October 3, 2012
10/3: Obama Up by 8 Percentage Points in Ohio
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden lead Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, 51% to 43%, among likely voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. One percent supports another candidate, and 4% are undecided.
“Obama is over 50% in the battle for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “His advantage over Romney continues to be fueled by a wide lead among women and a close contest for the support of men.”
When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, Obama and Biden — 50% — had a 7 point advantage over Romney and Ryan — 43% — among likely voters in Ohio, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. One percent backed another candidate, and 6% were undecided.
- Party ID. Most Democrats who are likely to vote — 95% — are behind Obama while most Republicans who are likely to vote — 91% — back Romney. Among independent voters, 47% support Obama compared with 43% for Romney. Last month, 44% of independent voters backed Romney while 41% supported Obama.
- Enthusiasm. 56% of likely voters are very enthusiastic about voting in November. Looking at each candidate’s supporters, Romney’s backers who are likely to go to the polls — 64% — are slightly more enthusiastic than Obama’s supporters who are likely to cast a ballot — 57%. In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, Romney — 62% — and Obama — 61% — were on fairly equal footing when it came to enthusiasm.
- Intensity of support. 86% of Ohio likely voters are firmly committed to their choice of candidate while 12% somewhat support their pick. Two percent might change their minds, and less than one percent is unsure. Among likely voters who support the president, 88% strongly support him compared with 83% of Romney’s backers who report the same.
- Gender. Obama — 56% — has the advantage over Romney — 39% — among women who are likely to vote. Among men who are likely to cast a ballot, 48% are for Romney while 46% support Obama.
- Age. Younger voters favor the president. 60% of Ohio likely voters under the age of 30 support Obama compared with 33% for Romney. Obama — 54% — also leads Romney — 41% — among those who are 30 to 44. Looking at those 45 to 59, 47% support the president while 46% are behind Romney. Among those who are 60 and older, Obama receives 49% to 46% for Romney.
Looking at registered voters in Ohio including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Obama while 42% are for Romney. Two percent are behind another candidate, and 5% are undecided.
Majority Perceives Obama Favorably…51% Have Unfavorable Impression of Romney
52% of Ohio likely voters have a favorable view of Obama while 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Three percent are unsure.
In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s September survey, similar proportions had these views. 51% of likely voters thought well of the president. 44% had a less than stellar view of him, and 5% were unsure.
Romney continues to have an image problem in Ohio. 51% of likely voters statewide have an unfavorable impression of Romney compared with 42% who have a positive opinion of him. Eight percent are unsure.
Last month, 50% of likely voters had an unfavorable view of Romney while 40% thought well of him. Nine percent, at the time, were unsure.
Veeps Don’t Stand Out to Ohio Voters
46% of likely voters in Ohio have an unfavorable opinion of Vice President Joe Biden. 44% have a positive view of him. 10% are unsure.
When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 46% had an unfavorable perception of Biden while 45% had a positive view of him. Nine percent, then, were unsure.
Looking at voters’ impressions of Paul Ryan, a plurality of likely voters — 44% — views him unfavorably while 40% have a favorable opinion of him. 16% are unsure.
In September, likely voters divided. 42% had an unfavorable opinion of Ryan while 41% had a favorable one. 17% were unsure.
Obama Edges on Economy, Perceived Better on Foreign Policy
Which candidate will do a better job handling the nation’s economy? 48% of registered voters in the state think Obama is the candidate for the job while 44% believe Romney is better prepared to tackle the issue. Eight percent are unsure. Similar proportions of likely voters share these views. 48% have more confidence in the president to turn around the U.S. economy while 45% have this opinion of Romney. Seven percent are unsure.
When NBC News/WSJ/Marist last reported this question in September, 48% of registered voters thought Obama was the better candidate for the economy. 43% said Romney would do a better job on the issue. Nine percent were unsure.
On the issue of foreign policy, Obama — 51% — leads Romney — 39%. Nine percent are unsure. Likely voters agree. 51% of these voters believe the president is more capable to deal with foreign policy issues while 40% say Romney is better skilled in this area. Eight percent are unsure.
Last month, Obama — 52% — was also perceived as the stronger candidate on foreign policy issues by registered voters. 38%, however, thought Romney surpassed Obama in this area. 10% were unsure.
Voters Divide about President Obama’s Job Performance
When it comes to President Obama’s job performance, 48% of registered voters approve while 46% disapprove. Six percent are unsure.
In NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey, 49% gave the president high marks while 44% thought he fell short. Seven percent, at the time, were unsure.
A Nation Off Course?
52% of registered voters in Ohio believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction. 42% disagree and believe it is traveling in the right one. Five percent are unsure.
In September, 51% said the nation needed a new course. 44% said the nation was on track, and 5% were unsure.
Brown Maintains Advantage Over Mandel in U.S. Senate Race
50% of likely voters in Ohio, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democrat Sherrod Brown in the race for U.S. Senate. 41%, however, are for Republican Josh Mandel. One percent supports another candidate, and 7% are undecided.
Brown — 49% — was also ahead of Mandel — 42% — among likely voters statewide in NBC News/WSJ/Marist’s previous survey. Nine percent, at that time, were undecided.
Among registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Brown has 50% to 41% for Mandel. One percent supports another candidate, and 8% are undecided.