Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide. Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%. Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%. Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.
“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”
When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest. At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn. 12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio. Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%. Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.
Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty
46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor. 35% support a Kelly candidacy. 19% are unsure.
In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided. 42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring. 16%, at that time, were unsure.
Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates. How do they fare? 58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does. 17% are unsure.
There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011. At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did. One in ten, at that time, was unsure.
When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it. 13% are unsure. Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011. At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should. Nine percent, then, were unsure.
What about actor Alec Baldwin? 66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician. 18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest. 16% are unsure.
Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady
45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office. This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one. 32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor. Only three percent are unsure.
When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks. Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one. 33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar. Only 1%, then, was unsure.
How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office? 43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy. This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor. 34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one. Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.
Little has changed on this question since April. At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind. 39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor. Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.
Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City
51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction. 38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one. 10% are unsure.
Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course. More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.
The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters? Not yet. According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner. Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%. Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn. Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. A notable 27% are undecided.
There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October. At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu. Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time. 32% were undecided.
“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”
Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!
There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring. 62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor. 29%, however, say he should. 10% are unsure.
When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views. 62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did. 14%, at the time, were unsure.
Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party. More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do. Nine percent are unsure. In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.
Nearly two-thirds of registered New York State voters — 66% — do not want former Governor Eliot Spitzer to run for statewide office this year. Only 28% want him to throw his hat into the political ring. 6% are unsure.
More New York State voters are against a political comeback for their former governor this year than when Marist last asked this question in its April 14th survey. At that time, 58% ruled out a 2010 Spitzer run while 30% thought a 2010 political campaign should be in the cards. 12% were unsure.
“Eliot Spitzer’s attempt to reconnect with New York voters is not paying off in the short-run,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “He has become more visible lately but not more electable.”
And, what about voters’ opinions on Spitzer’s political future? A majority of registered voters in New York now give a thumbs-down to any idea of a candidate Spitzer. 52% do not want the former governor to ever run for public office in the future while 43% do. 5% are unsure.
In Marist’s previous poll, voters in New York were more divided. 48% did not want Spitzer to ever return to politics while 45% did. 7%, at the time, were unsure.
Regardless of a possible political comeback, what are New York voters’ impressions of their former governor? A majority — 54% — have an unfavorable view of him, a slight increase from the 50% of the electorate who had this view in Marist’s previous poll. The proportion of voters who have a favorable impression of Spitzer — 36% — has also increased. When Marist last asked this question in mid-April, 28% had a favorable view of Spitzer. As a result, more voters have an opinion about Spitzer now. Only 10% are unsure how to rate him compared with 22% who said they didn’t have a clear impression of him in April.
Controversy-ridden former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer has refuted rumors that he is looking to seek political office again. And, perhaps, that’s a good thing.
69% of registered voters in New York State say they do not want Democrat Spitzer to run for statewide office next year. This includes 62% of Spitzer’s own party, 77% of Republicans, and 72% of non-enrolled voters.
Does the office make a difference? Among Democrats in New York State, when Mr. Spitzer is paired in a hypothetical contest against his successor, Governor David Paterson, 60% report they would support the highly unpopular Paterson in next year’s Democratic Primary while 31% would vote for Spitzer.
When it comes to the race for New York State Comptroller, his prospects aren’t much better. Here, 49% of Democrats in New York State report they would vote for the incumbent, Tom DiNapoli, while 37% say they would cast their ballot for Spitzer. 14% are unsure.
How does Spitzer fare against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate? Gillibrand garners a majority — 57% — while the former governor takes home 29%. 14% are unsure.
Even if Spitzer were to achieve his party’s nomination for U.S. Senate, he would not win the ultimate prize when paired up against former New York Governor George Pataki. Here, 58% of the statewide electorate would back Pataki compared with one-third who would vote for Spitzer. Among Democrats, Spitzer squeaks out a slim majority of his own party — 52%. However, Republicans would be more firmly behind their candidate, Pataki. 86% of New York’s GOP would support him. 61% of non-enrolled voters align with the GOP.
Table: Spitzer to Run for Statewide Office?
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Governor — Paterson/Spitzer
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Comptroller — DiNapoli/Spiter
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate — Gillibrand/Spitzer
Table: 2010 U.S. Senate — Spitzer/Pataki
Approval Rating: 46% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Governor Pataki is doing in office as excellent or good. 49% rate the job the governor is doing as fair or poor. His approval rating was 40% in a similar poll conducted last September.
Approval Rating: 40% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Governor Pataki is doing in office as excellent or good. 58% rate the job the governor is doing as fair or poor. His approval in a similar poll conducted last May was 37%.