11/2: Louisiana: Landrieu Leads Cassidy in Tuesday’s Election, but Cassidy has Advantage in Runoff

In Tuesday’s contest for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, 44%, leads Republican Bill Cassidy, 36%, by 8 points among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Republican Rob Maness receives 15%.

Partisan politics come into play.  Landrieu has secured her Democratic base.  Among Republicans likely to vote, Cassidy has the support of about seven in ten.  Maness draws more than one in five Republican likely voters.  A plurality of independent likely voters, 38%, supports Landrieu, but the majority of independents backs either Cassidy, 33%, or Maness, 20%.

If none of the candidates receives 50% of the vote, a runoff election will occur.  In a two-way contest against Landrieu, Cassidy is out in front.  Maness also has an edge over Landrieu should they square off in a runoff.

“Landrieu is well positioned to lead the field this Tuesday,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, she would face an uphill fight to keep her seat against Bill Cassidy, her likely opponent in a runoff.”

Complete November 2, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of Louisiana

Poll points:

  • Among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Landrieu receives 44% to 36% for Cassidy and 15% for Maness in the race for U.S. Senate.  Four percent are undecided.
  • Most Democrats likely to vote, 86%, are for Landrieu.  Among Republicans likely to vote, Cassidy has 71%, and Maness garners 22%.  38% of independents likely to cast a ballot support Landrieu.  Cassidy has 33% to 20% for Maness among these voters.
  • 63% of likely voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate.  Seven percent might vote differently.  More of Landrieu’s supporters, 71%, compared with 60% of Maness’ backers and 55% of those for Cassidy, report they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • Among registered voters, Landrieu, 42%, has a 7 point lead over Cassidy, 35%.  Maness receives 15%.  Six percent are undecided.
  • Landrieu’s negatives, 50%, are high among likely voters.  In contrast, likely voters, 41%, have an unfavorable view Cassidy.  Looking at Maness’ favorable score, 40% think well of him, and 37% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.
  • 19% of likely voters cite job creation and economic growth as the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress on Tuesday followed closely by Social Security and Medicare, 17%, and health care, 17%.  Breaking partisan gridlock in Washington, 14%, also rates highly among likely voters.  The deficit and government spending, 7%, military action against ISIS, 6%, immigration, 6%, and looking out for the interests of women, 3%, round out the list.
  • In a Cassidy-Landrieu runoff, Cassidy has 50% to 45% for Landrieu among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Looking at a Maness-Landrieu runoff, Maness has 50% to 46% for Landrieu.  In both of these two-way matchups, the Republican candidate secures his party’s base and attracts a majority of independents likely to vote.
  • President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 39% among Louisiana residents.  55% disapprove.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables