The Presidential Contest in New Hampshire

Marist New Hampshire Poll

Biden Would Best Trump, DeSantis in New Hampshire… Haley Would Edge Biden in the Granite State

In this Marist Poll of New Hampshire, President Joe Biden performs best against Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. However, Nikki Haley edges Biden by three points among the New Hampshire electorate. Against Trump, Biden is +7 percentage points, with both candidates receiving nearly the identical support they garnered in the 2020 presidential election. Biden’s lead opens up slightly, to 9 percentage points, against DeSantis.

Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, Donald Trump has a three-to-one favorable-unfavorable rating, the best among his rivals. He is also the candidate most Republicans and Republican leaning independents would be satisfied with as the GOP’s nominee. Conservative principles score higher than electability among these voters; inflation and immigration rank highest as issues; a wide majority believe the U.S. should focus on its own problems and not world events; and by more than two to one, these Republicans and Republican leaning independents believe former President Trump should be granted immunity.

2024 Presidential Matchup in NH
If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Source: Marist Poll New Hampshire Registered Voters. Interviews conducted January 15th through January 17th, 2024, n=1,157 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Biden (52%) leads Trump (45%) in a hypothetical general election contest among New Hampshire registered voters. Three percent are undecided.

  • Against DeSantis, Biden receives the support of 51% of New Hampshire registered voters to 42% for DeSantis. Seven percent are undecided.

  • Haley (47%) edges Biden (44%) among the New Hampshire electorate. Nine percent are undecided.

  • Against DeSantis and Trump, Biden receives at least 50% support among independents and even among those who somewhat disapprove of Biden’s job performance. However, Haley has majority support against Biden among both of these voting groups. Haley outpaces Biden by 14 points among independent voters and overwhelmingly carries New Hampshire voters who somewhat disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president (67% to 28%).

  • In a three-way contest including Biden, Trump, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the race is more competitive. Biden receives 44% of the New Hampshire electorate to 41% for Trump and 12% for Kennedy. Kennedy cuts mostly into Biden’s support, especially among independents.

"The popularity of the GOP candidates for Tuesday’s primary tells a very different story than how they would match up against Biden in November," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although Haley has the highest negative rating among GOP and Republican leaning independents, right now, she is the strongest Republican against Biden for carrying New Hampshire in the fall."

Biden and Trump’s Favorability Upside Down Among New Hampshire Residents, But…

A majority of New Hampshire residents (55%) have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and 40% have a favorable one. Perceptions of Trump are worse. 60% of New Hampshire adults have an unfavorable view of Trump compared with 37% who have a favorable one.

But, among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, Trump is most popular with a 75% favorable rating and only a 23% negative one. In fact, there is little difference between Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP in their perceptions of Trump. DeSantis is second, garnering a 53% positive rating and a 26% unfavorable one. Haley has the highest negative rating among this group with 38%, only seven points lower than her favorable rating at 45%. Of note, DeSantis and Haley are unknown or little known to 21% and 16% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents, respectively.

GOP Most Satisfied with Trump as Their Nominee

More than three in four New Hampshire Republicans and Republican leaning independents (77%) say they would be either very satisfied (56%) or satisfied (21%) with Trump as their party’s nominee. This compares with 60% who express high satisfaction (17%) or satisfaction (43%) with DeSantis atop the ticket. 55% of New Hampshire Republicans and Republican leaning independents report they would be very satisfied (16%) or satisfied (39%) with Nikki Haley as the nominee.

GOP Supporters Prioritize Conservative Principles over Electability

Nearly six in ten New Hampshire Republicans and Republican leaning independents (59%) say it is more important to select a candidate who will stand on conservative principles rather than choose a candidate who has the best chance of defeating Joe Biden in November (39%).

Preserving Democracy & Inflation Top Voting Issues in New Hampshire

When thinking about November’s elections, 32% of New Hampshire residents say preserving democracy is top of mind. Inflation follows with 26%. Immigration is the priority for 18% of adults statewide followed by abortion (11%), health care (9%), and crime (3%). Similar proportions of registered voters share these views.

While a majority of Democrats (53%) say the preservation of democracy is key, inflation (37%) and immigration (37%) top the list for Republicans. Among independents, a plurality (34%) selects preserving democracy. One in four independents (25%) mentions inflation.

Inflation (40%) is top of mind for Republicans and Republican leaning independents. Immigration follows with 33%.

A Divide over U.S. Role in the World Exists

Half of New Hampshire residents (50%) believe the U.S. should focus on its own problems and play less of a leadership role in the world. 49% say that it is crucial for the U.S. to play a major leadership role in world events. Among registered voters, 52% believe it is critical for the U.S. to serve as a leader globally. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, 64% say the U.S. should focus on its own problems.

Immunity for Trump? Depends on Who You Ask

Nearly two thirds of New Hampshire residents (65%) do not think Trump should receive immunity from criminal prosecution for actions he took as president. However, 65% of New Hampshire Republicans and Republican leaning independents think he should receive immunity.

Generic Congressional Ballot Competitive in New Hampshire

New Hampshire registered voters divide about the candidate they plan to support in November’s congressional elections. 48% say they would support the Republican in their district while 47% expect to vote for the Democrat.

New Hampshire Residents Express Confidence that a Fair Election Will Take Place

79% of New Hampshire residents, including 80% of registered voters statewide, are either very confident or confident that their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election in November.

Biden’s Job Approval Rating at 38% in New Hampshire

Biden’s job performance in the Granite State is upside down. 38% of residents statewide approve of the job he is doing while 56% disapprove. Biden, though, fares slightly better among registered voters. 41% approve, and 55% disapprove. New Hampshire residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (44%) of Biden’s job performance than strongly approve (19%).