June 21, 2023
The 2024 Presidential Candidates
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll
GOP Principles Top Electability in 2024, Say Republicans
While Republicans grapple with the controversy surrounding former President Donald Trump, more than six in ten Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they think it is more important that their party’s candidate stand on conservative principles rather than be the most electable candidate against President Joe Biden. Looking at the crowded field of GOP hopefuls, Trump eclipses the field in terms of favorability. On the Democratic side, more than eight in ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a favorable view of Biden, dwarfing his Democratic challengers.
63% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say it is more important that the 2024 Republican nominee stand on conservative principles rather than have the best chance to defeat President Joe Biden (35%) in the presidential contest.
76% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable opinion of Trump, up from 68% in February. Ron DeSantis, Trump’s chief rival for the Republican nomination, receives a favorable rating of 67%, nearly identical to the score he received in February. Tim Scott (50%) is the only other Republican hopeful whose favorability rating hits 50%.
45% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have a favorable opinion of Mike Pence, down from 51% a few months ago. Pence’s negatives are up (41% from 30% previously). Nikki Haley receives a favorable rating of 41%, unchanged from February. As Haley has become better known to the GOP, her negative rating, though, has nearly doubled (23% from 12%). Yet, Chris Christie has the highest negative score of the field. 50% have an unfavorable view of Christie, and 22% have a favorable view of him.
Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Doug Burgum suffer from low name recognition. Of note, Hutchinson’s negative score (23%) is more than double his positive rating (9%), and Ramaswamy’s favorable rating (33%) outperforms that of Christie, Hutchinson, and Burgum.
83% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a favorable impression of Biden, unchanged from February. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives a favorable rating of 35%. 34% have an unfavorable view of him, and 31% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate him. Fewer than one in five (18%) Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has a favorable impression of Marianne Williamson. 23% have an unfavorable view of her, and 59% have either never heard of Williamson or are unsure how to rate her.
"Republicans want their party to stay true to its core, conservative principles," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Electability may emerge as an important factor down the road when the nominees for both parties are in place. But right now, it’s not Republicans’ top priority."
Biden Approval Rating Steady at 45%
45% of Americans, including 86% of Democrats, approve of the job President Biden is doing in office. 49% of U.S. residents, including 57% of independents and 89% of Republicans, disapprove. 23% of U.S. residents strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, and 38% strongly disapprove.
Majority Opposes Overturn of Roe v. Wade
Nearly one year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, opinions about the decision remain unchanged. 57% of Americans oppose the Court’s decision while 40% support it. Public opinion has moved little on this question since the decision came down in June of 2022.
Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Continues to Wane
39% of Americans have either a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, little changed from a low of 37% in April. 59% of Americans have not very much or no confidence at all in the Supreme Court.
Majority of Americans Support Affirmative Action Programs
57% of Americans think affirmative action programs in hiring, promoting, and college admissions should be continued. 38% think these programs should be abolished.
Partisan differences are present. 78% of Democrats report affirmative action programs should remain in place while 58% of Republicans say they should be eliminated. Independents divide. 50% of independents think affirmative action should continue. 46% say they should be abolished.
Fewer than One in Four Americans Say Gender Transition-Related Healthcare Should be Completely Banned
A plurality of Americans (45%) say only adults who are 18 years of age or older should be able to receive gender transition-related healthcare. 31% think Americans 18 or older and minors with parental consent should be permitted to receive gender transition-related healthcare. 23% say no one should be allowed access to gender transition-related healthcare, regardless of age.
While a majority of Republicans (52%) would limit access to gender transition-related healthcare to adults over 18, nearly four in ten (37%) would ban it completely. A majority of Democrats (51%) support gender transition-related healthcare for adults over the age of 18 and minors who have the consent of a parent or guardian. An additional 34% of Democrats support this healthcare for adults over the age of 18 only.
61% of Americans, up from 51% in May of 2022, say defining gender as the sex listed on a person’s original birth certificate is the only way to define male and female in society. 36%, down from 42%, say this definition of gender is antiquated and needs to be updated to include identity.