10/6: Mayor de Blasio Approval Rating up to 40%… Well-positioned for Re-election Amid Racially Polarized City

October 6, 2016 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With a mayoralty election year approaching, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has a job approval rating of 40%, up from his all-time low of 35% in April.  A year ago, the mayor’s approval rating stood at 38%.  However, a deep racial divide underscores both de Blasio’s approval rating and questions pertaining to the general condition of New York City.

“Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating has inched up, and he has improved his standing with New Yorkers on both his handling of issues and their perceptions of his qualities as mayor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “New Yorkers give the mayor his top grade for his handling of the recent bombing incident in Chelsea.”

Four in ten registered voters in New York City, 40%, approve of how Mayor Bill de Blasio is doing his job.  This includes 9% who give the mayor an excellent rating and 31% who give him a good one.  56% of voters citywide report de Blasio is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor job, 22%, in office.  Three percent are unsure.

Prominent differences surface when looking at race.  African American voters, 53%, and Latino voters, 46%, are more likely than white voters, 30%, to give de Blasio high marks.  While de Blasio’s approval rating has changed little among white voters, his score has inched up from 49% in April among African American voters.  Mayor de Blasio has made significant inroads with Latino members of the electorate.  In the spring, 36% of Latinos reported Mayor de Blasio was performing well in his post.

By borough, de Blasio’s job performance is best received in the Bronx, 49%, up from 34% previously.  In Brooklyn, 45% of voters think well of how Mayor de Blasio is doing his job compared with 38% who shared this view this past spring.  43% of Manhattan voters think highly of de Blasio’s job performance, up 11 points since April.  Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating in Queens and Staten Island is little changed.  31% currently score the mayor’s job performance highly compared with 32% who did so previously.

On the specifics of the mayor’s job performance, he receives his highest score among city residents on how he handled the bombing incident in Chelsea with a 60% positive rating.  The mayor also receives good marks on how he is handling crime, 49%, and how he is dealing with the city’s public schools, 49%.  60% of households with a child in the public schools approve of how de Blasio is approaching education.  On the issue of police-community relations, de Blasio’s score is upside down.  44% of adults citywide approve while 48% disapprove.  The mayor also has a net negative rating on how he is handling the problem of income inequality.  39% of city residents approve while 44% disapprove.

On questions for which trend data exists, Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating on the issues has increased.  This includes the question about police-community relations which, as noted above, the mayor currently still receives a net negative score.


African American adults and Latino residents are more likely than white residents to approve of how Mayor de Blasio is approaching these issues with one exception.  On the question of how Mayor de Blasio tackled the Chelsea bombing incident, similar proportions of whites, 59%, and Latinos, 57%, think well of how the mayor handled the situation.  71% of African Americans agree.  Of note, de Blasio’s scores on the questions for which trend data exist have increased even among white adults citywide.

Mayor de Blasio is viewed by registered voters to be a mayor who cares about the average person, 61%, who is a good leader for New York City, 54%, and who deserves to be re-elected, 50%.  On each of these questions, more voters citywide maintain these opinions than previously.  Again, African American voters and Latino members of the electorate are more likely to perceive de Blasio positively than white voters.  While there has been little or no change among white voters on these questions, there has been an increase in African American and Latino voters who have a positive impression of de Blasio in each of these areas.

Since Mayor de Blasio has taken office, few New York City residents believe that he has improved the homeless situation in New York City.  Only 10% of residents think the number of homeless people, panhandlers, and the mentally ill on the city’s streets and subways have decreased.  38% believe the number has increased, and 43% say it has remained about the same.  Nine percent are unsure.  When this question was reported last November, 8% thought the number of homeless people in New York City had gone down, 42% thought the homeless population had grown, and 42% said it had remained the same.  Eight percent at that time were unsure.  Currently, white residents, 53%, are more likely than African American, 25%, and Latino, 37%, adults to say the homeless situation has become worse.  Still, a majority of African Americans, 54%, and a plurality of Latinos, 43%, say it has remained about the same.  Just 14% of African American residents and 12% of Latinos report the number has decreased.

Mayor de Blasio does better on the issue of affordable housing.  More than one in four residents, 27%, say the amount of affordable housing in the city has increased.  21% think it has decreased, and 41% report it is unchanged.  11% are unsure.  Here, too, opinions splinter along racial lines.  Latino adults, 38%, and African American residents, 29%, are more likely than whites, 19%, to believe there is greater access to affordable housing.

Overall, 43% of voters in New York City, up from 37% previously, think Mayor de Blasio is changing New York City for the better.  25% say he is having a negative effect on the city, and 28% report the mayor is not having any effect on the five boroughs.  There has been little change among white voters, 26%, who see improvement compared with 29% last fall. However, a substantial proportion of Latino voters, 53%, up from 37%, say de Blasio is improving the city.  The proportion of African American voters is also up, 59% from 52%.

Mayor de Blasio and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo often disagree about the issues facing the city.  A majority of city residents, 51%, say those disagreements matter only a little, 28%, or not at all, 23%.  46% say they are bothered a great deal, 28%, or a good amount, 18%, by such squabbles.

Who do New York City residents blame for the disagreements between de Blasio and Cuomo?  42% put more of the onus on Cuomo while 30% point a finger at de Blasio.  Nearly three in ten, 29%, are unsure.  Again, racial differences exist.  A majority of African American residents, 52%, and a plurality of Latino adults, 44%, mostly blame Cuomo.  A plurality of white adults, 41%, say the fault lies mostly at de Blasio’s feet.

Pluralities of New York City residents think both Mayor de Blasio and Governor Cuomo are taking steps to clean up corruption in the city and state, respectively.  47% of city residents report de Blasio is attempting to rid the city of corruption while 32% assert that he and his administration are adding to this problem in the Big Apple.  21% are unsure.  When it comes to Cuomo, nearly identical proportions have these views.  47% think Cuomo is taking steps to clean up corruption in state government while 33% believe he and his administration are adding to the problem at the state level.  21% are unsure.

On both questions, African Americans and Latinos are more likely than whites to think de Blasio and Cuomo are trying to eliminate corruption.  A plurality of white voters, 46%, think de Blasio is adding to corruption in New York City.  There is little consensus among white voters about Cuomo:  40% think he is trying to rid Albany of corruption, and 38% report he is adding to the problem.  21% of whites are unsure.

What are de Blasio’s re-election chances?  If he faces a primary challenge, 42% of New York City Democrats support de Blasio. Former New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer has 9% as does Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.  Congressman Hakeem Jeffries receives the support of 7% of New York City Democrats.  More than one in five, 22%, are undecided.

Looking at race, a majority of African Americans who are Democrats, 56%, and half of Latinos who are Democrats, 50%, support Mayor de Blasio.  Among white Democrats, 26% are for de Blasio, 20% support Quinn, and 19% back Stringer.

“What is noteworthy, at this point, is that de Blasio has a substantial lead over a crowded field of potential Democratic opponents, and he has an impressive 57% re-elect score among Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Citywide, 50% of registered voters now say the mayor deserves to be re-elected, up eight points from the previous poll.”

In a general election contest against Republican real estate executive Paul Massey, Mayor de Blasio, 64%, leads Massey, 22%, by nearly three to one among registered voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Three percent support someone else, and 11% are undecided.

De Blasio has the advantage over Massey in all five boroughs.  Mayor de Blasio does best in the Bronx, 73%.  His weakest region is in Queens and Staten Island where he has the backing of 56%.  African American, 87%, and Latino voters, 72%, overwhelmingly favor de Blasio.  Among whites, de Blasio, 45%, is ahead of Massey, 38%, by seven points.

Do city voters want a Trump family member to enter New York City’s political arena?  Eight in ten voters, 80%, say they do not want Donald Trump, Jr. to run for mayor.  A similar 81% say they do not want Donald Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump to seek the mayoralty.

Turning to the New York City Police Department, 68% of New York City residents have either a great deal of confidence, 28%, or a fair amount of confidence, 40%, in police officers in their community to protect them from violent crime.  30% either have just some confidence, 14%, or very little confidence, 16%, to keep them safe.  Two percent are unsure.  In November 2015, 66% of residents had, at least, a fair amount of faith in the NYPD to protect them.  Currently, 80% of white adults, compared with 53% of African American residents and 65% of Latino adults, feel confident that the police in their community will protect them, at least, a fair amount.

70% of adults have either a great deal, 32%, or a fair amount, 38%, of confidence in their local police to protect them from an act of terrorism.  28% have just some, 14%, or very little, 14%, faith in the NYPD to do so.  Two percent are unsure.

Optimism about the direction of New York City has increased.  48% of registered voters, compared with 43% in April, say the city is moving in the right direction.  43%, down from 51% previously, say it is moving in the wrong one.  The proportion of voters who are more upbeat about the city’s trajectory has been growing.  Last year, 38% of the city’s electorate said the city was on the right track while 55% reported it was on the wrong one.

Complete October 6, 2016 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample 

4/15: NY: Clinton with Strong Lead

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 57%, runs ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 40%, by 17 points among New York likely Democratic primary voters in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination.  In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York released earlier this week, Clinton was ahead of Sanders by 14 points.

“As the primary approaches, the back and forth between Clinton and Sanders hasn’t dramatically changed the New York contest for the Democrats in the last few days,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Clinton has maintained her advantage over Sanders by running up a large margin among Democratic primary voters 45 years of age or older.  Sanders retains his lead among first-time voters, those under the age of 45, and likely Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as very liberal.  Looking at region, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 26 points in New York City and 24 points in the city’s suburbs.  Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate, 49% to 50%, respectively.

72% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference, compared with 69% of those earlier this week, report they strongly support their choice of candidate.  Similar proportions of Clinton’s supporters, 71%, and Sanders’ backers, 72%, express a firm commitment to their choice of candidate.

Turning to the job performances of other prominent office holders in New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo’s rating remains upside down.  41% of registered voters think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This includes 7% who say he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one.  55% of voters report Cuomo is doing either a fair, 34%, or poor, 21%, job.  Cuomo’s approval rating has inched up slightly from the 37% score he received in the Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last year.

Assessing Cuomo’s approval rating by party, a majority of Democrats, 54%, approve of how the governor is doing in office, up from 43% last spring.  The proportions of Republicans, 25%, and independents, 38%, who give Cuomo high marks are identical to what they were at that time.

Regionally, Cuomo is perceived best in New York City, 47%, and in the city’s suburbs, 45%.  Last time, Cuomo’s approval rating was 44% in the city and 41% in the suburbs.  34% of upstate voters, compared with 31% last May, share this opinion.

43% of voters statewide think the Empire State is moving in the right direction while 48% say it is moving in the wrong one.  This is little changed from last spring when 43% said the state was on track, and 51% thought it was off course.

Regionally, differences exist.  Half of New York City voters, 50%, have a positive opinion of the direction of the state.  43% of those in the suburbs and 38% of voters upstate agree.

The approval rating of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is at its lowest point since taking office.  35% of voters citywide approve of his job performance.  Included here are 8% of registered voters citywide who think the mayor is doing an excellent job and 27% who say he is doing a good one.  62% think he has done a fair or poor job.  In the November Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 38% approved of de Blasio’s job performance, and 58% did not.  Currently, even a majority of Democrats rate him as fair or poor, 54%.

Mayor de Blasio’s approval rating is down among white voters.  27% of white voters approve of de Blasio’s job performance, down from 32% in the fall.  There is little change among Latinos and African Americans.  36% of Latinos, comparable to the 37% he received last time, approve of how de Blasio is doing his job.  Among African Americans, 49% give de Blasio high scores while 50% did so previously.

When it comes to the direction of New York City, voters’ opinions are upside down.  A majority of New York City voters, 51%, continue to think things in the Big Apple are moving in the wrong direction.  43% believe New York City is moving in the right one.  This is somewhat improved from last fall when 55% thought the city was on the wrong path, and 38% reported it was on the right course.

In contrast, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating among New York registered voters, 52%, is at its highest in three years.  Mr. Obama received an identical score of 52% this time three years ago.  When this question was last reported in May of 2015, 46% of registered voters gave Mr. Obama high scores, and 54% did not.

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of New York

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York State Registered Voters)

 Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York (New York City Registered Voters)

Complete April 15, 2016 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Tables of New York (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology for New York

 Nature of the Sample for New York 

5/12: Cuomo Approval Rating at Lowest Point… Albany Perceived as Dripping with Corruption

While New York Governor Andrew Cuomo remains well-liked statewide, his job performance rating, 37%, has declined to its lowest point since he became governor in 2011.  Cuomo’s approval rating is down seven points since The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported it in October and is in stark contrast to his highest score, 59%, in October of 2012.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

Cuomo has lost ground with his base.  Only 43% of Democratic voters, down from 56% last fall, give the governor high marks.  Cuomo’s approval rating has suffered statewide.  Regardless of the region where voters live, fewer approve of how he is doing his job.  The sharpest decline has occurred among voters in New York City where 44% say he is doing, at least, a good job as governor.  This is a decrease from 53% in October.  Governor Cuomo’s approval rating in the city is identical to that of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio who faces growing pessimism and racial polarization within the Big Apple.  And, while Cuomo’s favorable rating is respectable at 52%, it is also at its lowest point since the governor has been in office.

The decline in Governor Cuomo’s approval rating is due, at least in part, to the widespread opinion that Albany is corrupt.  In fact, three in four voters statewide, 75%, think the level of corruption in state government has increased over the past few years, 43%, or has remained the same which, in their view, is a bad thing, 32%.  Among New York State voters who say corruption has gotten worse in Albany, Cuomo’s approval rating stands at 26%.

The governor is also no longer thought to be changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  50% do not think Cuomo is having a positive impact on state government, and only 40% do.  Among those who do not think the governor is improving the way Albany functions, his job performance rating is 12% compared with 65% among those who think he has had a positive role.

Turning to the New York State Assembly and Senate, voters’ attitudes toward these legislative bodies are dismal.  Only 20% of voters approve of the job the Assembly is doing, and 23% approve of the job of the state senate.  Ratings for both have dipped since September from 25% and 26%, respectively.

Overall, voters are pessimistic about the direction of the state.  A majority, 51%, believes New York State is moving in the wrong direction, and 43% say things are going in the right one.  Voters’ attitudes have not been this bleak about the state’s trajectory since May of 2011 when 54% of voters believed the Empire State was off course.

However, opinions about the condition of New York’s economy have improved.  While 52% of voters still consider the state to be in a recession, this is the smallest proportion who have this view since January of 2006 when voters divided.  47%, at that time, believed New York to be in a recession while 46% disagreed with that characterization.

While voters’ views toward statewide officials are gloomy, elected officials on the national stage fare better.  President Barack Obama’s approval rating among New York State voters has rebounded from its lowest point, 39%, in September to 46% now.  Senator Charles Schumer’s approval rating, 54%, is rock solid.  Schumer received the identical score in September.  45% of New York voters think well of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s performance compared with 48% last fall.

“Elected officials with an Albany, New York working address are struggling,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For Governor Andrew Cuomo, how low is low?  His predecessors’ low points included 17% for David Paterson, 30% for Eliot Spitzer, 34% for George Pataki, and 32% for Mario Cuomo.” 

Complete May 12, 2015 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

Poll points:

  • 37% of New York registered voters rate Cuomo’s job performance as either excellent, 4%, or good, 33% (Trend).  Cuomo’s approval rating has dropped seven points since October when 44% gave the governor high marks.
  • Among Democrats, 43% approve of Cuomo’s job performance, down from 56% in October.  Cuomo’s approval rating stands at 25% among Republicans and 38% among independents.
  • Regardless of region, Governor Cuomo has experienced a decline in his approval rating.  In New York City, Cuomo’s score has dropped nine points to 44% from 53% last fall.  41% of voters in the suburbs of New York City approve of the governor’s performance, down from 48%.  Upstate, 31% say Cuomo is performing well.  36% had this view previously.
  • Among voters who perceive an increase in corruption in state government, only 26% rate the governor’s job performance highly.
  • 75% of voters consider the state government in Albany to be more corrupt, 43%, or to be about the same as it has been which, they say, is bad, 32%.  Only 8% report Albany is less corrupt, and 10% think it is status quo which is a good thing.  Two percent believe corruption in Albany is at the same level it has been and did not specify whether that is good or bad.
  • Half of New York voters, 50%, say Governor Cuomo is not changing the way things work in state government in Albany for the better while 40% say he is (Trend).  One in ten, 10%, is unsure.  This is the first time since Cuomo became governor that voters’ opinions on this question are upside down.  When last reported in September, the electorate divided with 47% reporting Cuomo was having a positive impact on Albany and 47% saying he was not improving state government.
  • Among voters who believe he is not improving how state government functions, only 12% rate the governor’s job performance highly.
  • A majority of registered voters, 52%, have a favorable impression of Cuomo, little changed from 54% in October (Trend).  While a majority still perceives the governor positively, this is Cuomo’s lowest favorable rating since taking office.
  • 49% of voters say Cuomo’s political ideology is about right.  29% think he is too liberal, and 13% consider him too conservative.  One in ten, 10%, is unsure.
  • One in five voters statewide, 20%, compared with 25% in September, thinks the New York State Assembly is doing either an excellent, 3%, or good, 17%, job in office.  41% rate the legislative body as fair while 32% believe it is performing poorly (Trend).
  • 23% of voters, compared with 26% last fall, say the New York State Senate is doing either an excellent, 3%, or good, 20%, job in office (Trend).
  • 51% of voters say things in New York are moving in the wrong direction while 43% say they are heading in the right one (Trend).  The proportion of voters who think the state is off track is the largest since May of 2011 when 54% thought things in New York were going in the wrong direction.  When this question was last reported in October, the electorate divided.  46%, at that time, said the state was on the wrong path, and 45% believed it was on the right course.
  • Regionally, 43% of New York City voters, up from 35% in the fall, say the state is traveling in the wrong direction.  48% of suburban voters, up from 37% in October, also have this view.  There has been virtually no change among voters Upstate where nearly six in ten, 58%, think the state is off track.
  • 52% of voters, down from 57% in September, say New York State is in a recession (Trend).  This is the smallest proportion of voters since January of 2006 to report New York is in a recession.  At that time, 47% believed the state was under the recession’s cloud while 46% said it was not.
  • 46% of voters in New York think President Barack Obama is doing either an excellent, 14%, or good, 32%, job in office (Trend).  President Obama’s approval rating has improved from its lowest point in New York, 39%, in September.
  • A majority of voters, 54%, approves of the job Senator Chuck Schumer is doing in office, unchanged from September (Trend).
  • 45% of voters rate Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance highly (Trend).  38% give Gillibrand lower ratings, and a notable 18% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

10/31: Cuomo Outpaces Astorino in Governor’s Race

October 31, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo, 56%, leads his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, 30%, by almost two-to-one in the race for governor in New York among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

Cuomo has the support of three in four likely voters from his own party, but he also has the backing of more than three in ten Republicans likely to cast a ballot.  Regionally, Cuomo has a wide lead among likely voters in New York City and receives majority support among likely voters in the city’s suburbs.  Although the contest is closer Upstate, Cuomo has a 9 point advantage over Astorino in the region.

Despite a lukewarm 44% job approval rating among registered voters, Cuomo has maintained his large advantage over Astorino.  Cuomo’s lead is bolstered by the positive view many likely voters have of him.  Astorino, who is still not well-known to more than a quarter of the state electorate, has a higher negative rating than positive score among voters.

“The poll suggests Astorino hasn’t gotten any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Astorino has been unable to dent Cuomo’s image while Cuomo has successfully defined his opponent.” 

Complete October 31, 2014 NBC 4 New York/The Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Poll Points Governor:

  • Cuomo, 56%, leads Astorino, 30%, in the governor’s race among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has 6%.  Only 7% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/The Wall Street Journal/Marist’s late September survey, Cuomo, 54%, outdistanced Astorino, 29%, by a similar margin.
  • While Cuomo receives the support of 75% of Democratic likely voters, he also garners 31% of Republicans likely to vote.  A plurality of independents likely to cast a ballot, 47%, supports Cuomo compared with 32% for Astorino.  Hawkins has the backing of 10% of independents.
  • Cuomo, 72%, outpaces Astorino, 13%, among likely voters in New York City.  He also bests Astorino, 57% to 37%, among those in the city’s suburbs.  Upstate, Cuomo leads Astorino, 46% to 37%.
  • 57% of likely voters with a candidate preference including early voters, up slightly from 53% last month, strongly support their choice of candidate for governor Eight percent might vote differently.  While those who strongly back Astorino, 55%, is little changed from 56% previously, the proportion of Cuomo’s backers who express a strong level of support is up to 59% from 53% in September.
  • 62% of likely voters with a candidate preference for governor including early voters say they are voting for their candidate while 35% report they are casting a ballot against the others in the race.  While 77% of Cuomo’s backers say their vote is in favor of the incumbent, 55% of Astorino’s supporters report their vote is in opposition to Cuomo.
  • Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Cuomo leads Astorino, 54% to 28%.
  • A majority of likely voters, 56%, has a positive impression of Cuomo.  Among registered voters, a similar 54% have this view (Trend) Cuomo’s job approval rating among registered voters is at 44%, comparable to the 42% he received last month (Trend).
  • Astorino’s favorable rating, 32% to 41%, remains upside down among likely voters.  Astorino’s negatives are up slightly from 37%, and he is still little known to a notable proportion, 27%, of the likely electorate.  Among registered voters, Astorino’s favorable score is 29%.  His negative rating is 40% (Trend).
  • Education is cited by 21% of likely voters as the top priority for the governor of New York.  Jobs, 19%, and taxes, 18%, follow closely behind.  Eight percent mention security from terrorism, and an additional 8% say improving the business climate is key.  26% select another issue.
  • Although they divide about the direction of the state, registered voters are slightly more positive about its trajectory.  46% believe the state is on the wrong track while 45% say it is on the right course.  In September, half of voters thought New York was heading in the wrong direction, and 43% thought it was moving in the right direction (Trend).

Ebola in New York: More than Six in Ten Approve of Cuomo’s Handling… Residents Weigh In on Regulations.

A Look to 2016: Do Voters Want a Candidate Cuomo?

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

9/24: Cuomo Outpaces Astorino in NY Governor’s Race

September 24, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

In the race for New York State governor, Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo leads his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, by 25 percentage points among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Cuomo is bolstered by his Democratic base.  However, even 27% of Republicans favor the incumbent.  The governor’s support is also buoyed by likely voters in New York City where seven in ten say they will support Mr. Cuomo.  Governor Cuomo bests Astorino by more than two to one in the suburbs which surround New York City.  The race is more competitive Upstate.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

Governor Cuomo continues to be viewed favorably by a majority of New York voters despite a job approval rating which matches the governor’s lowest since taking office.  Currently, 55% of registered voters have a positive impression of the governor, but only 42% approve of how Cuomo is doing his job.

“The race for governor is all about Cuomo.  Cuomo’s supporters are voting for him, and Astorino’s backers are voting against the governor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The bottom line is Cuomo has a strong lead, and Astorino is still struggling to get traction.”

Complete September 24, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

Poll Points:

  • In the contest for New York governor, a majority of New York likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 54%, supports Democrat Andrew Cuomo.  29% are for Republican Rob Astorino while Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has 9%.
  • Three in four Democrats, 75%, support Cuomo.  And, while 63% of Republicans back Astorino, a notable 27% are for Cuomo.  Among independents likely to vote, a plurality, 43%, backs Cuomo.  31% are for Astorino, and 13% support Hawkins.
  • Cuomo has overwhelming support among likely voters in New York City, 70%.  He also has a majority of support in the city’s suburbs, 56%.  However, Cuomo, 42%, and Astorino, 39%, are competitive Upstate.
  • A majority of likely voters with a candidate preference, 53%, reports they strongly support their choice of candidate for governor.  32% somewhat support their pick, and 14% might vote differently.  56% of Astorino backers and 53% of Cuomo supporters are strongly committed to their choice.
  • While 59% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they plan to vote for their choice of candidate because they are for him, 35% support their selection because they are against the other candidates.  Astorino is viewed by a majority of his backers, 57%, as the anti-Cuomo candidate.  In contrast, 74% of Cuomo’s support is an affirmative vote for him.
  • Governor Cuomo, 47%, has a double-digit lead over Astorino, 35%, among likely voters who know about the Moreland Commission controversy.  Voters who have heard of the Moreland Commission controversy comprise 41% of the state’s electorate compared with 45% who said they knew about it last month.
  • Among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Cuomo leads Astorino, 54% to 26%.  Eight percent back Hawkins.  In August, Cuomo outdistanced Astorino, 54% to 23%.  Seven percent supported Hawkins.
  • Governor Cuomo achieves this sizeable lead despite a 42% job approval rating among registered voters in the state.  This matches Cuomo’s lowest score since he took office (Trend).
  • 55% of likely voters have a favorable view of Governor Cuomo, and 39% have an unfavorable one.  Among registered voters, Cuomo’s favorable rating is identical, 55%.  This is little changed from 53% in August (Trend).
  • 33% of likely voters have a positive view of Astorino, and 37% have a negative one.  A notable 31% do not offer an opinion of him.
  • Astorino is better known by state voters.  31% now have a positive impression of the candidate compared with 22% last month.  But, negative impressions of him have also grown.  37% have a negative view of Astorino now while 25% shared this opinion in August.
  • 43% of New York likely voters consider Cuomo to be a moderate.  39% describe him as liberal, and 11% view Cuomo as a conservative.  Similar proportions of registered voters describe Cuomo in these terms.  Voters’ impressions of Cuomo’s ideology are little changed from July (Trend).
  • 45% of likely voters view Astorino as a conservative.  23% call him a moderate, and only 7% describe him as a liberal.  25% are unsure.  The proportion of registered voters who view Astorino as a conservative has grown.  40% now share this view, up from 27% in July.  At that time, a plurality, 46%, was unsure.

Most Voters Want Debates… Include all Candidates, Say Nearly Eight in Ten

On the Specifics of Cuomo’s Image

Major Change Needed in State Government

  • 52% of registered voters in New York think state government in Albany needs major changes.  38% say minor changes are required, and 7% report state government is broken and cannot be fixed.  Only 3% believe no changes are needed.  Almost identical proportions of voters held these views in August (Trend).
  • The New York State Senate and Assembly continue to receive poor marks.  Only 26% of registered voters approve of how the State Senate is doing its job (Trend).  A similar 25% approve of how the New York State Assembly is performing (Trend).
  • 50% of voters say, when it comes to the direction of New York, the state is moving in the wrong direction.  43%, though, report it is moving in the right one.  In August, voters divided with 48% saying New York was on the right track and 45% reporting it was on the wrong one (Trend). 

Jobs Top Priority for Nearly One in Four Voters

  • 23% of voters consider jobs to be the top priority for New York.  Education follows with 17%.  16% think economic development is the most important issue facing the state while 15% cite taxes.  Close to three in ten, 29%, choose another issue.  There has been little change on this question since it was last reported in July.

Majority Believes New York is in Recession… Half Think State Has Turned the Corner

  • A majority of registered voters, 57%, reports New York is currently in a recession while 40% say it is not.  In July, similar proportions of registered voters had these views.  60% thought the state was under the recession’s cloud while 36% believed the fog had lifted (Trend).
  • 50% of voters think the worst of the state’s economic problems are over.  44%, though, say the worst is still to come.  New York voters are slightly more pessimistic about the state of the economy.  In July, a majority, 56%, thought better economic days were ahead (Trend). 

Obama Approval Rating in NYS Lowest Since Taking Office

State Voters’ Impressions of NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio

  • 35% of registered voters in New York State have a positive view of New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.  36% have a negative impression, and 28% don’t know him well enough to say.  Not surprisingly, opinions of the New York City mayor vary greatly by region.  He is well-known and well-liked in New York City.  He is largely well-known but not as well-liked in the suburbs surrounding the city.  Nearly half of Upstate voters, 46%, do not have an opinion of him. 

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

8/5: NYS Voters Wary About Moreland Commission Controversy, But it Doesn’t Change Much for Governor’s Contest in November

August 5, 2014 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive

Many New York State voters believe Governor Cuomo’s staff acted inappropriately when they engaged with members of the Moreland Commission which was established by the governor to root out corruption in state government.  A majority of registered voters also think the governor’s office did not proceed ethically although few think any laws were breached.  And, there are political costs for the governor’s image among voters familiar with the controversy.

©istockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr

But, the big takeaway for this November’s elections is that most of the electorate considers the controversy to be either a minor factor or not a factor at all in deciding their vote for governor.  Governor Andrew Cuomo still outpaces his GOP opponent Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino by a wide margin although his lead has narrowed slightly from a month ago.  Cuomo continues to receive support from seven in ten Democrats (slipping from eight in ten) and is backed by a majority of independents.  He still has support among nearly a quarter of Republicans although that is down from three in ten last month.  His approval rating as governor is little changed. There has been a decline in the proportion of voters who have a favorable impression of the governor.

In a region beset by gubernatorial scandals, New Yorkers generally stand by their governor.  Governor Christie’s traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge is seen as worse than Governor Cuomo’s Moreland Commission controversy.

“Among voters keyed into the issue the political storm is taking a toll on their views of Governor Cuomo.  But, he has managed to keep the fallout at arm’s length where his re-election is concerned,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The problem for Rob Astorino is that the controversy involving Governor Cuomo’s office has not, so far, shaken up the race.  Neither have voters’ impressions of Astorino improved.”

Complete August 5, 2014 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Poll Points

  • 62% of registered voters believe Governor Cuomo’s staff should not have had input into the work of the Moreland Commission.  This includes 71% of Republicans, 63% of independents, and even, 59% of Democrats who share this view.
  • 52% of the electorate thinks the governor’s staff did something unethical by getting involved with the work of the commission, but only 11% believe they did something illegal. These opinions are largely consistent across party lines.
  • Only 23% of voters see the Moreland Commission controversy as a major factor in deciding their vote for governor in November.  71% describe the controversy as either a minor factor, 41%, or no factor at all, 30%.
  • 54% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Governor Cuomo’s re-election compared with 23% who back Republican Rob Astorino.  Last month, Cuomo outdistanced Astorino, 59% to 24%.
  • The decline in Cuomo’s margin over Astorino is the result of a decrease in the governor’s support among Democrats from 81% to 72%, and a drop in the proportion of Republicans who back the governor from 30% to 24%.  Regionally, the governor’s dip is greatest in New York City where his support fell from 80% to 66% in the month.  Statistically, there is little change, overall, in support for Astorino.
  • Cuomo still bests Astorino, 44% to 32%, among voters who believe New York State needs major changes or is broken and beyond repair.  But, last month he led Astorino by 19 points among these voters, 50% to 31%.
  • 53% of registered voters currently have a favorable impression of Governor Cuomo, the lowest rating he’s received since taking office (Trend).  His score continues to decline from 58% last month and 63% since March.
  • Astorino is still not known by a majority of voters.  53%, do not offer an opinion of him.  22% rate him positively, and 25% view him negatively.
  • Democratic primary challenger Zephyr Teachout is not known by most voters.

Moreland Meddling, The More You Know…
 

  • Since the Moreland Controversy made news, only 49% of voters are now confident the governor is changing the way things work in Albany for the better, a decline from 55% last month.  Among voters who are familiar with the Moreland Commission controversy (45% of the electorate), 42% think the governor is changing Albany for the better, and 53% disagree.  In contrast, 56% of voters who are unfamiliar with the controversy think Governor Cuomo is making progress in how state government works, and 31% do not hold this view.
  • 46% of the electorate believes Governor Cuomo is fulfilling campaign promises, and 39% do not.  47% of voters who are aware of the controversy do not think the governor is keeping his campaign promises.  For those who are unaware of the controversy, 32% share this view.
  • Cuomo’s job approval as governor, overall, is 47%, little changed from the 48% he received in July (Trend).  Among voters familiar with the controversy, 43% give the governor a positive job rating.  In contrast, the governor receives a 51% approval score from voters unfamiliar with the recent Moreland Commission news.  The legislature continues to be unpopular.  27% approve of the work of the New York State Senate, (Trend) and 27% give a positive score to the New York State Assembly (Trend).
  • As noted above, a majority of voters statewide, 53%, have a favorable impression of the governor including 52% of those who have heard about the controversy and 54% of those who have not.  But, the governor’s unfavorable rating is 39% among voters who are aware compared with only 25% among those who are unaware of the controversy.
  • 60% of voters see Cuomo as a good leader for the state, and 58% believe he cares about the average person.  These views are relatively unchanged from last month. Yet, among voters who have heard of the controversy, 56% think Governor Cuomo is a good leader compared with 64% among those who are unaware of the issue with the Moreland Commission.
  • There is little movement in voters’ views about the direction of the state since last month.  48% of voters think the state is on the right path, and 45% do not.  In July, 47% had a positive opinion of the course the state was taking, and 46% had a negative view (Trend).  The awareness of the controversy makes no difference in voters’ assessment of the direction of the state.
  • Although a slim majority of voters, 51%, think the state is in need of major changes, and an additional 6% believe it is broken and beyond repair.  The numbers of New Yorkers who think the state is in need of major change has declined during Cuomo’s tenure as governor.  When Cuomo first took office in January 2011, 73% of voters wanted to see major changes in state government, and 10% thought the state was could not be fixed.

 
Cuomo vs. Christie:  Competing Controversies

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

7/9: Cuomo Outdistancing Largely Unknown GOP Challenger Astorino

©istockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr.

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has a sizable lead over his Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in this Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 NY/Marist Poll. Cuomo is advantaged by strong support from his Democratic base, in addition, to leading among independents and even attracting a notable proportion of Republicans.  Despite voters’ lingering concerns about the economy, Astorino has had difficulty getting traction.  A majority of voters do not have an opinion of him, and those who do, divide.  Governor Cuomo even outperforms his challenger among voters who see the state as still needing major changes or who see taxes or economic development as the top state priority.

“The combination of Cuomo’s standing and voters’ lack of familiarity with Astorino has resulted in a lopsided contest for governor in this Democratic state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Getting well known requires a lot of resources which will be more than matched by the governor’s war chest.”

Click Here for Complete July 9, 2014 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Poll Points

Voters’ Impressions of the Governor Account for Wide Lead

 63%, overall, say Cuomo is a good leader for NYS, and 60% believe he cares about the average person.

Economy Still Top Challenge

Voters point to a number of economic issues when asked about their top priority for the state.  Jobs, economic development, and taxes are three of the top four issues cited.  Education ranks second, overall.

  • Voters divide about whether the state is on track. (Trend) 47% believe it is on the right path, while 46% disagree. This is comparable to results seen in March.
  • 60% still believe the state remains in a recession although this is down from 65% four months ago. (Trend) Impressions about the economy have improved slightly in New York City and its suburbs, but there has been little change Upstate.
  • A sign that voters may be more optimistic about the state’s economic future is that 56% believe the worst of the economic slump has passed.  A majority of voters in all three regions of the state share this view.

For more analysis see Lee Miringoff’s blog, “Incumbent Cuomo Favored by Those Who Want Change.”

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

3/6: Cuomo Pummels GOP Opponents, But…

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo’s re-election prospects are promising.  Cuomo outdistances each of his potential GOP rivals by at least 40 percentage points.  Cuomo also remains well-liked by most registered voters despite the lowest job approval rating the governor has received since taking office in 2011.  So, what accounts for the sharp drop in Cuomo’s job performance rating?  The view of many voters that the state’s economy is still struggling plays a role.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Governor Cuomo’s opponents face an uphill fight to unseat him this November,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Voters are comfortable with Cuomo but he still needs to convince many that the economy is turning around.”

Click Here for Complete March 6, 2014 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

Looking ahead to this November’s gubernatorial election, Cuomo maintains a robust lead over his potential Republican challengers.  Among registered voters in New York State, here is how these hypothetical contests stand:

  • Cuomo — 65% — outpaces Rob Astorino — 25% — by 40 percentage points.  One in ten voters in New York State — 10% — is undecided.  Cuomo — 65% — had a similar advantage against Astorino — 23% — when NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question last November.  At that time, 12% of voters were undecided.
  • Against Carl Paladino, Cuomo has the support of nearly seven in ten voters — 68%.  This compares with 25% for Paladino.  Eight percent are undecided.  Last fall, 67% backed Cuomo while 24% were for Paladino.  Nine percent, then, were undecided.
  • Cuomo — 70% — trounces Donald Trump — 26% — by 44 percentage points.  Five percent are undecided.  In that previous survey, 70% supported Cuomo compared with 24% for Trump.  Seven percent were undecided.

Cuomo’s re-election chances stand firm despite a steep decline in his job approval rating.  42% of registered voters statewide approve of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This includes 7% who think he is doing an excellent job and 35% who believe he is doing a good one.  38% rate Cuomo’s job performance as fair, and nearly one in five voters — 18% — calls it poor.  Three percent are unsure.

In November, 52% of voters gave Cuomo high marks.  Included here were 8% who thought Cuomo was doing an excellent job and 44% who said he was doing a good one.  31%, at that time, thought the governor was doing an average job while 13% reported he was doing a poor one.  Three percent were unsure.

Regardless of party, region, or race, there has been a drop in Cuomo’s approval rating.  However, the largest change has occurred among Latino and African American voters.

By race:

  • Among registered voters who are Latino, 41% approve of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 62% who had this view in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
  • 42% of African American voters, compared with 57% in the fall, think well of how Cuomo is performing as governor.
  • Among white voters, 44% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This compares with 49% in November. 

By party:

  • 51% of Democrats give Cuomo high marks while 63% did so in that previous survey.
  • Among Republicans, 33% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  39% shared this view in November.
  • 34% of non-enrolled voters give Cuomo high marks while nearly half — 48% — did so in the fall.

By region:

  • 50% of voters in New York City approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This compares with 56% in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey.
  • In the suburbs of New York City, 45% think well of how Cuomo is doing his job while 57% said the same in November.
  • 35% of upstate voters give Cuomo high marks while 47% had this opinion in that previous survey.

Voters’ views of the recession have impacted Cuomo’s job approval rating.  A slim majority of those who think the Empire State is not in a recession — 51% — think Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with only 37% of voters who say New York is in a recession.

How many voters statewide think New York is in a recession?  Close to two-thirds — 65% — believe the state is under the cloud of a recession.  34% say we are not in an economic slump, and 1% is unsure.  There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who think New York is in a recession.  When this question was last reported in NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s survey last April, 58% said the state was in a recession.  39% thought New York was not, and 3% were unsure. 

While Cuomo’s approval rating has fallen, his favorability remains strong.  63% of voters have a positive view of the governor while 33% have a negative impression of him.  Four percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This is little changed from November when 66% said they liked the governor.  28% reported they disliked him, and 6% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“Governor Cuomo is bolstered by a high favorability rating,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “His lower job performance score is not costing him at the ballot box.”

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

Table: NYS in a Recession?

Table: NYS in a Recession Over Time

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Voters Weigh In on Potential GOP Hopefuls 

Are Cuomo’s potential challengers viewed positively by voters?  61% of voters have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump.  36% think well of him, and 4% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Looking at Carl Paladino, 30% like him while 40% have a lesser opinion of him.  Three in ten voters — 30% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Rob Astorino is little known to a plurality of voters.  While 25% think well of him and 29% have a negative impression of Astorino, 46% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

When looking at Republicans statewide, Trump has the highest favorable rating.  60% of Republican voters like Trump while 37% do not.  Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When it comes to Paladino, there is little consensus among Republicans.  38% think highly of him while 31% do not.  32% have either never heard of Paladino or are unsure how to rate him.  Astorino is not well known among Republicans.  34% have a positive view of him while 17% have a negative opinion of him.  However, nearly half of Republicans — 49% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Donald Trump Favorability

Table: Carl Paladino Favorability

Table: Rob Astorino Favorability

Making Headway?

While a majority of voters think Governor Cuomo is improving Albany for the better, fewer say he is having a positive impact on the state, overall.

56% of New York voters think Cuomo is changing the way things work in Albany for the better.  This compares with 40% who disagree with that opinion.  Three percent are unsure.  In November, 61% thought Cuomo was making positive inroads in Albany while 35% did not think Cuomo was changing it for the better.  Four percent, at that time, were unsure.

However, when it comes to the impact Cuomo is having on New York State, 45% say he is improving it.  23% report Cuomo is changing it for the worse, and 29% think he is not having any effect on the Empire State.  Three percent are unsure.

What do voters think of Cuomo’s political ideology?

36% call him a liberal.  46% say he is a moderate, and 12% describe him as a conservative.  Six percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since November when 35% thought the governor was liberal.  45% believed he was a moderate, and 11% said he was conservative.  Nine percent were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on New York State

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

Directional Divide 

50% of New York voters think the state is moving in the right direction.  However, 47% say it is moving in the wrong one.  Three percent are unsure.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 50% thought the state was on course.  45% reported it had fallen off the track, and 5% were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Status Quo for Schumer and Gillibrand

53% of registered voters believe Senator Chuck Schumer is doing either an excellent — 15% — or good — 38% — job in office.  30% describe his performance as fair while 14% believe he is doing a poor job.  Three percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.  Schumer’s approval rating is solid.  In the fall, 56% thought highly of how Schumer was doing in the U.S. Senate.  26% rated his performance as average while 15% thought he fell short.  Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Kirsten Gillibrand’s job approval rating, 45% say she is doing either an excellent — 10% — or good — 35% — job in office.  31% say she is doing a fair job while 12% think she is performing poorly.  11% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Previously, 47% gave Gillibrand high marks.  30% thought her performance was fair, and 12% said it was lacking.  12% had either never heard of Gillibrand or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

November 26, 2013 by  
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is a strong, early favorite to win re-election as he heads into 2014.  When matched against several potential Republican gubernatorial candidates, Cuomo leads each of them by at least 40 percentage points.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo (courtesy of N.Y. State)

“Right now, Governor Cuomo is in good shape to win a second term.  None of Governor Cuomo’s likely challengers are in striking distance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, voters think any plans Cuomo might have for 2016 need to take a backseat until Hillary Clinton declares her intentions.”

Click Here for Complete November 26, 2013 Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

If the 2014 election for New York State Governor were held today, here is how Governor Cuomo would fare among registered voters in New York State:

  • Against Steve McLaughlin, Cuomo would garner 64% while McLaughlin would receive 24%.  12% are undecided.
  • 65% would back Cuomo compared with 23% for Rob Astorino.  12% are undecided.
  • If Cuomo were to face off in a rematch against Carl Paladino, Cuomo — 67% — would defeat Paladino — 24% — by 43 percentage points.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • 70% of registered voters would support Cuomo in a contest against Donald Trump — 24%.  Seven percent are undecided.

A majority of registered voters in New York State — 52% — approves of the job the governor is doing.  This includes 8% of voters who think Cuomo is doing an excellent job and 44% who describe Cuomo’s job performance as good.  31% give Cuomo fair marks while 13% report he is performing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 54% of registered voters approved of how Mr. Cuomo was performing in office.  27% rated his job as fair while 14% believed his performance was subpar.  Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

By party:

  • Cuomo’s approval rating is strong among his base.  63% of Democrats statewide think well of how Cuomo is doing his job.  This compares with 66% in April.
  • Among Republicans, 39% approve of Cuomo’s job performance.  This is little changed from the spring when 37% had this view.
  • Cuomo’s approval rating has changed little among non-enrolled voters.  48% of these voters approve of Cuomo’s job performance compared with 46% in April.

By region:

  • New York voters’ rating of Cuomo has changed little throughout the state.
  • In New York City, 56% of voters give Cuomo high marks.  A similar 58% had this opinion in the previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll.
  • In the suburbs of New York City, 57% applaud Cuomo’s job performance.  Here, too, Cuomo’s approval rating is status quo.  59% of suburban voters thought this way in April.
  • A plurality of upstate voters — 47% — approve of how Governor Cuomo is doing his job.  This is comparable to the 48% in this region who said the same in the spring. 

Cuomo also continues to be well-liked in New York State.  Two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — have a favorable view of the governor.  28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 6% have either never heard of Cuomo or are unsure how to rate him.  In April, similar proportions of registered voters shared these views.  65% had a positive view of Cuomo.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 8% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/McLaughlin

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Astorino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Paladino

Table: 2014 New York State Governor’s Race: Cuomo/Trump

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Approval Rating Over Time

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo Favorability Over Time

Cuomo Viewed as Making Positive Mark on Albany and Focused on Empire State

About six in ten registered voters in New York State — 61% — think Cuomo is changing the way things in Albany work for the better.  35% do not think the governor is improving Albany, and 4% are unsure.  In April, 58% of voters thought Governor Cuomo was positively changing state government.  33% had the opposite view, and 9% were unsure.

Is Cuomo paying too much attention to national politics and not enough attention to the Empire State?  59% do not think he is focused on the national agenda while 35% say he is.  Six percent are unsure.  In the spring, 51% of voters believed Cuomo’s attention was focused on New York while 40% thought he was too concerned with national politics.  Nine percent, at that time, were unsure.

What are voters’ perceptions of Cuomo’s political ideology?  45% say he is a moderate.  35% think he is a liberal while 11% believe he is a conservative.  Nine percent are unsure.  In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 38% described Cuomo as a moderate.  34% said he was a liberal, and 13% reported he was conservative.  15%, then, were unsure.

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Impact on Albany Over Time

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Attention to National Politics

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology

Table: Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Ideology Over Time

2016: Cuomo Trails Clinton by 50 Points Among Dems, but Both Lead Christie 

If Cuomo were to turn to the national stage and run for president of the United States in 2016, what would his electoral chances look like?  In this hypothetical contest for the Democratic nomination, among New York State registered Democrats, Cuomo comes in a very distant second behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  Clinton leads all of her potential Democratic opponents by more than four to one in New York.

64% of registered Democrats statewide support Clinton compared with 14% for Andrew Cuomo.  Eight percent back Vice President Joe Biden while Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren garners 6%.  Three percent support Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and 5% are undecided.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads a crowded GOP primary field.  Among registered Republicans in New York State, Christie has the backing of 40%.  10% are for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul while the same proportion — 10% — supports Florida Senator Marco Rubio.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has the support of 8% compared with 5% for Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker each garners 3%.  New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has the backing of 2%.  An additional 2% support former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.  15% are undecided.

However, when matched against Cuomo or Clinton in the general election contest, Christie does not fare as well in this very blue state.  Cuomo leads Christie, 51% to 44%, among New York’s registered voters.  Five percent are undecided.  Clinton has a wider lead over Christie.  57% of registered voters in New York State support Clinton compared with 39% for Christie.  Four percent are undecided.

Table: 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary (NYS Democrats)

Table: 2016 Republican Presidential Primary (NYS Republicans)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Cuomo/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Table: 2016 Hypothetical Presidential Tossup: Clinton/Christie (NYS Registered Voters)

Voters Don’t Blame Cuomo for State’s Sluggish Economy 

67% of registered voters think Governor Cuomo inherited the state’s economic woes while 27% say the condition of the economy is a result of his policies.  Five percent are unsure.  When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist last reported this question, 74% thought Cuomo inherited New York’s economic slump while 17% said the state’s economic conditions are mostly a result of his own policies.  Nine percent were unsure.

Looking at how New York’s economy is performing, a slim majority of registered voters in New York — 51% — say it has stayed about the same.  This compares with 20% who report it has gotten better, and 29% who say it has gotten worse.  In April, nearly identical proportions shared these views.  51% thought New York’s economy was steady state.  21% said it was getting better, and 29% believed it was getting worse.

On the personal side, 52% of New York voters believe their personal family finances will not change in the coming year. 31% think they will get better while 17% believe they will get worse.  In March, 56% said their money matters would be steady state.  25% thought they would improve while 19% said they would decline.

Table: New York State Economic Conditions Inherited or Result of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Policies

Table: New York State Economy

Table: New York State Economy Over Time

 

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year

Table: Family Finances in the Coming Year Over Time

Opposition to Hydrofracking Grows

On the issue of hydrofracking, 47% of adults in New York oppose hydrofracking at the Marcellus Shale to extract natural gas.  37% support this technique, and 16% are unsure.  When this question was last reported in March, 39% opposed hydrofracking while 40% supported it.  21%, at that time, were unsure.

The views of registered voters mirror those of New Yorkers overall.  49% are against using hydrofracking while 39% support it. 12% are unsure.  In March, voters divided.  41% opposed hydrofracking, and 40% supported it.  One in five — 20% — was unsure.

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Adults)

Table: Support for Hydrofracking in NYS (Registered Voters)

State Senate and Assembly Approval Ratings Still in the Basement

While a majority of voters approve of Governor Cuomo’s job performance, the New York State Senate and Assembly do not fare as well.  Only 27% of registered voters in New York State approve of the job the Senate is doing.  Included here are 2% who say they are doing an excellent job and 25% who think they are doing a good one.  47% rate the legislative body’s performance as fair.  22% report they are doing a poor job, and 4% have either never heard of the Senate or are unsure how to rate it.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last released this question in April, 29% gave the Senate high marks.  41% thought its performance was average, and 26% said it fell short.  Four percent, at that time, either never heard of it or were unsure how to rate it.

When it comes to the New York State Assembly, 26% think it is doing either an excellent — 2% — or good — 24% — job in office.  47% rate this legislative body’s performance as fair while 23% report its job is subpar.  Four percent are unsure.

In that previous survey, 27% of voters thought highly of how the Assembly was performing its job.  42% gave it mediocre marks while 24% said it was performing poorly.  Six percent were unsure.

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Senate Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating

Table: New York State Assembly Job Approval Rating (Over Time)

Half Say State Moving in Right Direction 

50% of registered voters think New York State is traveling on the right course.  45%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 5% are unsure.  In April, 53% of voters said the Empire State was on the right course.  41% believed it was off track.  Six percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of NYS

Table: Direction of NYS Over Time

Steady State for Schumer and Gillibrand

A majority of voters continue to give Chuck Schumer a positive rating for his performance as senator.  56% of registered voters in New York State approve of how Schumer is doing his job.  This includes 17% who say Schumer is doing an excellent job and 39% who think he is doing a good one.  26% rate Schumer’s performance in office as fair while 15% say he is doing a poor job.  Four percent have either never heard of Schumer or are unsure how to rate him.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in April, 58% praised Schumer.  24% thought he did an average job, and 13% said he fell short.  Six percent, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

There has also been little change in the perception of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s job performance.  47% think Gillibrand is doing either an excellent — 13% — or good — 34% — job.  30% give Gillibrand fair marks while 12% say she is performing poorly in her post.  12% have either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

In April, 48% approved of Gillibrand’s job performance.  27% gave her average grades while 9% said she performed poorly.  17% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

Table: Schumer Approval Rating

Table: Schumer Approval Rating (Over Time)

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating

Table: Gillibrand Approval Rating (Over Time)

Obama Approval Rating at Lowest Point in New York State

Four in ten registered voters — 40% — approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office.  This is Obama’s lowest approval rating in New York since taking office.  Included in Mr. Obama’s approval rating are 11% who think he is doing an excellent job and 29% who believe he is doing a good one.  25% give him fair marks while 36% rate the president’s job performance as poor.  Less than 1% has either never heard of Obama or are unsure how to rate him.

The president’s approval rating has plummeted.  In April, 52% gave the president high marks.  22% thought his job performance was average while 26% said he fell short.  One percent, at that time, had either never heard of Obama or was unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating

Table: Obama Approval Rating Over Time

 How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

7/24: A Look at the 2016 Presidential Contest

If former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to announce a candidacy for the Presidency, she would be the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  Clinton outdistances her closest potential opponent, Vice President Joe Biden, by almost five-to-one in a hypothetical contest.  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley each receives single-digit support.  On the Republican side, there is no clear frontrunner among the pack of potential candidates.

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“Get ready for round two of Hillary Clinton as the inevitable,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “The big question is whether she runs.”

 Among Democrats nationally including Democratic leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 63% Hillary Clinton
  • 13% Joe Biden
  •   6% Andrew Cuomo
  •   1% Martin O’Malley
  • 18% undecided

Do Democrats and Democratic leaning independents want a nominee who will continue President Obama’s policies, or would they rather a nominee who will move in another direction?  They divide.  46% believe it is more important to have a nominee who will move President Obama’s policies forward while 44% want someone with a new vision.  10% are unsure.

Looking at the Republican contest, among Republicans nationally including Republican leaning independents, here is how the contest stands:

  • 15% Chris Christie
  • 13% Paul Ryan
  • 12% Marco Rubio
  • 10% Jeb Bush
  •   9% Rand Paul
  •   7% Ted Cruz
  •   4% Rick Perry
  •   2% Rick Santorum
  •   2% Scott Walker
  •   1% Bobby Jindal
  •   1% Susana Martinez
  •   25% undecided

“In a crowded field, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is at the top of the list,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “None of the potential Republican candidates who appeal to the more activist base of the party have broken free of the pack.”

By more than two-to-one, Republicans and Republican leaning independents would prefer a Republican nominee who stands on conservative principles rather than one who can win.  Nearly two-thirds — 64% — think it is more important to have a candidate who stands firmly on Republican ground.  This compares with 31% who believe the priority should be nominating a candidate who can defeat his or her Democratic opponent.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Potential 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Democratic Presidential Nominee:  the Same or Different Vision as President Obama

Table: Potential 2016 Republican Presidential Primary or Caucus

Table: Priority for Republican Presidential Nominee:  Conservative Principles or Electability

Clinton Leads GOP Opponents in Potential 2016 General Election Matchups

Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner not only for her party’s nomination but also against the leading Republican presidential wannabes for 2016.  Chris Christie and Jeb Bush run the most competitively against Clinton yet she still leads Christie by 6 percentage points and Bush by 8. She outdistances her other possible Republican opponents by double-digits.

Among registered voters nationally, here is how Hillary Clinton fares against potential Republican candidates:

  • Clinton — 47% — leads Chris Christie — 41% — by 6 percentage points.  12% are undecided.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in April, Clinton — 46% — and Christie — 43% — were neck and neck.  11% were undecided.
  • Against Bush, Clinton is ahead by 8 percentage points.  Here, Clinton receives 48% to 40% for Bush.  12% are undecided.  In April, Clinton — 54% — led Bush — 38% — by 16 percentage points.  Eight percent, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a contest against Rubio, Clinton has a 12 percentage point advantage.  She receives the support of 50% of registered voters compared with 38% for Rubio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed on this question.  Clinton — 52% — outpaced Rubio — 40% — in McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey.
  • When matched against Paul, 50% of voters are for Clinton compared with 38% for Paul.  11% are undecided.  In April, 52% were for Clinton while 41% were for Paul.  Seven percent were undecided.
  • 53% of voters support Clinton when matched against Ryan — 37%.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Clinton — 52% — also outdistances Perry — 36%.  12% are undecided.

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Christie

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Bush

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Rubio

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Paul

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Ryan

Table: Potential 2016 Presidential Contest: Clinton/Perry

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

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