April 3, 2024
2024 Presidential Election
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll
Biden Plus 2 Percentage Points Over Trump, But Conventional Wisdom Comes into Question
With just two points separating President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump among registered voters nationally, the major party candidates are closely matched for the 2024 presidential contest. However, the dynamics driving the race are taking an unanticipated turn. While six in ten voters say they know for whom they will vote and will not waver, about four in ten say they have not chosen a candidate or could change their mind. Biden’s supporters are slightly firmer in their support for Biden than are Trump’s backers.
Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are competitive among national registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Trump (52%) is +7 percentage points over Biden (45%) among independents.
60% of registered voters nationally say they know for whom they will vote, and nothing can change their mind. However, about four in ten can be persuaded, including 29% who say they have a good idea for whom they will vote but could still switch to another candidate and 12% who have not made up their minds. 63% of Biden’s supporters, compared with 59% of Trump’s supporters, say their vote is solid.
In a multi-candidate field, Biden receives 43% to 41% for Trump among registered voters including leaners. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (11%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support. Independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receive 1% and 2%, respectively. Independents break 38% for Trump to 33% for Biden and 21% for Kennedy. Three percent of independents support West, and 3% back Stein.
Biden’s approval rating among adults nationally is 43%, notched up from 40% in February. A majority (53%) disapprove. While 24% strongly approve of how the president is doing his job, 41% strongly disapprove.
Though still upside down, Biden’s favorable rating (44%) among U.S. residents is his highest since March 2021 (52%). 51% of Americans currently have an unfavorable view of Biden. Trump’s favorable rating (39%) is also upside down, with 55% of U.S. residents having a negative view of him. However, his score has changed little from February (40% favorable to 55% unfavorable).
"The presidential contest remains close, but there are some interesting twists which run counter to the conventional wisdom," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Three points to note: first, about four in ten voters are not rock solid in their choice for president; second, Biden supporters are slightly more locked in; and third, Democrats are more cohesive in their positions on the issues."
Americans are More United Than Divided
Common ground exists among many Americans on the issues dominating the political discourse. Most Americans acknowledge having friends with different political beliefs than their own (81%). Americans are also united in their agreement that corporate greed is a major cause of inflation (72%), Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election (71%), and the American Dream is still attainable (68%).
Consensus also exists in Americans’ opposition to legal action against those who have had an abortion (84%), to the use of violence to get the nation back on track (79%), the granting of immunity to a president for crimes committed during his Presidency (75%), and the influence of religion on government policy (75%).
Less cohesion exists on questions of whether America is too politically correct, deporting all immigrants who came the country illegally, whether discrimination against white people has become as problematic as discrimination against Black Americans, whether a leader who is a “rule breaker” is needed to redirect the nation, and ownership of military-style assault weapons.
Democrats are More Cohesive in Their Priorities Than Republicans
Most Democrats agree that Biden won the 2020 election (97%), corporate greed is a major cause of inflation (89%), they have friends with different political views (78%), and the American Dream is still attainable (73%).
Democrats are united in their opposition to legally punishing someone who has had an abortion (89%), resorting to violence to get the country on track (87%), permitting ownership of military-style assault weapons (85%), allowing religion to play a role in policy making (84%), and providing immunity to a president for crimes committed while in office (81%). There is also consensus that discrimination against white people is not as problematic as discrimination against Black Americans (78%), that all immigrants who came to the country illegally should not be deported (76%), and a leader who is willing to break some of the rules to get the nation back on track is not the answer (72%).
In contrast, while Republicans coalesce on some issues, they are less cohesive than Democrats. Republicans agree that all immigrants who came to the country illegally should be deported (84%), they have friends with different political views (81%), discrimination against white people is as problematic as discrimination against Black Americans (77%), and the Americans Dream is still attainable (68%). They are also united in their opposition to legal consequences for someone who has had an abortion (79%) and that Americans may have to resort to violence to get the country back on track (70%).
They are less united on the questions of allowing ownership of military-style assault weapons (62% agree to 37% disagree), the need for a leader who is willing to break rules to get the nation back on track (56% agree to 43% disagree), whether corporate greed is a major cause of inflation (57% agree to 41% disagree), permitting religion to play a role in government policy (40% agree to 58% disagree), recognizing Biden as the legitimate winner of the 2020 election (38% agree to 61% disagree), and granting immunity to a president who has committed crimes while in office (34% agree to 63% disagree).
Immigration, Discrimination, & Guns Among Issues Dividing Independents
Most independents acknowledge having friendships with people of different political views (87%). They also agree that Joe Biden won the 2020 election (72%), corporate greed is a major cause of inflation (67%), the American Dream is still reachable (66%), and America is too politically correct (65%).
Independents oppose legal consequences for someone who has had an abortion (84%), resorting to violence to get the country on track (82%), giving immunity to a president who committed crimes during his time in office (79%), and allowing religion to play a role in policy (79%).
There is less consensus on the issues of immigration, discrimination, ownership of military assault-style weapons, and needing a leader who is a “rule breaker” to get the nation back on track.
Is Immigration Good or Bad for the U.S. Economy?
A slim majority of Americans (51%), including most Democrats (71%) and a majority of independents (54%), think immigration is good for the economy. 35% of residents overall, including 65% of Republicans, say immigration is bad for the economy. 11% of Americans do not think immigration impacts the U.S. economy.
Single-Use Plastics
A plurality of Americans (47%) says the amount of single-use plastics they use has remained consistent over the last five years. 32% say they use these plastics less frequently while 20% have increased their use.