October 24, 2022
The 2022 Elections in Ohio
Marist Ohio Poll
Vance & Ryan Competitive in Ohio Senate Race… DeWine Outpaces Whaley in Governor’s Contest
Only one point separates Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio among registered voters. The two are tied among those who say they will definitely vote in November’s election. The Republicans are well-positioned, though, to retain the Ohio statehouse. Republican Governor Mike DeWine leads his Democratic challenger Nan Whaley by 13 points among Ohio registered voters. DeWine retains his advantage over Whaley among those who say they will definitely vote in November.
Vance (46%) and Ryan (45%) are well-matched among registered voters statewide. This is unchanged from a similar Marist Ohio poll in September. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, Vance (47%) and Ryan (47%) are tied.
Among independents, Vance (41%) and Ryan (41%) are also tied. A notable 16% of independents are undecided.
63% of Ohio voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate say they strongly support their choice. 64% of Ryan’s supporters and 62% of Vance’s backers report a firm level of commitment for their candidate.
37% of Ohio residents have a favorable opinion of Ryan. 36% have an unfavorable view of him, up from 25%. A notable 27% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Ryan. Ohioans’ views of Vance remain upside down. 34% have a favorable view of Vance. 41% have an unfavorable impression of him, also up from 36%. 26% have either never heard of or are unsure how to rate Vance.
The Republican candidates (49%) running for Congress are ahead of the Democratic candidates (42%) among Ohio registered voters. Ohio’s GOP had a similar lead in September (+6 points). Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, the Republicans (52%) achieve majority support and have a 9-point lead statewide over their Democratic rivals (43%).
"This open seat in Ohio has attracted national attention because it is so competitive," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although both candidates have become more disliked since Marist’s poll last month, there are still about one in four voters who have yet to form an opinion."
DeWine with Double-Digit Lead in Ohio’s Gubernatorial Race
Republican incumbent Governor Mike DeWine (53%) has a 13-point lead over Democratic challenger Nan Whaley (40%) among registered voters statewide. DeWine’s lead was 18 points in September. Among those who say they will definitely vote, DeWine (54%) is ahead of Whaley (41%) by the same margin.
53% of Ohio voters with a candidate preference for governor strongly support their choice, notched down from 57% last month.
56% of Whaley’s supporters and 51% of DeWine’s backers report they strongly support their candidate. While DeWine’s intensity of support among his backers is little changed, fewer Whaley supporters are strongly in her camp. 67% in September reported they were firmly committed to her.
DeWine is well-liked by nearly half (48%) of Ohio residents while 36% have an unfavorable view of him. In September, DeWine’s favorable score was 54% to 32% unfavorable. Whaley continues to suffer from low name recognition. 40%, comparable to 42% in September, have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate Whaley. 28% have a favorable view of Whaley while 33% have an unfavorable one.
Plurality Considers Inflation Key in Midterm Election Vote
46% of Ohio adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind this election season. Preserving democracy (20%), abortion, (18%), health care (6%), crime (4%), and immigration (4%) follow.
Inflation is the key voting issue for Republicans (62%) and independents (53%). Among Democrats, abortion (34%) and preserving democracy (30%) top the list. 22% of Democrats are most concerned about inflation.
Majority of Ohio Voters Expect to Vote In-person on Election Day
54% of Ohio registered voters, including 57% of definite voters, say they plan to go to the polls on Election Day. 29% expect to vote before Election Day. Nine percent report they have already voted by mail while 4% say they have already cast their ballot at an early voting location. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will vote on Election Day while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to report they have either already voted or plan to vote prior to Election Day.
Nearly Eight in Ten Residents Confident in Ohio Election Security
78% of Ohio residents are either confident or very confident in their state or local government’s ability to conduct a fair and accurate election. 21% have little or no confidence in the system.
President Biden’s Approval Rating in Ohio
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is upside down among Ohioans. 37% approve, and 57% disapprove. In September, Biden’s approval rating was 38%, with 53% saying they disapproved of how Biden was doing his job. Ohio residents are currently more than three times as likely to strongly disapprove (46%) of Biden’s job performance than to strongly approve (15%).