7/16: New Hampshire Election 2014 Gender Gap Drives Contest for U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads potential Republican nominee Scott Brown by eight points in her bid to be re-elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire.  Shaheen is popular among a majority of Granite State residents, whereas, Brown is more polarized.  But, it depends who you ask.  There is a wide gender gap that is defining this matchup.  Brown currently has a wide lead over his GOP rivals for the state’s Republican primary in September.  A majority of state residents approve of the job incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan is doing.  Her performance rating is strong among her Democratic base, as well as among women, and independent voters.  President Obama is not popular in the state and neither is the Affordable Care Act.

Click Here for Complete July 16, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll New Hampshire Release and Tables

“At this point, Scott Brown is not facing a high hurdle for the GOP nomination to oppose incumbent Senator Shaheen,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, Shaheen presents a bigger obstacle in his attempt to win this seat for the Republicans in November.”

Poll Points

• 50% of registered voters in New Hampshire, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen’s bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate.  42% back GOP frontrunner Scott Brown.  Only 6% of voters are undecided.
• The gender gap is the difference in this contest.  Brown leads Shaheen among men, 51% to 42%.  In contrast, Shaheen outpaces Brown among women, 59% to 34%.
• Shaheen is bolstered by support from 93% of Democrats, 56% of moderates, and 51% among independents.
• A majority of residents, 51%, have a favorable impression of Shaheen.  Assessment of Brown is divided.  38% have a favorable view of him, and 37% have an unfavorable opinion.  Again, men and women have very different perspectives on these two candidates.
• Scott Brown leads his Republican rivals by a wide margin in September’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate.  Brown has the support of 61% of the potential Republican electorate compared with 16% for Bob Smith and 10% Jim Rubens.  12% are undecided.
• Incumbent Governor Hassan has a statewide approval rating of 53% including 79% of Democrats, 60% of women, and 59% of independents.  More residents also have a positive view of her, 45%, than a negative one, 29%.

President Obama Upside Down and Congressional Republicans Even More So

• A majority of New Hampshire residents, 53%, disapprove of President Obama’s job performance.  39% approve.
• More than two-thirds of residents, 68%, disapprove of the how the Congressional Republicans are doing in Washington including a plurality of Republican voters, 47%.  Just 19% of adults statewide approve of the job performance of the Congressional GOP.
• 68% of New Hampshire adults believe the nation is off course.  26% believe the nation is headed in the right direction.  A majority of Democrats, 56%, think the nation is on the right path.  But, 90% of Republicans and 72% of independents describe the nation as on the wrong track.

No to Health Care Plan, Yes to Limits on Greenhouse Gases, Divide on Immigration

• 51% of state residents think the Affordable Care Act is a bad idea including 45% who strongly feel that way.  Overall, 35% of adults statewide view the health care plan as a good idea but just 26% say they hold this opinion strongly.
• Do residents want companies to be required to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming if utility costs are passed on to consumers?  A majority of New Hampshire adults, 53%, approve of such a proposal, and 39% disapprove.  A majority of people in all age groups supports requiring companies to do this although two-thirds of residents under 30 years of age favor these limits.  Men divide but women overwhelmingly approve of this approach.
• Immigration legislation which allows for a pathway to citizenship divides New Hampshire residents.  48% support, and 47% oppose creating an opportunity for citizenship for foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States.

Marist Poll Methodology
Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables