September 23, 2026
2026 Midterm Elections in Texas, September 2026
Talarico with Edge in Texas Senate Race...Hinojosa & Abbott Competitive
President Donald Trump may not be on the ballot this year, but his presence is felt in this year’s midterm elections. In the race for U.S. Senate in Texas, James Talarico edges Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters statewide, and Democrats are +3 against the Republicans on the generic congressional ballot question. In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Gina Hinojosa and Republican incumbent Greg Abbott are competitive.
Registered voters deliver a downbeat verdict on the national landscape. Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s job performance outpaces his approval, and opposition to Trump emerges as a motivator for a plurality in the congressional vote. Nearly four in ten say their family finances have worsened during the past year.
- Talarico (50%) edges Paxton (44%) among registered voters statewide in the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas. Talarico receives majority support among independents (55%) Regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.
- On the generic congressional ballot question, 49% of registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate compared with 46% who say they are more likely to support the Republican. In October of 2024 Republicans (53%) were +7 points against the Democrats (46%) on the ballot. 60% of Texas voters think the Republican running for Congress will win.
- Texas voters are more likely to say that their congressional vote is mostly a vote against President Trump (39%) than one in support of him (25%). 34% say the president is not a factor in their vote. Of those who say President Trump is not a factor, a majority approve of the president's job performance.
- In the race for governor, 3 points separate Hinojosa (49%) and Abbott (46%) among Texas registered voters. Hinojosa receives the support of 52% of independents. However, 68% of registered voters overall think Abbott will be re-elected.
- President Trump's job approval rating is upside with 43% saying they approve of the job he is doing and 55% reporting they disapprove. Younger members within the Texas electorate are more likely to disapprove of the president than their older counterparts.
- 38% of Texas voters say their personal finances have gotten worse over the last year, and an additional 38% say they have stayed about the same. 23% report their financial picture has improved. Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (17%) to say their family finances have gotten worse during the last 12 months.
For additional data pertaining to the Midterm Elections in Texas, click on the link to the full table packet in the Survey Data button below.
Methodology
This Marist Poll Texas survey of 1,139 Texas registered voters was conducted September 17th through September 20th, 2026 by the Marist Poll. Registered voters 18 years of age and older residing in Texas were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for registered voters (n=1,139) are statistically significant within ±4.4 percentage points.