6/28: Obama Edges Romney in Michigan

NBC News/Marist Poll

In the battle for Michigan’s 16 electoral votes, President Barack Obama receives 47% to 43% for Mitt Romney among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent supports another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

“Romney may be Michigan’s native son, but it’s Obama who is scoring points on likeability,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Despite Obama’s edge in the state, the president is still below fifty and is running substantially behind what he got four years ago.”

Click Here for Complete June 28, 2012 Michigan NBC News/Marist Poll Release

Click Here for Complete June 28, 2012 Michigan NBC News/Marist Poll Tables

Key points:

  • Looking at party, most Democrats — 89% — back Obama while most Republicans — 92% — favor Romney.
  • Independent voters divide.  44% are for Romney while 41% are for the president.
  • 95% of those who describe themselves as strong Democrats back the president.  Among soft Democrats — voters who are not strong Democrats or Democratic leaning independents — 78% are for Obama.  When it comes to those who say they are just independents, 38% are for Romney compared with 35% for Obama.  A notable 26% are undecided.  96% of strong Republicans are for Romney.  Among those who identify as soft Republicans, 86% support Romney.
  • Among those who have an excellent or good chance of voting in November, Obama has the support of 47% while Romney receives 43%.
  • A majority — 54% — of registered voters who express a high level of enthusiasm about the presidential election are for Mr. Obama compared with 42% for Romney.  Obama edges Romney among those who are moderately enthusiastic.  47% support the president while 43% back Romney.  Among voters who have a low degree of enthusiasm, Romney leads 44% to 32% for Obama.
  • Voters in Michigan who have a high level of interest in the presidential contest divide.  48% are behind Obama while Romney garners 45% of the vote.
  • Nearly six in ten voters who strongly support their choice of candidate — 59% — are for Obama.  This compares with 41% who support Romney.
  • 45% of male voters support Romney while 42% favor Obama.  The president — 50% — has the advantage over Romney — 41% — among female voters.
  • Among voters under the age of 30, President Obama — 53% — outpaces Romney — 38%.  The president — 49% — also leads Romney — 39% — among those 30 to 44 years old.  Those 45 to 59 divide.  45% support the president while 43% are for Romney.  Among those 60 and older, 48% back Romney while 43% are behind the president.

Table: 2012 Presidential Tossup (MI Registered Voters with Leaners)

Nearly Seven in Ten Strongly Committed to Candidate

Looking at intensity of support, 69% of registered voters in Michigan strongly support their choice of candidate.  About one in four — 24% — is somewhat committed to their pick while 5% report they might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Key points:

  • 78% of voters who are for Obama are strongly committed to him.  This compares with 60% of Romney’s backers who have a similar level of support.

Table: Intensity of Support (MI Registered Voters)

41% Very Enthusiastic About Going to Polls in November

More than four in ten registered voters in Michigan — 41% — say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November’s presidential election.  37% are somewhat enthusiastic while 15% are not too enthusiastic about casting their ballot.  Seven percent are not enthusiastic at all.

Key points:

  • 49% of Obama’s supporters express a high level of enthusiasm about voting while 41% of Romney’s backers share this degree of enthusiasm.

Table: Enthusiasm to Vote (MI Registered Voters)

Obama Approval Rating at 48% in Michigan

When it comes to how President Obama is doing in office, nearly half of registered voters in the state — 48% — approve of his performance.  42% disapprove, and 10% are unsure.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in February, 51% of registered voters statewide gave the president high marks while 38% reported he missed the mark.  11%, at the time, were unsure.

Table: President Obama Approval Rating in Michigan (MI Registered Voters)

A Tale of Two Favorability Ratings

A slim majority of voters — 51% — have a favorable view of President Obama.  41% have an unfavorable one, and 8% are unsure.

Romney fares less favorably in his home state.  While 37% view Romney positively, 43% do not, and 19% are unsure.

Table: President Barack Obama Favorability (MI Registered Voters)

Table: Mitt Romney Favorability (MI Registered Voters)

Obama, Romney Vie for Supremacy on Economy…Obama Bests on Foreign Policy

Which candidate do Michigan voters think is better skilled to handle the economy?  They divide.  44% believe Obama will do a better job on this issue while 42% think Romney is better equipped to do so.  14% are unsure.

When it comes to foreign policy, half of registered voters — 50% — report Obama is the stronger candidate.  34% report Romney will do a better job, and 16% are unsure.

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling the Economy (MI Registered Voters)

Table: Candidate Who Will Do a Better Job Handling Foreign Policy (MI Registered Voters)

Economic Conditions Viewed by Nearly Six in Ten as Inherited

57% of voters in Michigan say President Obama inherited the nation’s current economic conditions.  About one-third — 33% — say they are a result of the president’s policies, and 11% are unsure.

A majority of voters are optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy.  55% believe the worst of the country’s economic conditions are behind us while 35% say the worst is yet to come.  10% are unsure.

This is little changed from NBC News/Marist’s February survey when 55% of registered voters in Michigan believed there were brighter economic days ahead, 37% reported there was more bad news on the horizon, and 8% were unsure.

Table: Current Economic Conditions Inherited (MI Registered Voters)

Table: U.S. Economy — Will It Get Worse? (MI Registered Voters)

Nation Needs Course Correction, Says 55%

55% of voters believe things in the country are off on the wrong track.  This compares with 38% who think they are on the right path.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: Right or Wrong Direction of the Country (MI Registered Voters)

Stabenow Leads Hoekstra for Senate Seat

In the race for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow receives the support of 49% of registered voters statewide.  Her Republican opponent, Pete Hoekstra, garners 37% of the vote.  14% are undecided.

When NBC News/Marist last reported this question in February, 53% backed Stabenow while 32% were for Hoekstra.  15%, at the time, were undecided.

Table: 2012 U.S. Senate Tossup in Michigan: Hoekstra/Stabenow (MI Registered Voters with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample