7/25: Quinn Reclaims Lead from Weiner in Democratic Primary… Should Weiner Drop Out? Dems Divide

In light of new revelations that Anthony Weiner continued to engage in lewd online behavior after he resigned from Congress two years ago, Weiner now trails Christine Quinn in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor.  In this first poll conducted entirely after the latest scandalous details emerged, Quinn now outdistances Weiner by 9 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Christine Quinn
  • 16% Anthony Weiner
  • 14% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  •   7% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 19% Undecided

Click Here for Complete July 25, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

POLL MUST BE SOURCED:  NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll*

“For many Democrats the latest revelations about Anthony Weiner are more of the same, only more so,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Weiner has lost his lead and his negatives are at an all-time high.”

There has been a 14 percentage point swing in the contest between Quinn and Weiner.  As noted, Quinn leads Weiner by 9 percentage points.  When the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll last reported this question in June, Weiner — 25% — edged Quinn — 20% — by 5 percentage points among New York City Democrats including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Bill Thompson received the support of 13%.  At that time, 10% backed Bill de Blasio while 8% were for John Liu.  Erick Salgado had the support of 2%, and 1% was behind Sal Albanese.  One percent backed another candidate, and 18% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 26% are for Quinn compared with 17% for de Blasio who is in a statistical tie for second with Weiner at 16% and Thompson with 15%.  Liu has the backing of 7%, Salgado garners 2%, and 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 15% are undecided.

How committed to their choice of candidate are New York City Democrats with their candidate preference?  42% say they strongly support their choice.  32% are somewhat behind their pick while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 36% of Democrats with a candidate preference reported they were firmly in their candidate’s camp.  38% were somewhat behind their pick, and 23% thought they might change their minds before Election Day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Democrats who are for Weiner — 52% — are still more committed to their choice of candidate than backers of the other leading contenders.  37% of Quinn’s supporters strongly support her.  35% of Thompson’s backers have a similar intensity of support, and 33% of Democrats behind de Blasio are firmly committed to their candidate.  In June, 45% of Weiner’s supporters said they strongly supported him.  This compares with 34% of Quinn’s backers who expressed a similar intensity of support.  Results for Thompson and de Blasio are not available for the previous poll.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Weiner’s Negative Rating Soars

There has been a dramatic shift in Democrats’ impressions of Anthony Weiner from a similar poll conducted last month before the latest online sexual relationship came to light.  In the current survey, a majority of Democrats citywide have an unfavorable impression of Anthony Weiner.  55% have this view while three in ten — 30% — have a favorable opinion of the candidate.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  This represents the highest negative rating Anthony Weiner has received this election season.

In last month’s NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, a majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — had a favorable view of Weiner while 36% had an unfavorable opinion of him.  11%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

“New York City Democrats were willing to give Anthony Weiner a second chance but are reluctant to excuse his behavior now,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

Democrats Divide Over Future of Weiner’s Candidacy

Despite the tawdry details of Weiner’s online sexual relationships, Weiner vows to fight on in his quest to become the next mayor of New York City.  But, do Democrats citywide want Weiner to remain in the race?  47% do while 43% want him to drop out of the contest.  10% are unsure.

What would the race look like without Weiner?  Quinn outpaces her closest competitor, Thompson, by 15 percentage points.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner:

  • 32% Christine Quinn
  • 17% Bill Thompson
  • 16% Bill de Blasio
  •   9% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 20% Undecided

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 32% support Quinn compared with 20% for de Blasio.  18% are behind Thompson while Liu receives the support of 9%.  Two percent back Salgado while 1% is for Albanese.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Table: Should Anthony Weiner Drop Out of the Race for New York City Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor without Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Do Weiner’s Online Sexcapades Matter to Democrats?

46% of New York City Democrats say Weiner’s online sexual relationships will impact their vote.  Included here are 33% who report Weiner’s activities will matter a great deal to their decision and 13% who say Weiner’s actions will matter a good amount.  49%, however, say these activities matter little or not at all when deciding their vote.  This includes 14% who say these revelations matter a little and 35% who say they don’t matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Anthony Weiner is not the only politician seeking forgiveness from the public.  Following a prostitution scandal that forced him out of office, former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer is running for New York City comptroller.  However, Democrats citywide find Weiner’s behavior more egregious than Spitzer’s actions.

When NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist asked Democrats earlier this month if Spitzer’s sex scandal would impact their vote, only 34% believed it would have an effect on how they cast their ballot, and 62% reported it would matter little or not at all.  Five percent were unsure.

Table: Impact of Weiner’s Online Sexual Relationships on Vote (NYC Democrats)

A Matter of Trust?  Abedin’s Support Does Little to Help Weiner

In a press conference on Tuesday, Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner’s wife, publicly supported her husband and said she had forgiven him.  However, her commitment does little to help Weiner’s electoral chances.  Almost three in four Democrats — 73% — report Abedin’s support has no impact on how much trust they have in Weiner to be mayor.  15% say her backing makes them more likely to trust him while 12% say it makes them less likely to do so.

Table: Does Huma Abedin’s Support of Anthony Weiner Make You More or Less Likely to Trust Weiner as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Have Weiner’s Chances Run Out? 

Can New York City Democrats move beyond Weiner’s salacious activities and give him another chance?  Again, there is a divide.  47% believe Weiner deserves another chance in the public arena while 45% disagree and say he does not have the character to be mayor.  Nine percent are unsure.

When Marist last reported a similar question in May, 59% of Democrats thought Weiner should be given a second chance.  35% said he did not have the character to be mayor, and 6% were unsure.

Democrats are more willing to grant redemption to Eliot Spitzer.  Two weeks ago, 67% said Spitzer deserved another chance while one in four — 25% — believed he did not have the character to be comptroller.  Eight percent, at that time, were unsure.

Table: Does Anthony Weiner Deserve Another Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Just Four in Ten Think Weiner Would Do Well as Mayor 

Just 40% of Democrats citywide think Weiner would do an excellent or good job as mayor.  This includes 15% who say he would be an excellent mayor and 25% who report he would be a good one.  47% do not think he would excel as mayor, including 19% who believe he would do a fair job in the office while more than one in four — 28% — predict he would perform poorly in City Hall.  13% are unsure.

Once again, New York City Democrats express more faith in Eliot Spitzer.  In NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist’s early July survey, 57% thought Spitzer would do either an excellent — 18% — or good — 39% — job as comptroller.  19% reported he would do a fair job, and 12% said he would fall short.  12%, then, were unsure.

Table: How Would Anthony Weiner Perform as Mayor? (NYC Democrats)

Spitzer with 17 Percentage Point Lead in the Race for NYC Comptroller 

Where does the contest for New York City comptroller stand?  Spitzer — 49% — leads Scott Stringer — 32% — by 17 percentage points among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  Two percent support another candidate, and 17% are undecided.

Spitzer’s lead has widened.  Earlier this month, 42% of Democrats supported Spitzer while 33% were for Stringer.  One percent backed another candidate, and 24% were undecided.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, 48% support Spitzer compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent supports another candidate, and 14% are undecided.  Last time, Spitzer led Stringer 44% to 36% among Democrats likely to vote on Primary Day.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

7/11: A Second Chance for Spitzer? Takes Lead in NYC Comptroller’s Race

Just days after disgraced former New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer announced he would return to politics to run for New York City comptroller, he leads his opponent, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, by nine percentage points.  Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, Spitzer receives the support of 42% compared with 33% for Stringer.  One percent is behind another candidate.  A notable 24% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete July 11, 2013 NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

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“Right now, New York City Democrats are willing to give Spitzer a second chance, but the big question is what happens after the shock value of his return to politics fades and the campaign for comptroller heats up,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Having just recently gone down a similar path with Anthony Weiner, Democrats may reach redemption overload for one or both of these candidates.”

While Spitzer leads Stringer among both men and women, he does slightly better among men.

  • Among men who are Democrats, 44% are for Spitzer while 30% are for Stringer.
  • 40% of women who are Democrats support Spitzer compared with 34% for Stringer.

Spitzer leads among African American and Latino voters.  Stringer has the advantage among white voters.

  • Among Democrats who are African American, Spitzer is favored by 50% while 25% support Stringer.
  • Spitzer — 46% — outpaces Stringer — 29% among Latino Democrats.
  • Stringer leads Spitzer among white voters, 46% to 32%.

The contest is fluid.  In addition to the many undecided voters, just 39% of New York City Democrats say they strongly support their choice of candidate.  36% are somewhat behind their selection while 22% say they might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Spitzer’s supporters are more fervent in their support than are Stringer’s backers.  47% of those for Spitzer say they are strongly committed to their choice.  This compares with 30% of Stringer’s supporters who say they will not waver in their commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary for comptroller, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Spitzer has the backing of 44% compared with 36% for Stringer.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 19% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Comptroller (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

More View Spitzer Favorably than Stringer, But…

When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of the candidates, a plurality — 46% — has a positive opinion of Spitzer.  35% have an unfavorable view of him, and 19% are unsure.  When Marist last reported this question in August 2010, two years after his resignation, New York City Democrats’ view of Spitzer was upside down.  45% of Democrats had an unfavorable impression of Spitzer.  38% thought favorably of him while 17% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Although Spitzer has a higher favorable rating than Stringer, Spitzer’s unfavorable rating is double that of Stringer.  Among New York City Democrats, 40% view Stringer favorably while 17% have a lesser impression of the candidate.  A notable 43% have either never heard of Stringer or are unsure how to rate him.

Table: Eliot Spitzer Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Eliot Spitzer Favorability Over Time (NYC Democrats)

 

 Table: Scott Stringer Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Many Dems Green Light Spitzer for a Second Go Around… 57% with Great Expectations for Comptroller Spitzer

Five years after Spitzer resigned amid revelations that he solicited prostitutes, about two-thirds of Democrats — 67% — believe Spitzer should be given a second chance in the political arena.  Only 25% think Spitzer does not have the character to be the city’s next comptroller.  Eight percent are unsure.

A plurality of New York City Democrats believe Eliot Spitzer has reformed.  More than four in ten — 44% — say the former governor has changed as a person.  25% report he is the same Spitzer, and 32% are unsure.

On his merits, nearly six in ten Democrats — 57% — think Spitzer would do well as comptroller.  Included here are 18% who think he would be excellent in the role and 39% who say he would do a good job as comptroller.  19% report he would perform fairly well in the post while 12% think he would fall short.  12% are unsure.

Table: Does Eliot Spitzer Deserve a Second Chance? (NYC Democrats)

Table: Has Eliot Spitzer Changed as a Person? (NYC Democrats)

Table: How Would Eliot Spitzer Perform as Comptroller? (NYC Democrats)

In the Big Picture, Does It Really Matter?

34% of Democrats think Spitzer’s scandal-plagued past will impact their vote for comptroller a great deal — 20% — or a good amount — 14%.  27% say it will matter only a little to their decision while 35% report it does not matter at all.  Five percent are unsure.

Are Democrats focusing on the comptroller’s race?  About two-thirds of Democrats — 65% — are not following the campaign intently.  Included here are 44% who say they are not following it very closely and 21% who report they are not following the contest at all.  Just 9% are tracking the comptroller’s race very closely while 26% are watching it closely.

Table: Impact of Eliot Spitzer’s Previous Sex Scandal on Vote (NYC Democrats)

Table: How Closely Democrats are Following the Campaign for Comptroller (NYC Democrats)

The Lesser of Two Scandals?

When asked to weigh Spitzer’s previous salacious actions against those of former Congressman Anthony Weiner, there is little consensus about whose actions are considered to be more offensive.  31% consider Weiner sending lewd pictures of himself over the Internet to be more egregious while 29% think Spitzer’s involvement in a prostitution ring is more offensive.  19% report both are just as wrong while 13% believe neither politician’s actions are offensive.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Whether Eliot Spitzer or Anthony Weiner’s Previous Actions are More Offensive (NYC Democrats)

Comptroller Spitzer Trumps Mayor Weiner

When asked whether New York City Democrats would prefer a Comptroller Spitzer or a Mayor Weiner, 38% say they would rather have a Comptroller Spitzer in office.  22% would prefer a Mayor Weiner while 15% would rather have neither.  Eight percent would like both to be elected to their offices of choice.  17% are unsure.

Table: Whether NYC Democrats Would Prefer Comptroller Spitzer to Mayor Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Do Politicians Have a Skeleton in Their Closet? 

Nearly three in four New York City Democrats — 72% — believe politicians have something to hide.  This includes 40% of Democrats citywide who think all people who run for public office have a secret to hide and 32% who believe most politicians are keeping something under wraps.  20% report a few have something they want to keep secret, and only 3% think those who seek public office have nothing to hide.  Five percent are unsure.

Table: Do All Politicians Have Something to Hide? (NYC Democrats)

Bloomberg Approval Rating

46% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 13% who believe the mayor is doing an excellent job and 33% who think he is doing a good one.  28% rate his performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor grades.  Five percent are unsure.

When the NBC New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll reported this question last month,   49% of voters praised Bloomberg’s performance.  31% believed he was doing an average job while 17% said his performance was subpar.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

Direction of the City: Stay the Course, Says Majority

51% of registered voters in New York City believe the city is moving in the right direction.  35% think it is traveling on the wrong course, and 14% are unsure.

Last month, 52% of voters believed New York City was moving in the right direction while 37% reported it required a new trajectory.  11% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

6/26: Weiner Surpasses Quinn among NYC Dems…Lhota Tops GOP Field in Quest for NYC Mayoralty

A month after former Congressman Anthony Weiner announced his candidacy for New York City Mayor, Weiner has moved ahead of his competitors.  He now edges New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn by five percentage points in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 25% Anthony Weiner
  • 20% Christine Quinn
  • 13% Bill Thompson
  • 10% Bill de Blasio
  •   8% John Liu
  •   2% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  •   1% Other
  • 18% Undecided

Click Here for Complete June 26, 2013 The Wall Street Journal/NBC New York/Marist Poll NYC Release and Tables

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“The Weiner candidacy has scrambled the contest,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, nearly one in five Democrats are undecided, and almost two-thirds are not firmly committed to a candidate which makes for a lot of persuadable voters.”

The two frontrunners have traded places.  In May, shortly after Weiner announced his candidacy, 24% of Democrats in New York City supported Quinn while Weiner received the support of 19%.  Bill de Blasio garnered 12%, followed closely by Thompson with 11%.  Eight percent backed Liu while 1% supported Albanese.  Less than 1% backed Salgado while 1% was behind another candidate.  23% of New York City Democrats were undecided.

By borough:

  • In Queens and Staten Island, Weiner — 30% — leads Quinn — 20%.
  • In Brooklyn, Weiner — 23% — also has the advantage over Quinn — 16%.
  • In the Bronx, both Weiner and Quinn each receive the support of 21%.
  • In Manhattan, Quinn — 27% — edges Weiner — 23%.

By gender:

  • While Weiner — 29% — is ahead of Quinn — 19% — among men who are Democrats, Weiner — 22% — and Quinn — 21% — are in a close contest among women.

How strongly do New York City Democrats with a candidate preference support their choice?  36% are firmly committed to their pick.  38% are somewhat in their candidate’s camp while 23% might vote differently.  Three percent are unsure.  There has been little change on this question since last month when 39% expressed strong support for their candidate.  35%, at that time, were somewhat committed to their pick while 25% said they could change their minds.  Two percent were unsure.

When it comes to the intensity of support for the two frontrunners, Weiner still has the edge.  45% of Democrats who back the former Congressman say they are firmly committed to him while 34% of those who are for Quinn proffer the same level of support.  In Marist’s previous survey, 43% of candidate Weiner’s supporters and 30% of candidate Quinn’s backers vowed not to waver in their level of commitment.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Weiner has the backing of 25%.  Quinn runs second with 21% while 14% are for Thompson.  13% supports de Blasio while Liu receives 8%.  Two percent are in Salgado’s camp while 1% supports Albanese.  One percent is behind another candidate, and 16% are undecided.

Looking at the Republican contest, Joe Lhota is ahead of his closest competitor, John Catsimatidis, by seven percentage points.  George McDonald is in third.  A notable 40% citywide have yet to select a candidate.  It’s important to keep in mind the small proportion of Republicans in this survey.

Among registered Republicans in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Republican primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 28% Joe Lhota
  • 21% John Catsimatidis
  • 10% George McDonald
  •   1% Other
  • 40% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, Lhota — 20% — outpaced George McDonald, by 12 percentage points.  At that time, 8% of Republicans citywide supported McDonald.  Catsimatidis received the support of 5% of the vote while Tom Allon — 4% — Adolfo Carrion — 3% — and A.R. Bernard — 2% — rounded out the field.  Three percent, then, supported another candidate, and a majority — 55% — was undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Table: 2013 Republican Primary for Mayor (NYC Republicans with Leaners)

Quinn and Weiner in Tight Race in Runoff …Thompson Runs Competitively

If none of the Democratic candidates receives 40% of the vote, how would they fare in a runoff?  When Quinn — 44% — and Weiner — 42% — face off, they vie for the lead.  14% of New York City Democrats are undecided.

Weiner has gained support during the last month.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 48% of New York City Democrats backed Quinn while 33% supported Weiner.  Almost one in five — 18% — was undecided.

Among New York City Democrats:

  • Thompson has caught up to Quinn.  In a runoff scenario, Quinn — 42% — and Thompson — 40% — are now neck and neck.  18% are undecided.  In May, Quinn — 44% — led Thompson — 34% — by 10 percentage points.  22% were undecided.
  • Against de Blasio, Quinn has 47% compared with 33% for de Blasio.  More than one in five Democrats — 21% — is undecided.  There has been little change on this question.  In Marist’s previous survey, Quinn — 48% — outdistanced de Blasio — 30%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • In a runoff against Liu, Quinn has the support of 49% while Liu garners 32%.  19% are undecided.  In May, a majority of Democrats — 53% — backed Quinn against Liu — 25%.  22%, at that time, were undecided.
  • Thompson — 42% — and Weiner — 41% — are competitive in this hypothetical runoff contest.  18% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 47% — leads Liu — 35% — among New York City Democrats.  19% are undecided.
  • In a runoff scenario against de Blasio, 44% are for Weiner while 39% are for de Blasio.  16% are undecided.

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Weiner vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Sharpton Endorsement Would Do Little to Boost Electoral Chances

If Reverend Al Sharpton were to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for mayor, just 25% of Democrats citywide say they would be more likely to vote for that candidate.  However, a plurality — 45% — would be less likely to do so.  One in five — 20% — reports such an endorsement would make no difference to their vote.  One in ten — 10% — is unsure.

There are racial differences.  Almost four in ten African American Democrats — 39% — would be more likely to support a candidate with Reverend Sharpton’s endorsement.  27% would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, and 22% report it would make no difference to their vote.  Among white Democrats, a majority — 52% — would be less inclined to back a candidate with Mr. Sharpton’s backing.  17% would be more likely to do so, and 23% say it would not impact their vote.  Nearly half of Latino Democrats — 49% — would be less likely to support a candidate with Sharpton’s endorsement.  26% would be more likely to cast their ballot for that candidate, and 14% report it would make no difference to their vote.

Table: Impact of Sharpton Endorsement

Most Dems Still Viewed Positively, But…

Most of the candidates seeking the Democratic nomination are viewed favorably by those in their party.  While Christine Quinn’s favorability rating remains strong, it continues to decline.  Weiner and Thompson, in contrast, currently enjoy a boost in their favorability ratings.

  • Six in ten Democrats in New York City — 60% — have a good impression of Thompson while 16% do not.  25% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Thompson’s favorability rating is up from last month when 52% of Democrats thought well of him.  17% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Quinn, 57% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of her while 29% have an unfavorable view of her.  14% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate her.  Quinn’s positive rating has dipped slightly while her negative rating has inched up.  In May, six in ten Democrats — 60% — had a favorable view of Quinn.  26% had an unfavorable impression of her, and 14% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.
  • A majority of Democrats — 52% — view Weiner well while 36% do not.  11% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Democrats divided in May when 44% had a favorable opinion of Weiner, 44% had an unfavorable impression of the candidate, and 12% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A majority of New York City Democrats — 52% — have a favorable impression of Bill de Blasio.  19% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 29% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, half of Democrats in the city — 50% — had a positive view of de Blasio while 19% had a negative one.  30% had either never heard of de Blasio or were unsure how to rate him.
  • A plurality of Democrats — 47% — have a favorable opinion of Liu.  31% have a lesser view of the candidate, and more than one in five — 22% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  These findings are similar to those reported in May when 45% of Democrats had a positive impression of the candidate, 31% had an unfavorable opinion of him, and 24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • When it comes to Democrats’ impressions of Salgado, the candidate has much still to do to become known among the city’s Democrats.  Nearly six in ten Democrats — 58% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Just 21% have a positive opinion of him while the same proportion — 21% — has an unfavorable one.  Last month, a similar 60% could not offer an opinion of Salgado.  13% thought well of him while 27% had an unfavorable view of the candidate.
  • Albanese also needs to make himself better known to New York City Democrats.  54% have either never heard of Albanese or are unsure how to rate him.  21% have a positive impression of him while 25% have an unfavorable opinion of him.  This is little changed from Marist’s May survey when 55% had either never heard of Albanese or were unsure how to rate him.  18%, then, thought well of Albanese while 26% had an unfavorable view of him.

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Getting to Know the GOP Hopefuls

On the GOP side, more Republicans in New York City have a positive opinion of Joe Lhota.  Catsimatidis has also experienced a bump in his favorability rating, but the candidate still needs to become better acquainted with his party’s faithful.  McDonald also needs to make inroads with his fellow Republicans.

  • A slim majority of Republicans — 51% — have a favorable impression of Lhota.  11% have an unfavorable one, and 38% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s February survey, only 42% had a positive opinion of Lhota.  12% had a lesser view of him, and 46% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 38% think well of Catsimatidis.  17% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 45% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Slightly more Republicans have a positive view of Catsimatidis than did earlier this year.  When Marist last reported this question in February, a majority — 56% — had yet to form an opinion of Catsimatidis.  Three in ten — 30% — gave him a favorable rating while 14% had an unfavorable impression of him.
  • McDonald needs to make his presence known to New York City Republicans.  Nearly seven in ten Republicans — 68% — have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  17% think well of McDonald while 15% do not.  In February, almost two-thirds — 65% — had either never heard of the candidate or were unsure how to rate him.  18% had a positive impression of the candidate while 17% had an unfavorable one.

Table: Joe Lhota Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: John Catsimatidis Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Table: George McDonald Favorability (NYC Republicans)

Democrats Outdistance Republicans by More than Two-to-One

Regardless of who the specific candidates will be in this fall’s general election, the Democrat outpaces the Republican.  If the Democratic candidate were pitted against Joe Lhota and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • 52% of registered voters support Quinn.  15% are for Lhota, and 10% are for Carrion.  22% are undecided.  When Marist last reported this question in February, nearly six in ten voters — 59% — backed Quinn against Lhota — 17% — and Carrion — 8%.  17% were undecided.
  • 52% support de Blasio while 15% are for Lhota.  Six percent back Carrion, and 28% are undecided.
  • Nearly half of voters — 49% — support Thompson.  14% back Lhota, and 9% are for Carrion.  Close to three in ten — 28% — are undecided.
  • 49% are for Liu while Lhota receives 16%, and Carrion garners 8%.  27% are undecided.
  • Weiner — 46% — outpaces Lhota — 17% — by 29 percentage points.  Here, Carrion receives the support of 10%.  27% are undecided.

 If the Democratic candidate were up against John Catsimatidis and the Independence candidate, Adolfo Carrion, here is how the contest would stand among registered voters in New York City:

  • Weiner — 51% — outpaces Catsimatidis — 14% — and Carrion — 10%.  One in four — 25% — is undecided.
  • Thompson — 49% — leads Catsimatidis — 15%.  Carrion receives the support of 8%, and 28% are undecided.
  • A plurality of registered voters — 47% — back Quinn when matched against Catsimatidis — 16%.  Nine percent support Carrion, and 27% are undecided.
  • De Blasio receives the backing of 44%.  Catsimatidis achieves 15%, and Carrion has the support of 10%.  31% are undecided.
  • Four in ten registered voters — 40% — back Liu when against Catsimatidis — 18% — and Carrion — 11%.  31% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — de Blasio/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Thompson/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor – de Blasio/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Liu/Catsimatidis/Carrion (NYC Registered Voters)

Nearly Half of Voters Would Consider Voting for Weiner

Despite the political scars Weiner suffered following the sexting scandal, 49% of registered voters in New York City now say they would consider voting for the embattled politician.  45% would not think about casting their ballot for him, and 6% are unsure.

There has been an increase in the proportion of voters who report they would consider voting for Weiner.  When NBC New York/Marist last reported this question in April, a majority of voters citywide — 52% — would not entertain the idea of supporting Weiner.  40% said they would consider it, and 8% were unsure.

Democrats and non-enrolled voters make the difference.  A majority of Democrats — 53% — say they would cast their ballot for Weiner.  This compares with 46% in April.  While non-enrolled voters divide, there has been a 16 percentage point increase in the proportion of these voters who say they might vote for Weiner.  47% now have this opinion compared with 31% two months ago.

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner? (NYC Registered Voters)

Should Bloomberg Keep Endorsement Under Wraps?

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has reported that he has decided who he wants to succeed him as mayor.  However, he has not announced his choice.  Should he?  New York City voters divide.  44% believe he should while 44% think he should not reveal who he supports.  11% are unsure.

By party:

  • A majority of Republican voters — 53% — say Bloomberg should share his decision.
  • Democrats and non-enrolled voters divide.  47% of Democrats say he should keep his choice to himself while 44% think he should announce his decision.
  • Among non-enrolled voters, 44% want to hear Bloomberg’s choice.  This compares with 42% who think he should keep it private.

Table: Should Bloomberg Reveal the Candidate He Wants to Succeed Him? (NYC Registered Voters)

Giuliani’s Backing of Lhota Helps for Primary, But …

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani still carries sway among the city’s Republicans.  68% of Republican voters say Giuliani’s support of Joe Lhota makes them more likely to vote for Lhota for mayor.  But, Giuliani’s support does little to bolster Lhota’s chances in a general election.  While 29% of registered voters say Giuliani’s backing will make them more likely to vote for Lhota, 46% report it will make them less likely to do so.  16% say it makes little difference to their vote, and 9% are unsure.

Table: Impact of Giuliani’s Endorsement of Lhota (NYC Registered Voters)

Lackluster Interest in Mayor’s Race

But, does it all matter?  Among registered voters in New York City, 39% say they are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  Included here are 7% who are following the contest very closely and 32% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 44% — is not following it very closely while 16% are not tracking it at all.

Interest in the mayor’s race is not yet picking up.  When Marist last reported this question in May, 41% said they were following the contest.  This included 12% who were keeping very close tabs on the election and 29% who were following it closely.  43% said they weren’t watching it very closely, and 16% weren’t tracking the contest at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

A Look at the Race for Public Advocate

While Letitia James and Catherine Guerriero are neck in neck for the Democratic nomination for public advocate, a majority of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary for public advocate were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 17% Letitia James
  • 16% Catherine Guerriero
  •   8% Daniel Squadron
  •   4% Reshma Saujani
  • <1% Other
  • 54% Undecided

The race for public advocate is very fluid.  Among Democrats with a candidate preference, just 34% strongly support their choice.  43% somewhat support their pick, and 20% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Public Advocate (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support for Public Advocate Candidates (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

 

 

5/28: Weiner Shows Gains on the Heels of Candidacy Announcement

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner formally declared his candidacy for mayor of New York City last week.  In the first poll since his online video announcement, Weiner places second with the support of 19% of the city’s registered Democrats.   New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn still leads but with only 24% of Democrats’ support, the lowest she has had in this race.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand:

  • 24% Christine Quinn
  • 19% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •   8% John Liu
  •   1% Sal Albanese
  • <1% Erick Salgado
  •   1% Other
  • 23% Undecided

 Click Here for Complete May 28, 2013 NYC Marist Poll Release and Tables

 “The Democratic primary for mayor remains wide open,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “It is likely to come down to who can punch their ticket for the runoff.”

In April, amid speculation Weiner would enter the race for mayor, he garnered the support of 15% of registered Democrats.  Quinn at that time received 26%, a lead of eleven points.  12%, last month, indicated they would vote for John Liu.  Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson each received 11%.  Sal Albanese had 2%, and 1% mentioned another candidate.  22% were undecided.

The race continues to be fluid although slightly more Democrats are committed to their vote than in April.  39% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are strongly committed to their choice, and an additional 35% are somewhat behind their candidate.  25% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.  In April, only 34% strongly supported their choice, 30% somewhat supported their candidate, and 35% reported they might vote differently.  Two percent were unsure.

Intensity of support varies for the two frontrunners.  Among those who support Christine Quinn, 30% are strongly behind her, and 42% somewhat support her. 24% say they might vote differently, and 4% are undecided.  Anthony Weiner’s supporters are a bit stronger in their backing.  43% strongly support him while 38% are somewhat supportive. 17% might vote differently, and 2% are unsure.

Among Democrats who are likely to vote in September’s primary, Quinn receives 24% followed by Weiner with 19%, de Blasio with 14%, Thompson with 13%, Liu with 8%, Albanese with 1%, and Salgado with less than 1%.  21% of likely Democrats are undecided.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats with a Candidate Preference)

Quinn Leads Hypothetical Runoffs

If none of the candidates garners 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, a runoff will be held between the top two vote getting candidates.   Quinn leads in hypothetical runoffs against other Democratic candidates:

  • Quinn garners 48% to 33% for Anthony Weiner. 18% are undecided.
  • Quinn with 48% tops de Blasio with 30%.  22% remain undecided.
  • Quinn has majority support, 53%, against Liu who receives 25%.  22% are undecided.
  • Against Thompson, Quinn receives 44% of Democrats’ support to 34% for Thompson.  22% are undecided

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Weiner (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. de Blasio (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Liu (NYC Democrats)

Table: Runoff Quinn vs. Thompson (NYC Democrats)

Majority Willing to Give Weiner a Second Chance, But….

How do registered voters in New York City react to Anthony Weiner’s candidacy when considering the sexting scandal that resulted in his resignation from Congress?  A majority of voters — 53% — say he deserves a second chance.  39% believe Weiner does not have the character to be mayor, and 8% are unsure.  Among Democrats, 59% think he deserves a second chance.  58% of non-enrolled voters feel the same.  However, six in ten Republicans — 61% — believe he does not have the character to be mayor.

But registered Democrats divide when asked about their impressions of Weiner.  44% of Democrats view him favorably, while 44% do not. 12% are unsure.  In April, 45% of the city’s Democrats had a favorable view of Weiner, and 41% had a negative view of him.  15% were unsure at the time.

Table: Anthony Weiner Second Chance (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Most Democratic Candidates for Mayor Viewed Favorably, But Not Well Known

Among the other candidates for the Democratic nomination for mayor, most are seen in a positive light by Democratic voters:

  • Christine Quinn is the most well-known.  She is viewed favorably by 60% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 26%. 14% are unsure or have never heard of her.  This is relatively unchanged from April when 59% viewed her positively and 23% had a negative impression of her.  18% were unsure how to rate her or hadn’t heard of her.
  • Bill Thompson receives a positive rating from 52% of Democrats compared with 17% who have a negative view of him.  About three out of ten Democrats, 31%, are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  In April, 43% of Democrats viewed Thompson favorably while 21% did not.  36% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Bill de Blasio is viewed favorably by 50% of registered Democrats and unfavorably by 19%.  30% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 42% of New York City Democrats viewed him positively, and 23% viewed him negatively.  35%, at that time, were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • 45% of registered Democrats give John Liu a positive rating.  31% have a negative impression of him, and 24% are unsure how to rate him or haven’t heard of him.  In April, 40% viewed him favorably, and 32% viewed him unfavorably.  28% were unsure how to rate him or hadn’t heard of Liu.
  • Sal Albanese remains relatively unknown.  18% of Democrats have a positive impression of him, and 26% view him negatively.  A majority — 55% — are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  Last month, 18% had a favorable impression of him, and 27% viewed him unfavorably. 55% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.
  • Erick Salgado is the least known candidate in the Democratic field.  60% of registered Democrats are unsure how to rate him or have never heard of him.  13% of Democrats have a positive impression of him while 27% do not.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Erick Salgado Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Interest in Mayor’s Race Remains Low

Only 41% of registered voters in the city are paying attention to the campaign for mayor.  This includes 12% who are following it very closely and 29% who are watching it closely.  A plurality — 43% — are not following the race very closely, and another 16% are not paying attention to it at all.

These numbers are mostly unchanged from April when 38% of registered voters said they were paying very close or close attention to the race for mayor.  At that time, 45% were not following it very closely, and 18% were not following it at all.

Democrats are not much different in their attentiveness to the campaign than city voters as a whole.  44% of registered Democrats are currently following the campaign for mayor closely, and 55% are not.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race (NYC Registered Voters)

City Moving in Right Direction, Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Steady

A majority of New York City voters — 52% — think the city is moving in the right direction.  37% believe it is going in the wrong direction, and 11% are unsure.  Similarly, when Marist last reported this in April, 55% of registered voters said the city was on the right track.  38% said the city needed a course correction, and 7% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: New York City Direction Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

 

Mayor Bloomberg’s approval rating also remains steady.  48% give him high marks, including 12% who say Bloomberg is doing an excellent job as mayor and 36% who say he is doing a good job.  30% rate his job performance as fair, and 19% say he is doing poorly.  Three percent are unsure.

Last month, 46% approved of how Bloomberg was performing as mayor. 32% said he was doing a fair job, and 21% rated his job performance as poor.  One percent was unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time (NYC Registered Voters)

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest

Nearly two years after resigning his Congressional seat due to a sexting scandal, how do New York City voters react to Anthony Weiner’s potential run for mayor?  When he is included in the field of candidates for the Democratic nomination, Weiner receives the support of 15% of Democratic voters, placing him second after frontrunner Christine Quinn.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

  • 26% Christine Quinn
  • 15% Anthony Weiner
  • 12% John Liu
  • 11% Bill de Blasio
  • 11% Bill Thompson
  •  2% Sal Albanese
  •  1% Other
  • 22% Undecided

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2013 NYC NBC New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from a similar survey conducted in February.

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

  • 30% Christine Quinn
  • 15% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  • 11% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 26% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, 37% of Democratic voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate supported Quinn.  13% backed Thompson, and 12% were for de Blasio.  Nine percent supported Liu while only 2% backed Albanese.  One percent was for another candidate, and 26% were undecided.

To punctuate the fluidity of the Democratic primary contest, only 34% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are firmly committed to that candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 35% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  In February’s survey, three in ten Democrats with a candidate preference — 30% — said they strongly supported their choice.  34% were somewhat in their candidate’s corner while 32% thought they might vote differently on primary day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

When Weiner is not in the Democratic primary field, Quinn and de Blasio are each four percentage points higher, and Thompson has three percentage points more in support. Undecided is also four percentage points higher when Weiner is not listed as a candidate.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor with Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

A Redemption Story?  Democrats Not Keen on Weiner Run for Mayor, But…

As Weiner contemplates his return to elective politics, 40% of registered Democrats want Weiner to seek the mayoralty, while 46% do not want him to run.  14% are unsure.  Citywide, only 37% want him to run, while 47% do not want to see him become a candidate for mayor this year.  16% are undecided.

However, these numbers have improved for Weiner since a similar Marist Poll conducted last October.  At that time, only 28% of registered Democrats wanted Weiner to throw his hat into the ring.  57% did not, and 14% were unsure.  Among all registered voters, only one in four – 25% — wanted Weiner to enter the contest for mayor and 58% did not want him to run. 17% were unsure.  At the height of Weiner’s political difficulties in June 2011, 25% of voters wanted Weiner to run for mayor.  56% did not, and 19% were unsure.

Weiner’s favorability has also improved. He now has a net positive rating among registered Democrats.  45% of Democrats have a favorable view of Weiner while 41% have an unfavorable impression of him.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, his rating was upside down.  Only 34% of Democrats viewed Weiner favorably at that time, and 43% had an unfavorable impression of him.  23% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.

Overall, 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Weiner, while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  19% are unsure or have never heard of him. This is also an improvement from two months ago when only 30% had a positive impression of Weiner, and 46% did not think well of him.  24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him at that time.

Would New York City voters consider casting their ballot for the scandal-scarred former congressman?  Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.

Is it a question of character?  There’s little consensus.  37% of Democrats think Weiner has changed as a person in the past two years while 32% believe he has not reformed. 31% are unsure.  Citywide 33% of registered voters think he has changed during this time, 33% believe he has not, and 34% are unsure.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner?

Table: Has Former Congressman Anthony Weiner Changed as a Person?

All Democratic Hopefuls Viewed Less Favorably

 59% of New York City Democrats have a positive impression of Quinn while 23% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure.  Slightly fewer Democrats now think well of Christine Quinn.  Two months ago, nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, had a favorable opinion of her.  17% had an unfavorable one, and 18% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

What are Democrats’ views toward the other candidates in the field?

  • 43% have a favorable view of Bill Thompson.  21% have an unfavorable one, and 36% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, almost half of Democrats — 49% — had a positive opinion of Thompson.  One in five — 20% — had an unfavorable one, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Looking at de Blasio’s image, 42% of Democrats think well of him while 23% do not.  35% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, 48% of Democrats had a favorable impression of de Blasio.  20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Liu while 32% do not.  28% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 43% had a positive impression of Liu.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 30%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
  • Albanese has failed to make inroads with his party’s faithful. Just 18% of Democrats have a positive view of him.  27% have an unfavorable impression of Albanese, and a majority — 55% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 26% thought well of Albanese, 20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 54% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

 Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota

Low Interest in Mayor’s Race

 Only 38% of registered voters are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  This includes 8% who are following the contest very closely and 30% who are watching it closely.  45% are not following it very closely, and 18% are not following it at all.

In February, 30% reported they were following the mayor’s race very closely or closely.  44% said they weren’t paying much attention to the contest, and 26% reported they weren’t watching it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Shows Slight Decline

How do registered voters think Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office?  46% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who think Bloomberg is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who believe he is doing a good one.  32% rate the mayor’s performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor marks.  One percent is unsure.

In February’s survey, 50% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  32% thought he was doing a mediocre job while 16% said he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

A City on Track, Says Majority

 55% of registered voters in New York City think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38% believe it is traveling on the wrong road, and 7% are unsure.  In Marist’s February survey, 55% thought the city was on the right path.  36% reported it needed a course correction, and 8% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

October 18, 2012 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

7/28: Democratic Race for NYC Mayor Wide Open

July 28, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013.  The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%.  They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.

hand casting ballot

©istockphoto.com/imagestock

Click Here for Complete July 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for a very fluid contest.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City.  Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide.  At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer.  27%, then, were undecided.  Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty

Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013.  Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty? (Over Time)

Trend Graph: Should Eliot Spitzer run for NYC mayor?

Click on the graph to enlarge the image.

New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy

How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?”  The electorate divides.  Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race.  16% are unsure.

Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring.  This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

7/22: Nearly One in Five Internet Users Regret Online Behavior

July 22, 2011 by  
Filed under Cyber Corner, Featured, Science & Tech, Tech Box

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sexting scandal sent shock waves throughout the nation.  But, can American Internet users relate to Mr. Weiner’s questionable online behavior?

finger on keyboard

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Click Here for Complete July 22, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Although 82% of Internet users nationally say they have never sent or said anything over the Internet that they regret, a notable 18% have.

Younger Internet users are more likely than older ones to have engaged in regrettable online actions.  24% of Internet users younger than 45 years old compared with 13% of those 45 and older report this to be the case.  And, men who use the Internet — 21% — are slightly more likely than female Internet users — 15% — to have sent or said something online they wish they could take back.

In general, what kind of impact does social media like Facebook have on relationships?  Half of Internet users nationwide — 50% — think social media does more harm than good.  About one-third — 33% — report social media does more good than harm, and 17% are unsure.  Similar proportions of adults overall share these views.  51% of residents think social media does more harm than good while nearly three in ten adults — 29% — think it has a positive impact.  20% are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices
Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

Marist Poll Methodology

6/9: Weiner Still Alive: Majority in Congressional District Don’t Want Resignation

June 9, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

As more salacious details about Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal are revealed, politicians from both parties are calling for his resignation, but his constituents don’t agree.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Click Here for Complete June 9th, 2011 New York’s 9th Congressional District NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, a majority of registered voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District — 56% — do not think Anthony Weiner should resign from Congress.  However, one-third — 33% — believe he should, and 12% are unsure.

“Congressman Weiner’s constituents are drawing a line between his ethical conduct and professional judgment.  The bottom line: they’re still in his corner on the question of resignation,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As for his re-election prospects, that’s still very much up in the air.”

Judgment is at the heart of the question.  Voters are weighing in on the line between his private life and his public responsibilities.  46% of adults in Congressman Weiner’s district view the scandal as solely a lapse in personal judgment.  10% think it brings into question primarily his professional judgment.  29% are not confident in either his personal or professional judgment.  15% do not see this as an issue of judgment.

When it comes to the legality of the congressman’s online actions, nearly three in four adults in the 9th district — 73% — believe the congressman acted unethically but not illegally.  11% say he behaved illegally while 9% report he did nothing wrong.  Seven percent are unsure.

Voters in the congressman’s district, however, are torn about how effective he will be in carrying out his duties in Congress if he doesn’t step down.  While nearly half of voters — 48% — say Congressman Weiner will be effective, 43% report he will not be.  Included in those who believe the congressman will carry out his duties well are 11% who say he will be very effective and 37% who believe he will be effective.  In contrast, 28% say the congressman will not be very effective, and 15% have no confidence in his ability to effectively serve his constituents in light of this scandal.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?  (New York’s 9th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Judgment

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions (New York’s 9th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Effectiveness in Congress

Anthony Weiner’s Electoral Future Hangs in the Balance

If Anthony Weiner runs for re-election in 2012, voters are taking a wait and see approach.  While 31% of the congressman’s constituents say they would definitely vote against Anthony Weiner, 30% report they will definitely vote for him, and a notable 38% are undecided.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Electability

Anthony Weiner Approval Rating at 44%… Favorability Low

When it comes to the job Anthony Weiner is doing in Congress, 44% approve.  This includes 12% who think he is doing an excellent job in office and 32% who report his is doing a good one.  More than one in five — 22% — give the congressman fair marks while 16% rate him poorly.  17% are unsure how to rate Anthony Weiner, and 2% have never heard of him.

When it comes to Anthony Weiner’s favorability, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him while 38% view him favorably.  One in five — 20% — are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Job Approval Rating

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Favorability

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

6/7: Weiner Undone: Slim Majority Want Weiner to Remain in Congress… No Go for Mayor

June 7, 2011 by  
Filed under Featured, NYC, NYC Poll Archive, Politics

In the wake of U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner’s emotional admission that he engaged in inappropriate online activity with women other than his wife, a little more than half of New York City registered voters still want Weiner to remain in Congress.  A majority, however, say Weiner should bid farewell to his hopes of becoming the next mayor of New York City.

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner

Click Here for Complete June 7, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll conducted just hours after the story broke, 51% of New York City voters believe Anthony Weiner should not resign from Congress.  30% disagree and think he should step down, and a notable 18% are unsure.

However, when it comes to the 2013 race for New York City mayor, voters want Congressman Weiner to stay out.  A majority — 56% — do not want him to make a bid for the office, including a majority of Democrats.  25% of registered voters would like to see him campaign, and 19% are unsure.

“All of this spells trouble for Congressman Weiner and his political future,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For voters, there are questions of judgment — never a winner for an office-holder.”

House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is calling for an investigation into Weiner’s actions, but do New York City residents think Congressman Weiner acted illegally?  Slightly more than six in ten — 61% — believe his behavior was unethical but not illegal.  13% say his actions constituted illegal behavior while the same proportion — 13% — report Weiner did nothing wrong.  An additional 14% are unsure.

The congressman has admitted that his actions were personal flaws and apologized to his wife, his family, his constituents, and the media.  However, those in New York City don’t think his teary mea culpa was sincere.  Nearly two-thirds of New York City residents — 64% — report Weiner apologized only because he got caught while 24% think he is truly sorry.  12% are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 NYC Mayoralty?

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Apology

Racy Online Rendezvous: The Exception or the Rule?

While a majority of New York City residents — 54% — believe sending lewd photos over the Internet is unusual practice for politicians, a notable 30% of New Yorkers think it is common practice.  16% are unsure.

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Common Practice by Politicians?

Does the Internet Ruin Lives? Internet Users Don’t Regret Behavior, but View Lewd Photo Exchange as Cheating

Most Internet users don’t have any regrets when it comes to their own online behavior.  83% say they have not said or sent anything over the Internet that they regret while 17% have.

Congressman Anthony Weiner admitted yesterday that he exchanged lewd photos and engaged in other provocative activities with women other than his wife.  Do New York City residents consider that to be cheating?  Six in ten — 60% — think it does constitute infidelity.  About one-third — 32% — says it does not, and 7% are unsure.

If residents discovered their partner engaged in this type of behavior, half would hold a grudge. In fact, 50% report they would not forgive their partner if he or she sent sexually charged photos of themselves to someone over the Internet while 33% would forgive them.  17% are unsure.

Women are less likely than men to forgive these indiscretions.  A majority of women — 54% — would not forgive their partner while 27% would.  This compares with 45% of men who wouldn’t let go of the incident while 40% would move past it and forgive their partner.

So, overall, does social media, like Facebook, do more harm than good, or does it do more good than harm?  A majority — 54% — believe it is hurtful to relationships while 19% say it makes personal connections better.  More than one in four New York City residents — 27% — are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Cheating?

Table: Forgive Partner for Engaging in Inappropriate Online Behavior?

Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

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