9/26: 2013 NYC Mayoral Field Competitive

NY1/Marist New York City Poll

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor in New York City were held today, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn would receive 20% of the vote while 16% would cast their ballot for Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz. Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson is within striking distance with the support of 12% of Democrats.  In this hypothetical contest, 10% are behind current Comptroller John Liu, 7% back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer takes 6% of the vote.  Publisher Tom Allon garners just 2%, and one in four Democrats — 25% — are undecided.


voter and ballot box

Click Here for Complete September 26, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With twenty-five percent of Democrats undecided and the field lacking a dominant top tier of candidates, this is a campaign story still to be told,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Those looking to succeed Mayor Bloomberg might welcome his support.  But, if the numbers hold, don’t expect anyone to make his endorsement the centerpiece of their campaign.”

In NY1-Marist’s July survey, 16% of Democratic voters supported Quinn, 15% backed Thompson, and 14% were for Markowitz.  Nine percent, at the time, were behind Liu, 7% said they would vote for de Blasio, and 6% thought they would cast their ballot for Stringer.  Only 1% backed Allon, and 32% were undecided.

If Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz decides not to run for the office, Quinn and Thompson are neck and neck.  Without Markowitz, 22% of Democrats are for Quinn followed closely by Thompson with 18%.  John Liu receives 12%, Bill de Blasio nets 10%, and Scott Stringer garners 7% of the vote.  Two percent back Tom Allon, and 28% are undecided.

What kind of influence could an endorsement by Mayor Michael Bloomberg have on a mayoral candidate?  Nearly half of registered voters in New York City consider it the kiss of death.  48% report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, 30% think it would make them more likely to vote for one, and 15% say it makes no difference to their vote.  Only 8% are unsure.

Nearly half of Democratic voters citywide — 47% — report an endorsement by Bloomberg would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.  29% say it would make them more likely to support a candidate, and 17% think it would not make a difference.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (without Marty Markowitz)

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology