4/23: Major Shift in Perceptions of NYC’s Direction

NY1/Marist New York City Poll

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — currently believe the city is moving in the right direction while 42% report it is moving in the wrong one.  Six percent are unsure.  This is the largest proportion of voters to believe the city is on the right track since February of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 52% — had this view.

Click Here for Complete April 23, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“This is a turnabout in voters’ views of how the city is doing,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “We’ll have to wait and see if it’s a sign of positive things to come.”

When the NY1-Marist Poll last reported this question in September, just the opposite was true.  A majority — 52% –thought the city was on the wrong path while 42% said it was on the right course.  Six percent, then, were unsure.

By borough:

  • A majority of voters in Queens and Staten Island — 55% — say the city is on the right path while 39% had this view in September.
  • In Manhattan, 54% of voters report the direction of the Big Apple is correct.  This is little changed from NY1-Marist’s previous survey when 51% had this view.
  • Nearly half of Brooklyn voters — 49% — give the city’s direction a thumbs-up while just 36% did the same in the fall.
  • 47% of Bronx voters believe New York City is on the proper path.  A similar proportion of voters in this borough — 46% — had this opinion previously.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

Bloomberg Approval Rating at 44%

More than four in ten registered voters in New York City — 44% — currently approve of Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s job performance.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 12% of registered voters in the five boroughs think the mayor is doing an excellent job while 32% say he is doing a good one.  About one-third — 33% — report Bloomberg is doing a fair job while 22% believe he is doing a poor one.  Just 1% is unsure.

Bloomberg’s approval rating is similar to the one he received when NY1-Marist last reported this question in September.  At that time, 46% gave Bloomberg high marks.  35% said he was doing a fair job, and 18% reported his performance was subpar.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

By borough:

  • Bloomberg’s approval rating has dropped among voters in the Bronx.  33% of registered voters approve of Bloomberg’s job performance while 48% did so in NY1-Marist’s previous survey.
  • Among registered voters in Brooklyn, 46% say Bloomberg is doing either an excellent or good job in office, up from 38% who thought this to be the case in September.
  • Looking at voters in Queens and Staten Island, there has been little change.  44% of voters in these boroughs give Bloomberg a thumbs-up while 47% did the same in September.
  • 51% of registered voters in Manhattan approve of Bloomberg’s job performance.  A similar proportion — 50% — had this impression last fall.

How do voters think Mayor Bloomberg is handling the city’s budget?  Half — 50% — approve of how he is dealing with the issue while 43% disapprove.  Eight percent are unsure.  In September’s survey, voters divided.  46% approved of how Bloomberg was managing the city’s budget while 46% disapproved, and 8% were unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget

Table: Bloomberg on the City’s Budget Over Time

Quinn Leads Democratic Pack for 2013 Mayoralty by 20 Points

Looking at the potential Democratic candidates for mayor in 2013, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn outdistances her closest competitor by 20 percentage points among Democrats citywide.  32% support Quinn while former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson comes in a distant second with 12%.  Public Advocate Bill de Blasio receives 10% of the Democratic vote while current Comptroller John Liu has the support of 9%.  Seven percent of Democrats back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, has the backing of 1%.  29% are undecided.

In September’s survey, Quinn received 22% of the vote while Thompson had the backing of 18% of Democrats.  12% were for Liu, and 10%, at that time, were behind de Blasio.  Stringer received the support of 7%, and Allon garnered just 2%.  28% of Democrats were undecided.

What kind of an impact would an endorsement by Bloomberg have on the 2013 race?  It wouldn’t be a boon for the candidate especially among Democrats.  48% of registered Democrats are less likely to support a candidate backed by Mayor Bloomberg, and 26% are more likely to do so.  Among registered voters in New York City, 42% would be less likely to vote for a candidate supported by the mayor while 28% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate.  18% say it would make no difference to their vote, and 11% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s previous survey, nearly half of registered voters — 48% — reported they would be less likely to vote for a candidate with Bloomberg’s backing while 30% thought a Bloomberg endorsement would make them more likely to do so.  15% said it would make no difference to their vote, and 8% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Table: Impact of Bloomberg Endorsement

Bloomberg’s Legacy on Pace

39% of registered voters in New York City believe Mayor Bloomberg will be remembered positively after he leaves office.  This includes 10% who say he will be thought of as one of the city’s best mayors and 29% who believe he will be perceived as above average.  Nearly four in ten — 39% — think Bloomberg’s legacy will be average while 13% say he will be considered a below average mayor.  Nine percent go even farther and state he will be thought of as one of the city’s worst mayors.

There has been little change on this question since September when 41% said Bloomberg would be remembered positively.  41% replied Bloomberg’s legacy would be average while 12% thought it would be below average.  Six percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of the city’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample