2/5: Trump’s Lead Narrows as Rubio and Cruz Close Gap in New Hampshire

Just days after his defeat in Iowa, businessman Donald Trump, 30%, leads his closest competitors, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, 17%, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 15%, among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have voted absentee.  While Trump’s support is virtually unchanged from the 31% he had, his lead has declined from a 19 point advantage in the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll to 13 points now.  Rubio has gained momentum in the Granite State, up 6 points, following his strong third place finish in the Iowa caucus.  Cruz had 12% in last week’s New Hampshire poll.

Trump continues to lead his GOP rivals among most key demographic groups.  He runs best among likely Republican primary voters who are under 30, do not practice a religion, those without a college degree, Tea Party supporters, or men.  But, Rubio has made notable gains across the board.  Cruz does best and leads all competitors among likely GOP primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.

Among self-identified Republicans, Trump’s lead has been cut in half.  He now has 29% to 19% each for Rubio and Cruz.  Among independents, Trump has 31% followed by Rubio with 16%, Ohio Governor John Kasich with 14%, and Cruz with 11%.  Last week, Trump had a 12 point lead over his nearest rival, Kasich, among independents planning to vote in the GOP primary.

“Trump leads, but will he close it out this time?” asks Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As in Iowa, Rubio and Cruz are second choice favorites.”

67% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate, up from 59% previously.  Large proportions of Trump’s supporters, 78%, and Cruz’s backers, 76%, express a high level of commitment to their candidate selection.  54% of those behind Rubio say the same.  Seven percent are undecided, and 11% say they might vote differently on Primary Day.

When it comes to the second choice of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Rubio, 20%, and Cruz, 16%, are the preferred selections.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Trump are the only other candidates with double digits.

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of the Republican Primary Contest in New Hampshire

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete February 5, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

2/4: Sanders Outpaces Clinton in New Hampshire

Looking at the Democratic presidential contest in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 58%, outdistances former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 38%, among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who have voted absentee.  Sanders’ lead in the Granite State is virtually unchanged from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll conducted prior to the Iowa caucus.  Last week, Sanders led Clinton by 19 points, 57% to 38%.

Sanders is ahead among almost all key voting groups.  But, his lead is fueled by remarkable support among the state’s younger likely Democratic primary voters including younger women.  Sanders receives the support of 76% of likely Democratic voters under 30.  He is backed by 72% of those under 45 years of age including a 29 point lead over Clinton among women in this age group.  His strong showing among these voters was a big factor in the competitiveness of the Iowa caucus last week where he was backed by 84% of those under 30, according to the Edison Research Entrance Poll.  Clinton leads among women over 45 where she is ahead by nine points.  Sanders is also ahead among independents likely to vote in the Democratic primary by 43 points.  Among Democrats, he narrowly leads by 5 points.  Among likely Democratic primary voters who self-identify as very liberal or liberal, Sanders outpaces Clinton by 27 points, up 7 points from the previous poll.  His lead among moderates is 8 points, down from 18.

“As their rivalry intensifies, Sanders and Clinton are turning up the heat,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, so far in New Hampshire, it’s all Sanders as Clinton faces an uphill fight.”

When it comes to intensity of support, 79% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference including absentee voters strongly support their choice.  Among Clinton’s supporters, 80% have a high level of commitment to her while a similar proportion of Sanders’ backers, 77%, express the same level of support for him.  Three percent are undecided, and 6% say they might vote differently on Primary Day.

President Barack Obama’s job performance continues to receive low marks from New Hampshire residents.  43% approve of how President Obama is doing his job, the same score he received in the state late last month.  83% of likely Democratic primary voters approve of the job the president is doing in office.

Complete February 4, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of the Democratic Primary Contest in New Hampshire

Complete February 4, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete February 4, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

 

1/28: Trump Leads in IA, NH, and SC… Clinton and Sanders Competitive in IA, Sanders up in NH, Clinton Leads in SC

First things first, in Iowa, both businessman Donald Trump and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are banking on inspiring potential first time attendees to caucus.  In contrast, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton draw strength from voters who have been down this path before.

The latest results in Iowa for the GOP show Trump, 32%, has taken the lead over his nearest rival, Cruz, 25%, by 7 points among likely Republican caucus-goers statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Trump’s support has increased by 8 points while Cruz’s has decreased by 3.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio, 18%, remains in third place but has improved his standing by 5 points.  Cruz, 28%, edged Trump, 24%, by 4 points in the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of the state earlier this month.

In New Hampshire, Trump, 31%, has a 19 point lead over his closest competitor, Cruz, 12%, among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or voted absentee.  Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich follow, each with 11%.  Trump’s lead is comparable to the 16 point advantage he had over Rubio, who was his closest competitor, earlier this month.  Of note, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who was in third place with 12%, now receives 7% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire and places sixth behind former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 8%.

In South Carolina, Trump, 36%, also has a double-digit lead over, Cruz, 20%, among likely Republican primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Rubio is in third with 14% and is the only other candidate with double-digit support.

It’s worth noting that in all three states, Cruz is the preferred second choice candidate among likely Republican voters with a candidate preference followed by Rubio in each state.

“Trump is positioned to run the house in these first three states.  His supporters are committed and plan to turn out,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Will it happen?  The answer depends on when or if anti-Trump sentiment will coalesce to interrupt his march to the nomination.”

In Iowa, when compared with the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Trump is now ahead or closely competitive with Cruz among key voting groups.  Trump has increased his support since last time among likely Republican caucus-goers who are Tea Party supporters (+16), those who practice a religion (+13), white Evangelical Christians (+12), conservatives (+12), independents (+12), those without a college education (+12), or men (+11).  Cruz and Trump now divide Tea Party supporters, 39% for Cruz and 38% for Trump.

In New Hampshire, Trump continues to lead among all key demographic groups.  His support is especially bolstered by those who say they strongly support their choice of candidate, are not married, do not practice a religion, are under 45 years old, are men, do not have a college degree, or identify as Republican.

In South Carolina, Trump also has the advantage over his GOP rivals among all demographic groups.  Trump does best among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina who strongly support their choice of candidate, do not practice a religion, earn less than $50,000 annually, have not voted in a previous Republican presidential primary, or do not have a college degree.  He also does well among men, those who are not married, or are Tea Party supporters.  Also noteworthy, Trump leads Cruz by 8 points among white Evangelical Christians in the state.

In Iowa, 61% of likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers with a candidate preference, including 76% of Trump backers but only 58% of Cruz supporters, are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  Three percent of likely Republican caucus-goers are still undecided, and 11% report they might vote differently.

In New Hampshire, 59% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their candidate selection.  72% of Trump’s supporters say they will not waver in their commitment to him compared with 59% of Cruz’s backers.  Five percent are undecided, and 12% say they might vote differently.

In South Carolina, 56% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, including 68% of Trump’s backers, say they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  57% of Cruz’s supporters and 37% of voters behind Rubio express a similar level of support for their candidate.  Six percent are undecided, and 13% might vote differently.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 48%, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 45%, remain competitive among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, unchanged from earlier this month.

It’s a different story in New Hampshire where Sanders, 57%, has opened up a 19 point lead over Clinton, 38%, among likely Democratic primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or voted absentee.  Previously, Sanders had 50% to 46% for Clinton.

In South Carolina, Clinton’s firewall is intact.  Among likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Clinton, 64%, outpaces Sanders, 27%, by more than two-to-one.

“The stakes are sky high for Clinton and Sanders in Iowa,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “If Clinton carries Iowa, she can absorb a defeat to Sanders who has a home field advantage in New Hampshire and then move on to South Carolina.  But, if Sanders carries Iowa and then New Hampshire, this contest will, indeed, be a marathon.”

In Iowa, the contest is unchanged from earlier this month.  Clinton leads among those age 45 or older, Democratic Party identifiers, women, or those who have participated in a previous Democratic presidential caucus.  Sanders leads among those who consider themselves independents, are under 45 years old, men, or are first time participants.

In New Hampshire, Sanders now leads Clinton among most key demographic groups.  The biggest change has occurred among those who identify as Democrats.  Sanders is now ahead of Clinton by 8 points among the party’s base.  Previously, Clinton had an 18 point advantage over Sanders among Democratic identifiers who are likely to vote in the primary.

In South Carolina, Clinton outpaces Sanders by more than three to one among likely primary voters who consider themselves Democrats.  However, independents divide in their support, 47% for Clinton to 46% for Sanders.  Six in ten likely Democratic primary voters in the state are African American, and Clinton leads Sanders by 57 points among this group.

Looking at intensity of support, 77% of likely Democratic caucus-goers with a candidate preference in Iowa, including 79% of Clinton supporters and 76% of those who are for Sanders, strongly support their choice of candidate.  Four percent are undecided, and 6% say they might vote differently.

Three in four likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire with a candidate preference, 75%, have a high level of commitment to their candidate selection.  77% of Clinton’s supporters and 76% of Sanders’ backers strongly support their choice of candidate.  Three percent are undecided, and 5% report they might vote differently.

Nearly two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina with a candidate preference, 65%, including 68% of Clinton’s supporters and 58% of Sanders’ backers, are firmly behind their choice of candidate.  Seven percent are undecided, and 10% say they might vote differently.

South Carolinians consider job creation and economic growth, 27%, to be the most important issue of the 2016 presidential campaign.  National security and terrorism, 24%, follows closely behind.  However a partisan divide exists.  Among likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, national security and terrorism, 34%, is the issue driving the campaign.  For likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, job creation and economic growth, 42%, is most mentioned.

When it comes to other pressing issues in the campaign, opinions mostly align along party lines.  Likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina are more likely to support sending combat troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and banning Muslims from entering the United States.  They oppose same-sex marriage, creating stricter gun laws, providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and government action to combat climate change.

Likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina are more likely to support stricter gun laws, government steps to combat climate change, creating a pathway to citizenship, and same-sex marriage.  They are more likely to oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States and sending combat troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

The one issue on which likely Republican and Democratic primary voters agree is free trade.  About six in ten in each party support free trade with foreign countries.

Turning to the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte, 45%, edges her Democratic challenger Governor Maggie Hassan, 40%, among registered voters statewide.

Looking at President Barack Obama’s job approval rating, his score is upside down in all three states.  Among residents in Iowa, 42% approve of his job performance.  43% of those in New Hampshire, and 42% of South Carolina residents agree.

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Likely Republican Caucus-Goers)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Likely Democratic Caucus-Goers)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Democratic Primary Voters) 

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of South Carolina (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of South Carolina (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete January 28, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of South Carolina (Likely Democratic Primary Voters) 

Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa 

Nature of the Sample for Iowa 

Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire 

Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

Marist Poll Methodology for South Carolina 

Nature of the Sample for South Carolina

1/10: Cruz and Trump Vie in IA, Trump NH Favorite… Clinton and Sanders Competitive

With just weeks to go until the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 28%, edges businessman Donald Trump, 24%, among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio, 13%, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 11%, are vying for the “third ticket” out of Iowa.

In New Hampshire, Trump, 30%, outdistances Rubio, 14%, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 12%, among likely Republican primary voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 10%, Ohio Governor John Kasich, 9%, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 9%, follow.

 

Cruz does better among likely GOP caucus-goers in Iowa who support the Tea Party, identify as conservative, are white Evangelical Christians, are men, or college graduates.  Trump is ahead among those who do not practice a religion, those who are unmarried, and moderates.

In New Hampshire, Trump leads his Republican rivals among all key demographic groups.  He does especially well among likely GOP voters who are college educated, those who do not practice a religion, Tea Party supporters, or conservatives.

Looking at intensity of support, nearly six in ten Iowa likely Republican caucus-goers with a candidate preference, 59%, report they are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  A similar proportion of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference in New Hampshire, 55%, also express a high level of support for their candidate of choice.

Cruz, 21%, is the preferred second choice candidate among likely Republican caucus-goers with a candidate preference in Iowa followed by Trump and Rubio each with 16%.  Among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire with a candidate preference, Rubio, with 17%, is the preferred second choice candidate.  Christie comes next with 14% followed by Cruz with 13%.

“Trump and Cruz are battling for the insurgent lane in Iowa, and likely GOP caucus-goers divide over who will get the third ticket out of the Hawkeye State,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “In New Hampshire, the big question is whether anyone will emerge to unite the GOP establishment and overtake Trump.”

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are competitive among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and among New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  In Iowa, Clinton has 48% to 45% for Sanders.  In New Hampshire, Sanders is backed by 50% compared with 46% for Clinton.

Among likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, Clinton has a 15 point lead among Democrats while Sanders has a 33 point margin among independents.  Clinton has a wide lead over Sanders among likely Democratic caucus-goers who are 45 or older.  Sanders has a more than two-to-one lead over Clinton among those under 45 who plan to caucus.  A gender gap exists. Clinton lags behind with 39% among men but receives majority support, 56%, among women.

In New Hampshire, Sanders outpaces Clinton by more than two-to-one among likely Democratic primary voters who identify as independent.  Clinton leads by a wide margin, 18 points, among likely voters who are Democrats.  A gender divide exists.  Clinton narrowly leads Sanders by 4 points among women likely to vote in the Democratic primary.  Among men, Sanders has a 16 point advantage over Clinton.  He also outdistances Clinton by 33 points among voters under 45 whereas Clinton surpasses Sanders by 9 points among voters who are older.

Looking at intensity of support, in Iowa, 71% of likely Democratic caucus-goers with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice of candidate.  76% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference in New Hampshire express a similar level of support for their selection.

“The Democratic contests in Iowa and New Hampshire could still go either way,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “So, if your New Year’s resolution was to have clarity in 2016, you better also have resolved to be patient.”

Turning to the general election, when Clinton and Sanders are each matched against, Trump, Cruz, or Rubio, Sanders does better than Clinton among registered voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire.  In Iowa, Sanders achieves his largest lead, 13 points, against Trump and is ahead of Cruz by 5 points among the statewide electorate.  Sanders and Rubio are tied among registered voters in Iowa.  Sanders leads Trump and Cruz by 19 points in New Hampshire and has a 9 point lead over Rubio in the state.

Looking at Clinton’s general election prospects, she does best against Trump.  Clinton leads Trump by 8 points in Iowa, but she is in a statistical dead heat with him in New Hampshire.  In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton trails Cruz and Rubio.  Her largest deficit is against Rubio in New Hampshire.  Rubio leads Clinton by 12 points among registered voters statewide.

When it comes to the issue driving the 2016 presidential election, Iowa likely Republican caucus-goers, 35%, and New Hampshire likely Republican primary voters, 36%, consider national security and terrorism to be critical.  However, Iowa likely Democratic caucus-goers, 29%, and New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, 30%, say job creation and economic growth is the most pressing topic.

Partisan differences are also reflected in attitudes about many of the hot-button issues facing the United States.  Iowa likely Republican caucus-goers support free trade with foreign countries, sending combat troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and banning Muslims from entering the United States.  They oppose tightening restrictions on the sale of guns, taking action against climate change, and same-sex marriage.  They divide about creating immigration policies which include a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.  In New Hampshire, likely GOP primary voters are also more likely to support free trade and sending U.S. combat troops to fight ISIS.  However, they support same-sex marriage.  Likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States, strengthening restrictions on the sale of firearms, immigration policies which include a pathway to citizenship, and combating climate change.

The likely Democratic electorates in both Iowa and New Hampshire support same-sex marriage, taking action to combat climate change, strengthening laws covering the sale of firearms, immigration policies which include a pathway to citizenship for undocumented or illegal immigrants, and free trade with foreign countries.  They oppose banning Muslims from entering the United States and sending troops to fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating continues to be upside down among residents in Iowa and New Hampshire.  51% of Iowa residents disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, and 40% approve.  In New Hampshire, 50% of adults disapprove of how the president is doing his job, and 42% approve.  President Obama’s approval ratings in Iowa and New Hampshire reflect those reported previously in October’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll.

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Release of Iowa and New Hampshire

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Likely Republican Caucus-Goers)

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of Iowa (Likely Democratic Caucus-Goers)

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Adults & Registered Voters)

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Republican Primary Voters)

Complete January 10, 2016 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Tables of New Hampshire (Likely Democratic Primary Voters)

 Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa

 Nature of the Sample for Iowa

 Marist Poll Methodology for New Hampshire

 Nature of the Sample for New Hampshire

12/22: Weight Loss Top New Year’s Resolution… Finding a Better Job Gains Traction

December 22, 2015 by  
Filed under Celebrations, Celebrations Polls, Featured, Living

Health and employment are top of mind heading into 2016.  Among Americans who plan to make a New Year’s resolution, weight loss, 12%, takes the top spot followed by getting a better job, 10%.  Exercising more, 9%, quitting smoking, 9%, and improving one’s, overall, health, 9%, round out the top five New Year’s resolutions for 2016.

While weight loss, 13%, was the leading resolution for 2015, finding a better job was the goal of just 5%.  But, this year, fueled by people under 45, among whom it’s number one, getting a better job also rivals the top spot for all Americans.

Do Americans plan to make a resolution for 2016?  Less than four in ten Americans, 39%, say they are very likely or likely to do so.  This is down from 44% last year.  However, similar to last year, younger Americans are more likely to resolve to change than older Americans in the New Year.

Many Americans are also true to their word.  Nearly two-thirds of those who made a resolution for 2015, 64%, report they kept their resolution, at least, in part.  Similar proportions of men, 65%, and women, 63%, say they kept their promise.  The proportion of women who kept their resolution increased from 55% last year.

Complete December 22, 2015 Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • 12% of Americans who are likely to make a New Year’s resolution vow to lose weight. 10% want to find a better job.  Getting more exercise, 9%, ceasing smoking, 9%, and improving their health, 9%, follow.  Eight percent want to be a better person, and another 8% say they will try to eat healthier in the New Year.  Seven percent resolve to spend less and save more.  Last year, 13% vowed to lose weight, 10% promised to exercise more, 9% resolved to be a better person, and 8% wanted to improve their health.  Quitting smoking, 7%, spending less and saving more, 7%, and eating healthier, 7%, followed.
  • Regional differences exist.  One in five Northeast residents who plan to make a resolution, 20%, resolve to find a better job.  However, in the Midwest, quitting smoking, 12%, improving one’s health, 11%, and eating healthier, 10%, vie for the top spot.  13% of those in the South cite weight loss while 12% mention saving more and spending less.  Among those in the West, 13% want to find a new job, 12% cite exercising more, and 11% mention weight loss.
  • Women, 16%, are more likely than men, 6%, to mention weight loss.  Men, 13%, put finding a better job at the top of their list.  Quitting smoking, 11%, and exercising more, 10%, follow.
  • 39% of Americans are very likely or likely to make a resolution for 2016 while 61% are not likely at all to do so.  The proportion of Americans making resolutions is down from 44% last year and at the lowest point since 2011 when 38% of residents vowed to do so.
  • Americans under 45, 47%, are more likely than older residents, 31%, to make a resolution.  Still, the proportion of younger Americans making resolutions is down from 56%.
  • Among those who vowed to change something in their life last year, 64% kept that resolution, at least, in part.
  • Similar proportions of men, 65%, and women, 63%, kept their 2015 New Year’s resolution.  There has been an increase in the proportion of women who kept their word, up from 55% previously.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

12/21: “Whatever” Most Annoying Word for Seventh Year

December 21, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, Living, Odds and Ends, Odds and Ends Polls

Whatever! 

For the seventh consecutive year, “whatever” tops the list as the word or phrase Americans, 43%, consider to be the most annoying.  “No offense, but” is a distant second with 22% followed closely by “like” with 20%.  Seven percent are irked by “no worries” while 3% consider “huge” to be most irritating.

Complete December 21, 2015 Marist Poll of the United States

In last year’s survey, the same proportion, 43%, called “whatever” the most annoying word followed by “like” with 23%.  “Literally” received 13% while 10% mentioned “awesome.”  Eight percent chose “with all due respect” as the most irritating word or phrase in 2014.

Regardless of age, race, gender, region of residence, income, or level of education, “whatever” is thought to be the most bothersome word in casual conversation today.  Of note, Americans in the South, 48%, and Midwest, 46%, are more likely than those in the Northeast, 38%, and in the West, 36%, to dislike the word, “whatever.”  African Americans, 54%, are more likely to be annoyed by “whatever, than whites, 41%, or Latinos, 42%.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

12/17: Deflategate, FIFA Scandal, & Mizzou Protests Vie for Top Sports Story of 2015

December 17, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, Special Events, Sports, Sports Bench

Three in ten sports fans, 30%, think the “Deflategate” controversy involving Tom Brady and the New England Patriots was the most profound sports story of 2015.  The resignation of FIFA president Sepp Blatter after 14 FIFA executives were arrested for their involvement in a corruption scandal, 27%, and the protest by the University of Missouri’s football team to fight campus racism, resulting in the resignation of the University’s president, 27%, follow.  The growing concern over Daily Fantasy Sports wagering on websites such as Draft Kings or Fan Duels receives 9%.  But, differences of opinion exist.  Latinos point to FIFA corruption as most significant.

It was a big year for the U.S. women’s soccer team, and American sports fans took notice.  About one in three, 33%, considers the team’s World Cup victory over Japan to be the single best sports accomplishment of the year.  American Pharaoh’s Triple Crown run came in second with 21% followed by the Kansas City Royals first World Series win since 1985 with 17%.  The New England Patriots’ fourth Super Bowl win since 2002 receives 14%.  13% point to the victory of the Golden State Warriors over the Cleveland Cavaliers for the NBA title as the biggest sports accomplishment of 2015.

Which player had the biggest impact on his or her sport in 2015?  Steph Curry of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, 27%, and New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady, 27%, top the list.  Serena Williams, 19%, slides into the number three spot.

This Marist Poll has been conducted in conjunction with the Marist College Center for Sports Communication.

Click Here for Complete December 17, 2015 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

“These results affirm the significance of Tom Brady in the sports landscape,” says Keith Strudler, Director of the Marist College Center for Sports Communication, “Brady is considered one of the two top athletes of the year but is also viewed as a central figure in one of the biggest sports stories of the year.”

Poll points:

  • 30% of American sports fans say “Deflategate” had the biggest impact on sports this year while 27% have this view of the resignation of FIFA president Sepp Blatter, and an additional 27% have this opinion of the resignation of the University of Missouri’s president as a result of the protests by the school’s football team over campus racism.  Only 9% of sports fans mention growing concern over Daily Fantasy sports wagering on websites such as Draft Kings or Fan Duel. 
  • Demographic differences exist.  “Deflategate” is thought to be the most influential sports story of the year by women who are sports fans, 33%, white sports fans, 32%, fans in the South, 31%, and those 45 or older, 30%.  Of note, 28% of fans 45 or older mention the protests at the University of Missouri. 
  • The resignation of FIFA president Sepp Blatter is deemed the most resounding sports story by Latino sports fans, 46%, and fans in the West, 33%, and men, 32%. 
  • 33% of sports fans in the Northeast think “Deflategate” is the story with the biggest impact on sports this year while 31% say the same about the resignation of Sepp Blatter.  Among Midwest fans, 31% cite the campus protests at the University of Missouri while 29% believe the “Deflategate” controversy was the most significant.  37% of African American sports fans note the importance of the campus protests at the University of Missouri while 34% think “Deflategate” was the most influential sports story in 2015.  Among those under 45 years old, 31% choose the FIFA scandal while 30% select “Deflategate.”
  • 33% of sports fans say the World Cup victory by the U.S. women’s soccer team over Japan is the biggest sports accomplishment of the year.  21% believe that honor goes to American Pharaoh’s Triple Crown win while 17% say the Kansas City Royals’ first World Series victory since 1985 deserves top honors.  14% say the New England Patriots’ fourth Super Bowl win since 2002 is the biggest sports accomplishment of the year. 13% have this opinion of the Golden State Warriors defeat of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA finals.
  • While the U.S. women’s soccer team’s World Cup win is considered the biggest sports accomplishment by sports fans in other regions, among fans in the Midwest, the World Cup win, 31%, and the Royals’ World Series victory, 28%, battle it out for this year’s top honor.
  • Among African American sports fans, 32% choose the U.S. women’s soccer team’s win while the same proportion, 32%, selects the Golden State Warriors’ victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers as the year’s biggest sports accomplishment.  More than three in ten white sports fans, 31%, consider the World Cup victory to take top honors while 27% say this year’s Triple Crown win by American Pharaoh deserves the noteworthy distinction.  42% of Latino sports fans mention the U.S. women’s soccer team’s World Cup victory.
  • 27% of sports fans nationally say the Golden State Warriors’ Steph Curry had the biggest impact on the NBA this year.  Another 27% think NFL quarterback Tom Brady had the largest effect on his sport while 19% say tennis great Serena Williams had a major impact on tennis.  12% of American sports fans report professional golfer Jordan Spieth had the biggest impact on his sport in 2015, and 9% think professional soccer player Carli Lloyd had the greatest effect on the soccer world. 
  • Demographically, Steph Curry is believed to have had the biggest impact on the NBA by African American fans, 40%, and those under 45 years old, 39%, including 43% of those 18 to 29 years old.  Men, 33%, Latinos, 31%, and sports fans who reside in the West, 31%, also have this view. 
  • Tom Brady is thought to have had the largest effect on the NFL by Northeast fans, 35%, white sports fans, 30%, and women who follow sports, 30%. 
  • 57% of Americans, similar to 60% last year, are sports fans.

Marist Poll Methodology

Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

12/8: Clinton Leads Trump and Cruz… Competitive against Bush, Rubio, and Carson

In the 2016 race for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 52%, leads businessman Donald Trump, 41%, by double digits and is ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz by seven points, 51% for Clinton to 44% for Cruz.  However, the race tightens when Clinton is matched against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.  Clinton edges Bush by four points, Rubio by three points, and she is in a virtual tie with Carson.

Among Latino voters nationally, Clinton has a wide lead.  However, all of these Republicans, except Trump, are getting a greater proportion of Latino voters than either Romney or McCain did in their presidential bids against Obama.

Americans, 58%, including most Latinos, 64%, think the Democratic Party better represents the views of Latinos.

When it comes to impressions of the candidates, Clinton’s rating is upside down among Americans.  Yet, a majority of Latinos have a positive opinion of her, and a plurality thinks she is improving the image of the Democratic Party.

On the Republican side, Carson remains the candidate with the highest positive rating among Americans.  However, as Carson has become better known, his negatives have more than doubled.  Still, Carson and Rubio are the only candidates with higher positive than negative scores among both Americans and Latinos.  Trump has the highest negative rating among Americans, 55%, and Latinos, 67%.

In addition, Trump is considered by nearly six in ten Americans, including nearly two-thirds of Latinos, to be hurting the Republican Party.  Majorities of Americans and Latinos also consider Trump to be insulting and offensive and do not believe he is the type of leader the nation needs now.  Republicans disagree.  71% of registered Republicans believe Trump “tells it like it is.”  76% think he is the kind of leader the country needs although a majority of these voters think he should better censor how he says things.

What do voters value in a candidate?  Half of the national electorate, 50%, thinks it is more important that a candidate reflects their positions on the issues while 46% say it is more important that a candidate share their values.  Latino voters are slightly more likely to prefer a candidate who shares their values, 51%, than one who identifies with them on the issues, 47%.

Most voters, including nearly three in four Latinos, say it would not affect their vote if a presidential candidate chooses someone of Latino or Hispanic background to be their running mate.  There is less of a consensus about whether or not voters would be more or less likely to support a candidate who supports the rollback of President Barack Obama’s executive action on immigration.

When it comes to the issue driving the election, jobs and the economy still ranks first among both Americans and Latinos.  Of note, terrorism has jumped to the number two spot among Americans.  Latinos mention education and immigration as their next two important concerns.

Most Americans watched at least some of presidential debates.  A notable proportion of both Americans and Latinos say the debates changed their mind about whom they would support for president.

Complete December 8, 2015 MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll of the United States

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 52%, leads Trump, 41%, by 11 points among registered voters nationally.  In the September MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist Poll, Clinton was ahead of Trump by 13 points.  Among Latino voters, Clinton’s lead over Trump is 69% to 27%.  In September, Clinton outdistanced Trump by 47 points among Latinos.
  • Clinton, 51%, also has the advantage over, Cruz, 44%.  Clinton’s lead against Cruz has narrowed slightly from 11 points three months ago.  Clinton, 61%, outpaces Cruz, 34%, among Latino voters.  Clinton previously led Cruz by 33 points among the Latino electorate.
  • Clinton, 49%, edges Bush, 45%, among the national electorate.  The two candidates’ support is identical to what it was in the last poll.  Among Latino voters, Clinton, 61%, has a 26 point lead against Bush, 35%.  She previously led Bush by 30 points.
  • Clinton, 48%, and Rubio, 45%, are competitive.  Earlier this fall, Clinton, 50%, edged Rubio, 44%.  Among Latino voters, Clinton, 57%, outdistances Rubio, 38%, by 19 points.  However, in September Clinton was ahead of Rubio by 30 points among Latinos.
  • Clinton, 48%, and Carson, 47%, are in a virtual tie among registered voters.  However, Clinton outpaces Carson by 26 points among Latino voters, 61% to 35%.
  • Looking at the generic ballot, the Democratic candidate, 45%, and the Republican candidate, 45%, have identical support.  Among Latino voters, the Democratic candidate, 56%, is the favorite, but 36% say they would support the Republican candidate.
  • With 89% of Democrats reporting they would support the Democratic candidate and 94% of Republicans saying they would back the Republican candidate, there is a clear partisan divide.  Among independent voters, 42% would vote for the GOP candidate while 39% would support the Democratic candidate.  A notable 18% of independents are undecided.
  • 58% of registered voters, including 64% of Latino voters, think the Democratic Party better represents the views of Latinos.  22% of the national electorate, including 24% of Latino voters, believe the Republican Party better reflects the opinions of Latinos.
  • A majority of Americans, 55%, including 56% of Latinos, believe there have been enough members of the Clinton and Bush families in the White House.  40% of adults and 37% of Latinos disagree.

 Candidates’ Images

How do Americans view the leading candidates for president?  Only Carson and Rubio have a higher positive rating than negative score among Americans.


Only 32% of Americans, including 43% of Latinos, think Hillary Clinton is helping the image of the Democratic Party.  A majority of Democrats, 56%, believe Clinton is having a positive impact on their party.

A majority of Americans, 58%, including 65% of Latinos, believe Donald Trump is hurting the Republican brand.  Republicans divide.  43% think he helps the image of the party, and 40% believe he hurts it.  Americans and Latinos, alike, have reservations about Trump.  A majority of Americans, 52%, including 65% of Latinos, consider Trump to be insulting and offensive.  In contrast, 43% of Americans, including 31% of Latinos, say Trump tells it like it is.  In September, Americans divided about Trump’s manner of speaking.  49% thought he was insulting while 45% valued his candor.

When it comes to whether or not Trump is the kind of leader the nation needs, a majority of Americans, 55%, and an even greater proportion of Latinos, 68%, do not think he is the kind of leader the country needs now.  Most Republicans, 76%, disagree including 24% who think he is right for the times and 52% who report he is the kind of leader the nation needs if he can rein in his rhetoric.

Deciding Factors                                                                                       

When deciding for whom to vote, 50% of registered voters nationally believe it is more important that a candidate is closest to them on the issues while 46% want someone who shares their values.  Among Latino voters, 51% prefer a candidate who reflects their values while 47% think it is more important that a candidate is closest to them on the issues.

Most voters nationally, 88%, including 74% of Latino voters, say it makes no difference to their vote if a presidential nominee chooses a vice presidential candidate who is of Latino or Hispanic background.  A notable 23% of Latinos, though, would be more inclined to vote for a candidate who chooses a Latino or Hispanic running mate.

There is less consensus about whether or not voters would be more likely to support a candidate who favors the rollback of President Barack Obama’s executive action on immigration.  36% of the national electorate would be more likely to cast their ballot for such a candidate.  26% would be less likely to do so, and 33% say a candidate’s position on the issue makes no difference to their vote.  The views of Latino voters closely reflect those of the overall electorate.  54% of Republicans would support a candidate with this position compared with only 22% of Democrats.

But, do Americans consider immigration to be a key component in deciding their vote?  Jobs and the economy, 28%, remains the leading campaign issue.  Terrorism, 15%, health care, 12%, education, 12%, foreign policy, 9%, immigration, 9%, and taxes, 5%, follow.  In September, jobs and the economy, 32%, topped the list.  Education, 15%, health care, 13%, and immigration, 11%, also received double-digits.  Of note, the proportion of Americans who cite terrorism as the leading campaign issue has more than doubled from 6% in September.

Among Latinos, the number one issue in deciding their voter is jobs and the economy, 25%.  19% mention education followed closely by 18% who say immigration.  Terrorism is a concern of 11%.  10% mention health care.  Seven percent cite foreign policy while 6% say taxes.  In September’s survey, 31% of Latinos considered jobs and the economy to be the leading issue in the presidential contest followed by immigration with 24%.

Debates Draw Large Audiences

More than three in four registered voters, 76%, including 77% of Latino voters, watched at least some of the televised Republican presidential debates.  When it comes to the Democratic debates, more than six in ten registered voters, 63%, including 66% of Latino voters have tuned in for, at least, some of them.

Do the debates matter?  Among registered voters who watched the debates, 61%, including 58% of Latino voters, say the debates have not changed their minds about the candidate they plan to support.  Notable proportions of both registered voters, 35%, and Latino voters, 37%, say they have switched their support as a result of tuning into the debates.

Americans Confident U.S. will Defeat ISIS… More than One-Third Concerned about Terror Attack

Nearly seven in ten Americans, including 72% of Latinos, think the United States and its allies will be able to defeat ISIS.  However, concern about another terror attack exists.  A plurality of Americans say they are more concerned they will be a victim of a terror attack than of gun violence or police brutality.

Poll points:

  • 69% of Americans and 72% of Latinos think the U.S. and its allies will be successful in defeating ISIS.  24% of residents overall, including 22% of Latinos, do not think the U.S. will be successful.
  • 36% of Americans are more worried that they or someone they know will be a victim of a terror attack than gun violence, 31%, or police brutality, 17%.  Among Latinos, 32% express concern over terrorism, 31% are worried about gun violence, and 24% are concerned about police brutality.  More African Americans are concerned about being a victim of police brutality, 41% than either gun violence, 29%, or a terror attack, 16%.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

11/24: Americans Oppose Big Game Hunting… More Than Six in Ten Favor Legal Ban

November 24, 2015 by  
Filed under Featured, Special Events, Sports, Sports Bench

A majority of Americans, 56%, opposes hunting animals for sport, and most Americans, 86%, consider big game hunting to be especially distasteful.

But, should big game hunting be legally prohibited?  More than six in ten residents, 62%, say the practice is wrong and should be legally banned, including 34% of hunters.  Another 24% of Americans and 31% of hunters say they disapprove of the practice but do not think it should be deemed illegal.  11% of adults nationally think the practice is acceptable.  Not surprisingly, those who are hunters or have an interest in hunting, 28%, are more likely than Americans, overall, to say there is nothing wrong with big game hunting.

Americans are more opposed to big game hunting when compared with hunting animals for sport.  A majority of Americans believes hunting, in general, is wrong.  This includes 26% who think it should be illegal and 33% who disapprove but do not think it should be banned.  37% of U.S. residents say there is nothing wrong with hunting animals, more than three times the proportion of Americans who believe big game hunting is acceptable.

Most Americans, 81%, have heard something about the controversy surrounding Minnesota dentist Walter Palmer’s big game hunt, including 56% who say they know at least a good amount about it.  Dr. Palmer drew international attention after he killed an African lion who was collared and part of a study.  Dr. Palmer maintains he was unaware that Cecil was a local favorite and relied on his guides to ensure a fair hunt.  Do Americans think Palmer acted illegally?  About one in three residents, 32%, says he did something illegal while an additional 41% believe his actions were unethical but not illegal.  A notable 22% say the dentist did nothing wrong.  Hunters, 42%, are nearly twice as likely as residents, overall, to report that Dr. Palmer’s actions were acceptable.

Views on big game hunting are not absolute.  Nearly four in ten opponents of the sport, 39%, say, if given the information that money paid for big game hunting would be allocated toward conservation efforts and to save animals that would otherwise have died, their view would change either a great deal, 10%, or somewhat, 29%.

How popular is hunting in the United States?  More than one in ten Americans, 11%, reports they have hunted within the last couple of years.  And, regardless of whether or not they have hunted, one in five Americans, 20%, have interest in the sport.

This HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll has been conducted in conjunction with the Marist College Center for Sports Communication.

Click Here for Complete November 24, 2015 USA HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“We are far more universally aligned against hunting big game animals than hunting for sport, both generally and in the specific case of Cecil the lion,” says Keith Strudler, Director of the Marist College Center for Sports Communication. “We can see that national opinions on this sport are driven more by the type of animal than perhaps general notions of killing animals or even guns.”

Poll points:

  • 56% of Americans either strongly oppose, 33%, or somewhat oppose, 23%, hunting animals for sport.  41% of adults either strongly favor it, 20%, or somewhat favor the practice, 21%.
  • 86% of Americans disapprove of big game hunting.  This includes 62% who think big game hunting is wrong and should be prohibited by law and 24% who personally disapprove of the practice but do not think it should be legally banned.  11% say this type of hunting is acceptable.
  • Even three in four gun owners, 75%, and about two-thirds of hunters, 65%, are opposed to big game hunting, although, gun owners, 20%, and hunters, 28%, are more likely than Americans, overall, to think big game hunting is acceptable.
  • Women, 68%, are more likely than men, 55%, to say big game hunting should be legally prohibited.
  • Nearly six in ten adults nationally, 59%, think hunting animals for sport, in general, is unacceptable.  Included here are 26% who say hunting should be prohibited by law and 33% who say they personally disapprove but do not think hunting should be illegal.  37% say it is an acceptable practice.
  • Men, 45%, are more likely than women, 30%, to believe there is nothing wrong with hunting.
  • When it comes to the controversy surrounding Dr. Walter Palmer, most Americans, 81%, have heard about it. A majority of Americans, 56%, have heard either a great deal, 34%, or a good amount, 22%, about Palmer’s hunt in Africa which resulted in the killing of Cecil the lion.
  • 73% of Americans believe Palmer did something wrong during his big game hunt.  Only 32% say he did something illegal.  41% report Palmer’s actions were unethical but not illegal.  A notable 22% think Dr. Palmer did nothing wrong.
  • Hunters, 42%, and gun owners, 32%, are more likely than Americans, overall, to report Dr. Palmer did nothing wrong.
  • If given the knowledge that money paid for big game hunts funded conservation efforts, 61% of Americans who oppose big game hunting say their opinion would not change.  10% say this information would alter their opinion a great deal, and 29% report it would change their view somewhat.
  • 20% of Americans say they are interested in hunting as a sport, and 11% say they have been hunting in the past couple of years.
  • Gun owners, 29%, are nearly three times as likely as Americans, overall, to say they have hunted recently.
  • There is also a gender difference.  18% of men have participated in a hunt over the last couple of years compared with only 5% of women.

Marist Poll Methodology
Marist Poll Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

11/18: Voters Value Benefits of Electing Older President

More than seven in ten voters nationally, 71%, think electing a president who is 65 years of age or older is a benefit because such a candidate brings wisdom and experience to the position.  Less than one in four voters, 24%, believe electing an older president is a risk because after several years in office they may not be up to the demands of the job.  Six percent are unsure.

Regardless of party affiliation, ideology, Tea Party support, age, race, gender, level of education, income, or region of residence, voters acknowledge the benefits of electing an older presidential candidate.

Complete November 18, 2015 McClatchy-Marist Poll of the United States

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables

 

 

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