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October 26, 2014

10/26: North Carolina: Hagan and Tillis Tied in U.S. Senate Race

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In the contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, 43%, and her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis, 43%, are in a dead heat among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Six percent are undecided, and 6% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.

Hagan and Tillis maintain their support among their respective party’s base.  However, Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote.  A gender gap also exists.  Hagan has a 10 point advantage among women likely to go to the polls while Tillis is up 11 among men.

Complete October 26, 2014 NBC News/Marist Poll of North Carolina

“Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate.”

Poll points:

  • Hagan and Tillis are tied with 43% in the contest for U.S. Senate among likely voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Libertarian Sean Haugh garners 7% of the vote, and 6% are undecided.  In NBC News/Marist’s survey earlier this month, Hagan had 44% to 40% for Tillis.
  • Allegiance falls along party lines.  Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Tillis, 41%, has a 10 point advantage over Hagan, 31%, an increase from the 4 point edge he previously had.  Haugh receives the support of 17% of independents, up slightly from 12%.
  • A gender gap remains.  Hagan, 48%, outpaces Tillis, 38%, among women likely to vote.  Tillis, 49%, leads Hagan, 38%, among men likely to cast a ballot.
  • 58% of likely voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate, up from 50% in early October.  Six percent of voters with a candidate preference might vote differently.  More of Hagan’s supporters, 67%, are firmly committed to her than Tillis’ backers, 54%, are to him.
  • Among North Carolina registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Hagan has 42% to 40% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh.  Nine percent are undecided.
  • Both Hagan and Tillis have higher negative than positive ratings.  48% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Hagan, and 41% have a favorable impression of her.  44% have a negative impression of Tillis, and 40% have a positive opinion of him.
  • Job creation and economic growth, 20%, is the top concern for North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress.  Health care, 16%, and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 15%, capture the second and third spots.  Social Security and Medicare, 12%, follows.  Military action against ISIS and the deficit and government spending each receives 10%.  Looking out for the interests of women, 5%, and immigration, 3%, follow.
  • President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in North Carolina, 37%, remains low among residents.  The president’s score was 39% in early October.

Marist Poll Methodology

Nature of the Sample and Complete Tables