11/24: Looking to 2012: 48% Plan to Vote Against Obama

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Barack Obama would have his work cut out for him.  48% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to definitely vote against Mr. Obama while 36% say they will definitely vote for him.  16% are undecided.



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The president needs to make inroads with independent voters.  Half — 50% — report they definitely will not support him in his re-election bid.  Three in ten say they definitely plan to vote for him, and 20% are undecided.

“As the electoral page turns from the mids to 2012, President Obama starts off, not surprisingly, in a somewhat tenuous position,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012

Dems Divide Over 2012 Primary Challenge for Obama

There have been rumblings in the political sphere about another Democrat challenging President Obama for the party’s nomination in 2012.  And, in fact, Democrats and Democratic leaning independent voters divide about the idea.  46% do not want such a challenge to occur, but 45% do.  Nine percent are unsure.

  • 40% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents prefer a more conservative challenger while 39% want one who is more liberal.  22% are unsure.
  • Interestingly, a plurality of Democrats — 42% — would like to see a more liberal challenger while half of Democratic leaning independents — 50% — would like to see a more conservative one.

Table: Challenge to Obama in 2012 Primaries
Table: Ideology of Potential 2012 Democratic Challenger

Plurality Support Obama in Hypothetical Three-Way 2012 Matchup

If President Obama were to face off against Republican Sarah Palin and independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2012, 45% of registered voters nationally say they would vote for Obama, 31% would support Palin, and 15% would cast their ballot for Bloomberg.  Nine percent are undecided.

Table: 2012 Hypothetical Presidential Matchup: Obama/Palin/Bloomberg

But, What Are Palin’s Odds of Receiving the GOP Nomination?

Looking at the contest for the 2012 Republican nominee for president, there is no clear front-runner.  If the Republican presidential primary were held today, 20% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents say they would support former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee receives 16% of the vote.  Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin garners 13%, and former Georgia Congressman Newt Gingrich is buoyed by the support of 10% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.  New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Texas Governor Rick Perry get 9% and 5%, respectively.  Four percent report they would vote for Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels while Indiana Congressman Mike Pence is favored by 3%.  Former New York State Governor George Pataki, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour round out the possible field with 3%, 2%, and 1%, respectively.  14% are undecided.

Even among Republicans and Republican leaning independent voters who support the Tea Party, the GOP field is open.

Table: 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

61% of Voters Say, “No,” to a President Bloomberg

About six in ten registered voters nationally — 61% — do not want New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for president.  12% would like Bloomberg to take to the national stage while 27% are unsure.

Table: Bloomberg for President

McClatchy-Marist Poll Methodology

Related Story:
Voters Divide Over Obama’s Approval Rating