May 31, 2012
5/31: Obama and Romney Neck and Neck in Nevada
In the battle for Nevada’s six electoral votes, President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are very competitive. Obama receives 48% to 46% for Mitt Romney, among registered voters in Nevada including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
“President Obama is nowhere near the twelve percentage point victory he had in Nevada four years ago, but at 48%, he remains within striking distance to carry the state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Drilling down into the numbers, there is a gender gap and a generational divide which may tell the story on Election Day.”
- Looking at party, 82% of Democrats support Obama while 88% of Republicans are for Romney.
- Among independents, President Obama — 50% — is ahead of Romney — 39%.
- Obama — 47% — and Romney — 47% — are tied among voters who have an excellent or good chance of voting.
- Among voters who express a high level of enthusiasm about voting in November, Obama receives 50% to 46% for Romney. Looking at those who are moderately enthusiastic, 52% are for Obama while 44% back Romney. Among those who have a low level of enthusiasm, Romney has 49% to Obama’s 32%.
- Regardless of voters’ degree of interest in the presidential contest, Obama and Romney are in a tight battle. Obama garners 49% to 46% for Romney among those with a high level of interest. Among those who express a moderate degree of interest, Romney takes 49% to 47% for Obama. Obama has 45% to Romney’s 42% among those who have a low level of interest in the contest.
- A majority of voters who strongly support their choice of candidate — 54% — support Obama compared with 46% for Romney.
- There is a gender gap. Romney has majority support — 52% — among men compared with 41% for Obama. Obama has majority support — 54% — among women compared with 40% for Romney.
- Obama carries younger voters. Among those under 30, Obama has 54% while Romney receives 44%. A majority of voters who are 30 to 44 years of age — 54% — also back the president. 39% of these voters are behind Romney. The race is tied among voters 45 to 59 years old. Obama has 47% in this age group, and Romney has 47%. And, among voters 60 and older, Romney — 53% — leads Obama — 41%.
Nearly Three in Four Express Strong Commitment to Candidate
How strongly do registered voters in Nevada support their choice of candidate? 74% are firmly in their candidate’s camp while 20% are somewhat behind their pick. Five percent might vote differently, and only 1% is unsure.
- Almost eight in ten Obama supporters — 79% — are strongly committed to their choice of candidate while 69% of Romney’s backers express a similar degree of support.
Half Very Enthusiastic About November Election
When it comes to voter enthusiasm, 50% of Nevada voters are very enthusiastic about voting in November’s presidential election. This compares with 32% who are somewhat enthusiastic and 10% who are not too enthusiastic. Seven percent are not enthusiastic at all.
- 53% of voters who support the president are very enthusiastic about going to the polls in the fall while a similar 51% of Romney backers say the same.
Voters Divide about Obama’s Job Performance
While 46% of registered voters statewide approve of the job President Obama is doing in office, 47% disapprove. Seven percent are unsure.
Candidates Fare Favorably? Both Receive Mixed Reviews
Looking at the favorability of the candidates, 48% of voters have a positive view of the president while 46% have a less than stellar one. Six percent are unsure.
Voters also divide about Romney. 44% have a favorable impression of him compared with 41% who do not. A notable 15% are unsure.
Nearly Half Say Position on Same-Sex Marriage Has Little Impact on Vote
While 27% of voters say they are more likely to cast their ballot for Romney because he opposes same-sex marriage and 25% report they are more likely to support President Obama because he supports same-sex marriage, 47% say the issue matters little to their vote. Only 1% is undecided.
The Economy or Social Issues? Nearly Eight in Ten Say the Economy
When it comes to the factor more important to their vote, 78% of the Nevada electorate believes the economy is the more pressing issue. 17%, though, report a candidate’s position on social issues has a larger influence on their vote. Five percent are unsure.
Voters divide about the candidate who will do a better job handling the economy. 44% think the president is more adept at doing so while 44% say Romney is. 11% are unsure.
Looking at social issues, half — 50% — believe Mr. Obama is the candidate who more closely reflects their views. This compares with 40% who report Mr. Romney shares their stance on these issues. 10% are unsure.
On other issues:
- Half of voters — 50% — believe the president will do a better job at handling foreign policy while 40% think Romney is better suited to do so. 11% are unsure.
- 49% perceive Obama to be the candidate who best understands voters’ problems. This compares with 40% who have this impression of Romney. 11% are unsure.
- Half — 50% — think Romney will do a better job reducing the national debt. 39% have this view of Obama. 11% are unsure.
Majority Views Economic Conditions as Inherited
56% of registered voters in Nevada believe President Obama mostly inherited the country’s economic conditions. 36%, though, say they are a result of his policies, and 8% are unsure.
Regarding the U.S. economy, a majority — 52% — believes the worst of the nation’s economic conditions are over. 40% think there is more bad economic news ahead. Eight percent are unsure.
When it comes to the state of the economy over the next year, about one in three — 33% — thinks it will get better while 18% believe it will get worse. A plurality — 44% — says it will remain about the same, and 5% are unsure.
Looking at family finances, a majority of voters — 54% — report their personal finances will remain steady in the coming year. 35% think their financial picture will get better, and 11% say it will get worse.
Get the Nation Back on Track, Says Majority
55% of the state’s voters say things in the country are off on the wrong track. This compares with 39% who believe the nation is headed in the right direction. Six percent are unsure.
Heller-Berkley Senate Race a Virtual Dead Heat
In the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada, Republican incumbent Dean Heller — 46% — and Democrat Shelley Berkley — 44% — are neck and neck among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. 10% are undecided.