October 15, 2026
2026 Midterm Elections in Iowa, October 2026
Turek and Hinson in Close Contest for U.S. Senate... Sand Leads Lahn in Race for Governor
Just three points separate Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa. Turek opens up a seven-point advantage against Hinson, among registered voters, comparable to his lead last month. On the generic congressional ballot question, the Republicans have a three-point edge among likely voters against the Democrats running for Congress. Two points separate the congressional candidates among registered voters, marking a shift from a +5-point advantage for the Democrats last month. Looking to the governor’s contest in Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand has a seven-point lead against Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters statewide. Sand’s lead opens up to 11 points among registered, comparable to the advantage Sand held last month.
- In the U.S. Senate race in Iowa, Turek (48%) edges Hinson (45%) among likely voters statewide. Independents who are likely to vote break for Turek (51% to 31% for Hinson). A 29-point gender also gap exists. 59% of likely voters statewide think Hinson will actually be elected.
- The generic congressional ballot in Iowa is competitive with three points separating the Republican candidate (50%) on the ballot and the Democrat (47%) among likely voters. However, By nearly two-to-one, likely voters think the Republican running for Congress in their district (63%) will win and not the Democrat on the ballot (34%).
- A plurality of likely voters (44%) say President Trump is not much of a factor in their vote for Congress. More than one in three say their ballot is a vote against Trump, and 21% report their congressional vote is for the president. Of voters who say President Trump is not influencing their decision, a majority approve of how he is performing in office.
- In the governor's contest, Sand (52%) has the advantage against Lahn (45%) among likely voters statewide. Sand (67%) outpaces Lahn (26%) among independents who are likely to vote. Half of likely voters (50%) think Sand will win the election compared with 45% who say Lahn will actually win.
- 44% of likely voters approve of the job President Trump is doing, and 53% disapprove.
- A plurality of Iowa likely voters (42%) report their personal finances have gotten worse during the last year. 36% say they have remained about the same, and 20% say their financial picture has gotten better. Democrats who are likely to vote (54%) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (25%) to say their personal finances have gotten worse.
For additional data pertaining to the Midterm Elections in Iowa, click on the link to the full table packet in the Survey Data button below.
Methodology
This Marist Poll Iowa survey of 1,100 Iowa registered voters was conducted October 8th through October 11th, 2026 by the Marist Poll. Registered voters 18 years of age and older residing in Iowa were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. Results for registered voters are statistically significant within ±4.5 percentage points. Results for likely voters are statistically significant within ±6.6 percentage points.