11/26: Cuomo Well-Positioned to Launch Re-Election Bid

Tags: Andrew Cuomo, Chris Christie, Chuck Schumer, Cuomo Approval Rating, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Kirsten Gillibrand, President Barack Obama

11/21: A View from the Band: Coming of Age and the JFK Assassination

November 21, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured

6 Comments

It was a once in a lifetime experience turned tragic. On the morning of November 22, 1963, a young John Sparks joined his fellow high school band members to play “Hail to the Chief” for President John F. Kennedy. Hours later, like the rest of the world, Sparks learned of Kennedy’s assassination.

The experience shaped Sparks’ career path as a journalist., and as a native Texan, Sparks began to learn of unique personal connections that he had to the assassination of the president. Years later, he would uncover more associations during his professional career as a journalist. Five decades later, Sparks, who also serves as The Marist Poll’s Senior Website Editor, shares his unique perspective of that day in a 23 minute documentary, “A View from the Band: Coming of Age and the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy.”

Watch “A View from the Band” here.

In just the latest chapter in Sparks’ illustrious career in broadcast journalism, Sparks is currently co-host of The Texas Daily on KTXD-TV in Dallas, Texas. To mark the anniversary of Kennedy’s assassination, Sparks will serve as Executive Producer and co-anchor during 12 hours of coverage tomorrow, Friday, November 22, 2013. The special will air on Channel 47 in Dallas, beginning at 7 A.M. CST. “JFK 50: A Texas Tribute” will also be streamed online at www.ktxdtv.com.

Tags: A View from the Band, John F. Kennedy, John Sparks

11/21: Kennedy’s Words Live on Fifty Years Later

November 21, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, Odds and Ends Polls

Click Here for Complete November 21, 2013 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Tomorrow marks the fiftieth anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, and many of President Kennedy’s words continue to ring true. Which of the president’s quotes do Americans feel is most meaningful today? More than six in ten — 62% — think, “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country,” is most relevant. More than one in five — 22% — believes the most meaningful quote from President Kennedy is, “Let us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.” “The torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans — born in this century, tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace” receives 7% while another 7% say, “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard,” is the most memorable. Three percent of Americans are unsure.

Regardless of age, “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country” is considered to be the most evocative John F. Kennedy quote. 72% of Americans 60 and older, 63% of those 45 to 59, and 57% of those 30 to 44 have this view. Even a plurality of those under the age of 30, 47%, say the same. Among this age group, one-third — 33% — reports that “Let us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate” is the most relevant quote by John F. Kennedy.

And, when it comes to Kennedy’s legacy, most Americans say, fifty years from now, Kennedy will be remembered for his assassination and not his accomplishments while in office. More than seven in ten adults nationally — 71% — report Kennedy’s death will be his legacy while 24% think the president’s initiatives will be thought of as the highlight of his administration. Five percent are unsure.

Table: Most Meaningful Quote of President John F. Kennedy (U.S. Adults)

Table: Legacy of President John F. Kennedy (U.S. Adults)

Nearly Six in Ten Think JFK Assassination was a Conspiracy

58% of Americans believe Lee Harvey Oswald did not act alone when he shot and killed President Kennedy. 28% think only one person was involved, and 14% are unsure. Americans under the age of 30 — 67% — are more likely than any other age group to say that Kennedy’s assassination was a conspiracy. This compares with 54% of those 30 to 44, 57% of Americans 45 to 59, and 59% of those 60 and older.

How did Americans older than 54 years old find out about Kennedy’s death? Television was the source for 35%. 27% heard from a teacher while 19% heard the news over the radio. Five percent were told by a friend or neighbor, and an additional 5% heard from a colleague at work. A family member was the first source of information for 4% of Americans older than 54 while 3% heard the tragic news from a stranger. One percent learned the news from the newspaper while an additional 1% found out in another way. One percent is unsure.

Table: Was President John F. Kennedy’s Assassination a Conspiracy? (U.S. Adults)

Table: How Americans Learned of President John F. Kennedy’s Assassination (U.S. Adults Born Before 1959)

September 11^th, Not Kennedy Assassination, Considered Most Significant Tragedy

When asked which tragic event was the most significant for people living at the time, nearly half of Americans — 49% — report the September 11^th terrorist attacks were the most impactful event to have occurred. 36% report Pearl Harbor was the most significant while 13% report President Kennedy’s assassination was the most consequential. One percent says the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger was the most significant. Two percent are unsure.

Age plays a role. Younger Americans are the most likely to say September 11^th was the most significant tragic event. Majorities of those under 30 — 57% — and those 30 to 44 — 53% — think September 11^th had the most impact. Nearly half — 49% — of Americans 45 to 59 agree. However, among residents 60 and older, 41% think Pearl Harbor was the most significant event to occur while 40% have this impression of September 11^th.

A gender gap exists. 55% of women think September 11^th was the most significant. This compares with 42% of men who say the same. 41% of men, however, believe Pearl Harbor was the most tragic event to occur.

Table: Most Significant Tragic Event (U.S. Adults)

Click Here for Complete November 4, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

Tags: Assassination, John F. Kennedy, Legacy

11/4: De Blasio with BIG Lead over Lhota Going into Election Day

November 4, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

4 Comments

The clock is counting down to Election Day, and in this final NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Democrat Bill de Blasio has a very wide lead over Republican Joe Lhota among New York City likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. De Blasio has the support of 65% of likely voters while Lhota receives 24%. Independence candidate Adolfo Carrion has 4% while 1% of likely voters citywide wants another candidate to be elected. Six percent are undecided.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“Bill de Blasio continues to be the overwhelming favorite with New York City voters while Joe Lhota can’t get any traction,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Even a Peyton Manning fourth quarter comeback wouldn’t be enough to close this large gap.”

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question last month, 67% of likely voters citywide supported de Blasio. 23% backed Lhota while Carrion had the support of 2%. One percent was for another candidate, and 7% were undecided.

By party:

Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 79% are for de Blasio compared with 14% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion. In October, 82% backed de Blasio while 13% were for Lhota. One percent was behind Carrion.
When it comes to likely Republican voters, 71% are for Lhota while 21% are for de Blasio. Three percent support Carrion. In that previous survey, 69% of likely Republican voters backed Lhota while 16% were for de Blasio, and 1% supported Carrion.
Among non-enrolled voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 50% support de Blasio. 29% are for Lhota while 11% back Carrion. Last month, 58% of likely non-enrolled voters were for de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota. Seven percent, at that time, backed Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio receives, at least, majority support. Among African American voters who are likely to cast a ballot, 90% support de Blasio. Lhota and Carrion each receives 2%. 72% of Latino voters are for de Blasio while 10% are for Lhota, and 9% back Carrion. Among likely voters who are white, 53% support de Blasio, 39% back Lhota, and 2% are for Carrion.

Before last Wednesday’s debate, 65% of likely voters supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota. Carrion received the support of 4% while 1% wanted another candidate to be mayor. Six percent were undecided. After the debate, 65% supported de Blasio while 24% were for Lhota. Three percent backed Carrion while 1% were for another candidate. Seven percent were undecided.

“The debate season has come and gone,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “But, the debates this fall have done more to reinforce voters’ impressions of the candidates than to change the character of the race.”

How strongly do likely voters citywide support their choice of candidate? 61% say they strongly support their selection for mayor while 30% are somewhat committed to their choice. Eight percent might vote differently, and 1% is unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate. 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick, and 9% said they might vote differently. Two percent were unsure.

65% of likely voters who support de Blasio say they will not waver in their commitment to him. This compares with 54% of likely voters who back Lhota and say they are strongly committed to him. Last month, 56% of de Blasio’s backers reported they strongly supported him while 49% of Lhota’s backers had a similar level of intensity.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, de Blasio — 63% — is ahead of Lhota — 21% — by 42 percentage points. Carrion receives the support of 5% while 1% wants someone else to be elected. Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Done Deal for de Blasio?

Most registered voters in New York City think, regardless of who they plan to support, de Blasio will defeat Lhota tomorrow. 83% of voters believe de Blasio will win while only 8% think Lhota will be victorious. Nine percent are undecided. Even an overwhelming proportion of Lhota’s backers — 81% — think de Blasio will be the city’s next mayor.

Table: Who Do You Think Will Win the Election for New York City Mayor? (NYC Registered Voters)

About Two-Thirds Perceive de Blasio Favorably… Upside Down Rating for Lhota

64% of registered voters in New York City have a favorable opinion of de Blasio. 26% have an unfavorable one, and 10% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In October, similar proportions shared these views. 65% of registered voters thought well of de Blasio. 23% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 12%, at that time, had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.

When it comes to Lhota, 47% have an unfavorable view of him. 32% have a favorable one, and 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 43% of registered voters had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota while 32% had a favorable one. 25% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Trumps Lhota on the Issues

About two-thirds of registered voters — 66% — think de Blasio is the candidate who is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family. 18%, however, say Lhota is the candidate who will improve affordability in the city. 15% are unsure. Last month, 67% of registered voters thought de Blasio was more capable to make the city affordable. 19% had this impression of Lhota, and 14%, at that time, were unsure.

Looking at crime in the city, 48% of registered voters believe de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 32% think Lhota is better able to keep the city safe. About one in five — 19% — is unsure. In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 52% said de Blasio would make the city safer. 31% believed Lhota was better able to keep crime down, and 17% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Ideologically Speaking

What are voters’ impressions of de Blasio’s political ideology? A majority of registered voters — 56% — thinks his ideology is about right. 29% say he is too liberal while 4% say he is too conservative. 11% are unsure. In October, 59% thought de Blasio’s ideology was in line. 24% reported he was too liberal while 3% said he was too conservative. 14% were unsure.

When it comes to Lhota’s political ideology, 34% say his ideology is about right. 35% believe Lhota is too conservative while 8% say Lhota is too liberal. 23% are unsure. Last month, 35% of registered voters reported Lhota’s ideology was about right. 31% said he was too conservative while only 8% believed he was too liberal. 26%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Time for Change, Say More than Six in Ten

64% of registered voters want the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 31% want him to continue Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s policies. Six percent are unsure. There has been little change since NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s October survey. At that time, 66% wanted a departure from Bloomberg’s policies. 29% reported they thought the city’s current policies should be continued, and 6% were unsure.

So, how do voters think Bloomberg is doing in office? 47% say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office. This includes 13% who believe he is doing an excellent job and 34% who think he is doing a good one. 29% rate Bloomberg’s approval rating as fair while 20% report he is performing poorly. Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 45% gave Bloomberg high marks. 34% said he was doing a fair job while 18% thought Bloomberg’s job performance was subpar. Two percent were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

The City’s Course

49% of registered voters think New York City is moving in the right direction while 42% believe it is moving in the wrong one. Nine percent are unsure. When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question, 46% of voters thought the city was traveling on the right road while 46% said it needed a new path. Eight percent were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Click Here for Complete October 23, 2013 USA HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll Release and Tables

Tags: Adolfo Carrion, Bill de Blasio, Bloomberg approval rating, Direction of NYC, Joe Lhota, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, NYC Mayor

10/23: Youth Football Takes Hard Hit… One-Third of Americans Less Likely to Allow Son to Play Football because of Head Injury Risk

October 22, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, Football, Sports, Sports Bench

4 Comments

Most Americans are aware of the connection between concussions suffered while playing football and long-term brain injury, and that information would influence some Americans’ decision to allow their son to play the sport if they had to make the choice. About one in three Americans say this knowledge would make them less likely to allow a son to participate in the game. In fact, nearly one in five Americans say this risk would be the key factor in deciding whether or not they would allow their son to step onto the gridiron. About one-third of Americans has become more concerned because of the link between concussions suffered while playing football and long-term brain injury.

This HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll has been conducted in conjunction with the Marist College Center for Sports Communication.

“Historically, youth football has fueled the NFL,” says Dr. Keith Strudler, Director of The Marist College Center for Sports Communication. “Parents’ concern about the safety of the game could jeopardize the future of the sport.”

Most U.S. adults — 86% — have heard at least a little about the connection between concussions inflicted while on the football field and long-term brain injury. This includes 55% who have heard either a great deal or good amount and 31% who have heard a little about this link. 14% have heard nothing at all about it.

Awareness varies based upon a family’s income. While about two-thirds of Americans who earn $50,000 or more annually — 66% — have heard a great deal or a good amount about the issue, 47% of those who earn less say the same. There are also differences based on education. While 63% of college graduates have heard a great deal or a good amount about the link between these head injuries and long-term brain trauma, 50% of those without a college degree are comparably aware.

33% of Americans say the link between head injuries in football and long-term brain trauma would make them less likely to allow their son to play football if they had to make that choice. Only 7% report it would make them more likely to do so, and 60% say it would make no difference to their decision. Just how many Americans would ultimately allow their son to play the game? 85% would while a notable 13% would not. Two percent are unsure.

For almost one in five Americans — 16%, the risk of long-term brain injury due to youth football participation would be the deciding factor in whether or not to allow their son to play football. And, a majority of U.S. adults — 56% — say it would be one of the factors that influences their decision. 28% report this information would play no role at all in making that choice.

Nearly four in ten U.S. residents — 39% — report the recent information about long-term brain injury as a result of concussions incurred while playing football hasn’t changed their level of concern about the game. However, 32% say it has made them more concerned because of the serious risk of long-term brain injury while 30% report it has made them less concerned because coaches, parents, and players are more informed and can take greater precautions.

Table: Awareness of Connection between Concussion while Playing Football and Long-term Brain Injury (U.S. Adults)

Table: Allow Son to Play Football (U.S. Adults)

Table: More or Less Likely to Allow Son to Play Football Knowing the Connection between Concussion while Playing Football and Long-term Brain Injury (U.S. Adults)

Table: Whether Connection between Concussion while Playing Football and Long-term Brain Injury is Key Factor in Deciding Youth Football Participation (U.S. Adults)

Table: Level of Concern about Connection between Concussion while Playing Football and Long-term Brain Injury (U.S. Adults)

Weighing the Pros and Cons

Seven in ten Americans — 70% — think the benefits of playing football outweigh the risk of injury. However, about one in four — 24% — believe the risk of injury is too high. Seven percent are unsure.

A similar proportion of adults nationally — 74% — think playing football is a good way to build character and boys should be encouraged to play the game. However, one in five — 20% — say the risk of injury is too high to allow boys to play football. Six percent are unsure.

“What will be interesting to watch is if other sports begin to recruit those kids whose parents keep them from football,” says Dr. Keith Strudler, Director of The Marist College Center for Sports Communication. “Football’s loss could be the inevitable gain of lacrosse, baseball, or even soccer.”

Table: Do the Benefits of Football Outweigh Risk of Injury? (U.S. Adults)

Table: Is Football a Good Way to Build Character or is the Risk of Injury Too High (U.S. Adults)

More Than One in Ten Fans Less Likely to Enjoy Game

The recent information about the link between concussions suffered while playing football and long-term brain injury makes watching the sport less enjoyable for a notable 14% of football fans. Only 2% report it makes the game more enjoyable to watch, and 84% say it makes no difference to their viewing pleasure.

In their own communities, how big of a deal is football? Nearly seven in ten Americans — 69% — report a lot of people follow and talk about the sport. One in four — 25% — say some people are engaged in the game. Only 7% do not follow or talk about football.

Table: Has Enjoyment of Football Changed because of Link to Injury? (Fans Nationally)

Table: Community Interest in Football (U.S. Adults)

About Keith Strudler, Ph.D.

Keith Strudler, Ph.D., is the director for the Marist College Center for Sports Communication. Dr. Strudler founded Marist’s popular concentration in sports communication in 2002, now one of the nation’s largest in the discipline. He studies and teaches in the areas of sports media, sports and society, and sports reporting and information. Dr. Strudler also writes weekly sports commentary for WAMC, an NPR radio station in Albany, NY.

Tags: Brain Injury, Concussions, HBO Real Sports, Youth Football

10/18: McAuliffe Leads Cuccinelli by 8 Percentage Points in Virginia Governor’s Race

October 18, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, Politics

Click Here for Complete October 18th, 2013 Virginia NBC4/NBC News/Marist Poll Release and Tables

In the contest for Virginia governor, Democrat Terry McAuliffe receives the support of 46% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot compared with 38% for his Republican challenger, Ken Cuccinelli. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis garners 9% of the vote while 1% backs another candidate. Seven percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided.

“Just when Cuccinelli needed to start closing the gap against McAuliffe, the government shutdown became a huge roadblock,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The big question is whether or not Cuccinelli can now overcome the damaged GOP brand and his own high negative rating to make the contest more competitive.”

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question in September, McAuliffe — 43% — edged Cuccinelli — 38% — among likely voters statewide. Sarvis had the support of 8% while 1% backed another candidate. 10%, at that time, were undecided.

Key points:

Party ID. A wide partisan divide exists. Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 88% — support McAuliffe while most Republicans likely to cast a ballot are for Cuccinelli — 83%. This is little changed from last month when 89% of likely Democratic voters supported McAuliffe, and 83% of likely Republican voters were for Cuccinelli. Among independent voters who are likely to vote, 41% are for McAuliffe while 33% are for Cuccinelli. 15% support Sarvis. In September, the contest among independent voters was slightly closer. 36% of independent voters were behind McAuliffe while 34% backed Cuccinelli. 15%, at that time, supported Sarvis.
Gender. A gender gap still exists. McAuliffe — 52% — leads Cuccinelli — 32% — by double digits among women who are likely to vote. However, among men who are likely to cast a ballot, Cuccinelli — 44% — edges McAuliffe — 40%. Last month, McAuliffe — 50% — outpaced Cuccinelli — 32% — among women. Among men, Cuccinelli — 44% — led McAuliffe — 36% — by eight percentage points.
Intensity of Support. 60% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor say they strongly support their choice. 32% somewhat support their candidate, and 8% might vote differently. Only 1% is unsure. In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions held these views. 59% of likely voters with a candidate preference for Virginia governor were firmly committed to their choice while 31% were somewhat behind him. Nine percent said they might vote differently, and 1% was unsure. Among Cucinelli’s supporters, 67% strongly support him while 57% of McAuliffe’s backers express a similar level of commitment to him. In September, 60% of Cuccinelli’s supporters and 59% of McAuliffe’s backers said they would not waver in their commitment to their choice of candidate.

Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, McAuliffe still leads Cuccinelli. 44% are for McAuliffe while 36% are for Cuccinelli. Sarvis has the support of 10% while 1% is for another candidate. Nine percent are undecided. In NBC4/NBC News/Marist’s previous poll, 41% of registered voters were for McAuliffe while 35% supported Cuccinelli. Eight percent backed Sarvis, and 1% supported another candidate. 14%, at the time, were undecided.

How would the contest look without Sarvis? Among Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 52% support McAuliffe compared with 43% for Cuccinelli. One percent is behind another candidate, and 4% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: 2013 Gubernatorial Tossup without Sarvis (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Tarnished Images? Voters Divide over McAuliffe… Cuccinelli with High Negatives

While 40% of Virginia residents have a positive view of McAuliffe, 39% have an unfavorable impression of him. 21% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Similar proportions of registered voters share these views. 42% think well of McAuliffe while 41% have a lesser opinion of the candidate. 17% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

Last month, 38% of Virginia residents had a favorable view of McAuliffe. 32% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and a notable 30% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him. Looking at registered voters, 41% had a positive opinion of McAuliffe while 34% had an unfavorable one. 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate McAuliffe.

A majority of Virginia residents — 51% — has an unfavorable view of Cuccinelli. 34% have a positive opinion of him, and 15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. Comparable portions of registered voters have these opinions. 53% of registered voters have a negative view of Cuccinelli while 36% have a positive one. 12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In last month’s survey, 45% of adults statewide had an unfavorable opinion of Cuccinelli while 31% had a favorable one. 23%, at that time, had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters in Virginia, 47% had a lesser impression of Cuccinelli while 34% had a favorable view of him. 19% had either never heard of Cuccinelli or were unsure how to rate him.

Sarvis has become somewhat better-known to Virginians, but a majority — 56% — still has either never heard of Sarvis or is unsure how to rate him. 23% have a favorable opinion of him, and 21% have an unfavorable view of him. Among registered voters, a similar 55% have either never heard of Sarvis or are unsure how to rate him. 23% of voters have a positive impression of the candidate while 22% have a negative one.

Last month, 66% of Virginia residents had either never heard of Sarvis or were unsure how to rate him. 20% had a favorable view of the candidate while 15% had an unfavorable impression of him. Among registered voters, 63%, at that time, did not have a clear opinion of Sarvis. This compares with 21% who thought well of him and 16% who had an unfavorable opinion of the candidate.

Table: McAuliffe Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Cuccinelli Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Table: Sarvis Favorability (Virginia Adults)

Majority Places Responsibility for Shutdown on Republicans

When it comes to who is mostly to blame for the government shutdown, a majority of Virginia adults — 53% — say the Republicans in Congress are more at fault. This compares with 29% who put the onus on President Barack Obama. 15% think each is equally to blame while 3% are unsure.

Similar proportions of registered voters in Virginia have these views. 54% say the Republican members in Congress are to blame while 29% think President Obama is mostly responsible for the shutdown. 14% think the Republicans in Congress and the president equally share the blame while 3% are unsure.

By party, 88% of Democrats think the Republicans in Congress are mostly at fault. This compares with 60% of Republicans who point the finger at President Obama. 17% of Republicans blame the members of their own party in Congress, and one in five Republicans — 20% — says both Obama and the Congressional GOP are to blame.

Tea Party support makes a difference among the GOP. Among Republicans who are Tea Party supporters, nearly eight in ten — 78% — believe President Obama is to blame. However, there is little consensus among Republicans who do not support the Tea Party. While a plurality — 42% — places the responsibility on the president, a notable 28% blame the Republicans in Congress, and 26% fault both the president and the GOP in Congress.

Looking at independent voters, a majority — 54% — puts the onus on the GOP in Congress while 28% say President Obama is mostly to blame for the shutdown. 16% report both are equally responsible.

38% of Virginia registered voters say the government shutdown will have a major impact on their vote for governor while 21% think it will have a minor one. 39% say the shutdown is not an issue at all, and 2% are unsure.

By party, a plurality of Democrats — 44% — says the government shutdown will be a major issue in determining their gubernatorial vote while half of Republicans — 50% — report the shutdown is not an issue at all when it comes to casting their ballot. But, Tea Party support again matters for Republicans. A majority of Republicans who support the Tea Party — 55% — says the government shutdown is no issue at all when it comes to their vote. This compares with a majority of Republicans who are not Tea Party supporters — 56% — who think the shutdown will be either a major or a minor issue when deciding for whom to vote.

Among independent voters, 40% think the shutdown is not an issue when it comes to picking their candidate. This compares with 37% who say the shutdown is a major issue and 21% who believe it is a minor one.

How many Virginians have been affected by the federal government shutdown? While 60% have not been impacted, a notable 39% say they or a member of their family have experienced changes to their employment status, services, or benefits. One percent is unsure. Identical proportions of registered voters in Virginia say the same. 60% have not been affected by the shutdown while 39% have felt the effects. One percent of registered voters in Virginia is unsure.

Table: Who is More to Blame for the Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults)

Table: Whether the Government Shutdown is an Issue in Deciding Vote for Governor (Virginia Adults)

Table: Personal Impact of the Federal Government Shutdown (Virginia Adults)

Damaged Brand?

The Republican Party is viewed negatively by many residents in Virginia. 61% of adults in the state have an unfavorable impression of the party. 32% have a favorable one, and 6% have either never heard of it or are unsure how to rate the Republican Party. Among registered voters in the state, 62% have a negative view of the GOP while 32% have a positive one. Five percent have either never heard of the GOP or are unsure how to rate it.

49% of Virginians view the Democratic Party unfavorably while 45% perceive it favorably. Six percent have either never heard of the Democratic Party or are unsure how to rate it. Looking at registered voters, 50% have a negative view of the Democratic Party while 45% have a positive one. Five percent have either never heard of the party or are unsure how to rate it.

Table: Favorability of the Republican Party (Virginia Adults)

Table: Favorability of the Democratic Party (Virginia Adults)

Northam Edges Jackson in Contest for Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ralph Northam receives the support of 48% of Virginia likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. 42% support Republican E.W. Jackson, and 1% mentions another candidate. Nine percent are undecided.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist reported this question last month, likely voters in Virginia divided. 44% supported Northam while 41% backed Jackson. One percent was for another candidate, and 13% were undecided.

How strongly are likely voters committed to their choice of candidate for lieutenant governor? Half of likely voters with a candidate preference — 50% — strongly support their choice. 38% are somewhat committed to their pick, and 12% might vote differently. Only 1% is unsure.

In September, 46% of likely voters with a candidate preference for lieutenant governor said they were firmly committed to their choice. 41% were somewhat behind their pick, and 11% said they might change their minds before Election Day. Two percent, at that time, were unsure.

Northam also has a six percentage point advantage among registered voters in Virginia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. 47% support Northam while 41% are behind Jackson. One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided. Last month, Northam had the backing of 42% of registered voters while 40% were for Jackson. One percent supported another candidate, and 16% were undecided.

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Likely Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

Table: Intensity of Support for Virginia Lieutenant Governor (Virginia Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Lieutenant Governor Tossup (Virginia Registered Voters including Leaners and Absentees)

McDonnell Approval Rating Status Quo

A majority of adults in Virginia — 53% — approves of the job Governor Bob McDonnell is doing in office. 31% disapprove, and 16% are unsure. Among registered voters in Virginia, 55% give McDonnell high marks. 32% say his performance has fallen short, and 13% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since last month. At that time, 51% of adults thought well of McDonnell’s job performance. 33% disapproved, and 16% were unsure. A majority of registered voters in that previous survey — 55% — approved of McDonnell’s job performance. 33% disapproved, and 12% were unsure.

Looking at McDonnell’s favorability, 48% of adults statewide have a positive impression of McDonnell while 35% have an unfavorable one. 17% have either never heard of McDonnell or are unsure how to rate him. Among registered voters, 49% view McDonnell favorably. 37% perceive him unfavorably, and 14% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.

In September, 49% of Virginia residents thought well of McDonnell while 32% did not. 19%, at that time, were unsure. Among registered voters, 52% had a positive opinion of McDonnell while 33% had an unfavorable impression of the governor. 15%, then, had either never heard of McDonnell or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Governor Bob McDonnell Favorability (Virginia Adults)

A State on Track?

While a majority of Virginians think the state is headed in the right direction, there has been a decline in the proportion of residents who have this opinion. 52% of adults statewide say the state is moving in the right direction while 42% think it is headed in the wrong one. Six percent are unsure. Registered voters reflect the views of residents overall. 53% of voters think Virginia is moving on the proper path while 41% say the state needs an alternate route. Six percent are unsure.

In September’s poll, nearly six in ten adults — 58% — reported the state was on course. This compares with 36% who said Virginia had fallen off the track. Six percent, then, were unsure. Among registered voters, 59% thought Virginia was on the correct path while 36% said it needed to be redirected. Five percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Direction of Virginia (Virginia Adults)

Majority Disapproves of Obama’s Job Performance

52% of adults in Virginia disapprove of how President Obama is doing his job while 45% approve. Four percent are unsure. Among registered voters statewide, 53% disapprove of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 45% approve. Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 48% of adults in Virginia gave the president high marks while 46% said his performance was not satisfactory. Six percent, at that time, were unsure. Looking at registered voters, 48% in September praised the president’s job performance while 47% thought it was lacking. Five percent were unsure.

Is President Obama viewed favorably in Virginia? He receives mixed reviews. 49% of residents have a positive opinion of the president while 48% have an unfavorable view of him. Three percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. The opinions of Virginia registered voters mirror those of residents, overall. 49% have a favorable view of President Obama while 49% have an unfavorable one. Two percent have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate the president.

When NBC4/NBC News/Marist last reported this question, 52% of Virginians thought well of Mr. Obama while 45% had a negative impression of him. Four percent had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him. At that time, 52% of registered voters perceived the president positively. 45% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 3% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Obama Approval Rating (Virginia Adults)

Table: Obama Favorability (Virginia Adults)

From Politics to Football…More than Seven in Ten Want Redskins to Keep Name

There has been much debate about whether or not the Washington Redskins should change their name. While more than one in five adults in Virginia — 21% — think the team should find a different name because “Redskins” is offensive to Native Americans, 73% believe the name should remain because it is a part of the team’s tradition. Six percent are unsure. Fans of the team agree. One in five — 20% — says the name should be changed while 78% want it to remain. Two percent are unsure.

Table: Whether or Not the Name of the Washington Redskins Should be Changed (Virginia Adults)

Tags: Cuccinelli, McAuliffe, McDonnell, Virginia Governor, Virginia Lieutenant Governor

10/11: De Blasio Leads Lhota by 44 Percentage Points in NYC Mayor’s Race

October 11, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Click Here for Complete October 11, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

With just a little more than three weeks until Election Day, Democrat Bill de Blasio outpaces his Republican opponent, Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%, among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has the support of 2%. One percent supports another candidate while 7% are undecided.

POLL MUST BE SOURCED: The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll

“This is a very lopsided contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Joe Lhota hasn’t gotten any traction to offset the Democratic registration advantage in the city.”

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, de Blasio — 65% — was ahead of Lhota — 22% — by 43 percentage points among likely voters. Carrion received the support of 3%. One percent backed another candidate, and 9%, at that time, were undecided.

By party:

Among Democrats who are likely to vote, 82% support de Blasio while 13% are for Lhota. One percent supports Carrion. Last month, 77% of Democrats backed de Blasio. 13% were behind Lhota, and 1% supported Carrion.
Looking at likely Republican voters, 69% back Lhota. 16% are for de Blasio, and 1% supports Carrion. In September’s survey, 63% of Republicans were for Lhota compared with 25% for de Blasio. Five percent were behind Carrion.
Among non-enrolled voters, de Blasio has the backing of 58%. Lhota garners 21%, and Carrion has 7%. In that previous survey, half of non-enrolled voters likely to cast a ballot — 50% — supported de Blasio compared with 24% for Lhota and 9% for Carrion.

Regardless of race, de Blasio has a wide lead over Lhota. Among white voters who are likely to participate on Election Day, 57% support de Blasio while 33% are for Lhota. In September, 50% of whites backed de Blasio while Lhota had the support of 37%. Among African American voters, de Blasio has 89% to 4% for Lhota. When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 86% of African American voters likely to cast a ballot supported de Blasio compared with 3% for Lhota. De Blasio has a 62 percentage point advantage over Lhota among Latinos who are likely to vote. Here, de Blasio receives 76% compared with 14% for Lhota. Last month, 74% of Latino voters likely to participate on Election Day were for de Blasio while 11% backed Lhota.

How strongly do likely voters with a candidate preference support their choice for mayor? 54% strongly support their pick while 36% are somewhat behind their candidate. Nine percent might vote differently, and 2% are unsure. When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 54% said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidate. 33% were somewhat behind their pick while 13% said they might change their minds before Election Day. One percent, at that time, was unsure.

Among likely voters who are for de Blasio, 56% strongly support him. This compares with 49% of Lhota’s backers who are firmly committed to him. This is little changed from September when 58% of de Blasio’s backers said they strongly supported him while 47% of Lhota’s supporters expressed the same level of support for him.

Looking at registered voters, de Blasio — 66% — outdistances Lhota — 20% — by 46 percentage points. Carrion has the support of 3% while 2% back another candidate. Nine percent are undecided. Last month, 63% of registered voters backed de Blasio while 20% supported Lhota. Four percent were for Carrion, and 2% backed another candidate. 12% were undecided.

What does the contest for mayor look like when all fifteen candidates on the ballot are taken into account? Little changes. Among likely voters in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted by absentee ballot, 64% support de Blasio compared with 21% for Lhota and 2% for Carrion. Jack Hidary and Michael Greys each receives 1%. Erick Salgado, Anthony Gronowicz, James McMillian, Michael Sanchez, Randy Credico, Dan Fein, Joseph Melaragno, Sam Sloan, Michael Dilger, and Carl Person each garners less than one percent of the vote. One percent mentions another candidate, and 8% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: Intensity of Support for New York City Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor (NYC Registered Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for New York City Mayor Including All Fifteen Candidates (NYC Likely Voters with Leaners and Absentee Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

65% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio while 23% have an unfavorable one. 12% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In September, 65% thought highly of de Blasio while 19% had an unfavorable view of him. 16%, at that time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

It’s a different story when it comes to Lhota. 43% have an unfavorable impression of the candidate. 32% have a positive view of him, and a notable 25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. There has been little change on this question since September when 41% had an unfavorable opinion of Lhota, and 29% said they had a favorable one. Three in ten — 30% — had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio Tops Lhota on Issues and Qualities

How do de Blasio and Lhota stack up when it comes to campaign issues and candidate qualities? Among registered voters in New York City:

Two out of three — 67% — think de Blasio is better able to make the city more affordable for the average family. 19% have this view of Lhota, and 14% are unsure. In September, 63% had this impression of de Blasio while 20% said Lhota could make New York City more affordable. 17% were unsure.
When it comes to improving the city’s public schools, about two-thirds of registered voters — 65% — say de Blasio is the better candidate for the job. This compares with 19% who think Lhota is better able to improve education in the city. 16% are unsure. There has been little change on this question. Last month, 65% reported de Blasio was the candidate with the skills to improve education while 18% had this view of Lhota. 18%, at that time, were unsure.
63% of registered voters think de Blasio can better unite the city. This compares with 21% who think Lhota can bring New Yorkers together. 16% are unsure. In that previous Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll, 67% of voters considered de Blasio to be the candidate who could better unite the city. 19% thought Lhota was the candidate to do so, and 14% were unsure.
There has also been little change on whether de Blasio or Lhota has the experience to manage the city. 53% believe de Blasio is the more seasoned candidate while 29% think Lhota has the experience to take the city’s helm. 18% are unsure. Last month, a majority — 54% — reported de Blasio had the experience to be mayor compared with 31% who had this impression of Lhota. 15%, then, were unsure.
A majority of voters — 52% — say de Blasio is more likely to keep crime down while 31% say Lhota is more likely to do so. 17% are unsure. There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who say de Blasio will improve safety in the city. Last month, 44% said de Blasio was more likely to reduce crime. This compares with 35% who had this opinion of Lhota. 21%, at the time, were unsure.
When it comes to the candidate who is better able to handle the city’s finances, 49% think de Blasio is more capable. This compares with 33% who say Lhota has the advantage on this issue. 19% are unsure. In The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist’s previous survey, 45% thought de Blasio was the better candidate to deal with the city’s finances while 35% had this opinion of Lhota. 20% were unsure.

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Make the City More Affordable (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Improve the City’s Public Schools (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who will Better Unite the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who has the Experience to Manage the City (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is More Likely to Keep Crime Down (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: NYC Mayoral Candidate who is Better Able to Handle the City’s Finances (NYC Registered Voters)

The Ideologies of the Candidates

Among registered voters in New York City, 59% report de Blasio’s political ideology is in step. This compares with 24% who think he is too liberal and 3% who believe he is too conservative. 14% are unsure.

In September, 59% of registered voters said de Blasio’s ideology was about right. 22% reported he was too liberal while 5% thought he was too conservative. 14%, at the time, were unsure.

Among registered voters, 35% say Lhota’s political ideology is in line. 31% report he is too conservative, and 8% believe he is too liberal. 26% are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 32% of voters thought Lhota’s ideology was about right. 31% said he was too conservative while 7% reported he was too liberal. 29%, then, were unsure.

Table: Bill de Blasio’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Joe Lhota’s Ideology (NYC Registered Voters)

De Blasio’s Past Experiences in Cuba and Nicaragua Matter Little

Information surfaced that de Blasio went to Cuba on his honeymoon and supported the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. Has this knowledge impacted voters’ impressions of de Blasio? More than seven in ten registered voters — 72% — say it makes no difference to them. 16% report it makes them less likely to vote for de Blasio while 8% think it makes them more likely to vote for him. Four percent are unsure.

Table: Impact of de Blasio’s Time in Cuba and Nicaragua on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Voters Divide about Lhota and National GOP

On most issues, 40% of registered voters think Lhota is not independent from the national Republican Party. 36% believe he is independent from the GOP, and 24% are unsure where he stands on most issues.

Among those who believe Lhota’s stance on the issues is tied to the national Republican Party, 39% are less likely to support him, and 54% say it doesn’t matter. Looking at those who say Lhota is independent from the national GOP platform, 42% would be more likely to vote for him, and 51% say it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Impact of Lhota’s Ties to the National Republican Party on Vote (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing Does Little to Help Lhota’s Chances

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani stumped for Lhota during the primary, but his nod does not bolster Lhota’s chances in the general election. While 31% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to support Lhota, 47% report it makes them less likely to do so. 18% think it makes no difference to their vote, and 3% are unsure.

Last month, 29% reported Giuliani’s support made them more likely to vote for Lhota. A majority — 51% — said it made them less likely to vote for him, and 15% thought Giuliani’s endorsement made no difference to their vote. Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

A partisan divide exists. Most Republicans — 72% — say a Giuliani endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota while 8% report it makes them less inclined to support him. Among Democrats, 57% think Giuliani’s backing makes them less likely to cast their ballot for Lhota. 22% disagree and believe it will make them more likely to do so. There is little consensus among non-enrolled voters citywide. 35% say Giuliani’s endorsement makes them more likely to vote for Lhota, and 42% report it makes them less likely to vote for him. 20% believe it makes no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Rudy Giuliani’s Endorsement on Joe Lhota’s Electoral Chances (NYC Registered Voters)

Departure from Bloomberg Era Policies Desired… Bloomberg Rating Steady

About two-thirds of registered voters in New York City — 66% — want to move the city in a different direction from the Bloomberg years. 29%, however, want the next mayor to continue the policies of Mayor Bloomberg. Six percent are unsure.

When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question, 68% wanted the next mayor to move the city in a different direction while 25% wanted him to stay the course. Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.

When it comes to the job Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office, 45% give the mayor high marks. This includes 12% who say the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who report he is doing a good one. 34% rate his performance as fair while 18% think he is performing poorly. Two percent are unsure.

Last month, a similar 42% gave Bloomberg kudos. 33% gave him average grades while 22% thought he fell short. Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Continue Mayor Bloomberg’s Policies or Move City in Different Direction? (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

A City on Track?

When it comes to the direction of New York City, 46% of registered voters believe it is moving in the right direction, and 46% think it is traveling in the wrong one. Eight percent are unsure. When The Wall Street Journal/NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll last reported this question in September, voters also divided. 46% reported the city was on the right road, and 43% said it was on the wrong track. 11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Tags: Bill de Blasio, Bloomberg approval rating, Direction of NYC, Joe Lhota, Michael Bloomberg, New York City mayor

10/2: Economic Issues Top Priorities for Next Westchester County Executive… Taxes Number One

October 2, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

9/30: Tea Party Support at New Low

September 30, 2013 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics