The Battleground 2024: Georgia

Marist Georgia Poll

Trump Edges Biden by 4 Percentage Points in Georgia

In Georgia, where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump by about two-tenths of a percentage point in 2020, Trump now edges Biden by four points among Georgia registered voters in this year’s presidential re-match. Among those who plan to definitely vote, three points separate Trump and Biden. Since 2020, Trump has gained ground among younger voters in the state. While Biden retains a wide lead over Trump among Black voters, Trump has made significant inroads among these voters.

Presidential Contest in Georgia
If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards]:
Source: Marist Poll Georgia Registered Voters. Interviews conducted March 11th through March 14th, 2024, n=1,177 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Trump (51%) edges Biden (47%) by four percentage points among Georgia registered voters. Among those who plan to definitely vote, three percentage points separate Trump (51%) and Biden (48%).

  • Independents divide, 49% for Biden to 48% for Trump.

  • Compared with the Exit Polls of the 2020 General Election results, Trump has gained support among younger Americans. He is now +5 percentage points over Biden among those 18 to 29. Biden carried this age group in 2020 by 13 percentage points. Among those 30 to 44, Biden is +2 percentage points against Trump. Biden carried these voters by 10 percentage points in 2020.

  • While Biden (75%) has a significant lead against Trump (24%) among Black voters in Georgia, Biden carried this group by 77 percentage points in 2020.

  • In a three-candidate field, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump (45%) has a five-percentage point edge against Biden (40%). Kennedy receives 14% of the Georgia electorate. Kennedy has yet to qualify to be on the ballot in Georgia.

“Georgia has been ground zero for Trump’s legal problems dating back to the 2020 election. Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Despite all the attention focused on the state’s vote count in 2020, more than six in ten Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”

Biden’s Approval Rating Upside Down in Georgia

52% of Georgia residents disapprove of the job Biden is doing in office. 41% approve. In November 2022, 56% disapproved of how Biden was doing his job, and 38% approved.

By nearly two to one, Georgia adults strongly disapprove (42%) of Biden’s job performance rather than strongly approve (22%).

Trump Perceived More Favorably Than Biden… RFK Jr. Lesser Known

Georgia residents divide about their impressions of Trump. 47% perceive the former president favorably while 48% view him unfavorably. While 40% of Georgia residents have a positive view of Biden, 52% have a negative impression of the president. Kennedy suffers from low name recognition in the state. 33% have a favorable opinion of him, 28% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 39% have either never heard of Kennedy or are unsure how to rate him.

Biden’s Mental Fitness is More of a Concern Than Trump’s

Nearly six in ten adults statewide (59%), including 28% of Democrats, say Biden’s mental fitness is a real concern when it comes to his ability to carry out his duties in a second term. 38% think the attention to the president’s mental acumen is a campaign strategy used by Biden’s opponents. While opinions fall along party lines, 59% of independents express concern about Biden’s mental competency if re-elected.

In contrast, 51% of Georgia residents think the focus placed on Trump’s mental fitness is a political tactic, while 46% say Trump’s mental ability to be president is a genuine concern. 71% of Democrats and 51% of independents think Trump’s mental fitness is a real issue. 77% of Republicans say it is a campaign strategy being used against Trump.

State of the Union Had Little Impact on Georgians’ Confidence in Biden

President Biden’s State of the Union Address earlier this month made more than six in ten Democrats (62%) more confident in Biden’s ability but had less of an effect, overall, in Georgia. 30% of Georgia residents say they have more confidence in Biden. 32% say the speech made them less confident, and 37% said it made no difference in their level of confidence in the president. Among Republicans, 61% said the speech made them less confident in Biden while 48% of independents said it did not change their impression of him.

More Than Seven in Ten Georgians Perceive Wrongdoing in Trump’s Actions

71% of Georgians say Trump has either done something illegal (44%) or unethical but not illegal (27%). Driven by a majority of Republicans (53%), 27% of Georgians believe Trump did nothing wrong. Most Democrats (80%) and a plurality of independents (49%) think Trump broke the law. An additional 32% of independents believe Trump engaged in unethical behavior.

Nearly six in ten Georgians (59%), including 84% of Democrats and 70% of independents, do not think Trump should receive immunity from criminal prosecution for actions he took while president. 39% of residents statewide believe he should. This includes 72% of Republicans.

A majority of Georgia residents (53%) think the investigations into the former president are fair and are intended to find out if he broke the law. 47% say the investigations are unfair and a means to get in the way of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.

Preserving Democracy, Immigration, and Inflation Top 2024 Voting Issues

One in four Georgia adults (25%) say preserving democracy is top of mind when thinking about voting in November’s elections. 24% mention immigration, 24% cite inflation, and 10% highlight health care. Eight percent of Georgia residents say abortion is their top voting issue while 7% mention crime.

Preserving democracy is the priority for 40% of Georgia Democrats and 32% of independents. A plurality of Republicans (46%) say immigration is top of mind when thinking about November’s elections.

Trump Strongest on Economy and Immigration… Biden Viewed Better on Abortion

When thinking about the issues, majorities of Georgia residents perceive Trump to be the candidate who would better handle the economy (57%) and immigration (56%). However, a majority of Georgians (51%) say Biden would better handle the issue of abortion. Residents statewide divide about who would better handle preserving democracy. 50% think Biden is the stronger candidate while 49% believe Trump is better equipped to handle the issue.

Republicans with Slight Edge in Congressional Elections

Half of Georgia registered voters (50%) say they are more likely to vote for the Republican congressional candidate in their district rather than the Democrat (47%) on the ballot. Independents break, 48% for the Republican candidate to 43% for the Democratic candidate.

Nearly Seven in Ten Georgians Confident in the Integrity of Elections

69% of Georgia residents are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out a fair and accurate election, including 34% who say they are very confident in the state’s electoral process. Democrats (81%) are more likely than independents (70%) and Republicans (62%) to be very confident or confident in Georgia’s ability to hold fair elections this year.

Majority of Georgia Residents Want the U.S. to Focus on the Homefront

53% of Georgians say, when thinking about the role of the United States in the world, the U.S. should focus on its own problems and play less of a leadership role around the world. 46% think it is crucial for the U.S. to play a major role in world events. A majority of Democrats (56%) prefer a strong global presence while a majority of Republicans (62%) prefer to focus on domestic issues. Independents divide. 48% think the U.S. should play a major international role while 51% think the nation should focus on its own matters.