October 30, 2010
10/30: Pennsylvania Senate Race
In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 7 percentage points among likely voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, according to this McClatchy-Marist Poll.
This data was collected from Tuesday, October 26, 2010 through Thursday, October 28, 2010, still five days from Election Day.
Click Here for Complete October 30, 2010 PA McClatchy-Marist Poll Release and Tables
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Pennsylvania: U.S. Senate Likely Voters |
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Question: If next week’s election for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are: [If undecided: If you had to decide today, are you leaning more towards:] | ||||
Sestak |
Toomey |
Other |
Undecided |
|
PA LV Oct. 30, 2010 |
45% |
52% |
1% |
2% |
PA LV Oct. 4, 2010 |
42% |
51% |
1% |
6% |
Party ID | ||||
Democrat |
89% |
9% |
1% |
1% |
Republican |
8% |
91% |
<1% |
1% |
Independent |
40% |
51% |
3% |
7% |
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Likely Voters including early voters and those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate N= 461 MOE +/- 5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. |
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The Enthusiasm Game
40% of registered voters in Pennsylvania are very enthusiastic about voting on Election Day. Republicans, conservatives, and men are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats, liberals, and women. The enthusiasm gap hasn’t narrowed since McClatchy-Marist’s previous poll.
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Pennsylvania: Those Very Enthusiastic to Vote 2010 |
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Question: Thinking about next week’s elections overall, would you say you are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all about voting in the elections next week? | ||
October 30, 2010 |
October 4, 2010 |
|
PA Registered Voters |
40% |
38% |
Party ID | ||
Democrat |
36% |
36% |
Republican |
58% |
51% |
Independent |
23% |
20% |
Tea Party Supporters |
57% |
61% |
Enthusiasm of Candidates’ Supporters | ||
Voters for Sestak |
32% |
35% |
Voters for Toomey |
52% |
55% |
October 30, 2010 McClatchy-Marist Poll Pennsylvania Registered Voters including early voters N= 806 MOE +/- 3.5%. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding. |
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Key Findings:
- In a state that Barack Obama carried by 11 percentage points, the president’s approval rating currently stands at 47% among registered voters and 43% among those likely to vote on Tuesday.
- Registered voters in Pennsylvania still divide about whether the worst of the nation’s economic problems are behind us or if the worst is still to come. Voters who are pessimistic about the economy and believe it will get worse are more likely to vote Republican. Those who are more optimistic and believe the worst is behind us are more likely to vote Democratic.
- 57% of registered voters think President Obama inherited today’s economic conditions from his predecessor. 32% say Obama’s policies are responsible for the state of the economy.
- 74% of voters who are likely to vote in Pennsylvania strongly support their choice of candidate. 77% who pull for Toomey and 71% who are behind Sestak firmly back their pick.
- 49% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Toomey while 35% do not. 45% of likely voters in Pennsylvania view Sestak favorably while 40% view him unfavorably.
- Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for U.S. Senate is Sestak 43% and Toomey 39%. In the previous McClatchy-Marist survey, Toomey had 40% to Sestak’s 38% among the entire state’s electorate.
About The McClatchy-Marist Poll’s Methodology:
Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to turnout in comparable elections. In an effort to increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The land-line and cell phone samples were then combined.
Complete Marist Poll Methodology
Related McClatchy-Marist Poll Releases:
10/4: PA U.S. Senate Race: Toomey Leads Sestak by 9 Percentage Points Among Likely Voters