September 26, 2024
U.S. Presidential Contest: Georgia, September 2024
Trump +1 Against Harris in Georgia
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are closely matched among likely voters in Georgia including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris edges Trump among independents and leads Trump among Black voters. Trump, though, has the advantage among whites. A 24-point gender gap exists, slightly widening the gender gap in Georgia from 2020.
Georgia is a tossup between Trump (50%) and Harris (49%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Most voters with a candidate preference for President (90%) strongly support their choice of candidate.
Harris (51%) leads Trump (46%) by 5 points among independents who are likely to vote. Biden carried independents by 9 points in 2020 according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.
Harris leads Trump among those who say they plan to vote at an early voting location (54% for Harris to 45% for Trump) and among those who say they will vote by mail or absentee ballot (62% for Harris to 35% for Trump). Trump (60%) is ahead of Harris (39%) among voters who expect to vote in-person on Election Day.
Trump (66%) outpaces Harris (34%) among white voters while Harris (86%) leads Trump (13%) among Black voters.
A 24-point gender gap exists. Harris (54%) leads Trump (44%) among women while Trump (56%) leads Harris (42%) among men. In 2020, a 21-point gender gap existed.
Harris is +6 points over Trump among GenZ/Millennials. Trump and Harris are competitive among older generations.
"Georgia was ground zero for election controversies in 2020. Yet, the overwhelming majority of Georgians express confidence that elections will be fair and accurate," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Interestingly, most Democrats and Republicans share this view despite the results last time."
Inflation is the Key Voting Issue in Georgia
When thinking about their vote for President, Georgia residents point to these issues:
- Inflation is top of mind for 34%, up from 24% in March.
- Preserving democracy follows with 24%.
- Immigration is a motivating factor for 13%, a decrease from 24%.
- 11% mention abortion.
- Health care (8%), crime (4%), and the war in the Middle East (4%) follow.
Honesty, Strength of Leadership, & Positions on the Issues Top Qualities in a Candidate
When deciding their vote for President, Georgia residents express the following preferences:
- 26% think a candidate who is honest and trustworthy is the most important quality.
- 23% prefer a candidate who is a strong leader.
- 21% say it is most important that a candidate reflects their positions on the issues.
- 16% want a candidate who shares their values.
- 11% desire a candidate who will bring about change.
- 3% think a candidate with experience is the most important.
Trump bests Harris among those who want a candidate who is closest to them on the issues or a candidate who is a strong leader. Harris does better among those who want a candidate who shares their values or one who is honest and trustworthy.
Most Voters will Cast a Ballot for President
98% of likely voters statewide say they will vote for President. Two percent think they will skip the presidential line and vote for other candidates and ballot measures.
Most Voters Have Made Up (and Will Not Change) Their Mind
81% of registered voters statewide say they already know for whom they plan to vote, and they will not change their mind. 14% have a good idea who they will support but might change their mind, and 5% have not decided upon a candidate. Nearly three in ten independents statewide have either not selected a candidate (9%) or might change their mind (20%) prior to Election Day.
Nearly Half Plan to Vote at an Early Voting Location
49% of registered voters say they will cast their ballot at an early voting location. 39% report they will cast their ballot in-person on Election Day, and 10% think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot.
Nearly Half View Harris Favorably; Divide About Trump… Vance’s Favorability Upside Down While Plurality Has Positive Impression of Walz
- Harris’ favorable rating is 49% favorable to 46% unfavorable.
- Trump is viewed positively by 48% while 48% view him negatively.
- Vance is viewed favorably by 39% while 42% have an unfavorable view of him, 19% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Vance.
- Walz has a positive score of 42% to 38% negative. 20% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Walz.
Congressional Generic Ballot Competitive in Georgia
Georgia registered voters divide about whether they will support the Republican candidate (50%) for Congress in their district or the Democratic candidate (48%) on the ballot.
Most Residents Think Georgia will Conduct Fair and Accurate Elections
72% of residents statewide are confident or very confident that Georgia will carry out fair and accurate elections this year. 28%, though, are not confident or not confident at all in the integrity of the election results in Georgia.
Biden Approval Rating Upside Down in Georgia
Biden’s approval rating among Georgia adults is 42%. His disapproval rating stands at 52%. 22% of adults statewide strongly approve of the job Biden is doing, and 44% strongly disapprove.
Methodology
This survey of 1,514 Georgia adults was conducted September 19th through September 24th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Georgia were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,514) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,420) are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,220) are statistically significant within ±3.9 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.