11/20: Governor Cuomo…Take Two?

If New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is seriously considering a bid for New York governor, there may be one less obstacle in his path.  According to published reports, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has decided he will not run for the office, removing Cuomo’s most formidable opponent on his way to the statehouse.  Cuomo has huge leads over fellow Democrat David Paterson for his party’s nomination and Rick Lazio, the only announced Republican candidate.

“Right now, Andrew Cuomo has a clear path to become governor,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Poll. “If he could fast-forward to next November, I’m sure he would.”

Click Here for Complete November 20, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

For months, there has been speculation that Cuomo will challenge Governor David Paterson for the Democratic nomination.

Among Democrats statewide, 72% report they would support Cuomo if the Democratic primary were held today while just 21% say they would vote for Paterson. Little has changed since Marist last asked about a potential Paterson-Cuomo primary face-off in mid-September.

It’s not just the Democrats who want to oust Paterson.  Voters statewide also want a change.  63% of registered New York State voters do not want Paterson to run for governor.  Three in ten, on the other hand, would like to see him seek election.  When Marist last asked this question in its September 24th survey, 63% wanted Paterson to drop out, and 25% wanted him to remain in the contest.

And, although Governor Paterson has launched a media campaign to change his electoral prospects, the television ads have done little to alter the race.  Overall, a majority of voters statewide — 56% — say they’ve seen at least one television ad for Paterson.  But, viewing the ad does not change how voters feel about Paterson’s political future.  65% of voters who say they have watched a Paterson campaign ad say Paterson should not run for governor.  This proportion closely reflects the overall proportion of registered voters who, regardless of whether they have seen an ad or not, do not want the governor to be in the race.

Table: Democratic Primary — Paterson/Cuomo
Table: Should Paterson Run for Governor in 2010
Table: Seen Paterson Campaign Ad

Lazio Crushed by Cuomo…Competitive Against Paterson

Former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio has made no bones about the fact that he wants to be the Republican nominee for governor.  But, how does he stack up against his possible, Democratic opponents?  If Andrew Cuomo were the Democratic nominee and the election were held today, Cuomo would defeat Lazio by an almost three-to-one margin.  Cuomo receives 69% of voters’ support to Lazio’s 24%.  When Lazio is pitted against Governor David Paterson, the race is more competitive.  In fact, voters divide.  44% of the electorate would back Paterson, and 44% would cast their ballot for Lazio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed in both of these hypothetical matchups since Marist last asked about about them in mid-September.

Table: Cuomo/Lazio 2010 Matchup
Table: Paterson/Lazio 2010 Matchup

Paterson and Cuomo: A Tale of Two Approval Ratings

When it comes to how voters view Paterson and Cuomo’s job performances, the two men fall on opposite ends of the spectrum.

66% of the state’s electorate thinks Cuomo is doing either an excellent or good job in office while just 6% say he is performing poorly.

Cuomo has consistently enjoyed kudos from New York’s electorate.  69% thought he was doing an above average job when Marist last tracked Cuomo’s approval rating in mid-September.  In Marist’s June survey, he received a similar proportion.

While Cuomo is the most popular statewide officeholder, Paterson is the most unpopular.  Just one-fifth of registered voters think Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  More than one-third — 35% — report he is performing poorly.  When Marist last asked about Governor Paterson’s approval rating in its September 24th survey, the governor hit an all-time low with 17% giving the governor high marks.  44%, at that time, ranked Paterson’s performance as poor.

Table: Cuomo Approval Rating
Table: Paterson Approval Rating

Marist Poll Methodology

11/19: Giuliani Out of Race for Governor…Would Be Formidable Candidate for U.S. Senate

Published reports out today have squelched the long-standing rumors that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will run for governor of New York State.

But, what if Giuliani makes a bid for the U.S. Senate?  Giuliani leads U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democrat appointed by Governor David Paterson to fill the vacant seat left by Hillary Clinton.  54% of registered voters statewide would vote for Giuliani compared with 40% who would support Gillibrand.  Even one-third of Democrats report they would back the Republican challenger, and Giuliani runs competitively against Gillibrand in overwhelmingly Democratic New York City.

Click Here for Complete November 19, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Gaining the nomination for U.S. Senate does not appear to pose a problem either.  By nearly a three to one margin, Giuliani would be the Republicans’ pick when matched up against former New York State Governor George Pataki.  If the Republican primary were held today, he would receive 71% of the vote to Pataki’s 24%.

“It’s good news for Andrew Cuomo and Rick Lazio but potentially a huge problem for Kirsten Gillibrand,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Poll, “If Giuliani were to capture the U.S. Senate seat from heavily Democratic New York State, it would return him to the national spotlight big time.”

Table: 2010 Gillibrand/Giuliani Matchup
Table: 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate

Opting Out of Gubernatorial Race…Good Decision?

Although Giuliani may have easily defeated Governor David Paterson, he would have faced stiff competition from New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.  According to the latest Marist Poll, among registered voters, Giuliani receives 60% to Paterson’s 35%.  Support for Giuliani has been rock solid in this hypothetical matchup.  When Marist last stacked Giuliani up against Paterson, the candidates received similar proportions of the electorate.

However, when up against New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a majority of voters – 53% — would back Democrat Cuomo to 43% for Giuliani.  These proportions are also unchanged from Marist’s September 16th survey.

Table: Paterson/Giuliani 2010 Matchup
Table: Cuomo/Giuliani

Rudy’s Exit Opens Door for Lazio

Giuliani’s decision has breathed new life into former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio’s campaign for the GOP nomination for governor.  Had Giuliani entered the contest, 84% of Republicans in New York State say they would have voted for him while only 13% report they would have cast their ballot for Lazio.  In Marist’s September 16th poll, similar proportions of the GOP thought this way.

Table: 2010 Republican Primary for Governor

Marist Poll Methodology

11/18: Voters Worried NYS Will Run Out of Money

Nearly seven in ten registered voters in New York State fear the Empire State’s coffers will soon be bare.  69% of voters report they are either very worried or worried that the state will run out of money in December.  This compares with 21% who are not very worried and 10% who are not worried at all.

Most voters think the budget shortfall is a major problem.  88% feel this way compared with 11% who believe it is a minor problem.  Just 1% of voters say it’s not an issue at all.

Complete November 18, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

According to Marist Poll Director, Lee M. Miringoff, “Voters are paying attention to the budget problems in Albany and they’re not happy with what they’re seeing.”

Table: Concern About NYS Finances
Table: NYS Shortfall

Pointing the Finger…NYS Legislature to Blame, But Paterson Is Not in the Clear

With the state facing a $3 billion budget deficit, who do registered voters blame for not taking the lead to solve this problem?  70% point the finger at the state legislature while 21% are placing the blame on Governor David Paterson.

Does that mean that voters approve of how the governor is handling the budget?  No.  64% disapprove of how Paterson is dealing with the state’s budget while 28% approve.  The governor has failed to improve the public’s perception of him on this issue.  When Marist last asked about Governor Paterson’s handling of the state budget in September, similar proportions held these views.

And, when it comes to how he is managing the state’s economic crisis, here, too, 63% say they disapprove of the governor’s approach while 30% approve.  Similar proportions of voters reported they thought this way in September.

Table: Blame for Budget Deficit
Table: Paterson Handling of Budget
Table: Paterson Handling of Economic Crisis

Marist Poll Methodology

11/17: New Yorkers Divide Over Terror Trial Location

Eight years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Obama Administration has announced that five alleged attackers will be tried in federal court in the shadows of where the World Trade Towers once stood, New York City.

New Yorkers are speaking out about the venue for the trial, but there is a split decision on the matter.  45% of residents think it’s a good idea to have the trial in New York City while 41% believe it’s a bad one.  14% just aren’t sure.

Table: Terror Trial in NYC – Good or Bad Idea?
Click Here for Complete November 17th, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

City Residents Weigh Security Risk of Terror Trial

What about the risk of future terrorist attacks?  Although 47% say the location of the trial will not affect the likelihood of another terrorist attack occurring in New York City, a significant proportion are concerned the trial will put a bull’s eye on the city.  In fact, 40% believe having the trial in New York City will increase the possibility of another terrorist attack in the area.  7% think it will be less of a target, and another 6% are unsure about the implications of the trial for the city’s security.

Most New York City residents — 67% — are confident law enforcement officials will be able to handle the potential security risks associated with such a high profile trial in Manhattan.  22% don’t have as much faith.  This is the proportion of residents who believe New York City is not well equipped to handle the situation.  11% are unsure.

When it comes to their personal safety, a majority — 52% — of New York City residents don’t think it will impact their own security.  34% think the trial will compromise their personal safety and put them in greater danger, and 8% report it will put them in less danger.  6% are unsure.

Table: NYC More of a Target?
Table: Confidence in NYC to Handle Security Risks
Table: Personal Safety

Marist Poll Methodology

11/16: Reality Bites… Majority of Americans Prefer Sitcoms

When it comes to their “tube time,” a majority of Americans prefer to pass on reality television and tune into sitcoms.

52% of residents report they like watching sitcoms rather than reality shows.  29%, on the other hand, like to get their fix of shows like Survivor, The Biggest Loser, and The Bachelor. 19% don’t like either genre.

Table: Reality TV vs. Sitcoms

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Story:

True Confessions of a Quasi-Reality TV Watcher

11/13: Basketball Dribbles Off the Court

The NBA’s season is underway, but do Americans think the sport is a slam dunk?

Not really. In fact, 67% of residents ride the bench, saying they don’t watch the sport at all. 22% report they follow basketball a little, and just 11% follow the sport a great deal or good amount.

African American and Latino residents are more likely to catch a battle on the hardwood than are whites. 29% of African Americans and 27% of Latinos say they watch the NBA, at least, a good amount.  This compares with 6% of whites.

Table: Watch Basketball?

Marist Poll Methodology

11/13: Hockey Gets Checked into the Boards

Americans seem to be leaving hockey to their neighbors to the North.

Just 5% of U.S. residents watch professional hockey at least a good amount, and 14% say they catch a game occasionally.  81%, on the other hand, report not watching the sport at all.

Table: Watch Hockey?

Marist Poll Methodology

10/30: Bloomberg Leads Thompson by 15 Points Among Likely Voters

The race for New York City mayor is in the homestretch, and if today were Election Day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would handily win a third term.  Bloomberg currently leads Democratic challenger Bill Thompson — 53% to 38% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bloomberg’s lead among likely voters is consistent with the results of a Marist survey last week when Bloomberg received 52% to Thompson’s 36%.

Looking at political party, 45% of likely Democratic voters report they will back Bloomberg on Tuesday while 47% say they will support Thompson.  On the Republican side, 74% of likely GOP voters are behind Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson.  60% of non-enrolled voters back Bloomberg, and 27% say they will cast their ballot for Thompson.

Among registered voters citywide, Bloomberg leads Thompson, 48% to 37%, a difference of 11 percentage points.  Last week, Bloomberg garnered 47% of registered voters’ support while Thompson received 38%, a gap of 9 percentage points.

Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Likely Voters Including Leaners
Table: 2009 Race for Mayor in New York City — Registered Voters
Click Here for Complete October 30, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Three-Quarters of Likely Voters Strongly Committed to Candidate

75% of likely voters citywide say they will not waver when it comes to their choice of candidate.  An additional 20% report, regardless of whom they are planning to support, they are somewhat committed to their pick, and just 4% say they might change their minds before Tuesday.

The proportion of likely voters who strongly back their choice of candidate has grown since Marist last asked voters about their intensity of support.  Last week, 65% said they will definitely not change their vote come Election Day.  At that time, 26% were somewhat behind their candidate, and 8% reported they might change their vote.

Both Bloomberg and Thompson currently enjoy firm backing from their respective supporters.  77% of Bloomberg’s supporters and 73% of Thompson’s backers say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  Last week, those proportions were 71% for Bloomberg and 57% for Thompson.

Table: Intensity of Support

A Tale of Two Candidates’ Favorability Ratings

Mayor Bloomberg’s favorability rating is on solid ground.  61% of registered voters say they have a positive view of the mayor while 32% of voters report they have an unflattering opinion of the mayor.  These proportions are little changed from Marist’s previous poll when 63% rated the mayor favorably and 33% had a negative perception of him.

Bill Thompson’s favorability ratings have also not changed significantly since last week.  44% of voters maintain a positive impression of the comptroller, and 31% hold him in a negative light.  25% say they are either unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last time, 47% viewed Thompson favorably, 33% held a negative impression of him, and 20% were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bloomberg Favorability
Table: Thompson Favorability

Voters Care About Term Limits, But Does It Make a Difference?

Mayor Bloomberg’s action to extend term limits from two to three terms is not a deciding factor for 45% of voters.  Although a large proportion of voters — 43% — says it makes them less likely to vote for the mayor, this number has not grown through the course of the campaign.  9% report his action will make them more likely to vote for him.

Table: Term Limits and Bloomberg

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/30: Bloomberg’s Approval Rating at 54%

10/30: Bloomberg’s Approval Rating at 54%

A majority of New York City registered voters — 54% — think Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  45%, on the other hand, say he is doing either a fair or poor job.  The mayor’s job approval rating has inched down for the first time since February.  When Marist asked about Bloomberg’s job performance last week, 58% gave him high marks.

Democrats are the difference in the mayor’s lower approval rating.  51% of Democrats now say he is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  In Marist’s previous survey, 60% of Democrats held this view.  Among New York City’s GOP, 69% of registered Republicans think Bloomberg is doing an above average job as mayor.  He received the same rating when Marist asked this question last week.  When it comes to non-enrolled voters citywide, 55% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance.  Last week, half of non-enrolled voters approved of his job performance.

Voters also believe the city is on the right path.  56% say the city is moving in the right direction while 34% report it’s travelling along the wrong course.  Similar proportions of the electorate held these views last week.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating
Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Trend
Table: NYC Direction

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2009 NYC Poll Release and Tables

Marist Poll Methodology

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10/30: Bloomberg Has 15 Percentage Point Lead Over Thompson Among Likely Voters

10/29: Texting While Driving: “Do As I Say, Not As I Do,” Say Younger Americans

There’s good news for public safety officials.  82% of Americans report they never text while driving.  9% say it’s seldom they text while they drive, and 5% admit to doing it sometimes. 4%, though, say they often text while behind the wheel.

Younger Americans are the culprits when it comes to this touchy practice.  About one in five residents under 30 admit to at least sometimes texting while driving.  Another 18% do so but not very often.  60% say they never text while they drive.  In contrast, less than 4% of Americans between 45 and 59 years old say they text while they drive at least sometimes, and just 2% of those 60 and older admit to doing the same.

There is little difference between the sexes on this question.  10% of men report they text while behind the wheel at least sometimes compared with 8% of women.

Should there be a law banning texting while driving?  90% of Americans say, “Yes.”  Even 88% of younger residents say the practice should be outlawed.  They are in agreement with their elders on this question.  92% of those residents believe texting while driving should be punishable by law.

Table: Texting While Driving
Table: Ban Texting While Driving?

Marist Poll Methodology

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