Going into tomorrow’s primary for New York City mayor, Bill de Blasio has the support of 36% of Democrats who are likely to vote, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee. Bill Thompson battles the onetime frontrunner, Christine Quinn, for second place. Both candidates trail de Blasio by double digits.
Among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
- 36% Bill de Blasio
- 20% Bill Thompson
- 20% Christine Quinn
- 7% Anthony Weiner
- 5% John Liu
- 1% Erick Salgado
- 1% Sal Albanese
- <1% Randy Credico
- <1% Neil Grimaldi
- 1% Other
- 8% Undecided
POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll
“Bill de Blasio leads Quinn among women and Thompson among African Americans,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “His campaign is being fueled by Democratic voters’ dislike of extending term limits, the policy of stop and frisk, and of course, the Dante effect.”
Just three weeks ago, Quinn — 24%, de Blasio — 24%, and Thompson — 18% vied for the lead among likely Democratic voters. In that previous NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, Anthony Weiner received the support of 11% while 5% backed John Liu. Two percent were behind Erick Salgado while Sal Albanese and Randy Credico each received 1%. Less than one percent supported Neil Grimaldi, and 2% were for another candidate. 12%, at that time, were undecided.
From where do the candidates receive their support?
- De Blasio does better among likely Democratic voters who are both white and liberal — 43%. He does well among likely Democratic voters in Brooklyn — 40% — and Manhattan — 40%. De Blasio also does well among likely Democratic voters who are African American — 39%, men — 38%, voters 45 or older — 38%, or those who consider themselves to be strong Democrats — 38%.
- Although Quinn does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters, she does well among those who live in Manhattan — 30%, those who are Jewish — 29%, or those who are white Catholics — 26%.
- Thompson also does not lead among any group of likely Democratic voters. However, he does well among those who live in the Bronx — 26%, those who live in union households — 26%, and those who are African American — 25%.
How strongly do likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for mayor support their choice of candidate? 53% strongly support their choice of candidate while 33% are somewhat committed to their pick. 13% report they might vote differently, and 1% is unsure. 55% of de Blasio supporters say they strongly back their candidate while 53% of likely Democratic voters who prefer Thompson and 51% who pick Quinn express a similar intensity of support for their choice.
At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:
- 37% Bill de Blasio
- 21% Bill Thompson
- 19% Christine Quinn
- 7% Anthony Weiner
- 5% John Liu
- 1% Erick Salgado
- 1% Sal Albanese
- <1% Randy Credico
- <1% Neil Grimaldi
- 1% Other
- 8% Undecided
Looking at registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 33% back de Blasio. Quinn receives the support of 21% while 20% are behind Thompson. Weiner garners 9% of the vote while Liu has 6%. Salgado and Albanese each has the backing of 1%. Credico and Grimaldi each receive less than 1%. One percent of New York City registered Democrats back another candidate, and 9% are undecided.
Last month, 24% of registered Democrats citywide supported Quinn. De Blasio received the support of 21%. 16% were for Thompson, and 12%, at the time, were behind Weiner. Liu had the support of 6% of New York City Democrats. Two percent were for Salgado while Albanese garnered 1%. One percent backed Credico while less than 1% was for Grimaldi. Three percent wanted someone else, and 15% were undecided.
De Blasio Leads Quinn and Thompson in Possible Runoff Races
If none of the candidates receives 40% of the vote in the primary, a runoff will be held. How do the candidates fare in such a situation?
Among New York City Registered Democrats:
- De Blasio — 56% — leads Quinn — 34%. 10% are undecided. De Blasio has opened up a lead over Quinn. In August’s survey, 44% of registered Democrats backed de Blasio compared with 42% for Quinn. 14%, at that time, were undecided.
- Against Thompson, de Blasio also has the advantage. Here, 50% of registered Democrats are for de Blasio compared with 38% for Thompson. 12% are undecided. Last month, 44% backed de Blasio while 36% were for Thompson. At that time, one in five — 20% — was undecided.
“Bill de Blasio is within striking distance of avoiding a runoff, but he still has some ground to cover to pull this off,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If there is a runoff, de Blasio starts as the early favorite.”
Quinn’s Negative Rating Continues to Rise
Quinn’s image has been tarnished in the eyes of many New York City Democrats. Less than one month ago, a majority of registered Democrats had a positive view of Quinn, but her favorable rating has continued to erode. In contrast, de Blasio is the candidate most positively viewed. Thompson also has a positive rating from a majority of registered Democrats citywide while Anthony Weiner’s favorability continues to scrape bottom.
- About two-thirds of registered Democrats — 66% — have a favorable impression of de Blasio while 21% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 13% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 59% of Democrats thought well of de Blasio, 14% had a negative view of the candidate, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
- When it comes to Thompson’s favorable rating, 59% have a positive opinion of him. 21% have an unfavorable view of him, and 20% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. In August, 56% had a favorable view of Thompson. 18% had an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
- Just 46% of registered Democrats now have a favorable view of Quinn while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of her. 12% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her. In August, 54% of registered Democrats thought highly of Quinn. 32%, at that time, had an unfavorable impression of her, and 13% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
- Only 28% of registered Democrats have a favorable opinion of Weiner. 64% have an unfavorable view of him while 7% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him. There has been little change on this question since last month when 26% had a favorable perception of Weiner, 63% had an unfavorable view of him, and 11% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
End Stop and Frisk, Say 52%… de Blasio Bests Competition on Issue
More than half of New York City registered Democrats — 52% — do not want the next mayor to continue the controversial policy of stop and frisk. 40% want the practice to be continued, and 9% are unsure. When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 48% of registered Democrats wanted to put an end to stop and frisk. 44% wanted the policy to continue, and 8% were unsure.
With which candidate do New York City registered Democrats most closely identify on this issue? 37% report de Blasio’s position on stop and frisk comes closest to their opinion. 22% believe Thompson’s stance on the issue best reflects their own while 21% think Quinn’s position on stop and frisk is closest to their view. Three percent believe another candidate is the closest match, and 17% are unsure.
De Blasio Viewed as Candidate Most Capable of Making City Affordable
While almost six in ten registered Democrats in New York City believe making the city more affordable is out of the next mayor’s control, nearly four in ten Democrats say Bill de Blasio is the candidate who would be most able to ease the cost of living for the average family.
59% of registered Democrats citywide believe the cost of living in New York City is beyond the mayor’s control. 35% think the next mayor will be able to make the city more affordable, and 6% are unsure. In June, 58% of registered Democrats said making the city more affordable was out of the mayor’s control. 35%, then, believed the next mayor could make the city more affordable, and 7% were unsure.
39% of registered Democrats have the most confidence in de Blasio to make the city more affordable. 24% say Thompson is the candidate best suited to take on the challenge while 20% say Quinn is most capable of improving the cost of living for the average family in New York City. Four percent believe another candidate would be best able to make the Big Apple more affordable, and 13% are unsure.
How many registered Democrats in the city think it is an affordable place to live? Just 12% think New York City is affordable. This includes 2% who say it is very affordable and 10% who believe it is affordable. A majority — 56% — reports it is not very affordable, and 33% say it is not affordable at all. When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on June 27th, 14% of Democrats considered the city to be very affordable or affordable. 57% reported it was not very affordable, and 28% thought it was not affordable at all.
Paying a Toll for Extending Term Limits?
In 2008, term limits were extended to allow Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for a third term. When it comes to their vote for mayor now, do registered Democrats in New York City care whether or not a candidate supported that extension? While 52% report it makes little difference to their vote, 36% say it makes them less likely to vote for such a candidate. Only 9% report it makes them more likely to back a candidate, and 2% are unsure.
From the Stump to the Tube… de Blasio Gains Most from Campaign Commercials
A majority of registered Democrats — 51% — who have seen a campaign television commercial for de Blasio, Quinn, and Thompson think de Blasio’s ads top the charts. 20% say Thompson’s commercials are best while 16% believe Quinn’s campaign ads are most appealing. 13% are unsure.
What kind of an impact are these campaign television commercials having? 59% of registered Democrats who have seen an ad for de Blasio say they like him more after viewing it. 16% believe the information they gathered from the commercial made them like him less while 22% say the ad made no difference. Three percent are unsure. 73% of registered Democrats report they have viewed a television ad for de Blasio. 25% have not, and 2% are unsure.
When it comes to Thompson, a majority of those who have seen one of his television commercials — 51% — say the ad made them like Thompson more after they saw it. 15%, however, say it had a negative impact on their opinion of the candidate, and 29% say it made no difference. Four percent are unsure. 69% of registered Democrats citywide have seen a Thompson television commercial. 29% have not, and 2% are unsure.
While the television commercials for de Blasio and Thompson have been well received by registered Democrats, the same cannot be said for Quinn. Just 36% of registered Democrats who have seen a television ad for Quinn say it made them like her more. 33% report it made them like her less, and 28% say it did not have an impact. Three percent are unsure. 72% of registered Democrats have seen a television advertisement for Quinn. 26% have not, and 2% are unsure.
NYC Comptroller’s Race Too Close to Call
In the Democratic contest for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer — 47% — and Scott Stringer — 45% — are in a tight contest among likely Democratic voters in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee. Less than one percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.
In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s August survey, 54% of Democrats who said they were likely to vote in the primary, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, backed Spitzer. 36% were for Stringer, and 1% was behind another candidate. Nine percent were undecided.
When it comes to intensity of support, 54% of likely Democratic voters with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice of candidate. 32% are somewhat behind their selection for comptroller while 13% might vote differently. One percent is unsure. 57% of likely Democratic voters who support Stringer are firmly committed to him. This compares with 51% of Spitzer’s backers who strongly support him.
At a lower turnout, among very likely Democratic primary voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, Scott Stringer — 47% — is closely matched with Eliot Spitzer — 46%. One percent supports someone else, and 7% are undecided.
“Stringer has closed a once double-digit lead by Spitzer to make this a tossup,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If turnout is low, Stringer’s chances of winning improve.”
Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, 49% are for Spitzer compared with 41% for Stringer. One percent want to elect another candidate, and 10% are undecided.
In August’s survey, Spitzer had the support of 53% of these voters compared with 34% who supported Stringer. One percent, at that time, was for another candidate, and 11% were undecided.
Bloomberg Approval Rating Status Quo
46% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office. This includes 14% who think he is doing an excellent job and 32% who believe he is doing a good one. 33% rate Bloomberg’s performance as fair while 19% say he is performing poorly. Three percent are unsure. Registered Democrats have a similar impression of how the mayor is doing in office. 44% approve of Mayor Bloomberg’s job performance while 54% do not.
When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist reported this question in August, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks. 31% thought his job performance was fair while 21% said he fell short. Five percent, then, were unsure.
Voters’ Impressions of City’s Direction Little Changed
47% of registered voters citywide think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction. 43% believe it is moving on the wrong path, and 10% are unsure. The city’s registered Democrats share this view. 47% are upbeat about the city’s trajectory, and 44% think it must change its course. Nine percent are unsure.
In August, 46% of registered voters said the city was on the right track. 40% believed it was on the wrong course, and 14% were undecided.
In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013. The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%. They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.
“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “That makes for a very fluid contest.”
When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City. Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide. At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer. 27%, then, were undecided. Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.
Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty
Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013. Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.
New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy
How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?” The electorate divides. Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race. 16% are unsure.
Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring. This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.
Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer’s sock-clad sexcapades earned him a place in New York political infamy. But, can he reform himself in the eyes of New York State voters and resurrect his political career?
Nearly six in ten registered voters in New York State — 58% — do not want Spitzer to run for statewide office this year. 30%, however, do want him to re-enter the political scene for the upcoming New York State elections, and 12% are unsure.
New York State voters may not have short memories, but fewer members of the electorate, compared with those seven months ago, are now opposed to a Spitzer political comeback. It’s not that many more voters have warmed up to the idea of “Candidate Spitzer.” It’s that more are just unsure. In Marist’s September 2009 survey, 69% did not want Spitzer to run in 2010 compared with 27% who did, and 4% who were unsure.
“Eliot Spitzer’s political scars remain, although for some New Yorkers, they may have faded a bit,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Eventually, voters may go for the idea of Spitzer running for office but not yet.”
Although a majority of voters do not want the former governor to run for office this year, the electorate isn’t ruling out a political return for Spitzer in the future. When asked if he should ever run for New York State office again, voters divide. 45% think he should hit the campaign trail again while 48% think his political career is over. 7% are unsure.
But, advocating a Spitzer comeback doesn’t necessarily mean voters like the former governor. Only 28% of voters have a favorable impression of Spitzer compared with 50% who have an unfavorable view of him. 22% are unsure.
Public vs. Private: The Spitzer Sex Scandal
If Eliot Spitzer runs for public office, should his previous sex scandal be a matter for public debate or left as a private issue? Voters statewide divide. 49% think it should be a public matter while 48% say it should be a private one. 3% are unsure.
It’s a Blank Slate
If Spitzer were to make a bid for public office in New York State this year, voters are all over the map when it comes to which office he should seek. 22% say Spitzer should make a bid for New York State Comptroller. 21% think he should attempt to reclaim his gubernatorial post. A fifth of voters would prefer to see him run for an office with which he is very familiar, New York State Attorney General, and 14% believe he should run for U.S. Senate in New York. 23% are unsure.
NYC Voters to Spitzer, “Don’t Spoil the Big Apple”
Nearly two-thirds of voters in New York City — 66% — do not want Spitzer to enter New York City politics and run for mayor in 2013. 24%, however, think a bid for mayor would be a good idea. 10% are unsure.
How low can New York Governor David Paterson’s job approval rating go? Based on the latest Marist Poll numbers, it can still go lower, but not by much! Not quite one-fifth of New York registered voters statewide — 19% — report that Governor David Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. That is a seven percentage point drop since The Marist Poll last asked this question in its March 2009 survey. In fact, voters are so dissatisfied with the governor’s performance that a majority — 51% — say they would prefer his sex scandal-plagued predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, be in office than he. On both questions, Paterson doesn’t even receive backing from a majority of voters in his own party. Just 22% of Democrats think he is doing well as governor, and half say, “Resurrect Spitzer!”
Paterson’s Image Takes a Hit
Is there a silver lining for Governor Paterson? Well, 66% of registered voters across the state believe he is working hard as governor. However, that, too, is a drop from Marist’s March 2009 poll when 77% of the state’s electorate thought he was toiling away for New York. But, that’s where the praise for Paterson ends. 66% of voters say he does not have what it takes to lead the state while just 28% think he is a good leader. Paterson fares a little better on whether he understands the problems facing the state, but he still does not receive majority support from voters. In fact, with 48% reporting that the governor just doesn’t get the critical issues facing New York and 47% saying he does, the electorate is divided.
Looking at one of the most pressing problems in New York State – the economic crisis – 68% of the electorate disapproves of how Paterson is handling the situation, and 23% approve. Voters also do not believe Governor Paterson is a man for all New Yorkers. Nearly six in ten voters — 58% — report he does not represent all regions of the state while 34% think he does. And, when you zoom into Albany, a whopping 71% believe the governor is not changing daily, political operations for the better. David Paterson isn’t even viewed by a majority of the electorate as a governor who cares about the average person. 51% think he is not in tune with the needs of people like them compared with 42% who think the opposite is true. On all of these questions, public opinion was far more positive for Governor Paterson in The Marist Poll’s March 2009 survey.
There is a new issue on Governor Paterson’s plate – the swine flu outbreak. How do voters think he is handling this health concern? 46% approve of his management, and 18% disapprove. 36% are unsure.
Table: Paterson is Working Hard As Governor
Table: Paterson is a Good Leader for NYS
Table: Paterson Understands the Problems Facing NYS
Table: Paterson Handling Economic Crisis
Table: Paterson Represents All Regions of the State
Table: Paterson Is Changing the Way Things Work In Albany for the Better
Table: Paterson Cares About People Like You
Table: Paterson Handling Swine Flu Outbreak
Turn This Ship Around: Nearly Seven In Ten Think NYS Moving In Wrong Direction
Registered voters in New York State are pessimistic about the direction of the state. 67% report the state is moving along the wrong path while 27% say the Empire State is right on track. These findings are comparable to those in Marist’s March 2009 survey.
The Marist Poll’s Lee Miringoff says Paterson might have to do something dramatic to reverse his plummeting popularity:
Seven in ten New York State voters think Governor Spitzer should resign from office: 70% of registered voters think Governor Spitzer should resign from office after it was revealed that he was a customer of a high-priced prostitution ring. 22% think he should not have to resign from office, and 8% are unsure. A majority of Democrats, Republicans, and non-enrolled voters believe he should submit his resignation.
A majority of New York State registered voters give Governor Spitzer a “thumbs down.” 56% of registered voters do not approve of the job Eliot Spitzer is doing as governor and rate his performance in office as fair or poor. His approval rating stands at 35% among the state’s electorate. Only 5% of voters say he is doing an excellent job as governor, and 30% rate his performance as good. 9% of registered voters are unsure how to rate the governor.
62% of registered voters think there should be an additional inquiry beyond the New York State Attorney General’s report into what Governor Spitzer knew when his top aides misused the state police to gather information about Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno. 33% think the Attorney General’s report should end the discussion, and 5% are unsure. A majority of Democrats, Republicans, and independents believe the issue should be further investigated.
Eliot Spitzer, who received high praise from many New York State voters as attorney general, is having to prove himself once again to voters in his new job as governor. 19% of registered voters statewide are unsure how to rate the job he is doing so far. Among voters who express an opinion, 43% approve and rate the job Spitzer is doing as governor as excellent or good. 38% of registered voters do not approve and rate the job he is doing as fair or poor.
Eliot Spitzer continues to outdistance his Republican rival by a wide margin in the race for New York’s next governor: In his bid to become governor of New York, Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has a 48 percentage point lead over his Republican opponent, former Assemblyman John Faso. Spitzer receives the support of 70% of voters likely to vote on Election Day compared with 22% for Faso. 8% of likely voters are undecided. 62% of registered voters approve of the job Eliot Spitzer is doing as attorney general, including a majority of Republicans.
Spitzer formidable frontrunner in race for New York governor: In match-ups for the 2006 election for New York governor, New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer outdistances his potential opponents by substantial margins including former Assemblyman John Faso, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld, and Rochester businessman Thomas Golisano, who has since announced that he will not be a candidate.