Majority Says Elect New Mayor…But, Even More Think Bloomberg Will Win

51% of registered voters in New York City say, “Out with the old and in with the new.” That’s the proportion of the electorate who believes it’s time to oust Mayor Michael Bloomberg from office and elect someone else. 44% of voters think Mayor Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected. In The Marist Poll’s May survey, voters were more divided with 48% reporting it’s time to elect a new mayor and 47% saying Bloomberg should get a third term.



However, regardless of whether voters support a third term for Bloomberg, more than seven in ten voters — 73% — think the mayor will be re-elected. This is compared with just one-fifth of the electorate who believes Bloomberg will not be re-elected. These findings are virtually unchanged from May.

Table: Bloomberg Re-election
Table: Will Bloomberg Be Re-elected?

Campaign 2009…Bloomberg Loses Ground Against Thompson…Commanding Lead Over Avella

What are the odds that Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be re-elected in November? According to two hypothetical scenarios, pretty good. Here’s how the competition stacks up. When pitted against Democratic City Comptroller Bill Thompson, Bloomberg leads Thompson 48% to 35%. Although Bloomberg does have a solid lead over Thompson, he has lost majority support, and the race is closer. When Marist last asked this question in May, Bloomberg received 51% to Thompson’s 33%.

When matched against Democratic City Council Member Tony Avella, Bloomberg leads Avella 53% to 29%. Both politicians received similar proportions of the electorate in May when Bloomberg garnered 52% to Avella’s 27%.

Table: Bloomberg/Thompson 2009 Matchup
Table: Bloomberg/Avella 2009 Matchup

Dems Back Thompson for Democratic Nomination…More Than One-Third Unsure

Now that Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner has announced he will not seek the Democratic nomination for New York City Mayor, is there a clear challenger to square off against Michael Bloomberg? According to this Marist Poll, Bill Thompson receives 47% of New York City Democrats’ support while Tony Avella garners 18%. 35% are unsure.

Weiner’s withdrawal from the race has benefitted Thompson the most. In Marist’s May survey, Thompson received 29% of the vote to Avella’s 8%. Weiner was the leader at that time with 34% of the vote. 29% of Democrats were unsure.

Table: 2009 Democratic Primary Tossup

Bloomberg’s Billions Make No Difference

Do voters care that Mayor Bloomberg intends to spend millions of his own dollars in order to be re-elected this fall? The short answer is, “No.” Just 11% report it will make them more likely to vote for the mayor while 24% say it will make them less likely to support him. Nearly two-thirds of voters — 65% — say it will not make any difference to them. However, that is an 8 percentage point drop since Marist last asked this question. Two months ago, 73% said Bloomberg’s spending would not impact their vote.

Table: Bloomberg Campaign Finance

Marist Poll Methodology

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Complete July 8, 2009 NYC Poll Release & Tables

Complete May 13, 2009 NYC Poll Tables