4/16: Weiner Candidacy for Mayor Could Scramble Democratic Primary Contest

Nearly two years after resigning his Congressional seat due to a sexting scandal, how do New York City voters react to Anthony Weiner’s potential run for mayor?  When he is included in the field of candidates for the Democratic nomination, Weiner receives the support of 15% of Democratic voters, placing him second after frontrunner Christine Quinn.

Among registered Democrats in New York City, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand with Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 26% Christine Quinn
• 15% Anthony Weiner
• 12% John Liu
• 11% Bill de Blasio
• 11% Bill Thompson
•  2% Sal Albanese
•  1% Other
• 22% Undecided

Click Here for Complete April 16, 2013 NYC NBC New York/Marist Poll Release and Tables

“Right now, a Weiner candidacy attracts double-digit support in the Democratic primary,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “He makes it even more difficult for any of the Democratic contenders to reach the needed forty percent to avoid a run-off.”

When Democratic voters are asked to select their preference in the primary for New York City mayor without Anthony Weiner in the race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn continues to outpoll her rivals.  However, her support has declined from a similar survey conducted in February.

Among registered Democrats in New York City including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, if the Democratic primary were held today, here is how the contest would stand without Anthony Weiner in the race:

• 30% Christine Quinn
• 15% Bill de Blasio
• 14% Bill Thompson
• 11% John Liu
•   2% Sal Albanese
•   2% Other
• 26% Undecided

When Marist last reported this question in February, 37% of Democratic voters including those who were undecided yet leaning toward a candidate supported Quinn.  13% backed Thompson, and 12% were for de Blasio.  Nine percent supported Liu while only 2% backed Albanese.  One percent was for another candidate, and 26% were undecided.

To punctuate the fluidity of the Democratic primary contest, only 34% of Democrats who have a candidate preference are firmly committed to that candidate.  30% are somewhat behind their pick while 35% might vote differently.  Two percent are unsure.  In February’s survey, three in ten Democrats with a candidate preference — 30% — said they strongly supported their choice.  34% were somewhat in their candidate’s corner while 32% thought they might vote differently on primary day.  Three percent, at the time, were unsure.

When Weiner is not in the Democratic primary field, Quinn and de Blasio are each four percentage points higher, and Thompson has three percentage points more in support. Undecided is also four percentage points higher when Weiner is not listed as a candidate.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor with Anthony Weiner (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor (NYC Democrats with Leaners)

Table: Intensity of Support (NYC Democrats)

A Redemption Story?  Democrats Not Keen on Weiner Run for Mayor, But…

As Weiner contemplates his return to elective politics, 40% of registered Democrats want Weiner to seek the mayoralty, while 46% do not want him to run.  14% are unsure.  Citywide, only 37% want him to run, while 47% do not want to see him become a candidate for mayor this year.  16% are undecided.

However, these numbers have improved for Weiner since a similar Marist Poll conducted last October.  At that time, only 28% of registered Democrats wanted Weiner to throw his hat into the ring.  57% did not, and 14% were unsure.  Among all registered voters, only one in four – 25% — wanted Weiner to enter the contest for mayor and 58% did not want him to run. 17% were unsure.  At the height of Weiner’s political difficulties in June 2011, 25% of voters wanted Weiner to run for mayor.  56% did not, and 19% were unsure.

Weiner’s favorability has also improved. He now has a net positive rating among registered Democrats.  45% of Democrats have a favorable view of Weiner while 41% have an unfavorable impression of him.  15% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  Two months ago, his rating was upside down.  Only 34% of Democrats viewed Weiner favorably at that time, and 43% had an unfavorable impression of him.  23% were unsure how to rate him or had never heard of him.

Overall, 39% of registered voters have a favorable impression of Weiner, while 43% have an unfavorable impression of him.  19% are unsure or have never heard of him. This is also an improvement from two months ago when only 30% had a positive impression of Weiner, and 46% did not think well of him.  24% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him at that time.

Would New York City voters consider casting their ballot for the scandal-scarred former congressman?  Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.

Is it a question of character?  There’s little consensus.  37% of Democrats think Weiner has changed as a person in the past two years while 32% believe he has not reformed. 31% are unsure.  Citywide 33% of registered voters think he has changed during this time, 33% believe he has not, and 34% are unsure.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Anthony Weiner Favorability (NYC Registered Voters)

Table: Consider Voting for Former Congressman Anthony Weiner?

Table: Has Former Congressman Anthony Weiner Changed as a Person?

All Democratic Hopefuls Viewed Less Favorably

 59% of New York City Democrats have a positive impression of Quinn while 23% have an unfavorable one.  18% have either never heard of her or are unsure.  Slightly fewer Democrats now think well of Christine Quinn.  Two months ago, nearly two-thirds of Democrats, 65%, had a favorable opinion of her.  17% had an unfavorable one, and 18% had either never heard of her or were unsure how to rate her.

What are Democrats’ views toward the other candidates in the field?

• 43% have a favorable view of Bill Thompson.  21% have an unfavorable one, and 36% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, almost half of Democrats — 49% — had a positive opinion of Thompson.  One in five — 20% — had an unfavorable one, and 31% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Looking at de Blasio’s image, 42% of Democrats think well of him while 23% do not.  35% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In Marist’s previous survey, 48% of Democrats had a favorable impression of de Blasio.  20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 32% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Liu while 32% do not.  28% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 43% had a positive impression of Liu.  27% had an unfavorable one, and 30%, at the time, had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.
• Albanese has failed to make inroads with his party’s faithful. Just 18% of Democrats have a positive view of him.  27% have an unfavorable impression of Albanese, and a majority — 55% — has either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate him.  In February, 26% thought well of Albanese, 20% had an unfavorable view of him, and 54% had either never heard of him or were unsure how to rate him.

Table: Christine Quinn Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill Thompson Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Bill de Blasio Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: John Liu Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Table: Sal Albanese Favorability (NYC Democrats)

Quinn Outdistances Lhota…Weiner Also Has Advantage Over GOP Hopeful

 Looking ahead to the general election, Christine Quinn gets the nod from a majority of voters citywide against Republican Joe Lhota.  Quinn has the support of 59% compared with 19% for Lhota.  21% of registered voters are undecided.  In February, 64% of voters backed Quinn while 18% supported Lhota.  18% were also undecided.

How does Anthony Weiner fare against Lhota?  Weiner – 51% — leads Lhota – 28% — among registered voters in New York City.  21% are undecided.

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Quinn/Lhota

Table: 2013 Race for Mayor — Weiner/Lhota

Low Interest in Mayor’s Race

 Only 38% of registered voters are paying attention to the mayor’s race.  This includes 8% who are following the contest very closely and 30% who are watching it closely.  45% are not following it very closely, and 18% are not following it at all.

In February, 30% reported they were following the mayor’s race very closely or closely.  44% said they weren’t paying much attention to the contest, and 26% reported they weren’t watching it at all.

Table: How Closely Voters are Following Mayor’s Race

Bloomberg’s Approval Rating Shows Slight Decline

How do registered voters think Mayor Bloomberg is doing in office?  46% give the mayor high marks.  This includes 12% who think Bloomberg is doing an excellent job in office and 34% who believe he is doing a good one.  32% rate the mayor’s performance as fair while 21% give Bloomberg poor marks.  One percent is unsure.

In February’s survey, 50% approved of Bloomberg’s job performance.  32% thought he was doing a mediocre job while 16% said he fell short.  Two percent, then, were unsure.

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

A City on Track, Says Majority

 55% of registered voters in New York City think the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38% believe it is traveling on the wrong road, and 7% are unsure.  In Marist’s February survey, 55% thought the city was on the right path.  36% reported it needed a course correction, and 8% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

 

How the Survey was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

10/18: Quinn Still Leader of Democratic Field, But…

Looking ahead to the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has the support of 23% of Democrats citywide.  Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson follows with 15%.  Nine percent of registered Democrats citywide are for current Comptroller John Liu while 8% support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio.  Six percent back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer while the publisher of Manhattan Media, Tom Allon, receives 2%.  Nearly four in ten registered Democrats in New York City — 37% — are unsure.

Click Here for Complete October 18, 2012 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“There’s still a long way to go before Democrats go to the polls,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Nearly four in ten Democrats in the city are undecided.”

When compared with NY1-Marist’s April survey, more Democrats in the city are unsure about whom to support in the contest.  At that time, more than three in ten New York City Democrats — 32% — favored Quinn.  12% supported Thompson, and 10% were for de Blasio.  Liu received the backing of 9% while Stringer garnered 7%.  Only 1% of Democrats were behind Allon, and 29% were unsure.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Plurality Says, “No Go” for Kelly Mayoralty

46% of registered voters in New York City do not want Police Commissioner Ray Kelly to run for mayor.  35% support a Kelly candidacy.  19% are unsure.

In NY1-Marist’s July 2011 survey, voters divided.  42% believed Kelly should stay out of the race while the same proportion — 42% — wanted him to throw his hat into the ring.  16%, at that time, were unsure.

Other well-known names have been bandied about as possible mayoralty candidates.  How do they fare?  58% of registered voters citywide do not want Anthony Weiner to run for mayor while one in four — 25% — does.  17% are unsure.

There has been little change on this question since NY1-Marist last reported it in July of 2011.  At that time, 64% of voters citywide did not want Weiner to seek the office while 26% did.  One in ten, at that time, was unsure.

When it comes to Eliot Spitzer, 57% of registered voters want him to stay out of the contest while 30% would like to see him enter it.  13% are unsure.  Here, too, there is little difference from the last time this question was asked in July of 2011.  At that time, the same proportion — 57% — reported Spitzer should not run for mayor while 33% thought he should.  Nine percent, then, were unsure.

What about actor Alec Baldwin?  66% of registered voters say they don’t want the actor to turn politician.  18%, though, would like to see Baldwin enter the contest.  16% are unsure.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?

Table: Actor Alec Baldwin 2013 Mayoralty?

Bloomberg Approval Rating Steady

45% of registered voters in New York City approve of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing in office.  This includes 10% who say he is doing an excellent job and 35% who report he is doing a good one.  32% report his performance is fair while 20% call it poor.  Only three percent are unsure.

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, 44% of registered voters gave Bloomberg high marks.  Included here were 12% who said he was doing an excellent job and 32% who believed he was doing a good one.  33% gave the mayor average grades while 22% thought his performance was subpar.  Only 1%, then, was unsure.

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating

Table: Mayor Michael Bloomberg Approval Rating Over Time

Bloomberg’s Legacy

How will Mayor Bloomberg be remembered after he leaves office?  43% of registered voters believe he will leave a positive legacy.  This includes 12% who think he will be remembered as one of the city’s best mayors and 31% who say he will be considered an above average mayor.  34% think Bloomberg will be thought of as an average mayor while 12% report he will be remembered as a below average one.  Eight percent have low expectations and say Bloomberg will be considered one of the city’s worst mayors.

Little has changed on this question since April.  At that time, 39% thought Bloomberg would leave a positive legacy behind.  39% said he would be considered an average mayor while 13% believed he would be looked upon as a subpar mayor.  Nine percent, at that time, reported Bloomberg would be thought of as one of New York City’s worst mayors.

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy

Table: Bloomberg’s Legacy Over Time

Majority Remains Optimistic about the Direction of the City

51% of registered voters citywide say the Big Apple is moving in the right direction.  38%, however, believe it is moving in the wrong one.  10% are unsure.

Here, too, the findings are similar to the NY1-Marist April survey when 52% thought New York City was on the right course.  More than four in ten voters — 42% — said it was on the wrong one, and 6% were unsure.

Table: New York City Direction

Table: New York City Direction Over Time

How the Survey Was Conducted

Nature of the Sample

 

7/28: Democratic Race for NYC Mayor Wide Open

In the aftermath of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal about one-third of New York City’s Democrats, 32%, are undecided about whom to support in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2013.  The leading contenders are City Council Speaker Christine Quinn with 16%, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson with 15%, and Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz with 14%.  They are followed by New York City Comptroller John Liu who receives 9%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio who has the support of 7%, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer who garners 6%, and Publisher Tom Allon who is backed by 1% of Democrats citywide.

Click Here for Complete July 28, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

“With Weiner out of the picture, there are twice as many undecided voters than voters who support any one of the current contenders,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “That makes for a very fluid contest.”

When NY1-Marist last reported this question in April, now former Congressman Anthony Weiner received the backing of 18% of Democrats in New York City.  Thompson took 15% while Liu and Quinn each received 13% of the Democratic vote citywide.  At that time, 9% of Democrats reported they were pulling for de Blasio while 4% backed Stringer.  27%, then, were undecided.  Markowitz was not included in the previous survey.

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Voters Want Weiner, Spitzer Out of 2013 Mayoralty

Citywide few voters, including those within their own party, want the sex scandal plagued pols, former Congressman Anthony Weiner or former Governor Eliot Spitzer, to seek the New York City mayoralty in 2013.  Only 26% would like to see Weiner in the race and just 33% would want Spitzer to enter the contest.

Table: Former Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty?
Table: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer 2013 Mayoralty? (Over Time)

New York City Voters Divide Over Top Cop Candidacy

How do New York City voters feel about Police Commissioner Ray Kelly becoming “Candidate Kelly?”  The electorate divides.  Citywide, 42%, would like to see Kelly run for mayor and 42% say he should stay out of the race.  16% are unsure.

Among Democrats, 41% would like Kelly to toss his proverbial hat into the ring.  This compares with 54% of Republicans and 35% of non-enrolled voters who say the same.

Table: Police Commissioner Ray Kelly 2013 Mayoralty?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

7/22: Nearly One in Five Internet Users Regret Online Behavior

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sexting scandal sent shock waves throughout the nation.  But, can American Internet users relate to Mr. Weiner’s questionable online behavior?

Click Here for Complete July 22, 2011 USA Marist Poll Release and Tables

Although 82% of Internet users nationally say they have never sent or said anything over the Internet that they regret, a notable 18% have.

Younger Internet users are more likely than older ones to have engaged in regrettable online actions.  24% of Internet users younger than 45 years old compared with 13% of those 45 and older report this to be the case.  And, men who use the Internet — 21% — are slightly more likely than female Internet users — 15% — to have sent or said something online they wish they could take back.

In general, what kind of impact does social media like Facebook have on relationships?  Half of Internet users nationwide — 50% — think social media does more harm than good.  About one-third — 33% — report social media does more good than harm, and 17% are unsure.  Similar proportions of adults overall share these views.  51% of residents think social media does more harm than good while nearly three in ten adults — 29% — think it has a positive impact.  20% are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices
Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

Marist Poll Methodology

6/9: Weiner Still Alive: Majority in Congressional District Don’t Want Resignation

As more salacious details about Congressman Anthony Weiner’s sex scandal are revealed, politicians from both parties are calling for his resignation, but his constituents don’t agree.

Click Here for Complete June 9^th, 2011 New York’s 9^th Congressional District NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll, a majority of registered voters in New York’s 9^th Congressional District — 56% — do not think Anthony Weiner should resign from Congress.  However, one-third — 33% — believe he should, and 12% are unsure.

“Congressman Weiner’s constituents are drawing a line between his ethical conduct and professional judgment.  The bottom line: they’re still in his corner on the question of resignation,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “As for his re-election prospects, that’s still very much up in the air.”

Judgment is at the heart of the question.  Voters are weighing in on the line between his private life and his public responsibilities.  46% of adults in Congressman Weiner’s district view the scandal as solely a lapse in personal judgment.  10% think it brings into question primarily his professional judgment.  29% are not confident in either his personal or professional judgment.  15% do not see this as an issue of judgment.

When it comes to the legality of the congressman’s online actions, nearly three in four adults in the 9^th district — 73% — believe the congressman acted unethically but not illegally.  11% say he behaved illegally while 9% report he did nothing wrong.  Seven percent are unsure.

Voters in the congressman’s district, however, are torn about how effective he will be in carrying out his duties in Congress if he doesn’t step down.  While nearly half of voters — 48% — say Congressman Weiner will be effective, 43% report he will not be.  Included in those who believe the congressman will carry out his duties well are 11% who say he will be very effective and 37% who believe he will be effective.  In contrast, 28% say the congressman will not be very effective, and 15% have no confidence in his ability to effectively serve his constituents in light of this scandal.  Nine percent are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?  (New York’s 9^th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Judgment

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions (New York’s 9^th Congressional District)

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Effectiveness in Congress

Anthony Weiner’s Electoral Future Hangs in the Balance

If Anthony Weiner runs for re-election in 2012, voters are taking a wait and see approach.  While 31% of the congressman’s constituents say they would definitely vote against Anthony Weiner, 30% report they will definitely vote for him, and a notable 38% are undecided.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Electability

Anthony Weiner Approval Rating at 44%… Favorability Low

When it comes to the job Anthony Weiner is doing in Congress, 44% approve.  This includes 12% who think he is doing an excellent job in office and 32% who report his is doing a good one.  More than one in five — 22% — give the congressman fair marks while 16% rate him poorly.  17% are unsure how to rate Anthony Weiner, and 2% have never heard of him.

When it comes to Anthony Weiner’s favorability, 42% have an unfavorable impression of him while 38% view him favorably.  One in five — 20% — are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Job Approval Rating

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Favorability

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

6/7: Weiner Undone: Slim Majority Want Weiner to Remain in Congress… No Go for Mayor

In the wake of U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner’s emotional admission that he engaged in inappropriate online activity with women other than his wife, a little more than half of New York City registered voters still want Weiner to remain in Congress.  A majority, however, say Weiner should bid farewell to his hopes of becoming the next mayor of New York City.

Click Here for Complete June 7, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

According to this NY1-Marist Poll conducted just hours after the story broke, 51% of New York City voters believe Anthony Weiner should not resign from Congress.  30% disagree and think he should step down, and a notable 18% are unsure.

However, when it comes to the 2013 race for New York City mayor, voters want Congressman Weiner to stay out.  A majority — 56% — do not want him to make a bid for the office, including a majority of Democrats.  25% of registered voters would like to see him campaign, and 19% are unsure.

“All of this spells trouble for Congressman Weiner and his political future,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “For voters, there are questions of judgment — never a winner for an office-holder.”

House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is calling for an investigation into Weiner’s actions, but do New York City residents think Congressman Weiner acted illegally?  Slightly more than six in ten — 61% — believe his behavior was unethical but not illegal.  13% say his actions constituted illegal behavior while the same proportion — 13% — report Weiner did nothing wrong.  An additional 14% are unsure.

The congressman has admitted that his actions were personal flaws and apologized to his wife, his family, his constituents, and the media.  However, those in New York City don’t think his teary mea culpa was sincere.  Nearly two-thirds of New York City residents — 64% — report Weiner apologized only because he got caught while 24% think he is truly sorry.  12% are unsure.

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner Resignation?

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner 2013 NYC Mayoralty?

Table: Views on Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Actions

Table: Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Apology

Racy Online Rendezvous: The Exception or the Rule?

While a majority of New York City residents — 54% — believe sending lewd photos over the Internet is unusual practice for politicians, a notable 30% of New Yorkers think it is common practice.  16% are unsure.

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Common Practice by Politicians?

Does the Internet Ruin Lives? Internet Users Don’t Regret Behavior, but View Lewd Photo Exchange as Cheating

Most Internet users don’t have any regrets when it comes to their own online behavior.  83% say they have not said or sent anything over the Internet that they regret while 17% have.

Congressman Anthony Weiner admitted yesterday that he exchanged lewd photos and engaged in other provocative activities with women other than his wife.  Do New York City residents consider that to be cheating?  Six in ten — 60% — think it does constitute infidelity.  About one-third — 32% — says it does not, and 7% are unsure.

If residents discovered their partner engaged in this type of behavior, half would hold a grudge. In fact, 50% report they would not forgive their partner if he or she sent sexually charged photos of themselves to someone over the Internet while 33% would forgive them.  17% are unsure.

Women are less likely than men to forgive these indiscretions.  A majority of women — 54% — would not forgive their partner while 27% would.  This compares with 45% of men who wouldn’t let go of the incident while 40% would move past it and forgive their partner.

So, overall, does social media, like Facebook, do more harm than good, or does it do more good than harm?  A majority — 54% — believe it is hurtful to relationships while 19% say it makes personal connections better.  More than one in four New York City residents — 27% — are unsure.

Table: Personal Online Practices

Table: Is Sending Lewd Photos Over the Internet Cheating?

Table: Forgive Partner for Engaging in Inappropriate Online Behavior?

Table: Social Media: More Good Than Harm or More Harm Than Good?

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/1: The 2013 Democratic Field for NYC Mayor: No Clear Candidate

The pool of potential 2013 Democratic mayoral candidates is wide, but does anyone stand out in the minds of voters?  Not yet.  According to this NY1-Marist Poll, 18% of Democratic voters citywide say, if the primary were held today, they would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson takes 15%.  Comptroller John Liu receives 13% of the Democratic vote as does City Council Speaker Christine Quinn.  Nine percent of Democrats say they would support Public Advocate Bill de Blasio while 4% would back Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.  A notable 27% are undecided.

Click Here for Complete April 1, 2011 NYC NY1-Marist Poll Release and Tables

There has been little movement on this question since Marist last reported it in October.  At that time, 21% supported Weiner, 16% backed Thompson, and 10% threw their support behind Liu.   Quinn and de Blasio received the support of 9% and 8%, respectively, while 4% supported Stringer at the time.  32% were undecided.

“With no clear front-runner and a large number of undecided voters, this contest is likely to attract a crowd of candidates,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  ”This is not unusual for an ‘open’ seat.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Just Don’t Do It, Spitz!

There’s one possible candidate who many voters definitely don’t want to see throw his hat into the 2013 mayoralty ring.  62% of registered voters in New York City say they would prefer former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer not run for mayor.  29%, however, say he should.  10% are unsure.

When Marist last asked this question in October, similar proportions of voters held these views.  62% of voters did not want Spitzer to make a bid for mayor while 24% did.  14%, at the time, were unsure.

Spitzer can’t even gain traction in his own party.  More than six in ten Democratic voters — 62% — do not want him to seek the mayoralty while 29% do.  Nine percent are unsure.  In Marist’s previous survey, similar proportions of Democrats citywide held these views.

Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid
Table: Spitzer/NYC Mayoralty Bid Over Time

NY1-Marist Poll Methodology

4/13: Campaign 2013: No Clear Democratic Front-runner in NYC Mayoralty

Three years is a lifetime in politics, but if the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor were held today, 18% of registered Democrats would support Congressman Anthony Weiner.  Former Comptroller Bill Thompson follows closely behind with 15% of the vote.  And, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn receives the support of 12%.  10% of the city’s Democrats report they would back Public Advocate Bill de Blasio. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. and Comptroller John Liu each garners 9% of the vote. More than a quarter of New York City Democrats — 27% — are undecided.

“There are plenty of potential candidates for 2013, but no clear front-runner,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “With a long way to go, it’s not surprising that ‘undecided’ best reflects the outlook of Democratic voters at this time.”

Table: 2013 Democratic Primary for Mayor

Click Here for Complete April 13, 2010 NYC Poll Release and Tables

The Kelly Question

What if New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly decided to run as the Republican candidate for mayor?  How would he fare against the Democrats’ top contenders?

When pitted against Congressman Anthony Weiner, Weiner receives a majority of registered voters in New York City — 52% — to Kelly’s 33%.  15% are unsure.

New York’s top cop does better when matched up against City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and former Comptroller Bill Thompson.  In the hypothetical contest against Quinn, she receives 45% of the vote to Kelly’s 37%.  18% are undecided.

And, Kelly receives a similar proportion of the vote when he and Thompson face off.  Here, 45% of voters citywide say they would support Thompson while 36% would back Kelly.  19% are unsure.

Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Weiner
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Quinn
Table: 2013 Mayor’s Race — Kelly/Thompson

Marist Poll Methodology

NYC 2005 Democratic Primary Race for Mayor

Fernando Ferrer is narrowly ahead in the Democratic primary for mayor: Former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer narrowly leads his closest opponent Congressman Anthony Weiner by six points among Democrats likely to vote in tomorrow’s primary for mayor. Ferrer receives the support of 35% of likely Democratic voters compared with 29% for Weiner. Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Council Speaker Gifford Miller trail with 14% each. 8% of likely Democratic voters are undecided. When undecided likely Democratic voters who lean toward a candidate are included in the results, Fernando Ferrer receives 36%, Anthony Weiner has 29%, C. Virginia Fields has 16%, and Gifford Miller receives 15%. Only 4% of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.

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NYC 2005 Democratic Primary Race for Mayor

Congressman Weiner takes command of second place: Congressman Anthony Weiner has surged ahead of Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields to take sole possession of second place in next Tuesday’s Democratic primary. Although former Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer still leads the field, he has not gained much ground towards the 40% needed to avoid a runoff. Among registered voters, Fernando Ferrer receives 34% compared with 27% for Anthony Weiner. Gifford Miller follows with 14%, and C. Virginia Fields has 13%. 12% of registered Democrats remain undecided.

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