October 26, 2014
10/26: North Carolina: Hagan and Tillis Tied in U.S. Senate Race
In the contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, 43%, and her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis, 43%, are in a dead heat among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Six percent are undecided, and 6% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.
Hagan and Tillis maintain their support among their respective party’s base. However, Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote. A gender gap also exists. Hagan has a 10 point advantage among women likely to go to the polls while Tillis is up 11 among men.
“Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate.”
- Hagan and Tillis are tied with 43% in the contest for U.S. Senate among likely voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Libertarian Sean Haugh garners 7% of the vote, and 6% are undecided. In NBC News/Marist’s survey earlier this month, Hagan had 44% to 40% for Tillis.
- Allegiance falls along party lines. Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Tillis, 41%, has a 10 point advantage over Hagan, 31%, an increase from the 4 point edge he previously had. Haugh receives the support of 17% of independents, up slightly from 12%.
- A gender gap remains. Hagan, 48%, outpaces Tillis, 38%, among women likely to vote. Tillis, 49%, leads Hagan, 38%, among men likely to cast a ballot.
- 58% of likely voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate, up from 50% in early October. Six percent of voters with a candidate preference might vote differently. More of Hagan’s supporters, 67%, are firmly committed to her than Tillis’ backers, 54%, are to him.
- Among North Carolina registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Hagan has 42% to 40% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh. Nine percent are undecided.
- Both Hagan and Tillis have higher negative than positive ratings. 48% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Hagan, and 41% have a favorable impression of her. 44% have a negative impression of Tillis, and 40% have a positive opinion of him.
- Job creation and economic growth, 20%, is the top concern for North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress. Health care, 16%, and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 15%, capture the second and third spots. Social Security and Medicare, 12%, follows. Military action against ISIS and the deficit and government spending each receives 10%. Looking out for the interests of women, 5%, and immigration, 3%, follow.
- President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in North Carolina, 37%, remains low among residents. The president’s score was 39% in early October.