July 23, 2024
Election 2024: What’s Next?
Trump and Harris Competitive Nationally… Most Dems Say Harris Should be Nominee
In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are competitive among the national electorate. In a multicandidate field which includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver, Trump and Harris tie. Democrats have fallen in line behind Harris with more than three in four saying Harris should be their party’s nominee. There is less consensus as to who the Democratic candidate for Vice President should be. As for Biden, most Americans agree with the president’s decision to step aside, and a plurality thinks Biden’s exit will bolster the Democrats’ chances of winning.
Among registered voters nationally head-to-head, Trump receives 46% to 45% for Harris. Nine percent are undecided. Independents break 46% for Trump to 32% for Harris. 21% of independents are undecided.
In a multicandidate field, Harris (42%) and Trump (42%) tie among the national electorate. Kennedy receives 7%. Support for West (1%) and Stein (1%) is in low single digits. Less than 1% support Oliver.
77% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Harris should be the party’s nominee. 22% think the Democrats should find someone else to challenge Harris.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Gretchen Whitmer (21%) and Pete Buttigieg (21%) top the list of potential Democrats in the Veepstakes. Josh Shapiro follows with 17%. Mark Kelly receives 13% to 8% for Roy Cooper and 7% for J.B. Pritzker. Andy Beshear (6%) and Wes Moore (6%) follow.
"Looking at the toplines after all that’s transpired this month, even though the names have changed, the contest for president all looks very familiar," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "But drilling down into the numbers tells a different story as more voters are undecided and others may be rethinking their choice."
Harris and Trump with Upside Down Favorable Ratings; Vance with High Unsure
- 40% of residents nationally have a favorable view of Harris to 44% unfavorable. 15% have either never heard of Harris or are unsure how to rate her.
- 43% have a favorable impression of Trump to 49% unfavorable. Eight percent are unsure.
- 28% of Americans have a favorable opinion of J.D. Vance to 31% unfavorable. 41% have either never heard of Vance or are unsure how to rate him.
Americans Agree with Biden’s Decision; Plurality Believe Dems are in Stronger Position
- 87% of Americans think Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race was the right thing to do. 12% believe it was the wrong thing to do.
- 41% of Americans, including 65% of Democrats, think Biden’s decision increases the Democrats’ chances of winning in November. 24% say his decision decreases their odds, and 34% say it makes no difference.
- 35% of Americans say Biden’s decision has made them more likely to vote in November. Six percent say they are now less likely to do so, and 59%, including 48% of Democrats, say it makes no difference.
- 68% of Americans, including 47% of Republicans, think Biden should finish his term in office. 32% say he should resign now.
Biden’s Legacy
- Driven by stark partisan differences, 31% of Americans think Biden will be remembered as one of the worst U.S. presidents. 19% say his legacy will be below average, and 23% say Biden will be considered an average president. 13% believe Biden will be thought of as one of the best presidents, and 14% say he will be considered an above average president.
- 41% of Americans approve of President Biden’s job performance. 51% disapprove. Eight percent are unsure. 24% of Americans strongly approve of the job Biden is doing while 36% strongly disapprove.