8/16: Tight Race in Democratic Primary for NYC Mayor… Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

August 16, 2013 by  
Filed under Election 2013, Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

With less than a month to go until Primary Day, Democrats Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio are locked in a tight race in their pursuit of the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.  Bill Thompson is currently in third.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, just eight percentage points separate these three candidates, and only six percentage points are between them among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.  The scandal-ridden Anthony Weiner trails in fourth place.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 21% Bill de Blasio
  • 16% Bill Thompson
  • 12% Anthony Weiner
  •   6% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Randy Credico
  • <1% Neil Grimaldi
  •   3% Other
  • 15% Undecided

Click Here for Complete August 16, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll

“It’s been a topsy-turvy summer, and many Democratic voters are still waiting to be convinced,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although voters have yet to sort things out, Bill de Blasio has shown the biggest gain in the last couple of weeks.”

It was a very different contest just three weeks ago when the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question on July 25th.  At that time, Quinn — 25% — outpaced Weiner — 16% — by nine percentage points among New York City Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  De Blasio and Thompson each received the support of 14% of the Democratic electorate.  At that time, 7% backed John Liu while Erick Salgado had 2%.  One percent supported Sal Albanese, 2% were for another candidate, and 19% were undecided.

Where Are Top-Tier Candidates’ Strengths?

  • Quinn does better among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 33%, live in Manhattan — 30%, or who approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office — 29%.  She also does well among Democrats who are Catholic — 28% or Latino — 27%.
  • De Blasio does well among Democrats who are both white and liberal — 36%, who are Jewish — 30%, who live in Manhattan — 27%, or who earn $50,000 or more annually — 27%.  De Blasio has improved his standing among Democrats who are African American.  He currently receives the support of 20% of African American Democrats compared with 10% in the last poll.
  • Thompson does better among Democrats who are African American — 22%, but generally receives similar support from most other groups.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, de Blasio and Quinn each receive 24%.  18% back Thompson.  Weiner has the support of 11% of Democrats who are likely to cast a ballot while 5% are behind Liu.  Two percent are for Salgado, and 1% backs Albanese.  Credico has the support of 1%, and Grimaldi receives less than one percent.  Two percent are behind another candidate, and 12% are undecided.

When it comes to intensity of support, a plurality of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference — 43% — say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  37% are somewhat committed to their pick while 17% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s previous survey, 42% said they were firmly committed to their candidate.  32% were somewhat behind their choice while 23% thought they might change their mind before casting their ballot.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

48% of de Blasio’s supporters say they will not waiver in their commitment to him.  This compares with 41% of New York City Democrats who rally for Thompson and 35% of those who are for Quinn.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Democratic Mayoralty Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Lhota Leads Catsimatidis for GOP Nod

Looking at the contest for the Republican nomination for mayor, Joe Lhota continues to have the advantage over John Catsimatidis.  George McDonald trails his GOP opponents by double-digits.  However, three in ten Republicans in New York City have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small number of registered Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 33% Joe Lhota
  • 22% John Catsimatidis
  • 12% George McDonald
  •   2% Other
  • 30% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, Lhota — 28% — led Catsimatidis — 21% — by 7 percentage points among New York City Republicans, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  10% backed George McDonald, and 1% were for another candidate.  40% were undecided.

How strongly committed are Republicans to their choice of candidate?  43% of those with a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice.  34% are somewhat behind their pick while 17% might change their mind.  Six percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Republican Mayoralty Candidate (NYC Republicans with a Candidate Preference)

No Runaway in Runoff Races… But de Blasio has Edge 

If none of the candidates receive 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary for mayor, a runoff for the Democratic nomination will be held.  How would the top-tier candidates fare in such a situation?

Among New York City Democrats:

  • When de Blasio and Quinn face off, de Blasio receives the support of 44% of registered Democrats compared with 42% for Quinn.  14% are undecided.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s June poll, Quinn — 47% — outpaced de Blasio — 33% — by 14 percentage points.  21% were undecided. Among likely Democratic voters, 47% are currently for de Blasio compared with 40% for Quinn.  12% are undecided.
  • Thompson — 44% — and Quinn — 43% — are also neck and neck among registered Democrats.  12% are undecided.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question nearly two months ago, Quinn received the support of 42% of Democrats compared with 40% for Thompson.  18%, at the time, were undecided.  Looking at likely Democratic voters this time, Thompson garners 47% to 42% for Quinn.  11% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives 44% compared with 36% for Thompson in a runoff among registered Democrats.  20% are undecided.  Among likely Democratic voters in this   survey, 47% are for de Blasio while 36% back Thompson.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Thompson vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Boost for de Blasio… Weiner’s Favorability at New Low

A majority of registered Democrats citywide view the top-tier Democratic candidates running for mayor positively.  This includes de Blasio who enjoys a bump in his positive rating.  Anthony Weiner’s favorability rating has sunk to an all-time low.

  • Nearly six in ten New York City Democrats — 59% — have a positive impression of de Blasio while 14% have an unfavorable view of the candidate.  26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in June, 52% thought highly of de Blasio.  19% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 56% of registererd Democrats have a favorable view of Thompson.  18% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 26% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In June, 60% had a positive opinion of Thompson, and 16% had an unfavorable impression of him.  25%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of registered Democrats — 54% — has a favorable impression of Quinn.  32% have an unfavorable opinion of her while 13% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  In June, 57% thought well of Quinn, 29% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • When it comes to Weiner, 63% of registered Democrats citywide have an unfavorable opinion of him.  26% think well of him while 11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 55% had an unfavorable opinion of Weiner.  30% had a positive impression of the candidate, and 15% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

Spitzer with Double-Digit Lead over Stringer in Comptroller’s Race

In the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller, Eliot Spitzer receives majority support — 53% — among New York City registered Democrats including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  This compares with 34% for Scott Stringer.  One percent is for another candidate, and 11% are undecided.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 25th, 49% backed Spitzer, and 32% were for Stringer.  Two percent backed another candidate, and 17% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 54% are behind Spitzer while 36% are for Stringer.  One percent backs another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer — 48% — led Stringer — 36% — by 12 percentage points among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

48% of New York City registered Democrats with a candidate preference for comptroller strongly support their choice.  37% are somewhat committed to their candidate while 14% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

More registered Democrats today are strongly committed to their candidate selection for comptroller.  When this question was last reported on July 11th, 39% of Democrats with a candidate preference said they were firmly committed to their choice, and 36% reported they were somewhat behind their pick.  22% thought they might vote differently, and 2% were unsure.

A majority of Spitzer’s supporters — 51% — say they are firmly committed to their candidate.  This compares with 43% of Stringer’s backers who say the same.  There has been a notable increase in the proportion of Democrats who strongly support Stringer.  In early July, 30% of Stringer’s supporters were firmly committed to him.  This compares with 47% of those who firmly backed Spitzer at that time.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Comptroller Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Majority of Democrats Are Undecided in Public Advocate Race 

In the contest for the Democratic nomination for New York City’s public advocate, 51% of registered Democrats are undecided about which candidate to support.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 16% Letitia James
  • 12% Catherine Guerriero
  •   9% Daniel Squadron
  •   3% Reshma Saujani
  •   2% Sidique Wai
  •   7% Other
  • 51% Undecided

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in its June 26th poll, James received the support of 17% of New York City registered Democrats, including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  16% supported Guerriero.  Eight percent backed Squadron, and 4% were for Saujani.  Less than one percent supported another candidate, and 54% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 16% support James. Guerriero and Squadron each receives the backing of 12%.  Saujani has 3%, and 2% are for Wai.  Six percent want to elect another candidate, and 49% are undecided.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference for public advocate, 38% are strongly committed to their candidate.  34% somewhat back their choice while 25% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

In June, 34% strongly supported their candidate.  43% were somewhat behind their choice for public advocate while 20% reported they might change their mind.  Two percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

44% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 11% who say he is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  31% rate his performance as fair while 21% report he is doing poorly in office.  Five percent are unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question on July 11th, similar proportions held these views.  46% said Bloomberg was doing either an excellent or good job as mayor.  28% gave him fair grades while 21% believed his performance fell short.  Five percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)


 

A City on Track?

46% of registered voters in the Big Apple believe New York City is moving in the right direction.  40% think it is traveling in the wrong direction, and 14% are unsure.  This is the first time since September 2011 that the proportion of voters citywide who think the city is on the right course has fallen below 50%.  At that time, 42% said the city was on track, 52% reported it was off course, and 6% were unsure.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question in July, a slim majority of voters — 51% — said the city was moving in the right direction.  35% believed it needed a new course, and 14% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide

In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.  In this first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged, Quinn now outdistances Weiner by 9 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Christine Quinn
  • 16% Anthony Weiner
  • 14% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  •   7% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 19% Undecided

Click Here for Complete July 25, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“For many Democrats the latest revelations about Anthony Weiner are more of the same, only more so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Weiner has lost his lead and his negatives are at an all-time high.”

There has been a 14 percentage point swing in the contest between Quinn and Weiner.  As noted, Quinn leads Weiner by 9 percentage points.  When the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, Weiner — 25% — edged Quinn — 20% — by 5 percentage points among New York City Democrats including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bill Thompson received the support of 13%.  At that time, 10% backed Bill de Blasio while 8% were for John Liu.  Erick Salgado had the support of 2%, and 1% was behind Sal Albanese.  One percent backed another candidate, and 18% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 26% are for Quinn compared with 17% for de Blasio who is in a statistical tie for second with Weiner at 16% and Thompson with 15%.  Liu has the backing of 7%, Salgado garners 2%, and 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 15% are undecided.

How committed to their choice of candidate are New York City Democrats with their candidate preference?  42% say they strongly support their choice.  32% are somewhat behind their pick while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 36% of Democrats with a candidate preference reported they were firmly in their candidate’s camp.  38% were somewhat behind their pick, and 23% thought they might change their minds before Election Day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Democrats who are for Weiner — 52% — are still more committed to their choice of candidate than backers of the other leading contenders.  37% of Quinn’s supporters strongly support her.  35% of Thompson’s backers have a similar intensity of support, and 33% of Democrats behind de Blasio are firmly committed to their candidate.  In June, 45% of Weiner’s supporters said they strongly supported him.  This compares with 34% of Quinn’s backers who expressed a similar intensity of support.  Results for Thompson and de Blasio are not available for the previous poll.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Weiner’s Negative Rating Soars

There has been a dramatic shift in Democrats’ impressions of Anthony Weiner from a similar poll conducted last month before the latest online sexual relationship came to light.  In the current survey, a majority of Democrats citywide have an unfavorable impression of Anthony Weiner.  55% have this view while three in ten — 30% — have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This represents the highest negative rating Anthony Weiner has received this election season.

In last month’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, a majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — had a favorable view of Weiner while 36% had an unfavorable opinion of him.  11%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“New York City Democrats were willing to give Anthony Weiner a second chance but are reluctant to excuse his behavior now,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Democrats Divide Over Future of Weiner’s Candidacy

Despite the tawdry details of Weiner’s online sexual relationships, Weiner vows to fight on in his quest to become the next mayor of New York City.  But, do Democrats citywide want Weiner to remain in the race?  47% do while 43% want him to drop out of the contest.  10% are unsure.

What would the race look like without Weiner?  Quinn outpaces her closest competitor, Thompson, by 15 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner:

  • 32% Christine Quinn
  • 17% Bill Thompson
  • 16% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 20% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 32% support Quinn compared with 20% for de Blasio.  18% are behind Thompson while Liu receives the support of 9%.  Two percent back Salgado while 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Table: Should Anthony Weiner Drop Out of the Race for New York City Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor without Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Do Weiner’s Online Sexcapades Matter to Democrats?

46% of New York City Democrats say Weiner’s online sexual relationships will impact their vote.  Included here are 33% who report Weiner’s activities will matter a great deal to their decision and 13% who say Weiner’s actions will matter a good amount.  49%, however, say these activities matter little or not at all when deciding their vote.  This includes 14% who say these revelations matter a little and 35% who say they don’t matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Anthony Weiner is not the only politician seeking forgiveness from the public.  Following a prostitution scandal that forced him out of office, former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is running for New York City comptroller.  However, Democrats citywide find Weiner’s behavior more egregious than Spitzer’s actions.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist asked Democrats earlier this month if Spitzer’s sex scandal would impact their vote, only 34% believed it would have an effect on how they cast their ballot, and 62% reported it would matter little or not at all.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Weiner’s Online Sexual Relationships on Vote (NYC Democrats)

A Matter of Trust?  Abedin’s Support Does Little to Help Weiner

In a press conference on Tuesday, Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner’s wife, publicly supported her husband and said she had forgiven him.  However, her commitment does little to help Weiner’s electoral chances.  Almost three in four Democrats — 73% — report Abedin’s support has no impact on how much trust they have in Weiner to be mayor.  15% say her backing makes them more likely to trust him while 12% say it makes them less likely to do so.

Table: Does Huma Abedin’s Support of Anthony Weiner Make You More or Less Likely to Trust Weiner as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Have Weiner’s Chances Run Out? 

Can New York City Democrats move beyond Weiner’s salacious activities and give him another chance?  Again, there is a divide.  47% believe Weiner deserves another chance in the public arena while 45% disagree and say he does not have the character to be mayor.  Nine percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported a similar question in May, 59% of Democrats thought Weiner should be given a second chance.  35% said he did not have the character to be mayor, and 6% were unsure.

Democrats are more willing to grant redemption to Eliot Spitzer.  Two weeks ago, 67% said Spitzer deserved another chance while one in four — 25% — believed he did not have the character to be comptroller.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Does Anthony Weiner Deserve Another Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Just Four in Ten Think Weiner Would Do Well as Mayor 

Just 40% of Democrats citywide think Weiner would do an excellent or good job as mayor.  This includes 15% who say he would be an excellent mayor and 25% who report he would be a good one.  47% do not think he would excel as mayor, including 19% who believe he would do a fair job in the office while more than one in four — 28% — predict he would perform poorly in City Hall.  13% are unsure.

Once again, New York City Democrats express more faith in Eliot Spitzer.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s early July survey, 57% thought Spitzer would do either an excellent — 18% — or good — 39% — job as comptroller.  19% reported he would do a fair job, and 12% said he would fall short.  12%, then, were unsure.

Table: How Would Anthony Weiner Perform as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Spitzer with 17 Percentage Point Lead in the Race for NYC Comptroller 

Where does the contest for New York City comptroller stand?  Spitzer — 49% — leads Scott Stringer — 32% — by 17 percentage points among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Spitzer’s lead has widened.  Earlier this month, 42% of Democrats supported Spitzer while 33% were for Stringer.  One percent backed another candidate, and 24% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 48% support Spitzer compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent supports another candidate, and 14% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer led Stringer 44% to 36% among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/11: A Second Chance for Spitzer? Takes Lead in NYC Comptroller’s Race

Just days after disgraced former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer announced he would return to politics to run for New York City comptroller, he leads his opponent, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, by nine percentage points.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, Spitzer receives the support of 42% compared with 33% for Stringer.  One percent is behind another candidate.  A notable 24% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete July 11, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“Right now, New York City Democrats are willing to give Spitzer a second chance, but the big question is what happens after the shock value of his return to politics fades and the campaign for comptroller heats up,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Having just recently gone down a similar path with Anthony Weiner, Democrats may reach redemption overload for one or both of these candidates.”

While Spitzer leads Stringer among both men and women, he does slightly better among men.

  • Among men who are Democrats, 44% are for Spitzer while 30% are for Stringer.
  • 40% of women who are Democrats support Spitzer compared with 34% for Stringer.

Spitzer leads among African American and Latino voters.  Stringer has the advantage among white voters.

  • Among Democrats who are African American, Spitzer is favored by 50% while 25% support Stringer.
  • Spitzer — 46% — outpaces Stringer — 29% among Latino Democrats.
  • Stringer leads Spitzer among white voters, 46% to 32%.

The contest is fluid.  In addition to the many undecided voters, just 39% of New York City Democrats say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  36% are somewhat behind their selection while 22% say they might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Spitzer’s supporters are more fervent in their support than are Stringer’s backers.  47% of those for Spitzer say they are strongly committed to their choice.  This compares with 30% of Stringer’s supporters who say they will not waver in their commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary for comptroller, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Spitzer has the backing of 44% compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 19% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

More View Spitzer Favorably than Stringer, But…

When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of the candidates, a plurality — 46% — has a positive opinion of Spitzer.  35% have an unfavorable view of him, and 19% are unsure.  When Marist last reported this question in August 2010, two years after his resignation, New York City Democrats’ view of Spitzer was upside down.  45% of Democrats had an unfavorable impression of Spitzer.  38% thought favorably of him while 17% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Although Spitzer has a higher favorable rating than Stringer, Spitzer’s unfavorable rating is double that of Stringer.  Among New York City Democrats, 40% view Stringer favorably while 17% have a lesser impression of the candidate.  A notable 43% have either never heard of Stringer or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Eliot Spitzer Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Eliot Spitzer Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

 Table: Scott Stringer Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Many Dems Green Light Spitzer for a Second Go Around… 57% with Great Expectations for Comptroller Spitzer

Five years after Spitzer resigned amid revelations that he solicited prostitutes, about two-thirds of Democrats — 67% — believe Spitzer should be given a second chance in the political arena.  Only 25% think Spitzer does not have the character to be the city’s next comptroller.  Eight percent are unsure.

A plurality of New York City Democrats believe Eliot Spitzer has reformed.  More than four in ten — 44% — say the former governor has changed as a person.  25% report he is the same Spitzer, and 32% are unsure.

On his merits, nearly six in ten Democrats — 57% — think Spitzer would do well as comptroller.  Included here are 18% who think he would be excellent in the role and 39% who say he would do a good job as comptroller.  19% report he would perform fairly well in the post while 12% think he would fall short.  12% are unsure.

Table: Does Eliot Spitzer Deserve a Second Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Table: Has Eliot Spitzer Changed as a Person? (NYC Democrats)

Table: How Would Eliot Spitzer Perform as Comptroller? (NYC Democrats)

In the Big Picture, Does It Really Matter?

34% of Democrats think Spitzer’s scandal-plagued past will impact their vote for comptroller a great deal — 20% — or a good amount — 14%.  27% say it will matter only a little to their decision while 35% report it does not matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Are Democrats focusing on the comptroller’s race?  About two-thirds of Democrats — 65% — are not following the campaign intently.  Included here are 44% who say they are not following it very closely and 21% who report they are not following the contest at all.  Just 9% are tracking the comptroller’s race very closely while 26% are watching it closely.

Table: Impact of Eliot Spitzer’s Previous Sex Scandal on Vote (NYC Democrats)

Table: How Closely Democrats are Following the Campaign for Comptroller (NYC Democrats)

The Lesser of Two Scandals?

When asked to weigh Spitzer’s previous salacious actions against those of former Congressman Anthony Weiner, there is little consensus about whose actions are considered to be more offensive.  31% consider Weiner sending lewd pictures of himself over the Internet to be more egregious while 29% think Spitzer’s involvement in a prostitution ring is more offensive.  19% report both are just as wrong while 13% believe neither politician’s actions are offensive.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Whether Eliot Spitzer or Anthony Weiner’s Previous Actions are More Offensive (NYC Democrats)

Comptroller Spitzer Trumps Mayor Weiner

When asked whether New York City Democrats would prefer a Comptroller Spitzer or a Mayor Weiner, 38% say they would rather have a Comptroller Spitzer in office.  22% would prefer a Mayor Weiner while 15% would rather have neither.  Eight percent would like both to be elected to their offices of choice.  17% are unsure.

Table: Whether NYC Democrats Would Prefer Comptroller Spitzer to Mayor Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Do Politicians Have a Skeleton in Their Closet? 

Nearly three in four New York City Democrats — 72% — believe politicians have something to hide.  This includes 40% of Democrats citywide who think all people who run for public office have a secret to hide and 32% who believe most politicians are keeping something under wraps.  20% report a few have something they want to keep secret, and only 3% think those who seek public office have nothing to hide.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Do All Politicians Have Something to Hide? (NYC Democrats)

Bloomberg Approval Rating

46% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 13% who believe the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  28% rate his performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor grades.  Five percent are unsure.

When the NBC New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll reported this question last month,   49% of voters praised Bloomberg’s performance.  31% believed he was doing an average job while 17% said his performance was subpar.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Direction of the City: Stay the Course, Says Majority

51% of registered voters in New York City believe the city is moving in the right direction.  35% think it is traveling on the wrong course, and 14% are unsure.

Last month, 52% of voters believed New York City was moving in the right direction while 37% reported it required a new trajectory.  11% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

October 18, 2012 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

4/1: The 2013 Democratic Field for NYC Mayor: No Clear Candidate

April 1, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters?  Not yet.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%.  Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.  Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.  A notable 27% are undecided.

voter casting ballot
©istockphoto.com/imagestock

Click Here for Complete April 1, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October.  At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu.   Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time.  32% were undecided.

“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!

There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring.  62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor.  29%, however, say he should.  10% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views.  62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do.  Nine percent are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.

Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid
Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid Over Time

Trend graph: Should Eliot Spitzer run for NYC mayor?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

5/21: “Stay Out of Politics, Spitz,” Says Majority of NYS Voters

Nearly two-thirds of registered New York State voters — 66% — do not want former Governor Eliot Spitzer to run for statewide office this year.  Only 28% want him to throw his hat into the political ring.  6% are unsure.

Photo courtesy of U.S. State Department

Photo courtesy of U.S. State Department

Click Here for Complete May 21, 2010 NYS Poll Release and Tables

More New York State voters are against a political comeback for their former governor this year than when Marist last asked this question in its April 14th survey.  At that time, 58% ruled out a 2010 Spitzer run while 30% thought a 2010 political campaign should be in the cards.  12% were unsure.

“Eliot Spitzer’s attempt to reconnect with New York voters is not paying off in the short-run,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He has become more visible lately but not more electable.”

And, what about voters’ opinions on Spitzer’s political future?  A majority of registered voters in New York now give a thumbs-down to any idea of a candidate Spitzer.  52% do not want the former governor to ever run for public office in the future while 43% do.  5% are unsure.

In Marist’s previous poll, voters in New York were more divided.  48% did not want Spitzer to ever return to politics while 45% did.  7%, at the time, were unsure.

Regardless of a possible political comeback, what are New York voters’ impressions of their former governor?  A majority — 54% — have an unfavorable view of him, a slight increase from the 50% of the electorate who had this view in Marist’s previous poll.  The proportion of voters who have a favorable impression of Spitzer — 36% — has also increased.  When Marist last asked this question in mid-April, 28% had a favorable view of Spitzer.  As a result, more voters have an opinion about Spitzer now.  Only 10% are unsure how to rate him compared with 22% who said they didn’t have a clear impression of him in April.

Table: Spitzer to Run for Statewide Office?
Table: Spitzer to Run for Future Statewide Office?
Table: Spitzer Favorability

Marist Poll Methodology

9/17: Resurrect Spitzer? “No Way,” Say Nearly Seven in Ten

Controversy-ridden former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer has refuted rumors that he is looking to seek political office again.  And, perhaps, that’s a good thing.

Photo courtesy of U.S. State Department

Photo courtesy of U.S. State Department

69% of registered voters in New York State say they do not want Democrat Spitzer to run for statewide office next year.  This includes 62% of Spitzer’s own party, 77% of Republicans, and 72% of non-enrolled voters.

Click here for Complete September 17, 2009 NYS Poll Release and Tables

Does the office make a difference?  Among Democrats in New York State, when Mr. Spitzer is paired in a hypothetical contest against his successor, Governor David Paterson, 60% report they would support the highly unpopular Paterson in next year’s Democratic Primary while 31% would vote for Spitzer.

When it comes to the race for New York State Comptroller, his prospects aren’t much better.  Here, 49% of Democrats in New York State report they would vote for the incumbent, Tom DiNapoli, while 37% say they would cast their ballot for Spitzer. 14% are unsure.

How does Spitzer fare against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate?  Gillibrand garners a majority — 57% — while the former governor takes home 29%.  14% are unsure.

Even if Spitzer were to achieve his party’s nomination for U.S. Senate, he would not win the ultimate prize when paired up against former New York Governor George Pataki.  Here, 58% of the statewide electorate would back Pataki compared with one-third who would vote for Spitzer.  Among Democrats, Spitzer squeaks out a slim majority of his own party — 52%.  However, Republicans would be more firmly behind their candidate, Pataki.  86% of New York’s GOP would support him.  61% of non-enrolled voters align with the GOP.

Table: Spitzer to Run for Statewide Office?
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Governor — Paterson/Spitzer
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for NYS Comptroller — DiNapoli/Spiter
Table: 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate — Gillibrand/Spitzer
Table: 2010 U.S. Senate — Spitzer/Pataki

Marist Poll Methodology

Related Stories:

9/17: Gillibrand Gains Name Recognition, But for the Better?

9/17: Schumer Approval Rating Nearly 6 in 10


New York: Statewide Ratings & Future Match-ups

January 14, 2004 by  
Filed under NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

Approval Rating: 46% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Governor Pataki is doing in office as excellent or good. 49% rate the job the governor is doing as fair or poor. His approval rating was 40% in a similar poll conducted last September.

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New York State Voters Rate Pataki

September 22, 2003 by  
Filed under NY State, NY State Poll Archive, Politics

Approval Rating: 40% of New York State’s registered voters rate the job Governor Pataki is doing in office as excellent or good. 58% rate the job the governor is doing as fair or poor. His approval in a similar poll conducted last May was 37%.

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