10/6: Clinton Outpaces Democratic Opponents, Bests GOP in General Election Bid

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the early favorite in the 2016 presidential contest.  Clinton leads her potential opponents for the Democratic nomination by more than four-to-one among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationally.  Looking at her general election prospects, Clinton receives the support of, at least, a majority of registered voters in hypothetical matchups against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

On the Republican side, a front-runner has not emerged from the list of potential candidates seeking the GOP’s nomination in 2016.  Bush receives 15% among Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally.  The only other candidates to achieve double-digit support are Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, and Chris Christie.

Complete October 6, 2014 McClatchy-Marist Poll

“Right now, the 2016 election is all about Hillary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Without a strong Democratic opponent for the nomination and a fragmented GOP field, she’s the early front-runner.”

Poll points:

  • Clinton, 64%, outpaces Biden, 15%, among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents in the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination.  Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has 8%, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has 4%, and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley receives 2%.  Former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia garners 1%.
  • Clinton leads Jeb Bush, 53% to 42%, among registered voters nationally.  When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in August, Clinton was ahead of Bush, 48% to 41% (Trend).
  • Against Rand Paul, Clinton has the support of 52% of registered voters to 43% for Paul.  Previously, Clinton was ahead of Paul, 48% to 42% (Trend).
  • 51% of registered voters support Clinton while 42% are for Chris Christie.  In mid-August, Clinton received 47% to 41% for Christie (Trend).
  • There continues to be no clear front-runner in the race for the 2016 Republican nomination. Bush has 15% to 13% each for Paul and Ryan.  Christie garners 12% while Texas Governor Rick Perry has 7%.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, 6%, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, 4%, and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, 4%, follow.  Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 3%, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 3%, round out the list.  21% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents nationally are undecided.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables