10/30: Wisconsin U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican

Republican Ron Johnson leads incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold in the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin by 7 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.

Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson

Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson

This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, five days from Election Day.

Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 WI McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables

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Wisconsin: U.S. Senate Likely Voters

Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:]

Feingold

Johnson

Other

Undecided

WI LV Oct. 30, 2010

45%

52%

1%

2%

WI LV Oct. 4, 2010

45%

52%

<1%

3%

Party ID
Democrat

91%

5%

<1%

3%

Republican

4%

95%

1%

<1%

Independent

41%

57%

<1%

2%

October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Wisconsin Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 491 MOE +/- 4.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Enthusiasm: The More Things Change, the More Things Stay the Same

Although there’s no change in the matchup between Feingold and Johnson and voters’ enthusiasm overall is similar to McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll, the enthusiasm factor is different among key groups.  Democrats, liberals, women, and Feingold supporters express greater enthusiasm about voting on Tuesday when compared with the earlier poll.  While Johnson’s supporters remain more enthusiastic than Feingold’s backers, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed.

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Wisconsin:  Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010

Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week?

October 30, 2010

October 4, 2010

WI Registered Voters

48%

44%

Party ID
Democrat

54%

38%

Republican

56%

53%

Independent

42%

44%

Tea Party Supporters

57%

69%

Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters
Voters for Feingold

48%

39%

Voters for Johnson

56%

58%

October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Wisconsin Registered Voters including early voters N= 811 MOE +/- 3.5%.  Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.

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Key Findings:

  • In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama carried Wisconsin by 13 percentage points.  Today, his approval rating among registered voters is 47%.
  • When thinking about the U.S. economy, 51% of registered voters in Wisconsin say the worst is behind us. 41% believe the worst is yet to come.  There has been little change on this question since McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll in the state.  Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican.  Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
  • 53% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from the previous administration.  31% say the economy is a result of Obama’s own policies.
  • There has been a 7 percentage point increase in the proportion of likely voters overall who strongly support their choice of candidate.  85% currently do so.  Although he trails in the contest overall, 88% of Feingold supporters, compared with 82% of Johnson supporters, firmly back their pick.
  • Although Johnson and Feingold have a similar rating among likely voters, Feingold’s unfavorable rating is higher.  51% currently perceive Johnson favorably while 38% do not.  49% view Feingold positively.  46% do not.
  • Among all registered voters in Wisconsin, Johnson and Feingold are neck and neck.  Johnson has 44% to Feingold’s 42%.

About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:

Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections.  In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.

Complete Marist Poll Methodology

Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:

10/04: WI U.S. Senate Race: Feingold and Johnson in Virtual Dead Heat