November 4, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest, November 2024
Harris +4 Points Against Trump Nationally
In this final, national NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. While Trump maintains his lead over Harris among white voters, Harris’ support among these voters outpaces what President Biden achieved four years ago. Harris has also made inroads among men, cutting Trump’s once double-digit lead down to single digits among this voting group. While Harris still leads Trump among women, her advantage has also narrowed. The gender gap which was 34 points one month ago is now 15 points.
- Harris (51%) is +4 points against Trump (47%) among likely voters nationally. Two percent support another party’s candidate. Two points separated Harris (50%) and Trump (48%) in the NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll in early October. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for President, 87% strongly support their choice of candidate.
- Trump (51%) has a slight lead against Harris (46%), among independents, comparable to what the two candidates received in early October.
- 55% of likely voters report they have already voted, and Harris receives 56% support among those who say they have done so. Trump (53%) has majority support among those who say they have yet to vote.
- Harris (63%) leads Trump (34%) by 29 points among non-white voters, up from the 21-point lead she had in early October. Trump (54%) is ahead of Harris (45%) by 9 points among white voters, similar to the 8-point lead he had last month.
- Gen Z and Millennials (56%) and Baby Boomers (55%) break for Harris. Trump (53%) receives majority support among the Silent/Greatest Generation. Members of Gen X divide (51% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
- The gender gap nationally has been cut by more than half. A 15-point gender gap now exists compared with 34 points in early October. Harris (47%) has carved into Trump's advantage (51%) among men. Now, only 4 points separate the two among these voters. Trump previously had a 16-point advantage among men. While Harris (55%) maintains a double-digit lead over Trump (44%) among women, her lead has decreased from 18 points.
"The 2024 Presidential Campaign has been full of unusual twists and turns," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Harris is well-positioned to carry the popular vote for president but needs to traverse a narrow pathway to achieve 270 in the Electoral College. Former President Trump's candidacy is being held back by his high negatives among likely voters."
Voters Divide About Who Will Win
Despite which candidate they have or plan to support, 49% of likely voters think Trump will win the election, and 46% believe Harris will be victorious.
55% of Likely Voters Have Already Voted
55% of likely voters say they have already voted including 24% who have already voted by mail and 31% who report they have voted in-person at an early voting location. 11% say they haven’t voted but plan to cast their ballot before Tuesday, and 34% say they will vote on Election Day.
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Key Electoral Issues Among Likely Voters
When thinking about voting, Americans likely to vote say the following issues are top of mind:
- 31% report preserving democracy is a motivating factor.
- 25% say inflation is their priority.
- 19% select immigration.
- 10% say the abortion issue is on their mind.
- Health care (7%), the war in the Middle East (3%), and crime (2%) follow.
Likely voters also share the issue they rank as the second, most-pressing issue when thinking about the election:
- 22% cite inflation.
- 20% say abortion.
- 18% mention immigration.
- Health care follows with 15%.
- 11% choose preserving democracy.
- Crime (9%) and the war in the Middle East (5%) follow.
Likely Voters Divide on Which Candidate Will Bring Change or Better Handle the Economy
50% of likely voters say Trump best represents change while 48% believe Harris is that candidate. Similarly, 50% perceive Trump as the candidate who can better deal with the economy, and 49% have this impression of Harris.
Majority Perceives Trump as Making Proposals He Will Carry Out… Voters Divide About Harris
A majority of likely voters (55%) say Trump is making proposals that he will carry out, if elected. 44% of likely voters, though, say he is running on proposals to get people to vote for him.
Likely voters divide in their impressions of Harris. 49% think Harris is proposing initiatives she will carry out if elected, while 49% think she is making promises to get votes.
Likely Voters’ Impressions of Harris on the Positive Side, But Trump Under Water
50% of likely voters have a favorable perception of Harris compared with 47% who have an unfavorable one. Trump’s ratings remain upside down. 45% of likely voters have a favorable impression of him, and a majority, 53%, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
Most Voters Think Their Candidate Should Accept Election Results
71% of likely voters say the candidate they support should accept the results of the election, even if their preferred candidate is said to have lost, including 59% of likely Republican voters. 27% want the candidate they support to challenge the results, if they do not win.
More Than Seven in Ten Likely Voters Worried About Post-Election Violence
72% of likely voters say they are either very concerned or concerned that violence will occur following the election. 28% are not very concerned or not concerned at all about this possibility. Majorities of Democrats (83%), Republicans (63%), and independents (65%) express concern about violence as a result of the election.
Democrats & Republicans Competitive on Generic Congressional Ballot
50% of likely voters say they are supporting the Democratic candidate running for Congress in their district. 48% say they are backing the Republican. Registered voters divide (48% for the Democratic candidate to 48% for the Republican candidate).
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down Nationally
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is at 43% among likely voters. 54% disapprove of how Biden is doing his job. 21% of likely voters strongly approve of how Biden is doing his job, and 46% strongly disapprove.
Among Americans, 40% approve of how Biden is performing in office while a majority (55%) disapprove. 44% of Americans strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance while 19% strongly approve.
Methodology
This survey of U.S. adults was conducted October 31st through November 2nd, 2024 by the Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,560) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,446) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,297) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.