2024 Presidential Election Tossup & Issues

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll

Biden and Trump Competitive in 2024 Matchup

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain competitive among registered voters nationally in a hypothetical presidential rematch. Biden faces re-election with a job approval rating stagnant in the low 40s and stares down an impeachment inquiry for which support has grown. However, Biden and Trump have something in common. Both have upside down favorability ratings. The survey also includes Americans’ viewpoints on a slate of proposals put forth by a number of the candidates on the campaign trail.

2024 Presidential Rematch
If the 2024 election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll Registered Voters. Interviews conducted December 4th through December 7th, 2023. n=1,129 MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
  • Biden (49%) and Trump (48%) are closely matched among registered voters nationally in a head-to-head presidential contest. Independents break for Trump. 50% support Trump compared with 45% for Biden.

  • Biden’s job approval rating among Americans is 40%, little changed from 42% last month. In contrast, 53% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job performance. 42% of Americans strongly disapprove of how Biden is doing his job compared with 23% who strongly approve.

  • Biden’s favorability rating among Americans is upside down, 40% favorable to 53% unfavorable. In October, 43% of residents nationally had a favorable impression of Biden while 51% had an unfavorable one. By nearly two-to-one, Americans are more likely to perceive Biden very unfavorably (39%) than very favorably (20%).

  • 49% of Americans, including 24% of Democrats, favor the House of Representatives’ impeachment inquiry into President Biden. 48%, including one in five Republicans, disapprove of the investigation. In October, 52% of Americans disapproved of the probe, and 47% supported it.

  • Like Biden, Trump’s favorability rating is upside down. 38% perceive Trump favorably while 56% have an unfavorable view of him. This score is identical to what Trump received in October. Americans are also more likely to view Trump very unfavorably (45%) than very favorably (24%).

"Americans face a very unusual situation for next November, in that it may be a rematch between the current incumbent and a former president," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Toss into the equation that neither frontrunner is well-liked, and both could face an electorate with an impeachment on their political resume."

Should the U.S. Authorize Additional Funding to Israel and Ukraine?

More than six in ten Americans continue to believe the United States should provide additional funding to support the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. However, there is a difference of opinion about whether or not both should be funded. 32% of Americans, compared with 35% last month, say the U.S. should provide additional funding to support both Ukraine and Israel. 16%, up from 12%, say the U.S. should provide assistance to support only Ukraine in the war with Russia. 15%, compared with 14% previously, say only Israel should be given additional support in the war with Hamas. 36% of Americans report the United States should cut off funding for both wars.

Although pluralities of Republicans (39%) and independents (38%) think the U.S. should not authorize additional funding for either war, 59% of Republicans and independents agree U.S. aid should be directed at one or both of these conflicts. Only 24% of Democrats think the U.S. should not provide financial backing to either Ukraine or Israel.

Americans Divide About Providing Refuge to Palestinians

Half of Americans (50%) say the United States should not allow Palestinian refugees from Gaza into the country. 47% think Palestinian refugees should be granted entrance. 71% of Democrats support giving refuge while 74% of Republicans are opposed. Independents (56%) are more closely aligned with Republicans on this question.

Bipartisan Support Exists for Raising Taxes, Not Cutting Entitlements, To Pay Down the Debt

62% of Americans – including 73% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and 66% of independents – think lawmakers should increase taxes and fees rather than cut entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare (32%) to lower the national debt.

Half of Americans Oppose Tax Credits for EV-producing Companies

On the question of providing tax credits to U.S. automakers who manufacture electric vehicles, 50% of Americans say these credits are an overreach by the government. 45% view the credits as an incentive. While Democrats (73%) perceive tax credits for producing electric vehicles to be incentives, Republicans (78%) and independents (56%) say that tax credits for this purpose are out of line.

More Than Six in Ten Want Trade with China to Continue

61% of Americans, including 71% of Democrats and 62% of independents, think the U.S. should maintain trade relations with China. 37% of residents nationally, including 55% of Republicans, say the U.S. should sever trade ties with the nation.

Leave Abortion Rights to the States, Says Majority

Bolstered by Republicans (70%) and independents (59%), a majority of Americans (54%) think abortion laws should be decided by each individual state. 43% of residents, including 64% of Democrats, say abortion laws should be decided at the federal level.

Majority Supports Limits on Abortion, But Strong Consensus for Exceptions

52% of Americans think legal restrictions should be placed on abortion. This includes 18% who say that abortion should be permitted only during the first six weeks, 21% who report it should be allowed during the first 15 weeks, and 13% who think it should be permitted during the first 24 weeks of a pregnancy. 21% of Americans believe abortion should never be allowed, and 25% say it should be permitted at any time during a pregnancy. Of note, 43% of Democrats believe limits should be placed on abortion procedures in the United States. An additional 11% of Democrats say abortion should never be permitted.

But, most Americans (85%) say, if there are laws which limit when someone can have an abortion, exceptions should be made in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the pregnant person throughout the pregnancy. Bipartisan agreement exists on this question.

More Than Six in Ten Support U.S. Citizenship for Children Born to Undocumented Immigrants

63% of Americans say children born in the United States to undocumented immigrants should be given U.S. citizenship. 35% disagree. Support is widespread among Democrats (85%) while nearly six in ten Republicans (59%) oppose such a measure. Among independents, 60% say these children should receive U.S. citizenship.

Majority Support Exists for a Wall at the Southern Border

54% of Americans think the United States should complete a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border. 45%, though, say the U.S. should not support construction. Most Republicans (85%) and a majority of independents (58%) support building the wall. Nearly three in four Democrats (74%) oppose it.

Sex Assigned at Birth Determines Gender, Say Nearly Six in Ten

59% of Americans say the determination of whether a person is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth. 38% of Americans disagree. 88% of Republicans, 63% of independents, and 33% of Democrats believe sex at birth defines gender.