April 12, 2016
4/12: New York: Trump & Well-Positioned for Big Wins
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll
In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination in New York, businessman Donald Trump is favored by 54% of New York’s likely Republican primary voters. If he can hold on to a majority of Republican support in the state, the April 19th contest could give him the lion’s share of New York’s delegates. Ohio Governor John Kasich, 21%, lags behind in second followed by Texas Senator Ted Cruz with 18%. Trump has a double-digit lead among key demographic groups.
“The road to the conventions goes through New York for both the Democrats and Republicans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Right now, the front-runners look like they will erase recent setbacks and add significantly to their delegate margins. New York is not likely to enhance the hopes of those trying to close the gap in the delegate hunt.”
64% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference or voted by absentee ballot strongly support their choice of candidate. Among likely Republican primary voters who support Trump, 72% are firmly committed to him.
Looking at the second choice candidate of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference, Kasich, 36%, tops the list followed by Cruz, 32%, and Trump, 15%.
In the event that Trump goes to the Republican convention in Cleveland with the most delegates but does not have enough to win the nomination on the first ballot, a majority of likely Republican primary voters in New York, 64%, think Trump should still receive the nomination. 28% assert the GOP should nominate someone else. If the Republican Party decides to nominate someone else, about six in ten likely Republican primary voters, 59%, say the nominee should be someone who ran in this year’s primary. 32% think it is acceptable to nominate someone who was not a candidate during the primaries.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 55%, leads Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 41%, among likely Democratic primary voters in New York including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who voted by absentee ballot. Three percent are undecided.
Clinton does best among likely Democratic primary voters in New York who are women and 45 years of age and older or who are African American. Sanders does best among likely Democratic primary voters who have not participated in primaries in the past, those who are under 45 years old, or those who identify as very liberal. Clinton leads Sanders by 19 points in New York City and by 25 points in the suburbs which surround the city. Clinton and Sanders are competitive upstate.
69% of likely Democratic primary voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate. More Clinton supporters, 73%, express a firm commitment to their preferred candidate than do backers of Sanders, 63%.
When it comes to party unity, Sanders’ backers are more hesitant than Clinton’s supporters to rally behind their candidate’s opponent if that opponent receives the Democratic nomination. 62% of Sanders’ backers say they will throw their support behind Clinton if she becomes the nominee. This compares with 77% of Clinton’s supporters who say they will unify behind Sanders if he wins the party’s nod.
Turning to the general election, not surprisingly in this blue state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one, the Democrats have the advantage over the Republicans among New York registered voters. Both Sanders and Clinton lead their potential GOP rivals by double digits.
Among the Democratic and Republican fields, three candidates, Clinton, Sanders, and Trump, have connections to New York. Who is the real New Yorker? When New York residents are asked, 37% say Trump is the authentic New Yorker followed by Sanders, 27%, and Clinton, 26%. When Democrats are asked to choose between Clinton and Sanders, 42% of the likely Democratic electorate chooses Clinton, and 39% select Sanders.
Looking at President Barack Obama’s approval rating in New York State, 62% of residents, including 87% of likely Democratic primary voters, approve of the job the president is doing in office. 33% of residents disapprove.