November 1, 2024
Marist Michigan Poll: U.S. Presidential Contest in Michigan, November 2024
Harris +3 Over Trump in Michigan
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Donald Trump by 3 points among Michigan likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Harris has widened her lead among independents. She also continues to outpace Trump among women and Black voters. While Harris nearly matches the support President Joe Biden received among women in 2020, she continues to fall short of the support he received among Black voters. Trump maintains his edge against Harris among white voters and men. However, the margin among white voters is markedly narrower than the 11 points by which Trump carried these voters four years ago.
- Harris (51%) has the edge against Trump (48%) among Michigan likely voters. In September, Harris (52%) was +5 points against Trump (47%). Among likely voters with a candidate preference for President, 86% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Included here are 87% of Harris’ supporters and 85% of Trump’s backers who say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
- Among independent voters, Harris has opened up a lead. She receives 52% to 46% for Trump. In early September, independent voters divided (49% for Harris to 47% for Trump). In 2020, Biden (51%) won independents by 6 points against Trump (45%), according to the 2020 Exit Polls.
- 63% of those who say they have already voted support Harris while 59% who say they have yet to vote say they are for Trump.
- Trump (51%) only edges Harris (48%) among white voters, falling short of the 11-point margin (55% to 44%) he had over Biden in 2020. Among Black voters in Michigan, Harris receives 75% to 25% for Trump. Despite Harris' wide lead among Black voters, she currently underperforms what Biden (92%) achieved in 2020.
- The gender gap is now 17 points. Although Harris (55%) leads Trump (44%) among women, she is shy of the 14-point margin Biden achieved over Trump in 2020. Trump (52%) leads Harris (46%) by 6 points among men. He too is currently falling short of the 10-point lead he achieved against Biden in 2020.
- Harris receives majority support among GenZ and Millennials (53%), GenX (53%), and Baby Boomers (53%). However, Trump receives majority support among the Silent/Greatest Generation (51%).
"Driving the presidential numbers in Michigan is that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than Trump," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Trump's favorability rating is upside down. His negative rating significantly exceeds his positive score."
Nearly Two in Three Likely Voters Have or Expect to Vote Early
65% of likely voters either have or intend to cast their ballot before next Tuesday. This includes 32% who report they have already voted by mail, 18% who have already voted in-person at an early voting location, and 15% who plan to vote before Election Day. 35% of Michigan likely voters say they plan to vote in-person on Election Day.
Inflation and Preserving Democracy Key Voting Issues for Michigan Residents
When thinking about voting, Michigan residents say the following are top of mind:
- 30% think inflation is a key voting issue.
- 30% say preserving democracy is top of mind.
- 14% say the abortion issue is a priority.
- 14% cite immigration.
- Health care (6%), the war in the Middle East (3%), and crime (3%) follow.
Harris Viewed Stronger than Trump on Abortion & Preserving Democracy… Residents Divide About the Economy, Immigration, & the War in Middle East
- Harris (58%), not Trump (40%), is perceived to be the candidate who would better deal with the issue of abortion.
- Harris (54%) is also thought to be the candidate who would better handle preserving democracy. 45% have this view of Trump.
- 51% of residents think Trump would better handle immigration. 48% have this opinion of Harris.
- 50% think Trump, not Harris (49%), would better handle the U.S. economy.
- 50% say Trump would better deal with the war in the Middle East. This compares with 48% who think Harris is stronger on this issue.
Trump with Upside Down Favorability… Residents Divide About Harris
- 43% of residents have a favorable opinion of Trump compared with 53% who have an unfavorable view of him.
- 48% have a positive opinion of Harris while 47% have a negative view of her.
Six Points Separate Slotkin and Rogers in U.S. Senate Race in Michigan
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (52%) is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers (46%) in the race for U.S. Senate in Michigan among likely voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. This is little changed from the previous poll when Slotkin (52%) led Rogers (45%) by 7 points. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for Senate, 70% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. Slotkin’s supporters (74%) are more strongly committed to her than Rogers’ backers (65%) are to him.
Rogers Favorability Upside Down… Plurality with Positive View of Slotkin
- 34% of residents have a favorable view of Rogers while 45% have an unfavorable impression of him. 22% have either never heard of Rogers or are unsure how to rate him.
- 42% have a positive opinion of Slotkin. 38% have a negative view of her, and 20% have either never heard of Slotkin or are unsure how to rate her.
Of note, the negative ratings for both Slotkin and Rogers have increased since September.
Democrats +1 Point on Generic Congressional Ballot
50% of likely voters statewide say they are supporting the Democratic candidate running for Congress in their district. 49% say they are backing the Republican candidate for Congress. Among registered voters, though, the Democratic candidate (51%) is plus 3 points (48%) against the Republican candidate running for Congress. In September, registered voters divided, 49% for the Democratic congressional candidate and 49% for the Republican congressional candidate.
Biden Approval Rating at 41% among Michigan Residents
41% of Michigan residents approve of the job Biden is doing in office while a majority (53%) disapprove. 22% of residents strongly approve of how Biden is performing in office while 43% strongly disapprove.
Methodology
This survey of 1,429 Michigan adults was conducted October 27th through October 30th, 2024 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Michigan were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for all adults (n=1,429) are statistically significant within ±3.2 percentage points. Results for registered voters (n=1,356) are statistically significant within ±3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters (n=1,214) are statistically significant within ±3.5 percentage points. Likely voters include registered voters who report they are definitely voting in this year’s election.