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9/21: An Interview: The 2009 Mayor’s Race

September 21, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

Jay DeDapper is a veteran television political reporter who has covered New York politics for more than a decade. In an interview with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks, DeDapper considers the matchup between New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, and he discusses the impact of the $36 million the mayor has spent on his re-election campaign.

John Sparks
Jay, back in July, 51% of registered voters in New York City told The Marist Poll it was time to oust Mayor Michael Bloomberg from office and elect someone else. Now in that same poll, Bloomberg led Bill Thompson 48% to 35%. Do you sense that, as we get closer to the general election, that the Mayor’s pulling away and widening his lead?

Jay DeDapper
I think there’s a limit to how much of a lead that he can get, even though he’s not a Republican, a registered Republican anymore. He’s not registered in any party. He’s created his own party to run, and he’s running on the independent line. I think that in a city that this is overwhelmingly Democratic, there is a limit to how many votes anybody can get that’s not on the Democratic line. That being said, he is widely seen, and the Marist Poll has shown this, previous Marist Polls have shown this, he’s widely seen to be politically independent and not really a Democrat or a Republican, and I think that appeals to a lot of people. So, I think his wide lead that he has now, and it is sizeable, I don’t think it’s going to grow much more. I think that there is a limit to how wide a lead that he can get in this race.

John Sparks
Now you mentioned he’s an independent. He’s also independently wealthy. He spent a reported $36 million on getting re-elected. Is it the money that makes this an insurmountable race for Bill Thompson?

Jay DeDapper
Well, money is always important and he spent — Mike Bloomberg spent $70 some odd million for the first time around. He spent $80 some odd million last time. There’s been talk that he’d spend $100 million by the time all the final checks are cut in this election, and that’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. Bill Thompson is participating in the public finance system in New York City, which is pretty progressive. It’s one of the most advanced in the country, but it doesn’t account for people who spend all of their own money, and there’s kind of no way to account for that under the law right now. So, it’s a huge disadvantage for Bill Thompson. But, to say that it’s only money, I think misses a point, and that is that there have been lots of candidates with a lot of money that have lost races. In fact, until Mike Bloomberg came along, the rule was you could spend — that super rich people could spend all the money they wanted and didn’t have a very good chance of winning election, all other things being equal. All other things are not equal in this case. Bill Thompson has not been an aggressive, an assertive candidate. He has had fewer public events, campaign events, than Mike Bloomberg, and if you’re the guy who is the underdog in the money race, then you’ve got to out-hustle the guy who’s got all the money. Bill Thompson isn’t out-hustling anybody right now.

John Sparks
So, what would it take for Thompson to win in November?

Jay DeDapper
He would have to become a different candidate. New York … I think New Yorkers, and you look back at the mayor’s races and the mayors that have been elected in the past, New York has a long history of electing characters. There’s, of course, Fiorello La Guardia. There was Ed Koch. There was Rudy Giuliani. Lindsay was in his own way a character. And, in between these characters, there have often been kind of quiet technocratic kind of people. Abe Beame was one. You could argue that Dave Dinkins was. He certainly wasn’t much of a character. He was historic, but he wasn’t much of a character. Mike Bloomberg has turned into a character. As much as he was kind of a colorless billionaire when he first ran, he’s turned into a bit of a character, a little bit a hottie [sic]. The Marist Poll has shown over the years that people don’t really like his attitude. They don’t think he relates to them or that he understands their concerns, but at the end of the day, he’s got a character, and they think he does a pretty good job. Bill Thompson is not a character. He is as colorless as you can get, and he hasn’t demonstrated any knack for becoming a character in people’s minds. In the very short period between now and election day, Bill Thompson would have to become a different person. That maybe is something he can do. Candidates have done that in the past, but he’d have to become a different person.

John Sparks
I was going to follow-up and ask–does he really have enough time to accomplish that?

Jay DeDapper
I think maybe the way I’d like to answer that is: Could a candidate in this amount of time accomplish what has to be accomplished? And, I think in the hypothetical, yes. Bill Thompson is going to have to go from zero to 60 tomorrow to be able to pull this off.

John Sparks
I’m curious about something else. Is Governor Paterson hurting Bill Thompson’s chances to be elected?

Jay DeDapper
I don’t think there’s any evidence of that. Paterson has plenty of his own problems, and that’s a whole other story. He’s gotten tremendously high negatives and a real, real problem with trying to get re-elected next year. But, I don’t think there’s any link in voters’ minds between Bill Thompson and David Paterson. They haven’t appeared together. They aren’t particularly close. Certainly, David Paterson’s not going to come and campaign for Bill Thompson, because Bill Thompson probably doesn’t want David Paterson to come and campaign for him. So, I don’t think that’s his problem. I mean Bill Thompson is not tainted by the leading Democrat in the state having low poll numbers. Bill Thompson is tainted by the fact that he simply is not running a campaign so far that has energy, ideas, attitude, assertiveness, aggressiveness, fire in the belly. There’s no fire in the belly.

John Sparks
Hindsight’s 20/20. Did Anthony Weiner make a mistake by dropping out?

Jay DeDapper
That’s a hard question. I mean, I think most people, most political analysts, myself included, believe that Anthony Weiner had a much better shot at winning — at beating Mike Bloomberg than Bill Thompson did. But, could he have beaten him? I don’t know, and Anthony Weiner in a purely political calculation, I think, looked at the map and said, “Look, I can run again in four years, and I will have been out there in two different cycles. I will have a lot of name recognition. I will be able to continue to raise issues and get free media and talk, and Mike Bloomberg won’t be running again in four years, and I won’t have to face his $80 million or whatever it’s going to be.” I think that Weiner, I’m sure, thinks in his own mind that he made the right choice because he’s a young guy, and he’s looking at the long run. He wasn’t looking at the short-term advantage. It would’ve been a tough race. It would’ve been … I think it would be a much competitive race if it was Anthony Weiner versus Mike Bloomberg than it is shaping up to be with Bill Thompson versus Mike Bloomberg.

John Sparks
You addressed what Bill Thompson would have to do in order to prevail in November, but I want to ask you: What must Mike Bloomberg do to hold onto his lead and to win in November?

Jay DeDapper
Bloomberg has real vulnerabilities, and The Marist Poll, this one and previous ones have pointed it out, and I’ve alluded to at least one of them, people, New Yorkers, the average New Yorker doesn’t think that he understands them nor is particularly concerned about what affects them. He is seen as a fairly aloof kind of sarcastic, not necessarily very nice rich guy, but he’s also seen as someone who is effective. And, in this case and in this economy, effectiveness seems to trump likability, at least so far, at least according to the polls. He has to work on the likability thing though because the danger is that he is seen as even more arrogant than he’s already seen if he simply goes forward assuming that he is going to win because he’s the right guy for the right time, and he’s got the track record to do it. So, I think you are going to see that. I think you are going to see the campaign working on trying to make Mike Bloomberg a little less of the out-of-touch billionaire and a little more of the I may not feel your pain, but at least I understand it billionaire.

John Sparks
Jay, do you think there’s any lingering resentment toward Bloomberg over the third term?

Jay DeDapper
I think that if you polled people, and you asked them that question specifically, and the further away we get it from it, it probably diminishes, but there has always been a lot of lingering resentment, at least in the polls that I’ve seen since this — since the term limits went through. But even at the time that the term limit debate was at its hottest, and the vast majority of New Yorkers said, “We don’t think the term limits should be overturned,” when those same voters were asked: “Well do you think Mike Bloomberg deserves a third term?” almost the same majority who were opposed to overturning term limits said: “Well, yeah, we think Mike Bloomberg should get a chance at a third term.” So, there’s a contradiction in voters’ minds, and I don’t think this has hurt him. I don’t think that whatever lingering resentment there is, I don’t think it’s enough to drive his supporters into the arms of Bill Thompson right now, and Bill hasn’t done a particularly effective job of stoking that resentment. It’s not an issue we’ve heard very much about in the last three months, and if you can’t make that an issue during the slow summer months, the dog days of August, you’re not going to make it an issue in October I don’t think.

John Sparks
I would think in the short time between the primary and the general that he’s going to really have to mount up an attack on the mayor. Having said that, do you think that there’s any chance in that short period of time that the mayor will stumble?

Jay DeDapper
There is. The mayor has shown over his eight years in office a tin ear to the perceptions of him. One of the most egregious cases was when a reporter in a wheelchair in the front row of a news conference inadvertently, or it was thought, had inadvertently played back a little piece of his tape recorder and it sounded like — it was a noise that interrupted the on-going press conference. And, the mayor castigated him in terms that were just nasty. It turned out it wasn’t even this guy’s tape recorder, and it took the mayor awhile to apologize. That kind of thing, and it got some attention in the press, that kind of thing in the heat and the glare of an election battle in the really hot campaigning over the last three or four weeks of campaigning, a talented opponent could take that and really hurt the mayor with it, with that kind of thing. The mayor is capable of that kind of gaffe. He’s demonstrated it repeatedly, and he is certain enough of his own success that his closest advisors are not going to keep him — be able to keep him from making a gaffe like that if it’s going to happen. The question would be: If a gaffe like that happens, would Bill Thompson be able to take advantage of it? That’s the bigger question to me than will the mayor make a gaffe.

John Sparks
Do you think that the Democrats could’ve fielded a more formidable opponent?

Jay DeDapper
Yes. Anthony Weiner, the polls showed repeatedly, would’ve been a more formidable opponent, and clearly, here’s a guy who knows how to get free media. He learned at the feet of Chuck Schumer, the king of free media. He knows how to get attention. He knows how to throw a punch. He knows how to appeal to the resentment about the term limits. He knows how to appeal to the anger there is, especially among ethnic blue-collar workers about the state of the economy and playing outer borough against Manhattan. He knows how do that, and that’s how you’re going to win. That’s how you’re going to beat Mike Bloomberg. Not that it would be an easy thing to do, but he would’ve been a formidable candidate. He was the only name that was out there mentioned that was serious. People talked about Bill Clinton running or something like that. I mean, yeah, Bill Clinton probably would’ve been a formidable candidate, but in terms of the realistic possible candidates, they could’ve fielded someone better, and his name is Anthony Weiner.

John Sparks
Jay, it’s always interesting to talk about your observations. You’ve covered New York politics for well beyond a decade. Anything else that you’d like to comment on the mayor’s race?

Jay DeDapper
I think what’s probably most interesting is this notion, and I’ve alluded to it, but this notion of effectiveness versus likability, and Rudy Giuliani, to some degree, succeeded in the same way. I remember in 1997, we went out to an African American middle class neighborhood in Queens, St. Albans, after Rudy Giuliani was re-elected overwhelmingly. Rudy Giuliani had had a terrible relationship with the African American community from … really from 1989 on … but from 1993 his election on … terrible relationship. He … I don’t recall if he came very close to winning, or he did win in St. Albans. And, when we talked to people on the street: why? They all said they didn’t like him, but crime was down. The streets were safer. Things were better. And, I think, at the end of the day, that voters, as much as we talk about how much voters vote just about who they like, who would they most like in their living room, when you’re talking about incumbency, effectiveness trumps likability, and I think there’s case-after-case of that, at least in New York City, where that is true. And, Mike Bloomberg is not very well liked, but he is well respected, and that, in this year with this economy, with the troubles facing the city, is an advantage that will be very difficult for Bill Thompson to overcome.

9/21: Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

Three Decades of Teaching and Polling

September 11, 2009 | by Marist Poll

We’ve been at it since 1978. Take a look at how far we’ve come!

9/9: School Days: A Parental Breakout?

September 9, 2009 | by Mary Griffith

Mary Azzoli

For many schools, including the New York City public schools, today marks the first day of classes. As I drove into work this morning, I heard a newscaster refer to today as, “Parents Liberation Day.” This sentiment is echoed on ads pimping school supplies across TV airwaves. Granted, summer can be a challenge for parents. Finding activities to keep their little ones (and big ones) busy can be difficult. Full disclosure — I am not a parent. However, is this the kind of message that we want to send to our kids? That parents want, and perhaps, need to be “liberated” from their children? Since when did parenting become a part-time job? It also begs that long suffering issue of schools as babysitters. Perhaps, it’s time for a reality check.

9/3: Vacation from Hell

September 3, 2009 | by Mary Griffith

Disaster? Disaster doesn’t even come close.

Dateline: Summer 1999. Destination: Hilton Head, South Carolina. Twelve family members embark on a mini-family reunion. How could a long weekend of fun in the sun go so awry? A cacophony of events so unforeseen it rivals a Hollywood screenplay.

Lowlight Number 1: Scorching heat & oppressive humidity.

The upside: The backdrop for our trip was beautiful sunny skies. The downside: Those sunny skies were coupled with mercury-rising heat and choking humidity. As soon as we arrived, we were greeted with sweltering temperatures. When the hotel’s bathtub sized pool with bath warm water was taken into consideration, there was little relief. In fact, my uncle tried to get in a round of golf at 7 A.M. and returned dripping in sweat.

Lowlight Number 2: Not being evacuated from a restaurant with a gas leak.

Waiting to eat in a restaurant that will eventually be evacuated — without us.

Yes, you read that correctly. My mom’s cousin, Loretta, is a seafood lover and was looking forward to a good, lobster dinner. So, on either the second or third night of the vacation, we received a restaurant recommendation, and off we went. The night started off great! The décor was wonderful, and we were in a semi-private room upstairs. We ordered a ton of appetizers and drinks, but when it came time for the entrees to arrive, we waited close to an hour and a half for them to reach our table. My family’s patience wore thin, and we couldn’t even find a member of the wait staff to ask what was going on. Then, Loretta decided to go outside and have a cigarette. As she stepped into the humid air, she noticed a number of fire engines. Not thinking anything was wrong with the restaurant we were in, she went to light up. Then, a firefighter came rushing towards her! The restaurant had a gas leak, he informed her, and had been evacuated! That is, everyone inside the restaurant except for the twelve members of my family seated in a now-private, upstairs room. When Loretta returned, our meals had arrived – ice cold. We hypothesized that the restaurant chose not to sacrifice the hefty tab my family ran at the risk of our lives. Infuriated, Loretta’s husband went to the manager who still insisted that we pay our bill. A minor argument ensued, and the only compensation we received was having the drinks knocked off of our check.

Lowlight Number 3: Physical injury while on a wave runner.

After our culinary fiasco, we didn’t think the trip could get much worse. Were we ever wrong! The more adventurous members of the family (the men) hit the ocean by renting a few wave runners. Unfortunately, for one, the term “hit the ocean” was all too literal. You see, my godfather’s nephew (who was visiting from Lebanon) was thrust into the air while doing quick turns on the wave runner. On his way back down, he fell on top of the watercraft injuring his lower back. The problem: Poor William didn’t have medical coverage in the states. He suffered great pain, in silence, for the remaining couple of days of our trip. It was only upon our return to New York did he discover the true extent of his injury – a broken tailbone — after a family friend who is a nurse examined him.

Lowlight Number 4: Shower collapse, leaky air conditioner, and, yes, a roach.

I’m not a snob when it comes to hotel accommodations. I can rough it with the best of them. However, three strikes, and you’re out. When I first got to our room (a well-known chain which shall remain nameless), the air conditioner was leaking and left a puddle all over the floor. No big deal, it happens. We went to the front desk and got a new room. However, the conditions in the inn quickly deteriorated. Forget that the room number placard of our old room was adhered outside our new room. (A quirk, we thought.) But, about midway through the vacation, my mom and I swung by our cousins’ room. When we got there, we were informed that their shower fixtures had caved in. And, to top it all off, on the last night of our stay, we found a palmetto bug (a.k.a. roach) in one of the rooms.

The dark spot on the ceiling is an uninvited guest — a roach.

That was the last straw! My mom and her cousins stormed off to the front desk to complain. In the midst of the hubbub, my mother turned to a security guard who was less than alert at the front door and asked what his purpose was. His response was short and ridiculous, “Stealin’.” That was the end. Loretta flew back to her room and began calling other hotels to see if we could find rooms – even if for the night. No luck. We were stuck for the evening and happily escaped the next morning.

Parasailing was one of the highlights of the trip.

With all of the vacation’s insanity, there were some good moments like parasailing and knocking a volleyball around on the beach. To this day, none of us who were there can believe the events of that trip. Yet, we just laugh it all off!

9/2: Is This the Year?

September 2, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

If this fall’s re-election campaigns of NYC Mayor Bloomberg and NJ Governor Corzine don’t provide sufficient distraction for the staff at The Marist Poll, you can count on the intense rivalry of baseball’s “Three Hundred Club” to test the statistical savvy of Poughkeepsie’s pollsters. Dating back to 1949, two Boston brothers each picked 10 major league batters to see whose total average would be higher. The “Three Hundred Club” was born.

Lee Miringoff

Since then, a collection of baseball buffs have joined the fray, including many of the poll prognosticators at Marist. Unfortunately, as the ol’ professor Casey Stengel used to say, “It is very difficult making predictions, especially about the future.” For the most part, The Marist Poll’s record for picking political winners has exceeded its ability to field a winning lineup of baseball’s best batters.

The breakout year was 2004 when Marist Poll Director Barbara L. Carvalho and I ran one-two for most of the summer (Barbara had won the mid-season prize the previous year.) I faded in the stretch. Barbara was nipped in the final weekend of the 2004 season by mere tenths of a percentage point… well within the error margin she often pointed out, but not enough to win the Tiffany Bowl.

Fast forward to 2009 where current standings place Barbara in second among the club’s 85 contestants. I’m laboring in 11th position. Marist’s Director of Interactive Media Systems Mary Azzoli, Web Senior Editor John Sparks (a distant relative of Casey Stengel), and Program Manager Stephanie Calvano trail. Stephanie is in third place for pitchers. We’re all also keeping an eye on the homers and RBI competition.

All of these baseball numbers are findable on the Three Hundred Club’s website.

9/1: Swine Flu from “Ground Zero”

September 1, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

The swine flu outbreak began last spring when the first cases were reported at St. Francis Preparatory School in Queens, New York. In an interview with the Marist Poll’s John Sparks, Assistant Principal Patrick McLaughlin recalls last April’s outbreak and addresses steps the school is taking this Fall to meet the threat of the swine flu epidemic. Read the full interview below.

John Sparks
One of the first incidents of Swine Flu, or what is now known as H1N1, began at St. Francis. Were you surprised of the outbreak taking place at St. Francis?

Pat McLaughlin
We were very surprised. In fact when we started having some cases come in, we didn’t know what it was, and that was about April 23rd or so of this year. And, it took us a day to find out from the Department of Health that it may have been the Swine Flu going through the building. So, yeah, we weren’t ready for something like that.

John Sparks
Have you ever been able to determine why it took place at St. Francis?

Pat McLaughlin
We had some senior students who went on a trip to Cancun, Mexico, and it was not school sponsored. They went on their own. We know that a couple of those students were ill when they came back from the trip and then came to school while they were ill. So, as we look back, when they entered the school, I guess it was the 19th or 20th of April, quickly the organism, the pathogen started spreading from one student to another. And, as you know, being in a classroom with bodies in close contact, it’s very easy for a pathogen to spread very quickly. So, we think that’s how it started here.

John Sparks
As we approach the flu season, we’re also approaching the beginning of school for the Fall semester. What preparations are you taking to meet the threat of the Swine Flu epidemic?

Pat McLaughlin
Just to say that we’ve been through this once, and that was a great education for us. We did close for a week. We removed people from the building – staff, faculty, and students. We scrubbed the building down. Now, we think coming into September to a new school year, it’s a lot about education, and first and foremost, we’re going to meet with faculty and staff and students, and one of the first things we’re going to say is if you feel sick, don’t come to school. If you have symptoms of a flu, don’t come into the building. We’re going to say that at the assemblies. We’re going to put it on the website. We are going to have it scrolling on monitors that we have set up in the public areas of the building, the lobbies. We’ll have it in much of our paperwork that goes home to parents as well. So, we have to make a stand in terms of educating everyone within the community as to what the symptoms are of any type of flu and what precautions to take. So, that’s going to be one of the jobs we have at hand for the beginning of school.

Our nurse has been traveling throughout the summer to a variety of workshops to give her expertise to other educational administrators as to what she went through, and she also has come up with a plan for the medical office in terms of dealing with those students coming down with any type of illness. And, if they show signs of fever and flu-like symptoms, they’ll be immediately quarantined into a part of our auditorium, and it’s been advised that they wear protective masks as well so they don’t transmit the disease to someone else. So, I think coming into this school year, we’re ready in terms of getting the information out, in terms of educating the people within the community, and ready to just get into action with anything that we’re confronted with.

John Sparks
We conducted a national poll, and we asked the American public how concerned they were about Swine Flu, and about 36% of the American public said that they were very concerned or somewhat concerned, but 64% said that they were not very concerned or not concerned at all. I’m just curious to your reaction to that and whether you anticipate another outbreak of Swine Flu?

Pat McLaughlin
Well, you can me put in the category that says very concerned at this point, because we’re dealing with a population that is a target population for the disease. We’re dealing with a population that is always in close contact, and from our experience in the Spring, we saw how quickly the incubation period for the Swine Flu is. So, it concerns us greatly that we have everyone onboard in terms of the information that we’ll give them, everyone onboard understanding what to do if they feel ill or if they see other people who are ill. So, that’s a great concern for us. And, I would dare there say that any school should be very concerned about the precautions that they need to take. They should be very concerned about knowledge within the building of illness. So, I think that’s something any school has to take seriously coming into the new school year.

John Sparks
Now, I spoke with some people in the health services community who told me that even if they put all efforts and resources toward manufacturing vaccine for H1N1, that there would not be nearly enough and that would also impact the reserves for what we call traditional flu vaccines. I’m just curious, have any of your students been getting vaccinated?

Pat McLaughlin
I can’t speak to that right now, because they have not been in the school yet. Our new incoming freshman class will be in the building starting on Monday and Tuesday. So, that’s the first that we’ll see of them. But we don’t have a measurement on how many students or faculty have gotten the flu shot yet.

John Sparks
You mentioned about your school nurse and some of the things that have been going on. I’m just curious what role the city or state health departments may have been playing in all this since the outbreak last Spring.

Pat McLaughlin
They were a tremendous help to us. We immediately contacted the Board of Health. Again, when it first hit us that, I guess it was the Thursday the 23rd, and we had a number of students come down to the medical office ill, we didn’t know what it was. We didn’t know whether it was a flu, whether there was something in the air or what it was. So, we immediately contacted the Department of Health when we saw the numbers that we were facing. They sent a person in the next day who did some swabs and identified that it was indeed the Swine Flu. So, we followed their direction from that very beginning of the episode, and they’ve been extremely helpful. They were in contact with us through the entire spring semester, the rest of the entire spring semester, guiding us, helping us, giving us feedback, and we have been awaiting their recommendations on what school should do for the upcoming school year. So, we’re going to implement those as well. But, I have to say that the Department of Health in consultation with the Centers for Disease Control and the mayor’s office were a great help to us in getting through this whole episode.

John Sparks
Since that episode last spring, has it had an impact on your enrollment for the fall?

Pat McLaughlin
I don’t get that impression. In freshmen that we talk to and parents of freshmen who are incoming, that didn’t seem to play a role. I think people looked at it as we just got a little bit unlucky here in the spring, and it doesn’t seem to have played a role in the school itself, because I think people know the quality of the education here. They know that the — when they come here, they’re going to get a caring, nurturing environment. So, I don’t think that episode really played a role in enrollment.

John Sparks
I’m just curious, Pat, how you might characterize the feelings of the parents, the students, and the faculty – fearful, cautious, anxious, unconcerned?

Pat McLaughlin
Learned. I think we went through a situation together, and I have to say that when the Department of Health followed up with a survey about what we did here and who got sick and what they did with medical care, we had a tremendous outpouring of parental support, and I think the people within the school also stepped up to keep everything going in terms of the academic work for the students. So, it was… that was, I guess, the most positive thing that could’ve come out of a negative situation was that the community came together and realized that we just got a little bit unlucky, and we have to do the best with it as we could at that point.

John Sparks
I’m just curious in looking back, and hindsight is 20/20, what you might’ve learned from the incident last spring? Was there anything that you would do differently? And, as a result of what happened, I would think that, perhaps, Saint Francis certainly is doing everything possible to deal with this in the future.

Pat McLaughlin
I think if we knew then what we know now, we would’ve implemented the things that we’re going to implement this September. If we knew the Swine Flu was coming our way, there would’ve been a great effort on our part to educate people about the aspects of influenza, of the Swine Flu, and how to prevent it, also what to do if you feel ill. If you have a fever and you feel sick, stay home. And, we had some students who felt sick, had a fever and still came to school and still tried to push it, and that’s commendable that they want to be in school, and they want to learn; but at the same time, it perpetuated the illness within the community and made it worse. So, we learned that about the influenza at that time. We also learned that if we do have a number of students come down with these symptoms, to quarantine them. Our nurse’s office wasn’t big enough to take care of a quarantine at that time. So, now we’ve… in our emergency plan, we have sectioned off a part of our auditorium where we can put those students and isolate them until we can make contact with their parents and have them come up and pick up their child to get medical care. So, I think we learned a lot from that experience, and what we learned, we are now implementing at this point.

John Sparks
Pat, I sure appreciate your time this afternoon. Anything else that you would like to add or speak to in regard to H1N1?

Pat McLaughlin
Well, I just want to say, John, that we do a cleaning during the summer anyway. The building’s spotless when the students come back, and we did the same thing. And, when this first hit on the 23rd, that weekend we spent the money, we brought a crew of our maintenance people in, and they scrubbed down the entire building. So, I’d like to say that we’re ready to go with the school year; we’re prepared, and I’m hoping that the information that we have will help us deal with anything that comes in.

** The views and opinions expressed in this and other interviews found on this site are expressly those of the speakers or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Marist Poll.

9/1: Preventing Swine Flu…An Interview with the CDC

| by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

Should Americans be concerned about H1N1 influenza, and what precautions should they take to be protected from the swine flu? The Marist Poll’s John Sparks talks with Joe Quimby of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. Read the full interview below.

©istockphoto.com/DNY59

John Sparks
Joe, The Marist Poll conducted a national survey of the American public, and we found that 64% of the American public told us that they were not very concerned or not concerned at all about H1N1 Should folks be concerned?

Joe Quimby
Short answer to that is yes, the American public should be concerned about 2009 A H1N1 influenza because flu is very unpredictable. We’ve had over 8,800 hospitalizations to date since April, and 556 people have died in the United States. Although we don’t know the exact number of people who have been ill, as of late May, we knew that well over a million people had either been sick or were sick and certainly that number’s increased. So, people do need to be concerned with this and both seasonal flu.

John Sparks
Well what precautions should people take about H1N1?

Joe Quimby
Well, it’s the same precaution for this flu as for seasonal flu. They need to … if they’re becoming ill, they need to stay home and stay — self-isolate themselves. If they have an underlying health condition, they need to seek attention from their medical provider, particularly people like pregnant women, who, unfortunately, of those who have died, we’re seeing about an unproportional number of deaths of pregnant women, 6% on average, whereas only 1% of the population is pregnant at any one time. People who are asthmatic, other people with underlying health conditions certainly should not wait at all, should contact their health providers. But a generally healthy person who becomes ill should not flood to emergency rooms or whatever and be overly worried. If you’re in generally good health, you’re going to probably pull through this in a couple of days, probably don’t even need to see a doctor, but that’ll be an individual call. But we want people to be prudent about seeking medical care, particularly if they do have an underlying health condition.

John Sparks
You know you mentioned seasonal flu, and we are approaching the seasonal flu season, and of course the word always goes out that people should get inoculated. Should people get H1N1 shots?

Joe Quimby
Well, first of all, a seasonal flu vaccine is in doctor’s offices now as we speak. I know here in Georgia it’s out, and it’s going to be distributed in the coming days across the country if it’s not already in your doctor’s office. So, people should first get a seasonal influenza shot. 80% of the Americans fall into the groups of people who are recommended for seasonal. And ,if you are recommended for a 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine, certainly please get in line. There’s 159 people who are recommended, and people like I talked to before of, with underlying health risk and particularly pregnant women… and healthcare workers and children, school aged children, need to be vaccinated as soon as possible.

John Sparks
You mentioned getting in line, is there enough vaccine for H1N1 for everyone in America that needs it?

Joe Quimby
We believe that there’ll be enough vaccine starting in about middle of October. About 45 million doses will be initially available for those who want to have a vaccine. Like seasonal influenza, this is a voluntary vaccine program. So, we believe that with the initial 45 million and then follow-on distributions in the days and weeks that follow and months that follow, that everybody who wants a vaccine should be able to get one.

John Sparks
I know that CDC works in cooperation with city, county, and state health departments on something like this. I’m just curious what some of these other agencies are doing in preparation for the fear of a pandemic?

Joe Quimby
Well it’s not the fear of a pandemic, we already have a pandemic. It’s getting ready at all levels has been a top priority at all levels of government. As you know, the president called for a flu summit, if you would, in the early days of July, and three cabinet secretaries got together along with hundreds of people at state and local and federal levels to begin their plans, if they already hadn’t. And, I think we’re seeing now with the beginning of schools, some people becoming ill in school settings and colleges and universities, we’re seeing the execution of well played — well laid and planned scenarios to take care of sick people and to keep healthy people healthy.

John Sparks
The last time I remember the country getting this excited about Swine Flu, Gerald Ford was president. I recall lining up at a shopping center and getting a free shot for the Swine Flu. Are we going to see something of that level again?

Joe Quimby
What we will see will be a combination of things. We’ve been effectively distributing flu vaccines through primary care providers, different scenarios for decades, and so we’re going to see a combination of vaccine distributed initially to all the states on a prorated basis so that if 4% of the population lives in a particular state, that’s how much of the initial vaccine they’ll get. And, various states and cities, depending on the population, will adapt and employ different scenarios. So, the first and foremost thing that people can do to find out about vaccines in their area is to contact their primary care provider; and certainly when H1N1 vaccine becomes available, people are going to know about any public offerings in a community setting, in addition to in their physician setting.

John Sparks
Joe, I know it’s hard to look into a crystal ball and into the future and see what we might expect, but do you have any prediction on what we may experience this flu season in regards to H1N1?

Joe Quimby
Actually if I had a crystal ball, it’d be real easy to predict what the flu season would look like, but we don’t have a crystal ball. What we can say is that flu is very unpredictable. We just don’t know what the extent of illness will be when you combine a new influenza strain as the 2009 H1N1 influenza combined with an act of seasonal influenza season. Our seasonal flu season is October to May. We’ve seen the flu activity throughout these past couple months in the summer at unprecedented levels, and not since the pandemic of 1968 have we seen such an active flu activity summer — flu activity in the summer months.

John Sparks
How well would you characterize our preparations? Are we going to be prepared?

Joe Quimby
Well, I think it’s a little too early for us to give ourselves a report card. I think the report card and any kind of grading of such will come afterwards. But, I believe that – – I know in my heart of hearts that there are 14,000 people here at the CDC, and there are thousands more at the federal level and state level and at schools and cities across the country, in health departments that are ready, have been working really hard and you’re going to see a true combined effort. But, you asked me first what can people do, there is a shared responsibility. It’s not just what the government can do for you, it’s what people can do for themselves to protect themselves against becoming exposed. Simple things: Keep your hands washed. Wash your hands with soap and water often. Use alcohol-based hand gels. If they’re coughing, cough into their elbow and avoid the people who are ill, and if you are ill, stay at home, self-isolate and don’t return back to society, be it school or work environment, until you’re free from fever 24 hours without taking anything to suppress that fever. So, there’s some — a lot of personal responsibility that each individual in America can be accounted for.

John Sparks
Joe, I appreciate your time. Is there anything else that you’d like to add?

Joe Quimby
No, just that it’s going to be a very unpredictable flu season and that for each American out there to do their part to protect themselves, their children, their parents, and the people that they live, work, and play with and go to school with. And, if we all work together here, I think we’ll all get through this. But, it is a combined effort at all levels of government and certainly with the personal efforts of the people. We don’t know what’s going to happen, but I think you’re going to see a good effort at all levels.

** The views and opinions expressed in this and other interviews found on this site are expressly those of the speakers or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Marist Poll.

9/1: Swine Flu from “Ground Zero”

8/18: For Better or Worse…Palin Packs a Punch in the GOP

August 18, 2009 | by Marist Poll

If some GOP leaders want Sarah Palin to fade quickly and quietly from the media scene, she is certainly not being particularly cooperative.

Lee Miringoff

With as yet undisclosed electoral plans, Palin packs political clout with rank-and-file Republicans. According to the latest national Marist Poll numbers, 73% of GOPers have a favorable view of the former Alaska Governor, and she ranks right up there with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee as their morning line pick for the 2012 presidential sweepstakes. This is the case despite a slim majority of Republicans who think her early resignation as governor was a mistake.

Is the GOP nomination within her sights? You betcha! Palin could carry her intense following into key caucus and primary states. But, herein lies the rub. Palin trails President Obama by 23 percentage points nationwide in this same Marist Poll.

Cause for GOP worry? Absolutely. Palin attracts only 4% of Democrats in this hypothetical matchup to Obama’s 20% of Republican voters. President Obama may be slipping lately among all-important Independent voters (his marquee bi-partisan appeal may have lost some of its luster). But, he still leads Palin by 15 percentage points with these persuadable voters. And, there is no reverse gender gap in the numbers.

OK … there are still more political scenarios between now and 2012 than there are icicles in Alaska. But, this one spells potential trouble big-time for the GOP. John McCain’s 2008 parting gift to the Republican Party may carry over into the 2012 presidential election cycle with GOP hopes of recapturing the White House evaporating along the way.

8/14: Is the Economy Recovering?

August 14, 2009 | by Marist Poll

By John Sparks

Has the U.S. economy turned a corner, and how is the Obama Administration handling the nation’s economic conditions? Dr. Ray Perryman, economist and founder and President of The Perryman Group, offered his take when he spoke with The Marist Poll’s John Sparks. Read the interview transcript below.

John Sparks
Ray, in our most recent survey, 52% of the American public told The Marist Poll that they approve how President Obama is handling the economy. This is right on the border of being a majority, given the margin of error, so it’s sort of teetering at the midway point. How do you perceive that the Obama administration is handling the economy right now?

Ray Perryman

Ray Perryman
Well, it certainly hasn’t been perfect, but I think they’ve done a good job, and I would have been among your 52% if I would have been in the survey. They inherited some significant problems and took some bold actions. Like a lot of actions that happened with the economy, they get bogged down in bureaucracy. They don’t always move as fast as you would like them to through no fault of anyone. It’s just the nature of the system as it exists today, but on balance, I think the administration’s done a good job.

John Sparks
Now, it’s interesting you mentioned…your belief that he inherited the current economic conditions. In fact, we did poll the public as well, and 74% of the American public told us that they, too, believe that he inherited the current economic conditions, and they are not a result of his own policies. So, I take it that you agree that the problems have been inherited, but when do you think that it will become his problem? In other words, just how patient do you think the American public will be with the president in solving our current economic woes?

Ray Perryman
Well, there’s certainly a lot of people on the other side and a lot of people in various media outlets trying to make it his issue. In fact, even before he was sworn in, some of them were calling it the “Obama Recession,” but I think people do recognize that the seeds of this go way back. A lot of it did happen in President Bush’s administration, but some of it, even the seeds of this were planted in President Clinton’s administration, so it’s not something that happened overnight. It took a series of events and eventualities to make it happen, and a lot of people besides presidents were involved in it. I hope the American people continue to recognize this, but I feel fairly sure over time that number will diminish as people’s memories are just really short on these things.

John Sparks
The mid-term elections will probably be a definitive report card on how the people feel the administration has been handling the economy. Do you have any predictions, if things continue as they are, what we may see next November?

Ray Perryman
Well, I’m not a political forecaster. I’m an economist. But, just making the observations just of what you typically see, you typically see the party out of power make some gains in the mid-term elections. It’ll be interesting to see exactly where the economy is as those elections approach, because if the recovery is in pretty good form, it may work well for the incumbents and the parties in power, but if there’s rising concern about deficits and maybe the economic recovery is not as fast, it’ll favor the ones out of power. I think the stars will add up pretty well for the incumbent, given where I think the economy will be at that time, but nonetheless, I’d be surprised if you didn’t see some attrition just because that’s the typical situation.

John Sparks
50% of the public told us that they believe things are going in the right direction. Now, that certainly is not a vote of confidence. What will it take for folks to believe that we are really, truly headed in the right direction?

Ray Perryman
Oh, I think as much as anything, it’ll take getting some jobs out there, because if people really focus on that, their job security, that’s very important to people. Their stock market is going back up some and the retirement funds and their savings and their pensions gaining some ground back would also help, although a gross domestic product is one thing, and that’s how we measure the economy. For most individuals, they measure the economy based on their own personal situation, and they’re going to have to fill pretty good about job prospects, their own job, jobs of their friends and neighbors and their retirement plans and the things that affect their daily lives, before I think you see that number go up a great deal.

John Sparks
It’s interesting you mention the gross domestic product. I saw another survey that was taken among private economists that was released this week. It indicated that about 90% of them believe that the recession will probably end in the third quarter, and they cited data showing that the gross domestic product was contracting at about a 1% rate compared to around 6.4% in the first quarter. Housing and labor market indicators also suggest we may be turning the corner. Do you think that’s truly the case that we are indeed turning that corner?

Ray Perryman
I think we are. I was one of the first to say I thought we’d see growth in the third quarter this year. I was saying that in the fourth quarter of last year, and I think that it’s still likely we are likely to see that. And, some of the other indicators are telling us the kinds of things that tells us in a recovery — productivity is going up which typically happens as production goes up and people keep the work force pretty steady. And, the inventory numbers are dropping a little bit which means that shelves are getting cleaned out. So, there’s a lot of things telling us we’re in the early stages of an economic recovery right now. Again, the difficulty with that is while those are the official numbers, those are what folks like myself focus on. The average individual doesn’t see the gross domestic product. What they see is their own retirement account, their own job prospects and things of that nature.

John Sparks
I think most of us want to believe that we’ve bottomed out and that we’re slowly starting to turn things around, but I said slowly, and there are marked differences in the speed and strength of a recovery, and in this poll that I cited among the private economists, 17% believe it’ll be a V-shaped rebound. And, yet two-thirds believe there’s more likely to be a W-shaped bounce-back with ups and downs along the way. What do you see, and what are folks telling you?

Ray Perryman
Well, what we’re showing is: I don’t think you’ll see a lot of the W in the sense of the gross domestic product fluctuating from positive to negative territory which is how we usually define the so-called “W” recoveries. I think you’re likely to see the momentum be fairly slow at first, what we call a U-shaped recovery, that is a fairly flat bottom for awhile, but then, once it starts coming back, I’ll think you’ll see a lot of momentum getting into it… I would say this one is going to be sort of a modified U-V. It’s going to be a U-shaped at first, but then we’re going to see a pretty steep comeback a few months down the road.

John Sparks
Now, you mentioned a moment ago, joblessness, and of course, the largest concerns are still concerning jobs, and the joblessness is predicted to peak about 10% this year. What do you see on the horizon for the strength of the American workforce? … What do you think we’re likely to see in the next 12 months?

Ray Perryman
The things you’re likely to see in the next 12 months will be an improvement in the job market, but it’s not likely to happen for a few months. We’re still going to see job losses for the next few months. Hopefully, they will be at a slower pace. We’ve been seeing that. We’re losing 500,000- 600,000 jobs a month earlier in the year. We’re now losing 250,000 jobs in the most recent month. That’s a marked improvement, but it’s a marked improvement in how fast things are going down, and I think it’ll be a few months before you see that turn around. But, in the next year, I think you will start seeing the job market gain momentum. What normally happens is people try to use their existing workforce a lot before they start rehiring as a new recovery starts, simply because they’ve been through a rough time. They don’t want to rehire prematurely. So, they’ll push their workforce as hard as they can. That’s why you’re seeing the productivity numbers starting to tick-up quite a bit in the recent statistics. Right now, the average work week in this country is somewhere around 33 – 34 hours. During the last recession, it got up ahead of 40 hours before you saw a lot of rehiring. So, we have a ways to go before you really see the labor market picture pick up, but it will be looking a lot better this time next year.

John Sparks
Energy prices always have a tremendous impact on all aspects of our economy. Oil is on the upswing again. What kind of impact is that going to have on our economy in the next 12 months?

Ray Perryman
Well, oil prices are up right now, because world demand is beginning to bottom out and come up a little bit, but also simply because of the phenomenon with the dollar. Because oil is priced in dollars, that can cause movement in oil prices. I think the oil prices will probably be somewhat high coming out of the recession, moving into the recovery phase. But, natural gas prices, a lot of other fuel prices will still be lower, because they’re traded on national rather than global markets. They’re not subject to as much speculation, and there’s some excess supply there. So, I think some aspects of the energy market, you’ll be seeing higher prices, but I think a big chunk of the energy market will probably have sluggish pricing for quite some time.

John Sparks
How do you see the stock market responding to all these factors in the next 12 months?

Ray Perryman
Well, the stock market will be something of a leading indicator, and it’s beginning to sort of see some signs of light and react to those. So, it will be volatile because we’re going to continue to see for a long time, a mixture of numbers. One day, the numbers will point in one direction and the next day, the numbers will point in another direction. It’s going to react to the health care debate. It’s going to react to all kinds of things as the next year unfolds. So, I think you’ll see a lot of volatility, but we should see an upward trend, simply because earnings prospects are going to improve, long-range prospects, I think, people perceive them to be better, and that’s really what the ultimate underlying price of stocks is all about.

John Sparks
Thanks so much, Ray, I appreciate your time.

To learn more about Dr. Ray Perryman, visit The Perryman Group’s website by clicking here!

** The views and opinions expressed in this and other interviews found on this site are expressly those of the speakers or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Marist Poll.

7/2: Wedding Memories

July 2, 2009 | by Marist Poll

One’s wedding day is said to be the most important day in his/her life. But, most ceremonies and receptions create special memories for, not only the couple but, just about everyone involved. And, so, from the personal and poignant to even the comical, a few of us here at The Marist Poll decided to share some of our favorite wedding memories. Enjoy!

“My wife Sandy and I were married in the home of some dear friends. We only had 9 people at our wedding… and 2 of them were the two of us! We joke that when we go to the old folks’ home or if we get Alzheimer’s, we’ll have a better shot at remembering the names of all who came. Besides us, there was the couple who owned the house, the pastor and his wife, my dad and my sister, and oh, yes, the photographer. He was a shooter at the ABC affiliate where I was working at the time. He just shot stills, but the big thing about this was that the guy was a rather (understatement) laid-back fellow who was originally from Chattanooga, Tennessee. Unless he was at work, he was always barefooted, so you can imagine how impressed and relieved we were when he showed up for the wedding wearing shoes!

John and Sandy’s Wedding

“We got married February 23, 1991, the day before the ground war began for Gulf War I. Honeymooning in New Orleans, we were at Pat O’Brien’s two days later when word came that the war was over before it even had really begun. Reminiscent of that scene in Casablanca where the Germans and the French sang battling anthems at Rick’s Café, everyone at Pat O’Brien’s got up and began singing ‘America the Beautiful.’ It really was touching.” — John Sparks

“For me, one of the most special moments of a wedding celebration is when the bride is walking up the aisle. I always love watching the grooms’ reaction as he gets his first look at his bride-to-be and patiently awaits her arrival between the sea of wedding guests.

Jason & Julia’s Wedding

“Well, my brother’s reaction did not disappoint. A ‘man’s man’ and definitely not one to ever share feelings or emotions, my sister-in-law’s beauty overwhelmed him. Tears poured down his face and as Julia got about halfway up the aisle, Jason’s face turned white and he nearly passed out. Thankfully, Mom had smelling salts on hand which kept him upright! It wasn’t until after the vows that he was able to collect himself. I guess you never know people’s reactions to that life-changing moment!

“And, I have to give credit to my husband for memorable moments — his surprise photo of me imprinted on the back of his tux shirt was quite the hit when he took off his jacket!” — Sue McCulloch

Mary & Another Wedding Guest

“A few years ago, my brother was a groomsman for one of his best friends. As the couple knelt down before the priest, the words, ‘Help Me,’ appeared in white shoe polish on the bottom of the groom’s shoes. (Apparently, my brother and the best man were busy prior to the wedding.) The entire church had to stifle their laughter. While I typically get choked up at weddings, this was one ceremony that caused a different type of tears — tears of laughter.” — Mary Azzoli

7/2: Tying the Knot: Bridal Showers, Crashers, & Memorable Moments