The 2022 Elections in Pennsylvania

Marist Pennsylvania Poll

Fetterman Leads Oz in U.S. Senate Race in PA, Shapiro Outpaces Mastriano in Governor’s Race

In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman has a 10-point lead over Mehmet Oz among registered voters statewide. Fetterman’s lead narrows to 7 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. In the governor’s race, Democrat Josh Shapiro is ahead of Republican Doug Mastriano by double-digits among registered voters. Shapiro also has a strong advantage among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

U.S. Senate Race in PA
In November's election for U.S. Senate, are you supporting: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards: ]
Source: Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters. Interviews conducted September 19th through September 22nd, 2022, n=1,242 MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100%.
  • Democrat John Fetterman (51%) has a 10-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz (41%) in the contest for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, among registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Fetterman’s lead narrows to seven points (51% for Fetterman to 44% for Oz) among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

  • Fetterman (55%) leads Oz (33%) by 22 points among independents. A notable 11% are undecided. Fetterman is ahead of Oz among most demographic groups. Notable exceptions are Republicans, white Evangelical Christians, white voters without a college education, and voters living in rural areas.

  • 65% of registered voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice. Fetterman’s backers (70%) are more likely than Oz’s backers (58%) to express a strong commitment to their candidate.

  • A plurality of adults (45%) has a favorable impression of Fetterman while 39% have an unfavorable one. Oz’s favorable rating is upside down (30% favorable to 51% unfavorable). Close to one in five residents have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Fetterman (17%) or Oz (19%).

  • Pennsylvania registered voters divide about whether they are more likely to support the Democrat (48%) running for Congress in their district this midterm election or the Republican (46%). Among those who definitely plan to vote, 50% say they plan to support the Democrat on the ballot, and 47% expect to back the Republican candidate.

"What is particularly unusual in these numbers, is that, with still six weeks to go, most voters have already picked sides," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Few Keystone voters are undecided or say they support a candidate but might vote differently."

Shapiro with Double-Digit Lead over Mastriano in Governor’s Race

Democrat Josh Shapiro (53%) leads Republican Doug Mastriano (40%) by 13 points among registered voters statewide. Shapiro (54%) has a comparable lead over Mastriano (42%) among those who definitely plan to vote.

67% of registered voters with a candidate preference for governor strongly support their choice, including 70% of Shapiro’s supporters and 63% of Mastriano’s backers.

A plurality of Pennsylvanians (47%) has a favorable view of Shapiro while a similar plurality (45%) has an unfavorable view of Mastriano. About one in four adults say they have never heard of or are unsure how to rate these candidates.

Inflation is Top Voting Issue in Pennsylvania

When thinking about midterm elections, 40% of Pennsylvania adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind. Preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%) follow.

A majority of Republicans (56%) cite inflation as their key voting issue while preserving democracy is the top issue for Democrats (40%). Among independents, 38% mention inflation while 36% cite preserving democracy.

More than Seven in Ten Voters Say They Will Vote on Election Day

75% of registered voters in the state say they will head to the polls on Election Day. 20% think they will vote by mail or by absentee ballot. Only 3% report they will cast a ballot at an early voting location.

Election Day voting is the preferred method of casting a ballot for Democrats (65%), Republicans (89%), and independents (72%). Democrats (29%) are more than three times as likely as Republicans (9%) to report they will vote by mail or by absentee ballot.

About Two in Three Pennsylvanians Confident in Election System

66% of adults say they are either very confident or confident in their state or local government to run a fair and accurate election. 33% express not very much or no confidence in the process. But there is a wide partisan divide. Democrats (92%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (42%) to express confidence in the election process.

Biden’s Job Approval Rating at 42%

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in the state is upside down. 42% of Pennsylvanians approve to 52% who disapprove. By more than two-to-one, adults statewide are more likely to strongly disapprove (42%) of Biden’s job performance than to strongly approve (19%).