November 1, 2024
Marist Wisconsin Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Wisconsin, November 2024
Harris +2 Points Against Trump in Wisconsin
Two points separate Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump among Wisconsin likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has slightly widened her lead among independents. Trump and Harris are competitive among white voters. Harris leads Trump among non-white voters but underperforms the support President Joe Biden garnered 4 years ago. A 21-point gender gap exists in Wisconsin, comparable to the 23-point gap that existed in 2020, according to the 2020 Presidential Exit Poll.
- Harris (50%) is +2 points against Trump (48%) among Wisconsin likely voters. In September, one point separated Harris (50%) and Trump (49%). 88% of likely voters with a candidate preference for President say they strongly support their choice of candidate.
- Harris (51%) is ahead of Trump (45%) by six points among independents. This compares with the four-point edge she had in early September but still is well below the double-digit lead President Joe Biden (54%) had against Trump (42%) among independents in 2020.
- Trump (50%) and Harris (48%) are closely matched among white voters. Trump (52%) carried white voters by 6 points against Biden (46%) in 2020. Among non-white voters, Harris (63%) outdistances Trump (36%). But, in 2020, Biden received the support of 73% of non-white voters.
- Harris (57%) leads Trump (43%) among those who say they have already voted. Trump (53%), though, leads Harris (45%) among those who have yet to cast a ballot.
- Harris receives majority support among Gen Z and Millennials (53%), Baby Boomers (58%), and the Silent/Greatest Generation (52%). Trump garners majority support among Gen X (54%).
- A 21-point gender gap exists. Harris (55%) leads Trump (43%) among women while Trump (53%) has the advantage over Harris (44%) among men.
"The competitiveness of Wisconsin in the presidential contest is driven by the weaker traction Harris has against Trump among independents compared with Biden four years ago. But this may be offset by the widest gender gap of the Rustbelt States found here," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "The road to the majority in the Senate may go through Wisconsin where Baldwin's narrow edge is largely owed to her challengers high negative rating."
Majority of Likely Voters Have Voted or Plan to Vote Early
53% of likely voters in Wisconsin say they have already voted or plan to vote before Election Day including 19% who have done so by mail, 23% who have already voted in-person at an early voting location, and 11% who intend to do so before Election Day. 46% say they will vote in-person on Election Day.
Inflation & Preserving Democracy Top Voting Issues
When thinking about voting in the election, Wisconsin residents say the following issues are top of mind:
- 28% say inflation is a key issue.
- 28% say preserving democracy is a priority.
- 19% report immigration is a key motivator.
- 12% say abortion issue is a key voting issue.
- Health care (7%), the war in the Middle East (3%), and crime (3%) follow.
Trump Viewed as Stronger on Economy, Immigration, & War in Middle East… Harris Perceived as Stronger on Abortion Issue & Preserving Democracy
- 52% of residents say Trump, not Harris (47%), would better handle the economy.
- 55% say Trump is stronger on dealing with immigration. 44% have this view of Harris.
- 53% believe Trump, not Harris (46%), would better deal with the war in the Middle East.
- 54% of residents think Harris would better handle the issue of abortion. 44% believe Trump is the stronger candidate on the issue.
- 52% say Harris would better deal with preserving democracy. 48% have this view of Trump.
Trump & Harris with Identical Upside-Down Ratings
- Harris’ favorable rating is 46% to 51% unfavorable among Wisconsin residents.
- 46% of adults in the state have a favorable view of Trump while 51% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Baldwin +3 Points Against Hovde in U.S. Senate Race in Wisconsin
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin (51%) edges her Republican challenger Eric Hovde (48%) among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 77% of likely voters with a candidate preference for U.S. Senate strongly support their choice of candidate. This includes 81% of Baldwin’s supporters and 73% of Hovde supporters.
Hovde with Upside Down Favorable Rating… Residents Divide About Baldwin
- 37% of residents have a favorable opinion of Hovde while 48% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 15% have either never heard of Hovde or are unsure how to rate him.
- 45% have a positive impression of Baldwin, and 46% have a negative one. Nine percent have either never heard of Baldwin or are unsure how to rate her.
Generic Congressional Ballot Competitive in Wisconsin
49% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district while the same proportion (49%) say they plan to support the Republican. Support is identical among registered voters statewide. In September, the Democrats (50%) held a 3-point edge against the Republicans (47%) among registered voters.
Biden’s Approval Rating Upside Down
41% of Wisconsin adults approve of the job Biden is doing in office, and 55% disapprove. Residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job (45%) than to strongly approve (21%).
Methodology
This survey of 1,549 Wisconsin adults was conducted October 27th through October 30th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Wisconsin were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,549) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,444) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,330) are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.