10/5: Trump Edges Carson in Iowa, Stumbles in New Hampshire… Clinton Ahead in Iowa, Trails Sanders in New Hampshire
In the race for the Republican nomination for president, businessman Donald Trump has had a rough month in the key battleground states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Trump narrowly leads retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in Iowa and businesswoman Carly Fiorina in New Hampshire.
Among the Iowa potential Republican electorate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Trump, 24%, has a 5 point edge over Carson, 19%. In a similar poll conducted last month, Trump received 29% to 22% for Carson whose support has also inched down. Among the potential Republican electorate, support for both Trump and Carson has scattered among the other candidates in the GOP field.
In New Hampshire, Trump remains ahead, but the 16 point lead he had over his then closest opponent, Ohio Governor John Kasich, in September has eroded. Trump, 21%, down from 28% last month, is now narrowly ahead of Carly Fiorina, 16%, by 5 points among the state’s potential Republican electorate. While Fiorina has nearly tripled her support, Kasich’s backers have been cut in half. With 6% of the GOP vote, Kasich now ties for seventh. Of note, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush follows Fiorina with 11%, up slightly from 8%. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has risen to 10% from 3% last time, and Dr. Carson, 10%, is the only other candidate with double-digit support. Carson placed third in September with a similar level of support, 11%.
While Carson remains the preferred second choice candidate of the Iowa potential Republican electorate, he is no longer the overwhelming selection. Carson, 17%, now vies with Trump, 14%, and Fiorina, 13%, for that distinction. Fiorina, 18%, and Carson, 15%, are the most mentioned second choice candidates in New Hampshire.
Looking at the Democratic contest in Iowa, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 47%, leads Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 36%, and maintains the 11 point advantage she had in September. However, with Vice President Joe Biden in the race, Clinton’s lead declines to just 5 points, leading Sanders 33% to 28% with 22% for Biden in the state.
In New Hampshire, Sanders maintains his advantage over Clinton. He receives 48% of the potential Democratic vote to 39% for Clinton. Sanders’ 9 point lead is similar to the 11 point advantage he had in September. With Biden in the contest, Sanders widens his lead over Clinton to 14 points. In September, Sanders had a 9 point lead with Joe Biden in the contest.
“The GOP debates changed the playing field with Trump losing ground in both states” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Soon, it will be the Democrats turn at bat.”
- In Iowa, Trump has lost ground mostly among Tea Party supporters, white Evangelical Christians, independent voters, and conservatives.
- In New Hampshire, Trump’s support has eroded among most demographic groups but particularly among moderates, independents, and Tea Party supporters.
- Fiorina has been the main beneficiary of Trump’s decline in New Hampshire although Rubio has also improved his standing to 10% from 3% last time. Kasich’s support is halved to 6% from 12% in the previous poll.
- Clinton’s, 47%, lead over Sanders, 36%, in Iowa is unchanged. Last time, she also led by 11 points, 48% to 37% for Sanders.
- Sanders’ lead over Clinton, 48% to 39%, in New Hampshire is little changed. A month ago, his lead was 11 points, 49% to 38% for Clinton.
- If Vice President Joe Biden enters the race for the Democratic nomination, he receives the support of 22% of the potential Democratic electorate in Iowa and 18% in New Hampshire. In both states, he is in third place but draws more support away from Clinton than Sanders.
Trump’s Favorable Ratings Decline… Clinton with Positive Boost
In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump’s favorability has decreased among the potential Republican electorate. Although a majority in Iowa still has a positive view of Trump, his positive score has dipped by 6 points. Trump’s negative rating has increased by 9 points to 42%, the highest of the GOP candidates measured.
In New Hampshire, Trump had a positive rating of 56% and a negative score of 39% among potential GOP voters last month. These voters now divide, 47% to 47%, in their opinion of him.
Looking at other prominent candidates in the Republican field, Carson, 77%, enjoys the highest favorable score in Iowa, followed by Fiorina with 57%, and Rubio at 54%. Bush, 49%, receives the lowest positive score but is still plus ten points over his negative rating of 39%.
In New Hampshire, Carson, 69%, and Fiorina and Rubio, both with 68%, are well-liked. Bush has improved his favorable rating to 58% from 49% in September’s survey.
Among the potential Democratic electorate in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton, Biden, and Sanders are all viewed favorably. Clinton has improved her standing with potential Democratic voters in both states. Impressions of Biden and Sanders are little changed in both states.
Sanders Outperforms Clinton against the GOP in General Election Tossups
Looking at hypothetical general election contests, Sanders is more competitive against Bush, Trump, and Fiorina than is Clinton. Also, noteworthy, Fiorina is at or breaks 50% against Clinton in both states. She is ahead of Clinton by double digits in Iowa and by 8 points in New Hampshire.
- When matched against Clinton, Bush leads Clinton, 50% to 40%, among registered voters in Iowa. He is also ahead of Clinton, 49% to 42%, among New Hampshire registered voters.
- Trump, 48%, has a 7 point lead against Clinton, 41%, in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Clinton, 48%, and Trump, 45%, are competitive. The two were locked in a virtual dead heat last month. At that time, Clinton received 46% to 45% for Trump.
- Fiorina, 52%, has a double-digit lead over Clinton, 38%, among Iowa registered voters, and Fiorina, 50%, is ahead of Clinton, 42%, by 8 points in New Hampshire.
- Bush, 46%, and Sanders, 44%, are closely matched in Iowa. In New Hampshire, the two candidates are tied. Each receives 46% of the vote.
- Against Trump, Sanders leads in both states. Sanders, 48%, is ahead of Trump, 43%, by 5 points in Iowa. In New Hampshire, Sanders, 52%, outdistances Trump, 42%, by 10 points.
- When matched against Fiorina, Sanders, 47%, and Fiorina, 45%, are competitive among New Hampshire voters. In Iowa, Fiorina receives 45% to 42% for Sanders.
Obama’s Approval Rating Upside Down in Iowa and New Hampshire
Majorities of adults in Iowa and New Hampshire disapprove of how President Barack Obama is doing his job.
- 38% of adults in Iowa approve of President Obama’s job performance, and 53% disapprove. The president received similar scores in September.
- 42% of New Hampshire residents approve of how he is doing his job while 51% disapprove. This is relatively unchanged from September.
Both white and African American residents nationally agree that race relations in the United States have deteriorated during the past year. But, the consensus ends there. This survey of Americans illustrates the contrast in opinions along racial lines about the opportunities available today for African Americans.
When looking at race relations close to home, most Americans think their local town or city, unlike the country, hasn’t changed much in the past year. But, white residents, by more than two to one, think that is a good thing whereas, by nearly two to one, African Americans view the status quo as a negative.
The opportunity to achieve a middle class life is at the core of the American Dream. But, race is a defining factor in whether or not Americans believe this is an attainable goal for African Americans. While a majority of whites, 52%, reports a middle class lifestyle is equally attainable regardless of race, six in ten African Americans, 60%, disagree, saying they have less opportunity.
A racial divide exists regarding perceptions of whether or not equal opportunity is available for whites and African Americans when it comes to education, housing, hiring practices, equal pay for equal work, and the availability to acquire credit. Although a wide disparity also exists between white residents and African Americans regarding fair treatment by police, the law, and the media, majorities of Americans, overall, believe inequality exists in these areas.
Non-white Americans are pessimistic about the future of race relations. Majorities of African Americans and Latinos think racial prejudice and discrimination will always exist in the United States. A slim majority of Americans believe having a president who is African American helps race relations in the country.
Nearly two-thirds of African Americans mostly agree with “Black Lives Matter.” They believe it is a movement not just a slogan, focuses attention on real issues of discrimination, and is a non-violent civil rights campaign. In contrast, 42% of whites are either unsure or do not have an opinion about “Black Lives Matter.” A plurality of whites thinks it is a movement, but nearly six in ten believe that it distracts attention from the real issues of discrimination, and they divide over whether it advocates violence or is a non-violent civil rights campaign.
When it comes to campaign 2016, Americans, regardless of race, believe too little attention is being paid to the economy. A majority of whites and a plurality of African Americans would like to see more discussion about foreign policy. But, a majority of African Americans believes too little attention has been paid to race relations in the presidential campaign so far. In contrast, a plurality of Latinos think there has been too much discussion about immigration. Overall, a plurality of Americans think having a Democrat as president will improve race relations in the country.
The confederate flag is a racially polarizing symbol. A majority of white residents, 58%, characterize it as a source of southern pride compared with 67% of African Americans who describe it as a symbol of racism. Nationally, Americans divide over whether the Civil War was fought to abolish slavery or to defend states’ rights. A majority of African Americans believe slavery was the main reason for the war. Whites divide.
Where do Americans stand on gun control? Regardless of race, majorities of Americans favor federal laws which require registering guns, regardless of where the guns were purchased.
- 58% of Americans, including 60% of whites and 56% of African Americans, say race relations in the United States have worsened in the last year. While 30% of residents nationally perceive race relations to have stayed the same, 20% of Americans with this view believe that lack of change is a bad thing.
- African Americans, 60%, are less likely than whites, 74%, to say race relations locally have not changed. But, 37% of African Americans describe the lack of change as a negative whereas 48% of white residents describe the status quo as positive.
- 51% of Americans think African Americans have the same opportunity as whites to achieve a middle class lifestyle. 38% believe African Americans have less of an opportunity to do so, and 10% report African Americans have more of an opportunity to become middle class. A majority of whites, 52%, believe African Americans have the same chance to be middle class while 60% of African Americans think they have fewer opportunities to achieve middle class status.
- Views about the specific opportunities available to whites and African Americans also widely differ based on race.
- A majority of non-whites, 54%, are pessimistic about ending racial prejudice and discrimination in the future. 43% say there is hope of doing so in the long run.
- 51% of U.S. residents, including 61% of African Americans, 54% of Latinos, and a plurality of whites, 47%, say having a president who is African American helps race relations in the United States.
- When compared with another movement in the United States, Americans are more than two times as likely to agree with “Black Lives Matter,” 34%, than the Tea Party, 16%. African Americans are much more likely to agree with “Black Lives Matter,” 65%, than the Tea Party, 4%. 31% of white residents agree with “Black Lives Matter,” 27% disagree, and 42% do not offer an opinion or are unsure. This compares with 20% of whites who agree with the Tea Party.
- 48% of Americans, including 67% of African Americans, say “Black Lives Matter” is mostly a movement. 39% of adults nationally describe it mostly as a slogan. Among whites, 46% call “Black Lives Matter” a movement while 40% say it is a slogan.
- 55% of Americans, including 59% of whites, say “Black Lives Matter” distracts attention from the real issues of racial discrimination. Nearly two-thirds of African Americans, 65%, disagree and believe it focuses attention on the real issues of discrimination.
- 50% of U.S. residents, including 82% of African Americans, perceive “Black Lives Matter” mainly as a non-violent movement. 35% of Americans, though, think it advocates violence to make its point. Among white residents, 43% consider “Black Lives Matter” to be a non-violent civil rights campaign while 41% say it advocates violence.
- 64% of Americans, including 73% of African Americans and 63% of whites, say too little attention has been given to the economy in the presidential campaign.
- 52% of adults nationally, including 55% of whites and 45% of African Americans, report too little attention has been given to foreign policy in the presidential contest.
- Americans divide about whether or not the right amount of attention has been given to the issues of race relations and immigration. However, 56% of African Americans believe too little attention has been given to race relations in the presidential campaign, and 42% of Latinos believe there has been too much attention on immigration.
- 46% of Americans think a Democrat would be better to have as president on the issue of race relations, including 74% of African Americans and 59% of Latinos. 28% of Americans believe a Republican president would do a better job. A notable 26% are unsure.
- 52% of Americans, including 58% of whites, think the confederate flag is a symbol of southern pride. 38%, including 67% of African Americans, see it as a symbol of racism.
- When it comes to the underlying cause of the Civil War, 43% of Americans say states’ rights was the reason for the war, and 42% believe slavery was the source. A majority of African Americans, 54%, cites slavery. Among whites, 44% think states’ rights caused the conflict while 41% believe slavery was the basis for the war.
- 61% of Americans, including 73% of African Americans, 61% of whites, and 57% of Latinos support federal laws which require all people to register guns, regardless of where they were purchased.
Pope Francis will arrive in the United States tomorrow, following his trip to Cuba. So, what do Americans think of the Holy Father? And, what are their attitudes toward the United States’ relationship with Cuba?
A majority of Americans, 51%, including nearly half of Latinos, 49%, have a positive opinion of Pope Francis. But, the Pontiff is not viewed negatively by Americans. Rather, notable proportions of residents, including Latinos, do not have an opinion one way or the other, or do not know enough about Pope Francis to weigh in. During his visit, nearly half of Americans, including Latinos, would prefer Pope Francis speak about social issues and economic policy and not just about religion and faith.
Most American Catholics have a favorable impression of the Holy Father including more than eight in ten Catholics who practice their faith. In fact, a majority of practicing Catholics believe Pope Francis has made them feel closer to their faith.
When it comes to the United States’ relationship with Cuba, more than six in ten Americans, approve of opening up diplomatic relations with the country. This now includes more than two in three Latinos who share this view, an increase from a poll conducted earlier this year. Many residents and Latinos, alike, also support lifting the U.S. embargo against Cuba to permit travel to the nation. Latinos are more interested than Americans, as a whole, to want to personally travel to the country.
Poll Points: Perceptions of Pope Francis
- 51% of Americans, including 49% of Latinos, have a positive impression of Pope Francis. Less than one in ten Americans, 9%, and Latinos, 7%, has a negative impression of the Holy Father. More than one in five residents, 27%, including 28% of Latinos has neither a positive nor negative opinion of Pope Francis.
- 68% of Catholic Latinos have a favorable view of the Holy Father, including 75% of Catholic Latinos who practice their faith.
- 49% of Americans would like Pope Francis to address social and economic policy during his upcoming trip to the United States. 36% say he should focus entirely on religion and faith. The views of Latinos reflect those of the overall public. 48% of Latinos report Pope Francis should speak to social issues and economic policy while 38% say he should stick to religion and faith.
- A majority of Catholics, 51%, want Pope Francis to address more than just religion and their faith. Practicing Catholics divide. 47% would like the Pontiff to speak to broader issues, and 45% believe he should address only religion and faith.
- 45% of American Catholics report Pope Francis has made them feel closer to their faith, including 53% of practicing Catholics. Among Catholic Latinos, nearly half, 49%, say they have a stronger bond with their faith because of Pope Francis, including 57% of Catholic Latinos who practice their faith.
Poll Points: Diplomatic Relations with Cuba
- 62% of Americans, including 67% of Latinos, approve of providing diplomatic recognition of Cuba by the United States. While there has been little change among Americans, overall, on this question since April, more Latinos support this change in U.S. policy. In April, 56% of Latinos supported opening up diplomatic relations with Cuba.
- About two-thirds of adults nationally, 66%, including 70% of Latinos, think the U.S. embargo against Cuba should be lifted to allow for U.S. trade and tourism.
- Americans divide about whether or not they would like to travel to Cuba if the embargo were lifted. 49% say they would not really want to travel to the country while 48% would. Among Latinos, 64% report they would like to go to Cuba.
In hypothetical general election tossups, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her potential Republican rivals among registered voters nationally. Clinton does best against businessman Donald Trump, leading him by 13 points. Her closest competitor, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails Clinton by just four points. Among Latino voters, Clinton outpaces Trump by 47 points, Cruz by 33 points, and Rubio and Bush by 30 points. President Barack Obama carried the Latino vote in 2012 over Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 44 points.
If Vice President Joe Biden enters the contest and wins the Democratic Party’s nomination, he would also lead his possible Republican rivals. Biden does best against Trump, leading him by 18 points. His closest competition comes from Rubio and Bush who he leads by 8 points. Biden is the overwhelming favorite among Latino voters. He leads Trump by 51 points, Cruz by 30 points, and Bush by 27 points. He is ahead of Rubio by only 14 points.
When it comes to perceptions of the candidates, Latinos, 55%, are more likely than Americans, overall, 42%, to view Clinton positively. Latinos are also more likely to think that Clinton is helping the image of the Democratic Party. Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont suffers from low name recognition. And, much talk has centered around whether or not Vice President Joe Biden will enter the presidential contest. If he does, Americans’ perceptions of Biden are more positive than negative.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has the highest negatives, especially among Latinos. Americans are not satisfied with Trump’s impact on the image of the GOP party, are not overjoyed with the candidate’s comments, and are not sold on the idea that Trump is the type of leader the nation needs now.
Ben Carson has the highest positive rating among the presidential GOP contenders. With the exception of Jeb Bush, many of the other Republican candidates suffer from low name recognition, especially among Latinos.
When it comes to the issue most likely to impact Americans’ vote, jobs and economy are the determining factor for, both, the general population and Latinos. However, Latinos are more likely to cite immigration.
“Although the general election is a long way off, whether or not the GOP can connect with Latino voters is an important part of the 2016 narrative,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Bush, Cruz, and Rubio narrow the GOP’s margin among these voters from 2012 when matched against either Clinton or Biden. Trump, who is not well liked among many Latinos, widens it.”
General Election Prospects
- Clinton leads Trump, 53% to 40%, among registered voters nationally. Among Latino voters, Clinton has 69% to 22% for Trump.
- Clinton is ahead of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 52% to 41%, among registered voters. Clinton leads Cruz, 62% to 29%, among the Latino electorate.
- Against Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Clinton’s lead narrows to 6 points nationally. She receives the support of 50% of registered voters to 44% for Rubio. Among Latino voters, Clinton has a 30 point lead against Rubio, 61% to 31%.
- Bush is the most competitive Republican against Clinton. Clinton edges Bush, 49% to 45%, among registered voters nationwide. However, Clinton leads Bush by two-to-one, 60% to 30%, among the Latino electorate.
- Biden has an even wider lead over Trump, 56% to 38%, among registered voters. Biden is ahead of Trump by 51 points, 71% to 20%, among Latino voters.
- Against Cruz, Biden has a 15 point advantage, 54% to 39%, among the national electorate. Among Latino voters, Biden outpaces Cruz, 57% to 27%.
- Biden has an eight point lead against Rubio, 50% to 42%. Biden has only a 14 point lead against Rubio, 50% to 36%, among Latino voters.
- Biden is also ahead of Bush by 8 points. Biden garners the support of 50% of the national electorate compared with 42% for Bush. Among Latino voters, Biden has a 27 point advantage, 57% to 30%, against Bush.
Perceptions of the Candidates
How do Americans and Latinos view the key players in the presidential contest?
Looking at the Democratic side, Latinos, 55%, are more likely than Americans, overall, 42%, to have a positive opinion of Hillary Clinton. Latinos are also more likely than the general population to perceive Clinton as helping the image of the Democratic Party.
Bernie Sanders is not a household name for a notable proportion of Americans, 34%. This includes 52% of Latinos who do not offer an opinion about him. And, when it comes to Joe Biden, he is viewed more positively than negatively.
Donald Trump has the highest negatives among Americans, 55%, and especially Latinos, 70%, of any of the public figures measured. And, while Trump’s demeanor is not overwhelmingly viewed favorably by Americans, overall, Latinos are more likely to frown upon Trump’s impact on the Republican brand and his manner. Latinos are also more inclined than Americans, overall, to say Trump is not the kind of leader the nation needs now.
With the exception of Jeb Bush, many of the other Republican candidates suffer from low name recognition, especially among Latinos. However, Bush receives mixed reviews. He generates neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative feelings among Americans or Latinos.
Clinton and Biden are well received among voters who identify as Democrats nationwide. Sanders is also favorably viewed by the party’s rank and file but is less well known to a national Democratic audience.
All of the Republican candidates for the presidential nomination measured in this survey have a higher positive than negative score among voters who consider themselves Republican. Ben Carson has the highest positive rating among the presidential GOP contenders. A majority of Republicans also have a positive impression of Rubio and Trump. Trump and Bush have higher negatives than the other Republican candidates. Scott Walker is the least well known of the field.
42% of Americans describe Clinton as having a negative impact on the image of the Democratic Party. Only 28% believe she is having a positive one. In contrast, a plurality of Latinos, 47%, thinks she is helping the party’s brand while just 19% say she is hurting it.
A majority of Americans, 52%, including 65% of Latinos, reports Trump is hurting the image of the Republican Party. 28% of Americans and only 13% of Latinos believe the Republican Party is benefitting from his candidacy. When it comes to Trump’s manner of speaking, Americans divide with 49% describing his comments as insulting and offensive and 45% saying he is telling it like it is. However, Latinos, 70%, overwhelmingly consider Trump’s comments to be offensive and insulting with just 26% saying his comments are on target. A majority of Americans, 53%, believe Trump is not the kind of leader the country needs now. This includes 69% of Latinos who have this view.
Prioritizing the Issues
Americans, 32%, including 31% of Latinos, cite jobs and the economy as the most important issue in determining their vote. Latinos, 24%, are more likely than Americans, 11%, overall, to place an emphasis on immigration as a central campaign issue.
- Registered voters nationally, 35%, and an identical share of Latino voters, consider jobs and the economy to be the most important factor in determining their vote for president. However, when looking at other key issues, immigration is of greater importance to Latino voters than American voters, overall. Among registered voters nationally, education, 14%, and health care, 12%, follow. Nine percent cite immigration while foreign policy, 7%, terrorism, 7%, and taxes, 6%, round out the list. For Latino voters, nearly one in five, 18%, mentions immigration followed closely by education at 16%.
Ready for a Woman or a Latino President?
Most Americans and Latinos think that the nation will be ready for a Latino or a woman president, if not now, than in the future.
- A majority of Americans, 56%, thinks the United States is ready for a Latino president, and an additional 29% believe the nation will be ready to embrace a Latino president in the future. Interestingly, Latinos, 49%, are slightly less likely to believe the nation is ready for a Latino president. Four in ten, 40%, however, do think the United States will embrace a Latino president in the future.
- About seven in ten Americans, 69%, including 63% of Latinos, believe the country is ready for a woman president. An additional 21% of U.S. residents and 27% of Latinos think that the nation will be ready for a woman president in the future, but not now.
Immigration reform and race relations continue to be hot-button issues in the headlines and for the 2016 presidential campaign. When it comes to U.S. immigration policy, many Americans, including more than eight in ten Latinos, think that birthright should remain in place so that children born in this country receive U.S. citizenship, regardless of whether or not their parents are undocumented immigrants. Americans divide about whether or not the term “anchor baby” is offensive. And, a plurality of residents say undocumented immigrants should be deported which would eliminate the need for so-called “sanctuary cities.” Not surprisingly, a majority of Latinos consider the description “anchor baby” to be insulting, and about two-thirds support maintaining “sanctuary cities.”
On the issue of police-community relations, nearly two-thirds of Americans say minorities are treated the same as anyone else. However, one in four U.S. residents, including 31% of Latinos, believe authorities treat minorities more harshly.
What do Americans and Latinos think of the Black Lives Matter movement? When compared with another movement in the United States, the Tea Party, more Americans view “Black Lives Matter” positively. 37% of Americans have a positive impression of “Black Lives Matter” compared with one in four Americans who says the Tea Party conjures up positive feelings for them.
U.S. Immigration Policy
- More than six in ten adults nationally, 62%, report birthright should be continued in the United States. 31% disagree and say the U.S. Constitution should be amended so that children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship. Most Latinos, 83%, say birthright should be continued.
- 48% of Americans deem the term “anchor baby” to be offensive while 44% say the phrase is an accurate description of a child born to a pregnant woman who illegally crosses the U.S.-Mexico border. A majority of Latinos, 56%, believe the term is offensive.
- 48% of residents nationally believe undocumented immigrants should be deported which would eliminate the need for “sanctuary cities.” 43%, though, think these cities are necessary to provide undocumented immigrants with services. 66% of Latinos report “sanctuary cities” should remain.
Police-Community Relations in the United States
- 64% of Americans, including 58% of Latinos, say police in their communities treat minorities the same as anyone else. 25% of residents, including 31% of Latinos, think minorities are dealt with more forcefully. Only 4% of Americans, including 6% of Latinos, report minorities are treated less harshly by authorities.
- 37% of Americans, including 32% of Latinos, have a positive association with the Black Lives Matter movement. 25% of residents and 12% of Latinos have a negative association with it. 38% of Latinos are unfamiliar with “Black Lives Matter.”
- 25% of Americans view the Tea Party positively. 19% of Latinos agree. However, 36% of residents, overall, including 18% of Latinos, have a negative association with the Tea Party movement. 34% of Latinos are unaware of the Tea Party.
9/6: Trump Clear GOP Leader, as Bush and Walker Plummet in Iowa and New Hampshire; Clinton Stumbles, and Sanders Emerges in Democratic Contest
In the 2016 race for the White House, businessman Donald Trump leads his Republican rivals in the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Trump has improved his standing among potential Republican voters in both crucial GOP contests. In Iowa, Trump, 29%, leads the crowded GOP field, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 22%, assumes second place. Dr. Carson is the favorite “second choice” among potential GOP voters. Trump, 28%, also takes the top spot in New Hampshire where he outpaces Ohio Governor John Kasich, 12%, and Dr. Carson, 11%, by double digits among the state’s potential Republican electorate. Carson is also the preferred “second choice” in New Hampshire.
However, the picture is bleaker for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Walker, who topped the Iowa leaderboard in the July NBC News/Marist Poll with 19%, now receives only single-digit support, 5%, as does Bush, 6%, who placed third in that previous survey with 12%. In New Hampshire, support for Bush and Walker has also fallen among the potential GOP electorate.
On the Democratic side, the race for the presidential nomination has undergone a major upheaval. While former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sanders by 11 points, 48% to 37%, among the potential Democratic electorate in Iowa, Clinton’s lead has narrowed from 29 points in July. The tables have turned for Clinton in New Hampshire where Sanders has surpassed her, 49% to 38%. Clinton previously had a 13 point lead over Sanders.
What would happen if Vice President Joe Biden decides to enter the race? Clinton and Sanders maintain their respective leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden places third. However, in Iowa, Biden has doubled his support, 20% from 10%, since the previous NBC News/Marist Poll in the state. His support is also up to 16% from 12% in New Hampshire.
And, looking at the general election, Clinton now loses to Bush in both states, trails Trump in Iowa, and runs evenly with him in New Hampshire. In contrast, Vice President Joe Biden is more competitive against Bush and leads Trump in both states.
“There’s been a massive shakeup in both parties, in both states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It’s been a summer of surprises with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders sitting in the front car of the rollercoaster.”
- Trump is outpacing his competitors for the Republican nomination across the board. He runs best among Tea Party identifiers, independents, voters without a college education, and men.
- Carson has made major inroads in Iowa. He has catapulted to second place and runs competitively with Trump among white evangelical Christians and conservative voters. He leads Trump in Iowa, 27% to 22%, among college educated voters. In New Hampshire, Carson and Kasich have nearly doubled their support from the previous July survey.
- Bush and Walker have seen their support in each state fade. Bush is down to single digits, overall, and among most key groups in each state. Walker’s support has collapsed in both states. In Iowa, his support dropped from 19% in July to 5% now, and from 12% to 4% in New Hampshire.
- Clinton now trails Sanders in New Hampshire, 38% to 49%. Although Clinton still carries Democrats and women by 7 points, Sanders leads by 36 points among independents, 32 points among men and people under 45, and 15 points among liberals. In Iowa, Clinton’s lead has narrowed from 29 points in July to 11 points currently. Although the slippage has been modest among Democrats, her support among independents and moderates has plummeted.
- Among women, while Clinton outpaced Sanders by 25 points in New Hampshire in July, she now only has a 7 point edge. Her lead among women voters in Iowa has narrowed from 47 points to 23.
Trump and Sanders Receive Boost in Favorable Ratings
Majorities of potential Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have a positive impression of Trump, a dramatic shift from July. While potential GOP voters also perceive Bush and Walker positively, Bush’s negatives are up in New Hampshire, and Walker’s negatives are on the rise in Iowa.
Looking at the Democratic candidates vying for their party’s nomination, they are viewed positively by the potential Democratic electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire. However, Sanders’ positive ratings have improved. And, while Clinton is still well-received in Iowa, she has experienced a decline in her favorable rating.
“It’s less the case that Clinton, Bush, and Walker’s negative ratings have skyrocketed than Sanders and Trump have struck a chord with voters,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “As a result, they score much better on the ballot question.”
- In Iowa, 58% of the Iowa potential Republican electorate has a favorable view of Trump. In July, potential GOP voters were divided in their opinion of him, 45% positive and 44% negative. In New Hampshire, impressions of Trump have gone from upside down in July, 39% positive and 53% negative, to 56% favorable and 39% unfavorable among potential GOP voters.
- Although Walker’s support on the ballot question has considerably declined, a majority of potential Republican voters in Iowa, 52%, still have a positive opinion of him. His negative score though has inched up to 17% from 10% in the state. Voters’ impressions of him are little changed in New Hampshire.
- Bush has also seen only a modest change in how voters view him. 49% of potential Republican voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire now have a favorable opinion of him. This compares with 51% in Iowa and 56% in New Hampshire just two months ago.
- On the Democratic side, Biden is favorably viewed by 74% of potential Democratic voters in Iowa. This compares with 67% who have this impression of Clinton, and 65% who share this view of Sanders. Clinton’s positive score has declined from 74% while Sanders favorable rating has increased from 54%.
- Sanders, 79%, up from 65% in July, receives the highest favorable rating among the potential Democratic electorate in New Hampshire. Biden, 76%, and Clinton, 69%, are also viewed positively in the Granite State.
Biden Runs Better than Clinton against GOP Rivals in Potential General Election Tosses
When paired against Bush or Trump in hypothetical general election matchups, Biden is more competitive against the Republicans than is Clinton.
- When matched against Hillary Clinton, Bush leads Clinton among registered voters in, both, Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, Bush, 50%, leads Clinton, 39%, by 11 points. He edges Clinton, 48% to 43%, in New Hampshire.
- In Iowa, Trump, 48%, is ahead of Clinton, 43%, by 5 points among the statewide electorate. However, the two are competitive, 46% for Clinton and 45% for Trump, among registered voters in New Hampshire.
- Biden is more competitive than Clinton against Bush in Iowa and New Hampshire. Bush receives 46% to 44% for Biden among Iowa registered voters. In New Hampshire, Bush has 46% to 45% for Biden.
- Against Trump, Biden is ahead in both states. Among Iowa’s registered voters, Biden has the support of 49% to 45% for Trump. In New Hampshire, Biden garners 50% to 41% for Trump.
On the Issues
The potential Democratic and Republican electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire express opposite views on how a candidate’s position on certain issues may impact their vote.
- When it comes to amending the U.S. Constitution to change birthright so children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship, pluralities of potential Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire would be more likely to back a candidate who supports such a position.
- Majorities of the potential GOP electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire would be less likely to support a candidate who favors a pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal immigrants. And, a plurality in Iowa and nearly half of those in New Hampshire would be less likely to support a candidate who is for Common Core education.
- At least a majority of the potential Democratic electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. And, a majority of potential Democratic voters in Iowa and nearly half of those in New Hampshire would be more likely to support a candidate who favors Common Core education standards.
- The potential Democratic electorates in Iowa, 59%, and New Hampshire, 66%, would be less likely to back a candidate who supports amending the U.S. Constitution to change birthright so children of undocumented immigrants are not automatically granted citizenship.
U.S. Senate Race in New Hampshire Competitive
Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan are in a close contest in the race for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.
- Ayotte, 48%, and Hassan, 45%, are in a virtual dead heat among registered voters in New Hampshire. Hassan has gained ground on Ayotte. In July’s survey, Ayotte was ahead of Hassan, 50% to 42%.
Obama Approval Rating Upside Down in Iowa and New Hampshire
Majorities of adults in Iowa and New Hampshire disapprove of how President Barack Obama is doing his job in office. Iowa Governor Terry Branstad and New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan receive high marks from residents in their respective states although Governor Hassan’s rating has declined since an earlier poll in July.
- 52% of Iowa adults disapprove of how President Obama is performing in office while 40% approve. The president’s job approval rating remains upside down in the state. In July, 49% thought Mr. Obama’s job performance was lacking while 43% thought well of how he was doing in office.
- In New Hampshire, 42% approve of the president’s job performance while 52% do not. The president received nearly identical scores in July.
- 54% of Iowa residents approve of how Governor Branstad is performing in office. 50% held this view earlier in the summer.
- 50% of adults in New Hampshire, down from 56% in July, approve of how Maggie Hassan is doing her job.
Registered voters nationally divide about their overall assessment of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office. However, the president actually receives his highest approval rating, 47%, since April of 2013. At that time, just half of the electorate, 50%, approved of how Obama was doing in office. President Obama’s negative rating has also inched down.
On the specifics, Mr. Obama’s approval ratings on the economy, foreign policy, and his handling of ISIS remain upside down. What does this all mean for President Obama’s legacy? Mr. Obama receives mixed reviews.
Turning to the job performances of the Republicans and Democrats in Congress, fewer than one in five registered voters nationally, 19%, approves of how the Republicans in Congress are doing their job. This is the lowest job approval rating the congressional GOP has received since the McClatchy-Marist Poll has been tracking this question, and it is a drop from 33% measured in the last McClatchy-Marist Poll in March. The decreased level of satisfaction is due, in large part, to Republicans. There has been a 24 point drop in the proportion of the GOP faithful who approve of how the congressional Republicans are doing their job.
While the Democrats in Congress fare better, their job approval rating is nothing to write home about. Only 28% of voters give them high marks, little changed from their previous approval rating of 30% measured in March.
Taking a closer look at the nation’s involvement in the fight against ISIS, a majority of Americans support putting boots on the ground in Iraq and Syria to combat the Islamic State. And on the question of sending ground troops to engage in the fight, 59% of residents, down from 65% in March, favor sending, at least, some ground troops.
And, do Americans want to increase the minimum wage? The consensus is that a raise is warranted?
But, Americans’ attitudes about President Obama, Congress, the fight against ISIS, and pay rates play out against a backdrop of persistent dissatisfaction with the direction of the nation.
Measuring Americans Attitudes about President Barack Obama
- President Obama’s, overall, approval rating is at 47% among registered voters, the highest score the president has received in more than two years. The same proportion, 47%, disapproves. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in March, the president’s approval rating was upside down, 46% to 50% (Trend).
- 47% of voters have a favorable impression of President Obama while 48% have an unfavorable one. Earlier this year, a majority, 52%, had a negative view of the president (Trend).
- 50% of voters nationally disapprove of how President Obama is handling the economy while 45% approve. In March, the same proportions of voters had these views (Trend).
- A majority of voters, 54%, little changed from March, disapprove of how President Obama is handling foreign policy (Trend).
- A majority of voters, 54%, are also dissatisfied with how the president is dealing with ISIS. This is little changed from March when 56% had this opinion.
- When it comes to President Obama’s legacy, many Americans do not think his legacy will be overly positive. While 32% of Americans believe Mr. Obama will be considered either one of the best presidents, 10%, or an above average one, 22%, 28% say he will be thought of as “about average.” Nearly four in ten residents, 38%, report his presidency will be either below average, 17%, or will be remembered as one of the nation’s worst, 21%.
Views of the GOP in Congress Hit Rock Bottom
The job approval rating of the Republicans in Congress is at an all-time low. In fact, nearly seven in ten registered voters nationally disapprove of how they are doing their job. The Democrats in Congress do not receive positive marks either, but they are rated higher than their Republican counterparts.
- Less than one in five voters, 19%, approves of how the Republicans in Congress are doing their job. 68% disapprove. When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in March, 33% thought well of them (Trend). The congressional GOP has lost favor in the eyes of its own party. 36% of Republicans, down from 60% earlier this year, rate the job performance of the Republicans in Congress positively. There has also been a drop in their approval rating among independents from 28% in March to 19% now.
- 28% of voters, little changed from 30% previously, approve of the job performance of the Democrats in Congress (Trend).
Majority of Americans Supports Increased U.S. Involvement in the Fight against ISIS
51% of Americans favor sending more U.S. troops to Iraq and Syria to combat ISIS. Nearly six in ten support the inclusion of at least some ground troops in the fight.
- A majority of U.S. residents, 51%, either strongly favor, 15%, or favor, 36%, sending more U.S. troops to Iraq and Syria to combat ISIS.
- 59% of Americans, down from 65% in March, support sending ground forces to combat ISIS. This includes 24% who favor deploying a large number of ground forces and 35% who support a limited deployment of ground troops.
Increase the Minimum Wage?
Close to seven in ten Americans, 68%, either strongly favor, 30%, or favor, 38%, raising the minimum wage.
- Most Democrats, 92%, and nearly two-thirds of independents, 65%, favor increasing the minimum wage. Even 37% of Republicans agree.
Cloud of Pessimism Shrouds the Direction of the Country
Many Americans continue to have a downbeat attitude about the direction of the nation.
- 60% of residents nationally think the nation is moving in the wrong direction. A similar proportion, 59%, had this view in March (Trend).
Americans divide about whether or not the confederate flag should be removed from government buildings. While 49% favor such a measure, 43% oppose it.
When looking at Americans’ perceptions of the Civil War, a majority, 53%, believes slavery was the main reason for the conflict. Regional differences exist with those in the South dividing about whether or not slavery was at the center of the Civil War.
Should schools teach that slavery was the driving force of the Civil War? A majority of Americans believes that children should be taught this lesson in the classroom.
More than 150 years after the start of the Civil War, a plurality of Americans, 44%, thinks race relations in the United States are getting worse, and fewer than one in five, 18%, says they are improving.
Confederate Flag Controversy
The court of public opinion is still out on whether or not the confederate flag should be removed from government buildings. Racial and partisan differences exist.
- 49% of residents either strongly favor, 23%, or favor, 26%, taking down the confederate flag from government buildings. 43% either oppose, 27%, or strongly oppose, 16%, removing the flag.
- Democrats, 69%, and independents, 52%, are more likely than Republicans, 38%, to support removing the flag from official buildings.
The Impetus of the Civil War
Majorities of Americans think slavery was the main reason for the Civil War and assert that schoolchildren should be taught that lesson.
- 53% of residents say slavery led the nation into civil war. 41% disagree.
- While 62% of Democrats and 53% of independents cite slavery as the main reason for the Civil War, Republicans divide.
- Regional differences exist. At least half of residents in the Northeast, 50%, Midwest, 56%, and West, 67%, say slavery caused the Civil War. However, Southerners divide. 49% report it was not the main reason for the conflict. 45% say slavery was at the heart of the Civil War.
- A majority of Americans, 55%, say schools should teach children that slavery was the main reason for the Civil War.
- Democrats, 62%, and independents, 52%, are more likely than the GOP to want students to learn that the Civil War began, mainly, because of slavery. Members of the GOP divide.
- At least a majority of residents in the West, 66%, Northeast, 55%, and Midwest, 54%, believe schools’ curricula should include that slavery spurred the Civil War. Southerners divide with 49% saying it should be instructed and 45% reporting it should not.
Plurality of Americans Say Race Relations in the U.S. are Getting Worse
More than four in ten Americans, 44%, think race relations in the United States are deteriorating while only 18% believe they are getting better. 37% say race relations are status quo.
- More than six in ten Republicans, 61%, and a plurality of independents, 47%, say racial strife is on the rise. A plurality of Democrats, 41%, thinks race relations are the same as they have been. About one-third, 34%, believe racial tensions are worsening.
More than one in four Americans, 27%, reports that, when the U.S. Treasury Department unveils its redesigned ten dollar bill, Eleanor Roosevelt should be the woman featured. Harriet Tubman is the second most popular choice with 17% followed by Sacagawea with 13%. Susan B. Anthony and Amelia Earhart each receives 11%, and Sandra Day O’Connor garners 4%.
About one in three women, 33%, selects Mrs. Roosevelt. Harriet Tubman comes in a distant second among this group with 18%. By more than two-to-one, Harriet Tubman, 47%, is the leading choice of African Americans. Here, Eleanor Roosevelt receives 19%.
While a majority of Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally, 51%, considers businessman Donald Trump to be a distraction from the presidential primary process, two key groups within the GOP maintain a different view. At least a majority of those who identify as “strong” Republicans or are Tea Party supporters say Trump is a serious presidential candidate.
These voters also differ in their impressions of Trump. Unlike some of the other well-known candidates in the GOP field, Trump’s favorable rating among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, overall, is upside down. But, half of “strong” Republicans, 50%, and more than six in ten Tea Party supporters, 62%, have a positive impression of Trump.
And, when it comes to the GOP debates, many Republicans and Republican leaning independents assert all candidates seeking their party’s nomination should be allowed to participate. Only about one in three says the candidates’ rankings in national polls should determine eligibility.
What do Republicans and Republican leaning independents want in their nominee? Many favor a candidate who stands on conservative principles, and a plurality say they would definitely vote for a candidate who supports sending U.S. combat troops to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS. More than one in three say that, although they have reservations, they would back a candidate who supports raising the minimum wage. However, pluralities of Republicans and Republican leaning independents would definitely not vote for someone who favors a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, supports gay marriage, or backs the removal of the confederate flag from government buildings.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is well-liked among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents while Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont is unknown to half of these voters. When it comes to what Democrats consider important in their party’s nominee, they divide about whether the priority should be nominating someone who will continue the policies of President Barack Obama or who will move the nation in a different direction.
“Donald Trump has been the political story for the summer and don’t expect him to disappear from the campaign stage anytime soon,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “While many see him as a distraction, party activists including strong Republicans and Tea Party identifiers view his candidacy seriously.”
Trump Commands Respect among Strong GOPers
- 51% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents say Trump is a distraction from the presidential primary process. 44% describe him as a serious presidential candidate.
- But, a majority of those who consider themselves to be “strong” Republicans, 52%, and 61% of Tea Party identifiers think Trump is a serious presidential contender.
Impressions of the GOP Candidates
Among the better-known Republican candidates, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are well-liked among Republicans and Republican leaning independents. However, Trump, along with Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie have upside down ratings.
More than Six in Ten want Inclusive GOP Debates
62% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents want all the candidates seeking the GOP nomination to be allowed to participate in the Republican debates. About one in three, 34%, says participation should be determined by a candidate’s ranking in national polls.
GOP Favors Nominee who Stands on Republican Principles
More than six in ten Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 62%, believe it is more important for their party’s nominee to be someone who stands for conservative values. 35% say the priority is a candidate who can win the presidency.
Looking at some of the issues which impact the Republican vote, a plurality of Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 45%, say they would definitely vote for a candidate who supports sending U.S. combat troops to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS. However, pluralities of GOP voters report they definitely would not vote for a candidate who supports new immigration policies, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, 37%, is in favor of gay marriage, 37%, or supports the removal of the confederate flag from government buildings, 35%. When it comes to raising the minimum wage, a plurality, 36%, says they would have reservations but would vote for a candidate who favors such legislation.
More than Seven in Ten View Clinton Positively
On the Democratic side, with a favorable rating of 72%, Hillary Clinton is well-liked among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents. These voters also have a more positive than negative view of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 34% to 16%. However, half of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, 50%, have either never heard of Senator Sanders or are unsure how to rate him.
When it comes to their party’s nominee, Democrats and Democratic leaning independents divide about whether they think it is more important to have a candidate who will continue President Barack Obama’s policies, 45%, or nominate someone who will move the nation in a new direction, 46%.