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/9: Cuomo Outdistancing Largely Unknown GOP Challenger Astorino

©istockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll. Cuomo is advantaged by strong support from his Democratic base, in addition, to leading among independents and even attracting a notable proportion of Republicans.  Despite voters’ lingering concerns about the economy, Astorino has had difficulty getting traction.  A majority of voters do not have an opinion of him, and those who do, divide.  Governor Cuomo even outperforms his challenger among voters who see the state as still needing major changes or who see taxes or economic development as the top state priority.

“The combination of Cuomo’s standing and voters’ lack of familiarity with Astorino has resulted in a lopsided contest for governor in this Democratic state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Getting well known requires a lot of resources which will be more than matched by the governor’s war chest.”

Click Here for Complete July 9, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

Voters’ Impressions of the Governor Account for Wide Lead

 63%, overall, say Cuomo is a good leader for NYS, and 60% believe he cares about the average person.

Economy Still Top Challenge

Voters point to a number of economic issues when asked about their top priority for the state.  Jobs, economic development, and taxes are three of the top four issues cited.  Education ranks second, overall.

  • Voters divide about whether the state is on track. (Trend) 47% believe it is on the right path, while 46% disagree. This is comparable to results seen in March.
  • 60% still believe the state remains in a recession although this is down from 65% four months ago. (Trend) Impressions about the economy have improved slightly in New York City and its suburbs, but there has been little change Upstate.
  • A sign that voters may be more optimistic about the state’s economic future is that 56% believe the worst of the economic slump has passed.  A majority of voters in all three regions of the state share this view.

For more analysis see Lee Miringoff’s blog, “Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change.”

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

3/6: Cuomo Pummels GOP Opponents, But…

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo’s re-election prospects are promising.  Cuomo outdistances each of his potential GOP rivals by at least 40 percentage points.  Cuomo also remains well-liked by most registered voters despite the lowest job approval rating the governor has received since taking office in 2011.  So, what accounts for the sharp drop in Cuomo’s job performance rating?  The view of many voters that the state’s economy is still struggling plays a role.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Governor Cuomo’s opponents face an uphill fight to unseat him this November,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Voters are comfortable with Cuomo but he still needs to convince many that the economy is turning around.”

Click Here for Complete March 6, 2014 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Looking ahead to this November’s gubernatorial election, Cuomo maintains a robust lead over his potential Republican challengers.  Among registered voters in New York State, here is how these hypothetical contests stand:

  • Cuomo — 65% — outpaces Rob Astorino — 25% — by 40 percentage points.  One in ten voters in New York State — 10% — is undecided.  Cuomo — 65% — had a similar advantage against Astorino — 23% — when NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question last November.  At that time, 12% of voters were undecided.
  • Against Carl Paladino, Cuomo has the support of nearly seven in ten voters — 68%.  This compares with 25% for Paladino.  Eight percent are undecided.  Last fall, 67% backed Cuomo while 24% were for Paladino.  Nine percent, then, were undecided.
  • Cuomo — 70% — trounces Donald Trump — 26% — by 44 percentage points.  Five percent are undecided.  In that previous survey, 70% supported Cuomo compared with 24% for Trump.  Seven percent were undecided.

Cuomo’s re-election chances stand firm despite a steep decline in his job approval rating.  42% of registered voters statewide approve of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This includes 7% who think he is doing an excellent job and 35% who believe he is doing a good one.  38% rate Cuomo’s job performance as fair, and nearly one in five voters — 18% — calls it poor.  Three percent are unsure.

In November, 52% of voters gave Cuomo high marks.  Included here were 8% who thought Cuomo was doing an excellent job and 44% who said he was doing a good one.  31%, at that time, thought the governor was doing an average job while 13% reported he was doing a poor one.  Three percent were unsure.

Regardless of party, region, or race, there has been a drop in Cuomo’s approval rating.  However, the largest change has occurred among Latino and African American voters.

By race:

  • Among registered voters who are Latino, 41% approve of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 62% who had this view in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
  • 42% of African American voters, compared with 57% in the fall, think well of how Cuomo is performing as governor.
  • Among white voters, 44% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This compares with 49% in November. 

By party:

  • 51% of Democrats give Cuomo high marks while 63% did so in that previous survey.
  • Among Republicans, 33% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  39% shared this view in November.
  • 34% of non-enrolled voters give Cuomo high marks while nearly half — 48% — did so in the fall.

By region:

  • 50% of voters in New York City approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This compares with 56% in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
  • In the suburbs of New York City, 45% think well of how Cuomo is doing his job while 57% said the same in November.
  • 35% of upstate voters give Cuomo high marks while 47% had this opinion in that previous survey.

Voters’ views of the recession have impacted Cuomo’s job approval rating.  A slim majority of those who think the Empire State is not in a recession — 51% — think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with only 37% of voters who say New York is in a recession.

How many voters statewide think New York is in a recession?  Close to two-thirds — 65% — believe the state is under the cloud of a recession.  34% say we are not in an economic slump, and 1% is unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who think New York is in a recession.  When this question was last reported in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s survey last April, 58% said the state was in a recession.  39% thought New York was not, and 3% were unsure. 

While Cuomo’s approval rating has fallen, his favorability remains strong.  63% of voters have a positive view of the governor while 33% have a negative impression of him.  Four percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This is little changed from November when 66% said they liked the governor.  28% reported they disliked him, and 6% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“Governor Cuomo is bolstered by a high favorability rating,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “His lower job performance score is not costing him at the ballot box.”

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

Table: NYS in a Recession?

Table: NYS in a Recession Over Time

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Voters Weigh In on Potential GOP Hopefuls 

Are Cuomo’s potential challengers viewed positively by voters?  61% of voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump.  36% think well of him, and 4% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at Carl Paladino, 30% like him while 40% have a lesser opinion of him.  Three in ten voters — 30% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Rob Astorino is little known to a plurality of voters.  While 25% think well of him and 29% have a negative impression of Astorino, 46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When looking at Republicans statewide, Trump has the highest favorable rating.  60% of Republican voters like Trump while 37% do not.  Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When it comes to Paladino, there is little consensus among Republicans.  38% think highly of him while 31% do not.  32% have either never heard of Paladino or are unsure how to rate him.  Astorino is not well known among Republicans.  34% have a positive view of him while 17% have a negative opinion of him.  However, nearly half of Republicans — 49% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Donald Trump Favorability

Table: Carl Paladino Favorability

Table: Rob Astorino Favorability

Making Headway?

While a majority of voters think Governor Cuomo is improving Albany for the better, fewer say he is having a positive impact on the state, overall.

56% of New York voters think Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  This compares with 40% who disagree with that opinion.  Three percent are unsure.  In November, 61% thought Cuomo was making positive inroads in Albany while 35% did not think Cuomo was changing it for the better.  Four percent, at that time, were unsure.

However, when it comes to the impact Cuomo is having on New York State, 45% say he is improving it.  23% report Cuomo is changing it for the worse, and 29% think he is not having any effect on the Empire State.  Three percent are unsure.

What do voters think of Cuomo’s political ideology?

36% call him a liberal.  46% say he is a moderate, and 12% describe him as a conservative.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since November when 35% thought the governor was liberal.  45% believed he was a moderate, and 11% said he was conservative.  Nine percent were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on New York State

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

Directional Divide 

50% of New York voters think the state is moving in the right direction.  However, 47% say it is moving in the wrong one.  Three percent are unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 50% thought the state was on course.  45% reported it had fallen off the track, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Status Quo for Schumer and Gillibrand

53% of registered voters believe Senator Chuck Schumer is doing either an excellent — 15% — or good — 38% — job in office.  30% describe his performance as fair while 14% believe he is doing a poor job.  Three percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.  Schumer’s approval rating is solid.  In the fall, 56% thought highly of how Schumer was doing in the U.S. Senate.  26% rated his performance as average while 15% thought he fell short.  Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Kirsten Gillibrand’s job approval rating, 45% say she is doing either an excellent — 10% — or good — 35% — job in office.  31% say she is doing a fair job while 12% think she is performing poorly.  11% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Previously, 47% gave Gillibrand high marks.  30% thought her performance was fair, and 12% said it was lacking.  12% had either never heard of Gillibrand or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

November 26, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is a strong, early favorite to win re-election as he heads into 2014.  When matched against several potential Republican gubernatorial candidates, Cuomo leads each of them by at least 40 percentage points.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Right now, Governor Cuomo is in good shape to win a second term.  None of Governor Cuomo’s likely challengers are in striking distance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters think any plans Cuomo might have for 2016 need to take a backseat until Hillary Clinton declares her intentions.”

Click Here for Complete November 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

If the 2014 election for New York State Governor were held today, here is how Governor Cuomo would fare among registered voters in New York State:

  • Against Steve McLaughlin, Cuomo would garner 64% while McLaughlin would receive 24%.  12% are undecided.
  • 65% would back Cuomo compared with 23% for Rob Astorino.  12% are undecided.
  • If Cuomo were to face off in a rematch against Carl Paladino, Cuomo — 67% — would defeat Paladino — 24% — by 43 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • 70% of registered voters would support Cuomo in a contest against Donald Trump — 24%.  Seven percent are undecided.

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approves of the job the governor is doing.  This includes 8% of voters who think Cuomo is doing an excellent job and 44% who describe Cuomo’s job performance as good.  31% give Cuomo fair marks while 13% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 54% of registered voters approved of how Mr. Cuomo was performing in office.  27% rated his job as fair while 14% believed his performance was subpar.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

By party:

  • Cuomo’s approval rating is strong among his base.  63% of Democrats statewide think well of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 66% in April.
  • Among Republicans, 39% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This is little changed from the spring when 37% had this view.
  • Cuomo’s approval rating has changed little among non-enrolled voters.  48% of these voters approve of Cuomo’s job performance compared with 46% in April.

By region:

  • New York voters’ rating of Cuomo has changed little throughout the state.
  • In New York City, 56% of voters give Cuomo high marks.  A similar 58% had this opinion in the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll.
  • In the suburbs of New York City, 57% applaud Cuomo’s job performance.  Here, too, Cuomo’s approval rating is status quo.  59% of suburban voters thought this way in April.
  • A plurality of upstate voters — 47% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is doing his job.  This is comparable to the 48% in this region who said the same in the spring. 

Cuomo also continues to be well-liked in New York State.  Two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — have a favorable view of the governor.  28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 6% have either never heard of Cuomo or are unsure how to rate him.  In April, similar proportions of registered voters shared these views.  65% had a positive view of Cuomo.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 8% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/McLaughlin

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Cuomo Viewed as Making Positive Mark on Albany and Focused on Empire State

About six in ten registered voters in New York State — 61% — think Cuomo is changing the way things in Albany work for the better.  35% do not think the governor is improving Albany, and 4% are unsure.  In April, 58% of voters thought Governor Cuomo was positively changing state government.  33% had the opposite view, and 9% were unsure.

Is Cuomo paying too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to the Empire State?  59% do not think he is focused on the national agenda while 35% say he is.  Six percent are unsure.  In the spring, 51% of voters believed Cuomo’s attention was focused on New York while 40% thought he was too concerned with national politics.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

What are voters’ perceptions of Cuomo’s political ideology?  45% say he is a moderate.  35% think he is a liberal while 11% believe he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 38% described Cuomo as a moderate.  34% said he was a liberal, and 13% reported he was conservative.  15%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

2016: Cuomo Trails Clinton by 50 Points Among Dems, but Both Lead Christie 

If Cuomo were to turn to the national stage and run for president of the United States in 2016, what would his electoral chances look like?  In this hypothetical contest for the Democratic nomination, among New York State registered Democrats, Cuomo comes in a very distant second behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Clinton leads all of her potential Democratic opponents by more than four to one in New York.

64% of registered Democrats statewide support Clinton compared with 14% for Andrew Cuomo.  Eight percent back Vice President Joe Biden while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren garners 6%.  Three percent support Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and 5% are undecided.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads a crowded GOP primary field.  Among registered Republicans in New York State, Christie has the backing of 40%.  10% are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul while the same proportion — 10% — supports Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the support of 8% compared with 5% for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each garners 3%.  New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has the backing of 2%.  An additional 2% support former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.  15% are undecided.

However, when matched against Cuomo or Clinton in the general election contest, Christie does not fare as well in this very blue state.  Cuomo leads Christie, 51% to 44%, among New York’s registered voters.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has a wider lead over Christie.  57% of registered voters in New York State support Clinton compared with 39% for Christie.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (NYS Democrats)

Table: 2016 Republican Presidential Primary (NYS Republicans)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Cuomo/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Clinton/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Voters Don’t Blame Cuomo for State’s Sluggish Economy 

67% of registered voters think Governor Cuomo inherited the state’s economic woes while 27% say the condition of the economy is a result of his policies.  Five percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question, 74% thought Cuomo inherited New York’s economic slump while 17% said the state’s economic conditions are mostly a result of his own policies.  Nine percent were unsure.

Looking at how New York’s economy is performing, a slim majority of registered voters in New York — 51% — say it has stayed about the same.  This compares with 20% who report it has gotten better, and 29% who say it has gotten worse.  In April, nearly identical proportions shared these views.  51% thought New York’s economy was steady state.  21% said it was getting better, and 29% believed it was getting worse.

On the personal side, 52% of New York voters believe their personal family finances will not change in the coming year. 31% think they will get better while 17% believe they will get worse.  In March, 56% said their money matters would be steady state.  25% thought they would improve while 19% said they would decline.

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Opposition to Hydrofracking Grows

On the issue of hydrofracking, 47% of adults in New York oppose hydrofracking at the Marcellus Shale to extract natural gas.  37% support this technique, and 16% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 39% opposed hydrofracking while 40% supported it.  21%, at that time, were unsure.

The views of registered voters mirror those of New Yorkers overall.  49% are against using hydrofracking while 39% support it. 12% are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  41% opposed hydrofracking, and 40% supported it.  One in five — 20% — was unsure.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Still in the Basement

While a majority of voters approve of Governor Cuomo’s job performance, the New York State Senate and Assembly do not fare as well.  Only 27% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job the Senate is doing.  Included here are 2% who say they are doing an excellent job and 25% who think they are doing a good one.  47% rate the legislative body’s performance as fair.  22% report they are doing a poor job, and 4% have either never heard of the Senate or are unsure how to rate it.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last released this question in April, 29% gave the Senate high marks.  41% thought its performance was average, and 26% said it fell short.  Four percent, at that time, either never heard of it or were unsure how to rate it.

When it comes to the New York State Assembly, 26% think it is doing either an excellent — 2% — or good — 24% — job in office.  47% rate this legislative body’s performance as fair while 23% report its job is subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

In that previous survey, 27% of voters thought highly of how the Assembly was performing its job.  42% gave it mediocre marks while 24% said it was performing poorly.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Half Say State Moving in Right Direction 

50% of registered voters think New York State is traveling on the right course.  45%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 5% are unsure.  In April, 53% of voters said the Empire State was on the right course.  41% believed it was off track.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Steady State for Schumer and Gillibrand

A majority of voters continue to give Chuck Schumer a positive rating for his performance as senator.  56% of registered voters in New York State approve of how Schumer is doing his job.  This includes 17% who say Schumer is doing an excellent job and 39% who think he is doing a good one.  26% rate Schumer’s performance in office as fair while 15% say he is doing a poor job.  Four percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 58% praised Schumer.  24% thought he did an average job, and 13% said he fell short.  Six percent, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There has also been little change in the perception of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance.  47% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent — 13% — or good — 34% — job.  30% give Gillibrand fair marks while 12% say she is performing poorly in her post.  12% have either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

In April, 48% approved of Gillibrand’s job performance.  27% gave her average grades while 9% said she performed poorly.  17% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Obama Approval Rating at Lowest Point in New York State

Four in ten registered voters — 40% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is Obama’s lowest approval rating in New York since taking office.  Included in Mr. Obama’s approval rating are 11% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good one.  25% give him fair marks while 36% rate the president’s job performance as poor.  Less than 1% has either never heard of Obama or are unsure how to rate him.

The president’s approval rating has plummeted.  In April, 52% gave the president high marks.  22% thought his job performance was average while 26% said he fell short.  One percent, at that time, had either never heard of Obama or was unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

7/24: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Contest

If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to announce a candidacy for the Presidency, she would be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  Clinton outdistances her closest potential opponent, Vice President Joe Biden, by almost five-to-one in a hypothetical contest.  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley each receives single-digit support.  On the Republican side, there is no clear frontrunner among the pack of potential candidates.

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Click Here for Complete July 24, 2013 USA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  McClatchy-Marist Poll*

“Get ready for round two of Hillary Clinton as the inevitable,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The big question is whether she runs.”

 Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 63% Hillary Clinton
  • 13% Joe Biden
  •   6% Andrew Cuomo
  •   1% Martin O’Malley
  • 18% undecided

Do Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a nominee who will continue President Obama’s policies, or would they rather a nominee who will move in another direction?  They divide.  46% believe it is more important to have a nominee who will move President Obama’s policies forward while 44% want someone with a new vision.  10% are unsure.

Looking at the Republican contest, among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 15% Chris Christie
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  • 10% Jeb Bush
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   7% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   2% Scott Walker
  •   1% Bobby Jindal
  •   1% Susana Martinez
  •   25% undecided

“In a crowded field, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at the top of the list,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “None of the potential Republican candidates who appeal to the more activist base of the party have broken free of the pack.”

By more than two-to-one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents would prefer a Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win.  Nearly two-thirds — 64% — think it is more important to have a candidate who stands firmly on Republican ground.  This compares with 31% who believe the priority should be nominating a candidate who can defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

Clinton Leads GOP Opponents in Potential 2016 General Election Matchups

Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner not only for her party’s nomination but also against the leading Republican presidential wannabes for 2016.  Chris Christie and Jeb Bush run the most competitively against Clinton yet she still leads Christie by 6 percentage points and Bush by 8. She outdistances her other possible Republican opponents by double-digits.

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 47% — leads Chris Christie — 41% — by 6 percentage points.  12% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, Clinton — 46% — and Christie — 43% — were neck and neck.  11% were undecided.
  • Against Bush, Clinton is ahead by 8 percentage points.  Here, Clinton receives 48% to 40% for Bush.  12% are undecided.  In April, Clinton — 54% — led Bush — 38% — by 16 percentage points.  Eight percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a contest against Rubio, Clinton has a 12 percentage point advantage.  She receives the support of 50% of registered voters compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question.  Clinton — 52% — outpaced Rubio — 40% — in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
  • When matched against Paul, 50% of voters are for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% are undecided.  In April, 52% were for Clinton while 41% were for Paul.  Seven percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton when matched against Ryan — 37%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 52% — also outdistances Perry — 36%.  12% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/24: Obama Leads Romney by 26 Percentage Points in New York

In one of the bluest of the blue states, President Barack Obama has the support of 61% of New York likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  This compares with 35% for Mitt Romney.  Only 1% supports another candidate, and 3% are undecided.  President Obama won the state in 2008, 63% to 36% for McCain.

No surprises in New York,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “It has been and continues to be a very blue state.  Senator Kirsten Gilibrand is running ahead of her score two years ago and ahead of Obama.”

Click Here for Complete October 24, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

Key points:

  • Party.  87% of Democrats who are likely to vote support the president while 77% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Romney.  Nearly one in five likely Republican voters — 18% — is behind Obama.  Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to go to the polls, a majority — 54% — backs Obama while 37% are for Romney.
  • Enthusiasm.  57% of likely voters in New York are very enthusiastic about casting their ballot next month.  Looking at each candidate’s supporters, 60% of likely voters behind Obama express a high degree of enthusiasm.  This compares with 55% of those who back Romney.
  • Intensity of Support.  More than eight in ten likely voters in New York — 82% — are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.  16% somewhat support their pick while just 3% might vote differently on Election Day.  Less than 1% is unsure.  83% of Obama’s supporters are firmly in his camp while a similar proportion of Romney’s backers — 80% — say they will not waver in their support.
  • Gender.  62% of women who are likely to vote support the president while 33% are for Romney.  It’s a similar story among men who are likely to cast a ballot.  59% are behind Obama compared with 37% for Romney.
  • Age.  Regardless of age, Obama leads Romney.  67% of likely voters under 45 years old support the president.  This compares with 29% for Romney.  Among those who are 45 and older, Obama — 57% — outpaces Romney — 38%.

Among registered voters in New York, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Obama receives the support of 62% to 32% for Romney.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NY Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support (NY Likely Voters)

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (NY Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

More than six in ten likely voters in New York — 63% — have a favorable impression of Obama.  35%, though, have an unfavorable perception of the president.  Two percent are unsure.

The opposite is true for Romney.  A majority — 54% — has an unfavorable view of him while 41% have a positive opinion of him.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (NY Likely Voters)

Obama Bests Romney on Economy, Foreign Policy

Which candidate do registered voters think will do a better job handling the economy?  57% believe Obama is more capable while 36% say Romney is the candidate for the job.  Seven percent are unsure.

Likely voters agree.  56% of New York likely voters think Obama will turn around the U.S. economy compared with 38% who say Romney will.  Five percent are unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, the president — 62% — outdistances Romney — 32% — among New York registered voters.  Five percent are unsure.  Voters were interviewed prior to Monday night’s debate on the topic.

Among likely voters, 62% think Obama is the stronger candidate in the foreign policy realm while 34% believe Romney is.  Four percent are unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (NY Likely Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (NY Likely Voters)

Gillibrand Leads Long by Nearly Three to One in U.S. Senate Race in New York

In the U.S. Senate race in New York, Democratic incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has the support of 68% of likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee.  Her Republican challenger, Wendy Long, receives the backing of 24% of these voters.  Less than 1% is for another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Key points:

  • Party.  89% of Democrats who are likely to vote support Gillibrand while 54% of Republicans who are likely to cast a ballot are for Long.  However, even 34% of likely Republican voters are behind Gillibrand.  Looking at non-enrolled voters statewide, 64% back Gillibrand compared with 27% for Long.
  • Region.  Regardless of region, Gillibrand is ahead of Long.  In New York City, Gillibrand has 77% to 16% for Long, among likely voters.  Gillibrand — 65% — also outpaces Long — 26% — in the suburbs of New York City.  Upstate, Gillibrand has 62% to Long’s 29%.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 68% support Gillibrand while 22% back Long.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in New York: Gillibrand/Long (NY Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in New York: Gillibrand/Long (NY Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee)

A First for Gillibrand…Majority Approves of Job Performance

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval rating has climbed above 50% among registered voters for the first time since she took office in March of 2009.  55% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job.  This includes 13% who believe Gillibrand’s performance is excellent and 42% who say she is doing a good job.  28% rate her performance as fair while 8% report Gillibrand is performing poorly.  10% are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s April survey, 42% of registered voters statewide gave Gillibrand high marks.  28% believed she was doing a fair job while 14% thought she fell short.  16%, at the time, were unsure.

Gillibrand has made in-roads with her Democratic base.  63% of Democrats in New York praise her job performance.  This compares with 50% six months ago.  Gillibrand’s approval rating has also experienced a boost among non-enrolled voters statewide.  48% now give Gillibrand high marks compared with 32% in April.  There has been a slight increase among Republicans.  47% currently believe Gillibrand is doing well in her post compared with 40% in NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.

Regionally, the largest change has occurred in New York City where 61% of registered voters applaud Gillibrand’s job performance.  In April, just 36% said the same.  In the suburbs of the city, 54% think well of the job the senator is doing in office, up from 38% six months ago.  Upstate, 50% of registered voters give Gillibrand kudos compared with 48% previously.

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

Schumer’s Approval Rating Steady

Senator Chuck Schumer’s job approval rating is consistent.  55% of New York registered voters give Schumer a thumbs-up.  Included here are 18% who think he is doing an excellent job and 37% who believe he is doing a good one.  27% rate his job performance as fair while 13% say it is subpar.  Five percent are unsure.

In April, 54% of registered voters thought highly of Schumer’s performance in office while one in four — 25% — said he was doing a fair job.  16% thought he fell short, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

Nearly Six in Ten Applaud Cuomo’s Job Performance

Looking at the approval rating of Governor Andrew Cuomo, 59% of registered voters in New York, including 15% who think he is doing an excellent job and 44% who say he is doing a good one, approve of the governor’s job performance.  30% rate it as fair, and 7% believe he misses the mark.  Only 3% are unsure.

Since Cuomo took office, he has enjoyed positive approval ratings.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s April survey, 58% of registered voters praised Cuomo’s job performance.  29% thought it was average, and 9% believed it was subpar.  Five percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time (NY Registered Voters)

Optimism about NY State Grows to Highest Level in a Decade

When thinking about the direction of New York State, a majority — 56% — believes the Empire State is moving in the right direction.  This is the largest proportion of registered voters statewide to have this view since September of 2002 when the same proportion — 56% — believed New York was on the right track.  Currently, 39% think the state is traveling in the wrong direction, and 6% are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question six months ago, 51% of registered voters said the state was on target.  43%, however, thought it had fallen off-course, and 6% were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS (NY Registered Voters)

Table: Direction of NYS (NY Registered Voters Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/16: Nearly Six in Ten Give Cuomo Kudos

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo remains in the good graces of New York State voters.  According to this NY1/YNN-Marist Poll, 58% of registered voters statewide approve of the job Cuomo is doing in office.  Included here are 14% who believe the governor is doing an excellent job and 44% who report he is doing a good one.  29% give Mr. Cuomo fair marks while 9% think he is performing poorly.  Five percent are unsure.

Andrew Cuomo

Click Here for Complete Monday, April 16, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s January survey, the same proportion — 58% — applauded Cuomo’s performance, 29% thought he was doing a fair job, and only 7% believed the governor’s performance was subpar.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

“Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to be popular across the state and across party lines,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Key points:

  • By party, 61% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 51% of non-enrolled voters in New York State approve of the job Governor Cuomo is doing in office.
  • When it comes to region, majorities in the suburbs of New York City — 63%, upstate — 56%, and in New York City — 55% — applaud Cuomo’s performance.
  • Governor Andrew Cuomo’s 58% job approval rating is nearly identical to that of his father, Governor Mario Cuomo, when it was measured in June of 1984.  In that survey, 57% of registered voters in New York approved of the elder Cuomo’s job performance.

Many voters in New York also think well of the governor.  Almost seven in ten — 69% — have a favorable impression of him while 21% have an unfavorable one.  10% are unsure.

Although Cuomo’s favorability is still high, it has dipped slightly since January when 76% had a positive view of Cuomo, 16% had a less than stellar impression of him, and 8% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

59% Say Cuomo’s Eyes on NYS, but About One in Three Sees Sights Set Higher

Nearly six in ten New York State registered voters — 59% — do not believe Cuomo is paying too much attention to national politics at the expense of New York State.  However, 33% think the governor is exerting too much energy on the nation’s affairs and not enough on those of the state.  Nine percent are unsure.

On other specifics of Cuomo’s image:

  • Seven in ten voters statewide — 70% — say Governor Cuomo is a good leader for New York State.  25% disagree, and 5% are unsure.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 76% reported Cuomo was a good leader, 18% said he was not, and 5% were unsure.
  • Many in New York State — 64% — view Cuomo as caring about the average person.  29% don’t have this impression, and 7% are unsure.
  • More than six in ten voters statewide — 62% — think Cuomo is fulfilling his campaign promises.  25% say he is not, and 13% are unsure.  These proportions are similar to those reported in January.  At that time, 65% reported Cuomo was keeping his word, 20% believed he strayed from the promises he made on the stump, and 15% were unsure.
  • 61% say Governor Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  30% think this isn’t the case, and 9% are unsure.  In January, those proportions stood at 68%, 26%, and 7%, respectively.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Caring About Average Person

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Cuomo Skilled on Budget, Say 59%

Almost six in ten registered voters in New York State — 59% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is handling the state’s budget.  34% disagree, and 7% are unsure.  Cuomo’s approval rating on the budget is down slightly from January when 65% gave the governor good marks on the issue.  29%, at that time, were displeased with how he was dealing with the budget, and 6% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Handling of the New York State Budget

Low Approval Ratings Continue for NYS Senate and Assembly

While many members of New York’s electorate praise the performance of Governor Cuomo, it’s a different story for members of the New York State Senate and Assembly.

22% of registered voters statewide approve of the job the State Senate is doing.  Included here are 3% who think the legislative body is doing an excellent job and 19% who say it is doing a good one.  45% bestow fair grades on the State Senate while 28% believe it is performing poorly.  Five percent are unsure.

In January, 26% approved of the State Senate’s job performance.  44% thought it was doing a fair job, and 26% reported it fell short.  Four percent, at the time, were unsure.

Looking at the State Assembly, only 24% like the way it is doing its job.  This includes 3% who rate this legislative body’s performance as excellent and 21% who say the State Assembly is doing a good job.  46% give it fair grades, and 25% think it is performing poorly.  Six percent are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous poll, 24% approved of the Assembly’s job performance.  42% reported it was doing a fair job, and 29% said it fell short.  Five percent, then, were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Slim Majority of New York Voters Remain Optimistic about State’s Direction

51% of New York registered voters believe the state is moving in the right direction while 43% say it is moving in the wrong one.  Six percent are unsure.  Voters’ optimism is on par with what it was in January.  At that time, 52% thought New York was on track while 40% believed it needed a course correction.  Eight percent, then, were unsure.  The January survey marked the first time in more than a decade that a majority of New York voters reported the state was on track.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS (Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

1/25: New York Voters More Optimistic About Direction of State

For the first time in nearly a decade, a majority of the New York electorate believes the Empire State is heading in the right direction.  52% of voters share this view while 40% believe it is moving in the wrong direction.  Eight percent are unsure.  The last time a majority of the electorate reported the state was on track was in October 2002 when 51% shared that view.

compass in hand

©istockphoto.com/DNY59

Click Here for Complete January 25th, 2012 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in November 2011, voters’ perceptions were quite different.  49% thought the state was travelling along the wrong path while 43% believed it was following the right one.  Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

“This represents a dramatic shift in public sentiment after a decade of frustration,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Positive reaction to Governor Cuomo is influencing how voters feel about the future of New York.”

Key points:

  • A significant change has been in the proportion of Republican voters statewide who believe New York is moving in the right direction.  Nearly half — 48% — currently believe this to be the case compared with 28% who had this view in November, a 20 percentage point increase.  There has been little change among Democrats — 58% — and non-enrolled voters — 47%.  53% and 44%, respectively, shared these views in the last poll.
  • Optimism has grown particularly in the suburbs and upstate.  A majority — 56% — of voters in the suburbs of New York City, 52% of those in New York City, and half — 50% — of voters upstate now think the state is on course.  This compares with 46%, 48%, and 39%, respectively, who had this opinion in November.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS (Over Time)

Trend Graph: Direction of New York State.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Nearly Six in Ten Approve of Cuomo’s Overall Job Performance

58% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job Governor Andrew Cuomo is doing in office.  This includes 12% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 46% who think he is doing a good one.  Almost three in ten — 29% — rate the governor’s performance as fair while 7% say he is missing the mark.  Seven percent are unsure.

Governor Cuomo continues to score high marks in the realm of public opinion.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 55% thought Cuomo was doing an above average job while 32% believed he was doing an average one.  Seven percent thought his performance was poor, and 6%, at the time, were unsure.

New York State voters also have an overall favorable impression of Governor Cuomo.  76% have this view of him while 16% have an unfavorable impression of the governor.  Eight percent are unsure.

In November, 70% had a positive impression of Mr. Cuomo while 19% had a negative one.  11% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

The Keys to Cuomo’s Current Success

What accounts for Cuomo’s solid job approval rating and favorable perception?  On the specifics of Cuomo’s image:

  • Slightly more than three in four registered voters in New York — 76% — think Cuomo is a good leader for the state.  18% disagree, and 5% are unsure.  In November, 75% believed Cuomo was a good leader.
  • 68% of voters say Cuomo is changing Albany for the better, 26% report he is not, and 7% are unsure.  There has been a slight increase in the proportion of voters who think Cuomo is positively impacting Albany.  63% thought this to be the case in November.
  • Many voters also believe the governor is keeping his campaign promises.  65% have this view while 20% disagree, and 15% are unsure.  There has been no change on this question.  65% had this opinion in NY1/YNN-Marist’s November survey.
  • When it comes to Cuomo’s ideology, nearly six in ten registered voters in New York — 57% — think Cuomo is a political moderate while 21% believe he is a liberal, and 14% report he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In November, slightly more voters reported Cuomo to be liberal.  At that time, 53% reported he was a moderate, 27% thought he was a liberal, and 13% said he was a conservative.  Eight percent were, then, unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

About Two-Thirds Approve of Cuomo’s Handling of the State’s Budget

65% of registered voters in New York approve of how Governor Andrew Cuomo is handling the state’s budget while 29% disapprove, and 6% are unsure.

Key points:

  • Majorities of voters upstate — 68% — in New York City — 65% — and in the suburbs of New York City — 59% — like how the governor is dealing with the state’s budget.

On the specifics of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget proposal:

  • 71% of registered voters statewide favor linking tougher standards for evaluating teachers to aid for school districts.  24% oppose such an action, and 5% are unsure.
  • Looking at the pensions of future public employees, 69% are for increasing the amount of money these workers personally contribute to their pension.  28% are against it, and 3% are unsure.
  • Nearly seven in ten registered voters — 68% — favor giving future public employees the option of an individual 401K instead of a government pension.  28% oppose it, and 4% are unsure.
  • Should the retirement age for public employees be raised from 62 years old to 65?  A majority of registered voters — 55% — think it should be while 43% don’t.  Only 1% is unsure.  There is an age difference.  62% of voters 45 years of age or older favor the increase while just 45% of those who are younger say the same.
  • More than six in ten registered voters statewide — 62% — are for spending one billion dollars, including some state money, to try to revitalize business in the Buffalo area.  About one in three — 33% — opposes such an action, and 5% are unsure.  Regionally, upstate voters — 67% — are most likely to support this proposal, but even 60% of voters in New York City and 57% of those in the suburbs of New York City favor the idea as well.
  • Voters divide about whether or not a new convention center near Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens should be built with $4 billion dollars of private funds.  47% oppose the action while 45% favor it.  Seven percent are unsure.  A majority of suburban voters — 56% — favor the new development while 54% of those upstate oppose it.  New York City voters divide.  47% favor the action while 45% are against it.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Handling of the New York State Budget

Table: Linking Tougher Standards for Evaluating Teachers to Aid for School Districts

Table: Increasing the Amount of Money Public Employees Personally Contribute to Their Pension

Table: Providing Future Public Employees an Option of a 401K Instead of a Government Pension

Table: Raising the Retirement Age from 62 to 65 Years Old for Public Employees

Table: Spending $1 Billion to Try to Bring Business to Buffalo

Table: Building a New Convention Center Near Aqueduct Racetrack

Dip in Support for Non-Indian Casinos in NYS

Half of New York State adults — 50% — support the allowance of commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State while 41% oppose such an action, and 9% are unsure.

There has been a decrease in support on this issue.  In NY1/YNN-Marist November survey, 60% backed the idea while 35% were against it, and 5% were unsure.

There has been a similar dip in support among registered voters statewide.  A slim majority — 51% — now backs the proposal while 44% oppose it, and 5% are unsure.  In November, 58% were for allowing commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State compared with 37% who opposed it and 5% who were unsure.

Key points:

  • Among registered voters, the sharpest decline has been among Democrats.  49% of these voters support the plan while 59% did so in November.

When it comes to the impact on jobs and revenues, 52% of New York State adults believe allowing commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State is a good way to raise revenues and create jobs while 43% think it is a bad way to do so.  Five percent are unsure.

There has been a change on this question.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 59% said such casinos would have a positive impact on state revenues and job creation.  37% reported it would have a negative impact, and 4% were unsure.

Among registered voters, 51% think these casinos would be advantageous to the state, 45% say they would be a detriment, and 4% are unsure.  Here, too, there has been a decline in support.  In November, 57% thought these casinos would be beneficial, 39% said they would be a bad way to raise state revenues and create jobs, and 4% were unsure.

Key points:

  • Regionally, 56% of adults living in New York City, 52% residing upstate, and 44% of those in the suburbs of New York City believe commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State would be a good way to raise revenues and create jobs.  This compares with 63%, 56%, and 55%, respectively in November.
  • Among registered voters, there has been a decline in the proportion of Democrats — 50% — who believe these casinos would have a positive impact.  63% shared this view two months ago.

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Adults)

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Registered Voters)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Adults)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Registered Voters)

Increase in NYS Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings

After more than two years scraping bottom, the approval ratings for both the New York State Senate and Assembly have inched up.

About one in four voters — 26% — now say that the legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job.  Included here are 2% who think it is doing an excellent job and 24% who report it is doing a good one.  44% rate it as fair while 26% say it is performing poorly.  Four percent are unsure.

There has been a 7 percentage point increase in the proportion of voters who rate the State Senate positively.  In November, only 19% gave it high marks, 45% thought its performance was average, and 33% said it fell short.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Although not as marked an improvement, the approval rating of the New York State Assembly has also edged up.  24% of registered voters in New York now think this legislative body is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 2% who believe the Assembly is doing an excellent job and 22% who report it is doing a good one.  42% give it fair marks while 29% say it is performing poorly.  Five percent are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 20% thought the State Assembly was doing an above average job, 43% said it was doing fairly well, and 33% believed it fell short.  Four percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Trend Graph: New York State Senate job approval rating.

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Trend graph: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating.

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

11/9: Test for Cuomo Could Come Down to the Economy

November 9, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, Lee Miringoff

Just how long is Governor Cuomo’s  honeymoon going to last?  One year after being elected governor, Andrew Cuomo is receiving a strong showing from New Yorkers.  What is particularly noteworthy is that his appeal blurs traditional party and regional divisions.  He is attracting majority support for his job performance from Democrats, independents, and even Republicans.  The story is pretty much the same when it comes to New York City and suburban voters, and the upstate electorate.  This is occurring at a time when there is a strong anti-government, anti-incumbent, and anti-institutional sentiment in our politics.

caricature of Lee MiringoffCuomo is navigating successfully against a strong current.  Three or of four voters think he is a strong leader for New York.  Nearly two-thirds of the electorate think he is fulfilling campaign promises and changing Albany for the better.  Most telling, perhaps, is at a time when the edges of our political spectrum from the Tea Party to Occupy Wall Street are the focus of the press and the pundits, Cuomo has carved out a favorable position as a political moderate and as supporter of the middle class.

The test for Cuomo, of course, will come down the road, and it is likely to occur over the state of the economy.  Nearly four out of every five voters think the state is in an economic recession.  A majority believes that when it comes to the economy, the worst is yet to come.  73% say the state is not affordable, and there has been a decline in the number who think their family finances are likely to improve in the coming year.  People are worried and expect changes.

So, Governor Cuomo is off to a good start in the realm of public opinion.  The honeymoon extends from Long Island to Niagara Falls.  But, he still faces the test of time.

11/4: Cuomo Popular One Year after Election as Governor

November 4, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo remains in the good graces of voters statewide.  A majority of registered voters in the state — 55% — think the governor is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 9% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 46% who say he is doing a good one.  More than three in ten — 32% — report Cuomo is performing fairly well in office while only 7% think he is doing poorly.  Six percent are unsure.

Andrew Cuomo

Click Here for Complete November 4th, 2011 NYS NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Release and Tables

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in August, similar proportions shared these views.  At that time, a majority — 56% — gave Cuomo high marks while 24% thought his performance was average.  One in ten — 10% — believed he was falling short, and 10%, at the time, were unsure.

“Governor Cuomo is successfully navigating against a difficult economic current,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”What makes his numbers particularly impressive is his popularity despite the anti-government, anti-incumbent sentiment in our politics today.”

And, Cuomo continues to be perceived as likeable.  Seven in ten registered voters — 70% — have a favorable impression of Governor Cuomo while 19% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  11% are unsure.  When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in August, 67% thought well of Cuomo, 23% did not, and 9% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Ingredients of Cuomo’s Strong Ratings

Three in four registered voters statewide — 75% — think Governor Andrew Cuomo is a good leader for the state.  19% disagree, and 6% are unsure.  Little has changed on this question since NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey.  At that time, 72% valued Cuomo’s leadership skills, 19% did not, and 9% were unsure.

Has Cuomo kept his campaign promises?  Nearly two-thirds of registered voters in New York State — 65% — believe Cuomo has fulfilled the promises he made on the campaign trail while 22% say he has not.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, Cuomo is consistent.  In August, 66% said he has been true to his word, 19% reported he has not made good on his promises, and 15% were unsure.

When it comes to the impact voters think Mr. Cuomo is having on Albany, more than six in ten — 63% — say he is changing Albany for the better.  28% disagree, and 8% are unsure.  A few months have made little difference on this question.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s previous survey, 60% thought the governor was having a positive impact on Albany while 25% thought he was not.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Ideologically speaking, a majority of registered voters in New York — 53% — say Governor Cuomo is a moderate.  27% believe he is a liberal while 13% report Cuomo is a conservative.  Eight percent are unsure.  There has been little change in the proportion of voters who think Cuomo is a moderate.  In NY1/YNN-Marist’s May survey, a majority — 52% — shared this view.  In May, 19% described Cuomo as a liberal, 17% thought he was a conservative, and 12% were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Leader Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo as Fulfilling Campaign Promises Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Cuomo’s a Man of the Middle Class, Says Majority

A majority of registered voters statewide — 55% — believes Governor Cuomo mostly represents the middle class.  26% think he supports the wealthy while 6% report he represents the poor.  Three percent volunteered that they believe Cuomo represents everyone, and one in ten — 10% — is unsure.

Key points:

  • Regardless of political party, at least a majority of voters view Cuomo as mostly representing the views of the middle class.  60% of Democrats, 54% of non-enrolled voters, and 51% of Republicans have this opinion.
  • While 63% of New York City voters and 61% of those in the city’s suburbs believe Cuomo reflects the views of the middle class, there is less consensus upstate.  47% in this region think Cuomo represents the middle class while 34% believe he reflects the interests of the wealthy.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Represents Which Interests

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Stagnate at Murky Levels

While a majority of voters approve of the job Governor Cuomo is doing in office, the job performances of the New York State Senate and Assembly continue to scrape bottom.

Just 19% of registered voters in New York think the State Senate is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 2% who think it is performing excellently and 17% who report it is doing a good job.  45% believe the legislative body is performing fairly well, and 33% think it is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

The State Senate received a similar rating in May when 17% thought it was doing an above average job.  43% gave it fair marks, and 36% believed it fell short.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

The State Assembly doesn’t fare any better.  One in five — 20% — says the Assembly is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Included here are 2% who rate the legislative body as excellent and 18% who give it good grades.  43% rate the Assembly as fair while 33% categorize its performance as subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

The Assembly’s approval rating is little changed from May when 17% gave it a thumbs-up.  42% said it was performing fairly well, and 36% gave it a thumbs-down.  At that time, 5% were unsure.

It’s not surprising, then, that many voters think that state government needs to be overhauled.  In fact, 64% say major changes are needed, and 25% believe minor adjustments are required.  10% report the system is broken and beyond repair while just 1% feels the way things are done in state government in Albany do not need to be changed.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in May, 69% said state government needed to undergo major alterations while 22% thought minor tweaking was in order.  Eight percent reported state government was too far gone to be fixed, and only 1% believed no changes were needed.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Trend graph: New York State Senate job approval rating.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Trend graph: New York State Assembly job approval rating.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Table: Status of State Government in Albany

Table: Status of State Government in Albany (Over Time)

Trend graph: Status of New York State government.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Nearly Half of NYS Voters Think State is Moving in Wrong Direction

The boost in optimism New York State voters experienced just a few months ago about the direction of the state is now tempered.  Nearly half of registered voters statewide — 49% — think New York is moving in the wrong direction while 43% say it is moving in the right one.  Seven percent are unsure.

When NY1/YNN-Marist last reported this question in August, voters divided.  46% believed the state was traveling along the right path while 45% reported the state’s compass was broken.  Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.  That August survey marked the first time since March of 2007 that the proportion of voters who thought New York was moving in the right direction outnumbered that of those who thought it was on the wrong path.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS (Over Time)

Trend graph: Direction of New York State.

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

Jackpot for NYS? Six in Ten Adults Support Non-Indian Casinos

Should New York State allow non-Indian casinos to open in New York State?  60% of New York State residents support it.  35% oppose these types of commercial operations, and 5% are unsure.

Similar proportions of registered voters in New York share these views.  58% of voters support these casinos while 37% oppose them.  Five percent are unsure.

Key points:

  • 59% of Democratic voters, the same proportion of non-enrolled voters — 59% — and 56% of Republican voters in New York State are for opening commercial non-Indian casinos.
  • There is little difference regionally.  Among adults living upstate, 61% back these casinos.  60% of New York City residents and 57% of adults living in the city’s suburbs share this view.

Nearly six in ten adults statewide — 59% — believe allowing commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State is a good way to raise state revenues and create jobs while 37% think it is a bad way to accomplish these goals.  Four percent are unsure.

Among registered voters statewide, similar proportions share these views.  57% report these casinos are good for the state financially while 39% say they are a bad method for generating revenues and jobs statewide.  Four percent are unsure.

Key points:

  • While more than six in ten Democratic voters in New York — 63% — and a majority of Republican voters — 57% — think commercial non-Indian casinos are a good source for raising money, non-enrolled voters divide.  Among these voters, a slim majority — 51% — favor the idea while 47% do not.
  • More than six in ten adults living in New York City — 63% — and majorities of residents upstate — 56% — and in the city’s suburbs — 55% — believe the operation of commercial non-Indian casinos in New York State is a good way to raise revenues and create jobs.

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Adults)

Table: Support for non-Indian Casinos in New York State (Registered Voters)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Adults)

Table: Non-Indian Casinos are a Good or Bad Way to Raise NYS Revenues and Jobs (Registered Voters)

More Residents Form Opinion about Hydrofracking…Still More than One in Five Unsure

42% of adults in New York State oppose the process of splitting rocks underground to remove natural gas while 36% back hydrofracking.  A notable 22% are unsure.

In NY1/YNN-Marist’s August survey, 37% were against the process while 32% were for it.  At that time, 31% were unsure.

There has also been an increase among registered voters statewide who have formed an opinion about the issue.  42% of voters oppose hydrofracking while 39% support it.  19% are unsure.  In August, 37% of voters were against hydrofracking while 33% were for it.  At that time, three in ten — 30% — were unsure.

Key points:

  • More adults living in New York City — 44% — now oppose hydrofracking.  34% held this view in August.  In contrast, there has been an increase in the proportion of residents living in the suburbs of New York City who support the process.  46% favor it while 38% did so in August.  Little has changed upstate.  37% now support hydrofracking while 33% did so in the summer.
  • Looking at party, nearly half of Democratic voters — 49% — and more than four in ten non-enrolled voters — 42% — oppose hydrofracking.  These are increases from NY1/YNN-Marist Poll’s previous survey.  At that time, 40% of Democrats and 36% of non-enrolled voters had this opinion.  Among Republican voters statewide, a majority — 52% — backs hydrofracking while 43% said the same in August.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (NYS Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

NY1/YNN-Marist Poll Methodology

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