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Scene from movie Dazed & confused of students standing, sitting, and laying on and inside an orange convertible car

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Movies often serve as perfect time capsules, offering snapshots of what life was like in an earlier time. Take Dazed and Confused. The movie is set in late seventies Texas and focuses on groups of ... Read Now >

5/4: On the Edge of History

May 4, 2011 | by

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Pollsters, in some ways, are like journalists.  We chronicle events, sometimes personal often historic but always with numbers not just words.  We crowd the sidelines forecasting the future and unraveling the past.  On the morning of September 11th, 2001 I found myself in a mid-town hotel preparing to dissect and interpret the election results of New York City’s primary for mayor.  My plans were to review the exit poll for WNBC that afternoon and provide analysis of the election returns that evening.  But, no one’s plans that day went as expected.

caricature of Lee MiringoffMy lasting reflections, beyond the visual images we all share, involve feelings of isolation amid chaos.  Of course, there would be no primary that day.  My route home was temporarily cut off for security reasons as Manhattan truly became an island.  The sirens shattered the silence underscoring the horror that was just beginning to sink in.  The world as we knew it was indeed changing.  When it was finally announced that northern bridges would open, there was only one exit on the west side and national guardsman were posted at every corner.

Soon thereafter, we would do what we do best.  We recorded through polls the emotions and perceptions of, first, New Yorkers and, then, all Americans.  The public had so much to say about terrorism and the impact of those attacks.

Oddly, this past weekend, I found myself in Washington, D.C. for several events including the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner on Saturday night.  It was a fun evening of political satire which camouflaged the plans which the president and his national security team had in place for the next day.

Upon returning from another dinner late Sunday night, I gave a final check of my iPhone only to discover along with the rest of the world that President Obama was about to address the nation on the death of Osama Bin Laden.  Again, there I was, this time in a hotel on 16th Street within sight and sound of the White House.  This time, there was no isolation, no chaos.  The sounds of sirens had been replaced by car horns and cheers of “USA, USA.”  It was a triumphant moment and, yet, at the same time, a reflective and somber one.

Ironically, we had already begun polling New Yorkers in partnership with NY1 in preparation for the 10th anniversary of 9/11 before the events of Sunday night.  Today, we continue to measure how people feel about the War on Terror.  We hope that a milestone has been passed and that public confidence will be different than it was on that fateful day nearly a decade ago or, at least, before Sunday.

5/3: What Do Lee Miringoff and Babe Ruth Have in Common?

May 3, 2011 | by

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

The latest joke circulating The Marist Poll these days (courtesy of JS and MG) goes something like this: “What do Lee Miringoff and Babe Ruth have in common?”  Answer: They both hit 60.  For Ruth, it obviously refers to his prodigious 1927 season when he shattered all records for homers.  For yours truly, it refers to all of us baby-boomers who have now reached 6 decades.

Of course, for the birther club of ’51, it was also the year of Bobby Thomson’s shot heard ‘round the world when the “Giants Won the Pennant!  The Giants Won the Pennant!  Of course, “The Yankees won the series!” But, I digress.

Now, I recognize this probably doesn’t qualify for side splitting (or bat splitting) humor.  But, you new media, blog reading youngsters need to realize the years, and apparently, the decades roll by.

So, how does a number crunching pollster come to terms with advancing, or perhaps, retreating middle age?  Why not let the public decide.  And, that’s exactly what we’ve been doing at The Marist Poll on this issue for over 20 years.  Each year, as May 3rd approaches, we ask as part of a national sample whether people consider my age to be “young, middle-aged, or old?”  And, each year, I await the findings with no less zeal than an election eve poll on a closely contested presidential race.

In the past, there have been certain birthday polls that were potentially more ominous than others.  The switch from 39 to 40 and the hazards of turning 50 come to mind.  Yet, my faith in public opinion (and no doubt an aging population) kept the numbers intact.  But now, the big 6-0 is on the table and anyway you slice it that translates into a mess of birthday candles.

Does being 60 years old shake the public’s perception of middle age?  Well, sort of.

The good news:  63% of adults nationwide think someone who is 60 years old is still middle-aged.  Not too shabby.  (I know that technically means I would have to reach 120.  But, we’re talking perceptions here not actuarial tables.).  Under the heading of “misery loves company, “ 26% of people who have already turned 60 think that even if you were born in 1951, you should still be considered young.  Only 15% of my new decade-mates think it is old.  Well, that’s it for the good news.

Now, for the bad news:  Last year, 72% thought being 59 was middle-aged.  That makes this year’s drop to 63% too big to ignore.   Ouch!

And, if that isn’t bad enough, let’s add another wrinkle to the aging data.  A full 23% think, despite the dyed hair, the sixth decade makes you old compared to only 13% who think you remain young.  We’ll skip the cross-tabs containing the views of those under 30 years old.  Didn’t we use to say “you can’t trust anyone under 30?” Or, was it the other way around?

Well, that pretty much wraps it up for this year.  If the “Babe” and I can both hit 60, does that mean next year that my 61st birthday needs to be referred to with an asterisk… “61*”   (If you’re puzzled by this reference, just ask someone who remembers Roger Maris).

Ok.  Where’s that cake with all those candles?

Table: How Old is 60?

Marist Poll Methodology

Lee Miringoff discusses hitting the big 6-0:

4/29: Political Grab Bag

April 29, 2011 | by

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

The recent national McClatchy-Marist Poll contains many interesting nuggets.  Here are a few worth examining more closely:

Obama in Trouble?

The numbers suggest that President Obama’s re-election prospects could be in jeopardy.  With everything going for him in ’08, he tallied 53%.  Now, only 37% of the electorate tells us they would definitely vote to re-elect him.

“Why Not Me,” Asks the GOP Field

The GOP clearly wants to run against Obama in the worst possible way, and, so far, that’s exactly what they’ve been doing.  With a potential field of more than a dozen candidate wannabes, no one has come forward who tops Obama.  In fact, it is hard to distinguish a top tier of challengers.  “The Donald” is taking most of the oxygen out of the room leaving the rest of the field trying to catch their breath.  In electoral politics, it is still early.  But, the adage of needing someone to beat someone still reigns in politics.  And, so far, the GOP has to be worried over what they have to offer.

Pointing an Economic Finger

There’s plenty of blame to go around, but…

I must admit to being surprised by the 63% of the national electorate in the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll who still thinks that President Obama largely inherited the country’s economic woes.  The percentage is down from the 80% who expressed this view two years ago.  But, you’d think that by now more of the recession minded voters would be placing their displeasure at the doorsteps of the current occupant of the White House.  If these numbers hold as the president swings into campaign mode, expect Obama to mention it every now and then.  Maybe a little more than that!

Tea-Partiers…Are You serious?

Well, it seems like I’m surprised yet again from the recent national poll.  This time, it’s the Tea Party crowd that caught me off guard.  On the question of cutting Medicare and Medicaid to deal with the deficit, 70% of these anti-spending, anti-big government voters object to going after these programs.

What’s a Washington Pol to Do?

And now, for the understatement of the year (decade? ages?)… Voters around the nation are very dissatisfied with the political leadership in Washington.  64% think the nation is headed in the wrong direction.  President Obama’s approval rating is stuck at 40-something.  But, only 34% approve of job the Congressional Democrats are doing.  As for the beneficiaries of last November’s political shellacking of the president, well, the GOP in Congress bottoms out at a 30% approval rating.

The Congressional Top Spot

Not surprisingly, the top priority for voters is for Washington to reduce the deficit.  But, the devil is definitely in the details.  There is a wide chasm between the public sentiments and what Washington is likely to deliver.  A majority of voters, 54%, do not want to reduce military spending.  A full 80% oppose cuts in Medicare and Medicaid.  And, more than two out of three voters oppose raising the debt ceiling to deal with the federal budget deficit.  The Obama proposal to raise taxes on the wealthy has substantial support with voters but will clearly face major obstacles in becoming law.

What’s a Washington pol to do?  So far, the public has been served with very little beyond partisan bickering and posturing and the approaching elections are unlikely to help.

4/28: Recovery … What Recovery?

April 28, 2011 | by

By Barbara Carvalho

You’d think with the “official” economic recession long over, according to the calculations of economists, and with President Obama and Wall Street imploring the Congress not to do anything to disrupt the supposed economic rebound, that maybe, just maybe, it would show up in the national poll numbers.   Well, hold onto your seats, folks, because it doesn’t!

So, what’s going on in the realm of public opinion?  Is the public not plugged into what the economists know? Or, are the economists not in touch with what the public continues to experience?

About 7 in 10 Americans, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll, still believe the nation is mired in an economic recession.  Admittedly, this represents a drop from the 79% who felt this way in December, but, it’s consistent with the 71% who shared this view in January.

And, what about the future?  A majority of Americans, 57%, think the worst is yet to come for the U.S. economy.  Only 39% tell us the worst is behind us.  That’s a flip in the numbers from January when the holiday economic bounce led 39% of people to think the worst was yet to come but an encouraging 54% thought the worst had passed.

Although people divide between those who think their personal finances will get better or worse in the coming year, this isn’t exactly anything to write home about.  Instead, it’s a departure from prior polls when more people thought their personal finances would improve in the future instead of worsen.

How does this translate for President Obama and his re-election prospects?  Well, already 57% of voters nationwide disapprove of his handling of the economy, typically an ominous sign for an incumbent.  But, voters don’t yet blame him for sky-rocketing gas prices, and by more than 2 to 1 they think these economic conditions are mostly something he inherited rather than the result of his own policies.  Expect the president to periodically remind voters of this perception as he transitions into campaign mode.

3/31: Third Term: A Bridge by Any Other Name

March 31, 2011 | by

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

Now that Ed Koch has had the Queensboro Bridge named after him, maybe the “How Am I Doing?” former mayor might be able to teach the current occupant of City Hall a thing or two about how hard it is to bridge the gap between a second and third term.  When it comes to how he’s doing, Mayor Bloomberg is learning that he isn’t immune from 3rdterm-itis just like Koch and former Governor Mario Cuomo before him.  They both learned the hard way.  Bloomberg is also struggling to make the grade.

What is it about third terms that makes for the growing unpopularity of chief executives?  When first elected, freshly minted officeholders typically ride into office on a wave of change and energy.  Their enthusiastic followers have been promised a new day.  The first termer has accumulated political capital as his followers have invested in the new administration.

If handled wisely, the new leader can successfully strategize about his re-election prospects which usually incorporate a “we need to finish what we started” ring to it.  Re-election is never guaranteed but seems to be a frequent happening even in these change-oriented, turbulent times.

Then, the itch for a third term shows up and it’s off to the races once again.  The problem is in finding a new rationale for running and governing. Now, in the case of Mayor Bloomberg, term limits presented a major obstacle. He eked out a surprisingly close win over an underfunded opponent.

But, according to the latest Marist Poll, his approval rating has sunk, his legacy is on shaky ground, and he is plagued by a series of missteps that threaten to make his remaining years in office difficult. How’s he doing? Not so hot. Will his recent TV ads resurrect his third term?  Stay tuned, but the odds are long.

3/30: What Is a Yankees Fan to Do?

March 30, 2011 | by

By Stephanie Calvano

Play ball!!  I’ve waited through a very long, cold winter to hear those words.  And now it’s here, it’s here … it’s finally here!  It’s baseball season!  Although the 2011 baseball season is still in its infancy, in New York, it’s never too soon to talk about the postseason.  In a recent New York City Marist Poll, we asked Yankees and Mets fans who they would root for in the most unfortunate World Series matchups.  Mets fans were asked who they would root for if the Yankees were playing the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series.  61% of New York City Mets fans said they would keep it in the New York family and cheer on the Yankees, and 34% would support the Phillies.  I wonder if this was actually the case in 2009?!?  When asked who they would root for if the Mets were playing the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, Yankees fans were a little kinder to their cross-town rivals.  83% of New York City Yankees fans said they would be in the Mets corner, while 14% said they would rally behind the BoSox.

Stephanie Calvano

As a Yankees fan, the thought of this hypothetical matchup put my stomach in knots and left me wondering what I would do if this horror actually came to pass.  After much thought and rationalization, I still can’t definitely say what I would do.  Initially, I thought I would support the Mets over the Red Sox.  If my New York team didn’t make it to the World Series, why not root for another New York team?  But, upon further reflection I started digging a little deeper.  In order for the Red Sox to advance to the postseason and ultimately the World Series, they would have had to have a better season than the Yankees.  So, if the Sox won the World Series, at least I would know that my Bombers were beaten by the best.  It falls under the same logic that had me rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl.  They beat the Giants and it made me feel better about Big Blue’s demise to know it was the Super Bowl Champs that put the brakes on their postseason chances.  This kind of thinking also made me a fan of the Duke women’s basketball team after they eliminated the Marist Red Foxes from the 2011 NCAA tournament in a close contest.

So, what’s my conclusion?  The answer is “I don’t know.”  All I can hope for is that it’s a decision I never have to make.  And, if that World Series matchup does ever happen, check back with me … I might be rooting for the New York Red Sox or the Boston Mets!

Until then … happy baseball season!

3/30: Media Advisory — Dyson Foundation/Marist Poll Announces: “Striking a Balance: New Yorkers Speak Out on Rightsizing Local Government”

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For media inquiries and technical assistance:

The Marist Poll, 845-575-5050

Lee M. Miringoff

Mary Azzoli

The Dyson Foundation

Diana M. Gurieva, 845-790-6312

Steve Densmore, 845-234-8713

What: Faced with high taxes, rising costs, and declining financial support from state and federal governments, how can local governments still provide essential services?  Is rightsizing local government the answer?

Funded by the Dyson Foundation and conducted by the Marist Poll, this survey of 4,500 New York State residents takes an in-depth look at New York State, as a whole, and nine regions — the Capital Region, the Adirondacks, Western New York, the Finger Lakes, Central New York, the Mid-Hudson Valley, the Lower Hudson Valley, New York City, and Long Island.  The study answers:

  • Where do New Yorkers stand on the issue of local government consolidation?
  • What are the arguments for and against consolidation?
  • Which services – schools, police, fire, parks, water, sewage, public transportation, and prisons — do New Yorkers support or oppose for consolidation?

Who: Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, Robert R. Dyson, President of the Dyson Foundation, and Diana M. Gurieva, Executive Vice President and CEO of the Dyson Foundation

When: Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 12 p.m.

Where: LCA Press Room, the Legislative Office Building in Albany

Remote audio and video opportunities are also available. Lee M. Miringoff and a representative from the Dyson Foundation will conduct a telephone conference call immediately following the press conference at 1:30 p.m. A remote satellite video tour will also be held beginning at 2:30 p.m. Satellite interviews must be booked by 5 p.m. on Wednesday, April 6, 2011. To book a satellite interview or receive conference call information, call Mary Azzoli, Director of Interactive Media Systems at the Marist Poll, at 845-575-5050.

3/16: An Overdue Visit to “the Garden”

March 16, 2011 | by

By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

This week I found myself at Madison Square Garden checking out Ranger Blue.  They didn’t disappoint with a 6 to 3 win over the expansion team (I guess I’m a little too much of a traditionalist) New York Islanders.  “Gooooaaallll… Hey, Hey, Hey!”  Rangers fans know what this means.  I was able to follow most of the action but didn’t actually see the goal cross the crease until the score reached 4 to 2.

My one and only hockey game prior to last night was March 21, 1965, a mere 46 years ago.  No one ever accused me of being a rabid hockey fan.  But, that game was memorable.  You can make up your own version of the old joke “I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out.”  Because what I saw back then, didn’t much resemble a hockey game.  The Toronto Maple Leafs trounced the hometown Rangers 10-1.  I recalled the score being 11-0, but memory clearly plays tricks on you with the passage of time.  Was this the biggest trouncing in Ranger history?

Ok, maybe hockey isn’t in my blood.  My visits to MSG over the years have been for several political conventions where the outcome is pretty much known in advance or for competitive events, like the Westminster Dog Show, where the contestants have more bark than bite.  Will last night’s victory start a trend not only for this wayward hockey fan but for this potentially play-off bound team?  Will the Rangers hoist the Stanley Cup this year at MSG as others have become their political party’s nominee or won Best in Show?  Will I ever attend a Knicks’ game?

3/9: Is Good, Good Enough?

March 9, 2011 | by

By Barbara Carvalho

The release of the latest national job numbers has been met with cautious optimism from those waiting for momentum in the economic recovery.  Boosted by a jump in private sector hiring, unemployment has fallen below 9% for the first time in memory.  Is it possible these new numbers represent an end to what has been largely a jobless recovery so far?

Although “growth” has replaced “decline” in the economist’s lexicon, you don’t have to be a student of Tom Lehrer’s new math to see that the numbers don’t yet exactly add up to a healthy economy.  First, nearly 14 million Americans are actively, but unsuccessfully, seeking work.  That’s still way too high.

Second, when you include people working part-time and those thought to be so discouraged to have stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate is still hovering around 16%.  No wonder it doesn’t feel like the nation has sufficiently clawed its way out of the economic slump.

Finally, if you include a variety of reasons for Americans staying on the work force side lines, overall, less than two-thirds of adults are considered to be in the work force.  Bottom line: you aren’t counted as unemployed if you aren’t in the work force.  Anyway you tally the equation, this represents the lowest worker participation rate in more than two decades.

Marist Poll trend data in recent months has shown that the recession remains a reality in the minds of most Americans although there has been a drop in the percentage who thinks so.  Also, a majority believe that the worst for the economy is now behind us.  To the degree that momentum counts in decisions about hiring and spending, the hope for continued improvement in the economy is there.  So, is the view that we still have a long way to go.

3/9: Now, Why Didn’t I Think of That

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By Dr. Lee M. Miringoff

I caught a piece in Sunday’s (3/6/11) New York Times about the Gallup Poll’s statistical profile of the happiest person in America.  Gallup has been collecting daily data on President Obama’s approval rating and much more, too.  (I doubt Obama is the happiest man in America, but being President is a good gig nonetheless).

miringoff-caricature-430Well, it turns out that the happiest person is tall, Asian-American, an observant Jew, over 65 years old, married, has children, lives in Hawaii, has his own business, and a six-figure income.  And, if you haven’t had your fill of kosher egg rolls yet, they actually discovered Alvin Wong who is a perfect match!  (The picture in The New York Times shows him with a broad smile.  What else?)

At the Marist Poll, we also enjoy the fun side of polling.  From our annual New Year’s resolution poll, to Americans’ picking their most annoying word or phrase… whatever… Our longest running gag poll strikes close to home.  For more than two decades, we have asked Americans whether they consider my age to be young, middle-aged, or old?  How better to find out what the nation thinks of my advancing age.

So far, so good.  People think someone born in 1951 is middle aged.  The cross tabs are even more positive especially among those who are 65 years of age or older.  How’s that for pollster spin!

But, May 3rd is just around the corner and so is the big 6-0.  I fear the numbers are likely to shift dramatically despite Alvin Wong’s happiness at 69.

In the meantime, hat’s off to my friends at Gallup for cushioning the blow.